Tuesday, September 30, 2008

Stock Market. . . .

. . . .crash have you down? Find solace because you are having a better week than former UK starting strong safety Ashton Cobb. First, Rich Brooks announced last Wednesday that Cobb had been replaced as a starter by Freshman Matt Lentz. Come Saturday, Cobb was not in uniform, due to an arrest for the alleged terroristic threatening of an old girlfriend. Reports about the threats aren't flattering. Based on the timing (and, frankly, the way Cobb looked against MTSU), it appears the demotion and arrest were unrelated. Unless the whole thing turns out to be fabricated, it is unlikely Cobb will wear a UK uniform again.

Cobb's absence creates additional depth problems for the Wildcats defense going into the Alabama game. As anyone bothering to read this well knows, UK is already minus starting linebacker Micah Johnson and key reserve DT Ricky Lumpkin. Depth, especially up the middle, is going to be an issue as the Tide will line up play after play and simply try to impose their will on the Cats.

I'd feel a lot better about our chances for an upset, or at least of keeping the game close, if we were healthy.

Monday, September 29, 2008

Week 5 Bowl Projections

Here is a "without comment" survey of this week's UK bowl projections from around cyberspace, along with what should be the first of several weekly projections from yours truly for the entire SEC.

ESPN.com's Mark Schlabach

Music City Bowl v. Clemson


ESPN.com's Bruce Feldman

Papajohns.com Bowl v. Pitt


Scout.com

Liberty Bowl v. Tulsa


CBS Sportsline

Pizza Web Site Bowl v. Cincinnati


NBC Sports

Music City v. Maryland


Here are my current Bowl Projections for the SEC, based on play to date and the teams' schedules going forward. I recognize that some teams that are playing well may fade and some may improve. In other words, yes I concede that Tennessee might pull ahead of Vandy and/or UK in the pecking order. By the way, I did not consult other Internet picks before doing this.

National Championship

LSU (Almost a coin flip with Alabama at this point. Deciding factor is that Alabama goes to LSU this year.)

Sugar

Alabama

Capital One

Georgia (preference here could go to Florida, with UGA heading to Outback)

Cotton

Auburn

Outback

Florida

Chick-Fil-A

Vandy (If the records are close or identical, Ole Miss may edge Vandy for this spot. They'll travel better.)

Liberty

Ole Miss

Music City

UK (Liberty and Music City pick simultaneously in consultation with league office. This arrangement makes far more sense geographically.)

Independence

South Carolina (October 11th could tell the tale of who falls to here. By the way, this game just got moved to 12:30, which is not good news for the home team.)

Papajohns.com

Tennessee (If UT gets to seven wins, it will assuredly go higher. They have their work cut out for them between now and then.)


Thursday, September 25, 2008

Western

WKU's season thus far is emblematic of its position straddling two worlds. As many know, the team recently made the leap from 1AA to 1A. Not yet a full fledged member of the Sun Belt, Western plays as an Independent this year. Their 2-2 record is composed of two blowout wins over 1-AA teams and two bad losses to BCS conference opponents. Last week's 41-7 loss to Alabama isn't a blight on the season. The Hilltoppers played the Tide closer than Arkansas, after all. Their first week loss to Indiana now looks worse in retrospect, what with the Hoosiers getting spanked by Ball State at home last week.

For motivation, the Cats ought to bear this in mind; Western won at Middle Tennessee last year.

Quarterback K.J. Black will lead the Hilltoppers into Commonwealth. He beat out last year's starter, David Wolke, in spring practice, only to go down to injury in the EKU game. Wolke has started the last two games, but even after beating Murray 50-9, he will hand the reins back to Black on Saturday.

Western has too many Central Kentucky natives on the roster to mention them all. Most notably, Lexington Christian's Tyrell Hayden starts at tailback. Hayden had a monster year as a sophomore in 2007, carrying for 1137 yards and 10 TDs. Hayden has not had the same success this year, with 42 rushes for 131 yards. Seth Tamme, Jacob's little brother, and Clark Jeter, a former Henry Clay standout, are Wide Receivers. Neither has caught a pass this year.

I may write more in this tomorrow or Saturday, but there is one key to the game so critical that it dwarfs all other issues. UK must establish a running game. Our line and running backs have looked like the Keystone Cops this year and things are going to get far tougher, for good, in a week. We need confidence, we need to find a go-to guy and most of all, we need to win this game. If we have to rely entirely on the pass, I expect another nip and tuck affair. If this game is close, I'll go into the SEC season with real doubts about winning another game.

Let's hope that isn't the case.

Tuesday, September 23, 2008

Week 4 Bowl Projections

The College Football Season is mature enough that I can start the annual ritual of surveying the pundits' bowl projection for where UK might end up. Of course, this is all art and no science at this point in the season. Doing this correctly would require these guys to predict the outcome of almost every major college game for the rest of the year. So take it all with a grain of salt.

ESPN's Mark Schlabach has UK in the dreaded Shreveport hole, playing Kansas State, which was just dismantled by Louisville, in the Independence Bowl on December 28th. The thought of trying to convince my wife that this would be a fun trip turns my stomach.

His ESPN colleague, Bruce Feldman, has us in the Papajohns.com Bowl against Pitt. Hey, Birmingham isn't exactly Tampa, but at least I can drive there. Reportedly, this bowl must select the lowest ranked eligible SEC team. I take that to mean that the Independance Bowl, which previously picked last, will get a clear priority. In other words, a school that falls to Shreveport and is picked to go there cannot opt for Birmingham instead. I'll break down how all the tie-ins work in a later post. Like when UK gets that sixth win.

Both ESPN guys have Ole Miss going to a better bowl. Am I missing something?

Scout.com has us playing Tulsa in the Liberty Bowl on January 2. This is a good game on par with the Music City. It also falls on a Friday at 5pm. Ideal road trip. Beale Street, holiday weekend, the only work being missed is a Friday where no work will get done anyway whether you're there or not. (Incidentally, my office is open that day, which will result in nearly all lawyers taking the day off and the staff being totally unproductive because no one is there to generate work. This simultaneously defeats the purpose of being open, and leaves the staff resenting us in the process.) The thought of the Liberty Bowl has me geeked up to no end, but I am instantly brought back down to earth by the prediction of . . .

. . . CBS, which has Troy taking the last SEC spot in the Pizza Web Site Bowl and UK going nowhere, based on an a belief that not enough SEC teams will be bowl eligible. So basically, the folks at CBS think we are going 5-7. CBS has 1-3 Mississippi State grabbing the last eligible spot in the Independence Bowl. Dude, they are 1-3. Did I mention that they lost to Louisiana Tech?

All in all, these picks span the acceptable gamut of what could happen. It is hard to picture UK breaking into the Cotton, Outback, Chick-Fil-A trio or being invited back to Nashville for the proverbial third slice of pie (though those folks should want us back). That leaves Memphis, Shreveport, Birmingham or bust.

Did I mention we need to win this game Saturday?

Monday, September 22, 2008

SEC Roundup

Going into the fifth full weekend of the football season, the SEC is shaping up as the continental divide of college football. It is a conference with three of the top five teams in the nation, four in the Top 10 and a whopping six (including Vandy!) in the Top 25. There are also several teams that are struggling. Sitting in the middle is UK, unbeaten but unloved (on a national scale at least).
Here is the rundown of the haves and have nots in the SEC.

Haves:

LSU-Obviously sitting pretty at #5 with a tough road game at Auburn out of the way. The rest of the schedule is difficult but doable, with the potential season maker a tough tilt at Florida on October 11th. The Tigers could lose that game and still make the SEC championship, but also have to get past Alabama and Georgia at home. Its going to be an exciting month and a half for Tiger fans.

Alabama- Nick Saban has the Tide sitting sweet at 4-0, including a real statement to open the year over Clemson in Atlanta, and a 49-14 drubbing of Arkansas. The biggest test of the season comes this weekend at Georgia. Pull an upset, and Saban is the talk of college football, having the Tide back a year ahead of schedule. The Tide also has the aforementioned trip to LSU. Right now, I'd say advantage: LSU. If these teams are tied in the SEC West race going into the last week of the season, LSU is heading to Arkansas, while will Alabama will head to the Iron Bowl to play. . .

Auburn- The only conference "have" with a loss, Auburn showed me something on Saturday. Auburn lacks a signature win but has a favorable schedule in the coming weeks. The Tigers could easily enter their home date with Georgia on November 15th at 9-1. There is only one top 25 opponent in the interim, and its Vandy. A game at West Virginia also lurks. That doesn't look like quite the test it did when the game was scheduled.

(I am through 3 teams and have come up with seven must see games left in the regular season. Is there really a debate about the best conference in America?)

Florida- The Gators look bored off to a 3-0 start. Their SEC West schedule is favorable, with the only tough game, LSU, being at home. Florida does have to travel to Vandy, where their fans will probably outnumber those of the Commodores. Of course, the game that shall remain nameless is scheduled for November 1, with the winner the clear SEC East favorite pitting the Urban Meyer's club against. . .

Georgia- which has looked solid if unspectacular getting out to 4-0. We'll find out how good Georgia really is this weekend when Alabama comes to town. After that, their season hinges on what has to be the toughest back to back games for any college team this year. The Bulldogs will visit LSU on October 25, and follow that up with the game that shall remain nameless in Jacksonville on November 1.

If one of these teams gets through these schedules without a loss and wins the SEC Championship game, shouldn't it be crowned right then? Get this: Every team on this list has to play a current top 5 team on the road, with the exception of Florida, which has to play the highest ranked team, Georgia, at a neutral site.

Haves (honorable mention division):

Vandy- Vandy is having a great season, but cannot be put in the same category as these heavyweights. I may eat those words by the end of the year. Empirically, though, Vandy still has to play four teams ranked ahead of them (including a non-conference game against Wake) as well as Kentucky on the road. A bowl eligible, winning season looks more than likely. Anything above that is gravy.

UK- It would be totally unfair to label a team that hasn't lost a game a "have not". I cannot win by saying much more than that. Either I sound like a pessimist or I make a case that we are better than all of the below teams and buy myself a visit from the Karma Monster later. Not going to do it.

Have Nots :
South Carolina- USC is cautiously placed here. They are 2-2, having lost to Vandy on the road and having given Georgia a run for its money. The 34-0 win against NC State was not all that impressive if you watched it. Both teams looked awful until the Wolfpack decided to give the game away and the Old Ball Coach ran up the score. Still, could this team come into Commonwealth and beat the Cats? Hell yes. Particularly without some healthy high ankles.

Tennessee- UCLA now looks like a D2 team, and as a big fan of that program, I am still mystified as to how UT lost that game at the Rose Bowl. The Vols did not compete against Florida. Not a good sign. They are either going to rally around their coach in the coming weeks (they have to go to both Auburn and Georgia), or UT may be in its way to a losing record. That is a pink slip for Phil Fulmer.

Arkansas- is a couple of plays from being 0-3, with losses to Louisiana Monroe and Western Illinois. Still, as UK well knows, the key is to get the W. The Razorbacks still have to play Texas, LSU, Florida and Auburn. Like Kentucky, they have several swing games that will determine whether they get bowl eligible. I like our chances better. Ooops. Oh well.

Ole Miss- The Rebels are 2-2 without any tough conference games out of the way. The good news is the losses were both to ranked, undefeated teams. The bad news is they haven't beaten anyone. Houston Nutt's team would have to beat every non-top 25 opponent left on the schedule to go 6-6. Not likely.

Mississippi State- Many predicted that this would be a breakout year for Sylvester Croom's squad. Instead, they have taken a step back. The Bulldogs took a beating at Georgia Tech and already boast a loss to Louisiana Tech in the season's first week. The saving grace for MSU is that they have the easiest schedule left in the SEC. The Bulldogs do not have to play Florida or Georgia, and have Auburn out of the way. Still, dates at LSU and Alabama are sure losses and MSU will really have to turn it around to get bowl eligible this year. With Vandy playing the way it is and my uncertainty about how good or bad the Gamecocks are, the Cats trip to Starkville is starting to look like a must win game.

Wow. That was fun but more work than I predicted. More Cat specific content later in the week.

Thursday, September 18, 2008

Pat White. . .

. . has been WVU's quarterback for at least 8 years. He has broken the record of Brian Evans, who played Small Forward for IU for 7 years.

Wednesday, September 17, 2008

First Quarter

A quarter of the way through the regular season, this team is about as advertised. In fact, with the dual (and dueling) exceptions of the unbelievable defensive performance against Louisville and the general inability to establish a running game, I am surprised by little. Before the season, most guessed them finishing anywhere from 4-8 to 7-5, with a regression to the mean. Three games into the season, little has changed, except that we have managed to win a game most thought would be a coin flip, and an opponent once thought to supply a safe win has looked better than us (Vandy). Seems every positive is balanced out by a negative.

Plus: Mike Hartline seems to have settled in. He has yet to throw an interception.
Minus: A team billed as having four solid tailbacks does not appear to have one who is a legitimate SEC starter. Poor blocking aside, a good running back either makes a guy miss or breaks a tackle now and again. That isn't happening for anyone, even my man Derrick Locke.

Plus: Tim Mastay has been a godsend, booming punts and kickoffs, and allowing us many field position luxuries.
Minus: Lonas Seiber has been so shaky that his position is now wide open.

Plus: In terms of scoring defense, the Cats have been money, giving up only 6.3 points a game.
Minus: MTSU threw for 353 yards. It isn't the last spread offense the Cats will see

Plus: Hartline has had time to pass, even against Louisville.
Minus: The Cats run blocking has been pitiful. A particularly bad sign when a teams intends to rely on its quarterback to simply manage a game.

Plus: The Cats have withstood an injury to their best offensive lineman, who should be back by the next game.
Minus: Three key players, including two who are among the 10 most important on the team, are out indefinately with high ankle sprains. (While we are here, I am surprised more is not being made of losing Micah Johnson and Randall Cobb in the same half. I think the Johnson loss is worse than the casual fan realizes)

Plus: Dicky Lyons has been a consistant safety blanket.
Minus: The rest of the receivers have been hard to watch at times.

Plus: The Cats got a boost from Cobb, who might be the game changer who allows us the chance to pull a big upset or two over the next four years.
Minus: Senior leadership on the team seems far less evident than in years past. Certainly a big switch from 2007.

I still think this team will finish 6-6, with the most likely victories to come against Western, Arkansas and Vandy (who I still say we manage to beat at Commonwealth). I won't count out the USC or Mississippi State games, but would certainly not bet them straight up if asked to do so today. A lot of football to be played.

UK-WKU Tickets

I am looking for six tickets for the UK-WKU game (either together, in pairs or 4 and 2), as well as a parking pass, if anyone has any leads.
Posting this on my blog is admittedly a shot in the dark, since no one outside of Dave Z. and my immediate family read it, and Z is one of the people I need the tickets for.

Sunday, September 14, 2008

Middle Tennessee Postgame

I have to keep this one short because I need to be working on this fine Sunday.

Last night I made a pact with the football gods as the fourth quarter began. I promised that if UK somehow won the game, that I would not complain about the performance for the rest of the night. Today, I don't feel much like complaining either. UK is 3-0, came from behind, and survived a game that they very well could have lost. Let's also not forget that but/for a called back touchdown and a terrible night from the field goal unit, we could have won this game by two touchdowns.

That said: if, with a minute and forty seconds left, a team with a six point lead has first and ten on its opponent's 17 and then comes within 18 inches of losing a game, questions have to be asked. Before Sieber lined up for the fateful field goal attempt, I turned to the woman next to me and, god is my witness, said, "this is a big mistake, there are too many things that can go wrong". As I will say repeatedly, I do not profess to know 1/100th as much as Rich Brooks does about football. But with the kind of night the team and Lonas were having, I think this was the wrong call. I will also acknowledge that Rich is in a tough spot. Had we run the ball up the middle on that play, then had MTSU found some way to score (which I still submit would have been next to impossible), then the stadium would have been filled with people saying "if Brooks would have just kicked the field goal, we would have won". The bottom line is if we execute the field goal correctly, the whole discussion is moot.

Watching the blocked field goal almost run back for a loss (UT in 2007) followed up by the hail mary (duh) allowed me to relive my two least favorite Commonwealth Stadium moments in the span of about 45 seconds. The only thing that could have made it worse was if Marcus McClinton would have fumbled the ball back during his fourth quarter interception return.

Micah Johnson was tearing up the field when he got hurt. I've heard nothing more than that he Cobb and Rickey Lumpkin have high ankle sprains. Here is hoping that the sprains aren't severe, because a bad one of those can derail the better part of a season.

Our offense last night was reminiscent of the early Brooks years. Runs up the middle and ineffective screen passes. Hartline looked best throwing crossing routes downfield. I thought he played well. His numbers would be better if he had more sure handed receivers.

Based on comments made by the coaches, I think UK is really missing out on the leaders it had last year. This year's team seems less focused.

More later in the week.

Saturday, September 13, 2008

Maryland . . .

is taking it to #23 Cal right now, 21-6 in the third quarter. On this very computer, not four days ago I declared Maryland a "mess", and downplayed Middle Tennessee's win against them. Oh well.
The funny thing is that I am rooting for Cal to come back and win, as something that attenuated is going to help me feel more comfortable with the matchup for UK tonight.

Gameday

September 13th brings another game that the Cats should win, though MTSU should present a much bigger challenge than Norfolk State did. The Cats will go with a platoon system at Quarterback, which I agree is the right thing to do at this stage. Once Brooks hands the keys over to Cobb, there isn't much good in turning back. So the next two weeks should be a wait and see period.
I am really rooting for Mike Hartline today. The bare truth is that he hasn't been effective this year. His primary positive is that he has not turned the ball over all season. While that is important, that is only going to take a team that has struggled to run the football so far. Platooning with Cobb hamstrings him in that Cobb will probably not play much wideout. Hartline loses out on a playmaker in the passing and running games. If Hartline cannot complete passes and move the chains, the natives are going to get very restless, and tonight might not be a fun one at Commonwealth. Initially, at least, the 95% of fans that did not boo Hartline last week will actually cheer for him and drown out any boo birds. If things go way south, all bets will be off. I hate to see Hartline, Brooks or the fans in that situation.

Aside from psychological concerns, this is a much better team with an effective Hartline at QB. To my eye, Randall Cobb is a special athlete. As long as he is one step away from taking over the offense, he is not going to play much at other positions or as a returner. We need him on the field every down, one way or another. Though Cobb has game changing talent, my gut tells me that Brooks will not ultimately go with him as a full time starting QB. He is, after all, a 5'10" true freshman playing in the SEC.

On the other hand, if Cobb plays the next two games like he did against Norfolk, without the turnovers, a star may truly be born and Brooks will be faced with little choice.

UK's linebackers should have a test today. With MTSU running the spread, our D-Line can only get off if the quick routes are not open. If we can handle that, it will probably be a very long night for Joe Craddock and Co. In the words of Clubber Lang, I predict pain.

Should be interesting. UK by 14. How it all plays out is anyone's guess, though I do not expect much scoring from the Blue Raiders.

I'll be in the Blue Lot today, with the kids, which always makes it interesting.

2008 UK Rap?

If you click through all the links on this post it might take you a couple of minutes, so hopefully you aren't catching this at work.
Last season UK Football got its signature Youtube video with the "Steve Johnson Freestyle Rap"
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bzQMT5BWXlU

I'd argue that the "rap" was really more of a spoken word thing, but whatever. The video got some viral legs and spawned a great catch phrase that I glommed onto right away. In fact, I was amazed to watch the video one week and then see a group of guys in the Blue Lot with both T-Shirts and signage bearing, "We gonna get it poppin like Joker from way back." To me the fowarding of the video and this reaction to it stood as one sign that 2007 was different, and that the program had turned the corner. I realize this may sound silly, but still believe it to be true.

Since then, I've run across a freestyle rap by Malcolm Kelly of Oklahoma, also made in 2007, that has been laid over a ridiculously good beat. (By the way, Malcolm takes some small liberties that I don't think would go over well in Rich Brooks' locker room). Bear with the first 25 seconds of the video, as they are pertinent to the story.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HE6qX49asVA&feature=related

This has me jonesing for a souped up 2008 UK rap, or maybe just Stevie's joint with some more arrangement. Can someone with these kinds of skills get this done for me? By the way, if you don't think the guy in the beginning of the video is legit, check this out, in fact, I think this beat or some other by this guy (who is, by legend at least, a Murray State student) would be perfect:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=smE-uIljiGo&feature=user

And yes, I know I am 37 and white.

Thursday, September 11, 2008

Comments

I have now fixed the blog so that you do not have to be a registered user to comment. I forgot to change the default when I set the blog up.

Wednesday, September 10, 2008

Middle Tennessee State

As most are aware, Middle Tennessee beat Maryland 24-14 last week. That it beat a BCS team should not, in and of itself, be a cause for concern. Maryland is a mess, the ACC is a mess, and Middle Tennessee has already lost a home game in its own conference; Troy, 31-17. Middle Tennessee conned Maryland into coming to Murfreesboro for a game. Nice scheduling, guys. So Saturday at Commonwealth will be its first test on the road. MTSU, you may remember, hung 42 points on then #8 Louisville a year ago. It also lost narrowly to Virginia, 23-21.

Chris Hawkins, a reserve offensive lineman, is a Lexintonian and former all-city and all-state player from Henry Clay. According to his web bio, Chris majors in Concrete Industry Management, which may or may not have been Tony Soprano's major at Rutgers. I kid. Looks like Chris is hurt and missed the Maryland game. He is #75. Look out for him.

Coach Rick Stockstill is in his second year and is no stranger to the SEC, having served as an assistant for Lou Holtz at South Carolina. He also grew up in Georgetown, Ky.

Joe Craddock, their QB, had a very good game against Maryland and has been very effective. There are no other real statistical standouts for the Blue Raiders.

Tuesday, September 9, 2008

Unrest

Rich Brooks has taken to making remarks about Kentucky Football fans, seemingly at every opportunity. From this weekend's complaints about booing Hartline (justified, in my opinion) to jabs about picking his starting running back based on the call-in show callers. Rich may want to keep a couple things in mind.
One, the fact that his program is engendering this much discussion is a great thing. It is because he has done a good job. People care. That is what pays his salary, gets him the recruiting budget he wants, etc. There is a flip side to people caring, though. When people care about something, they tend to have an opinion about it. He can ask anyone who has ever coached basketball here about that. Do I know more about the football team than Rich Brooks? Of course not. But that doesn't mean I don't have the right to voice my opinion about it. Do the people calling in to the talk shows really think he cares what they think? I hope not, and I hope that he doesn't. But to make fun of these people is to ignore a second, more important, truth.
While this may sound harsh, here it is; without the Kentucky football program, even diehard morons like me will move on, spend more time with our families, work harder, start collecting coins, go to petting zoos, something. The converse is not true. Because without the fans, there is no program.

Sunday, September 7, 2008

Thoughts from UK-Norfolk State

* My night got off to a rocky start when I attempted to access the Orange Lot from Tates Creek. Big mistake. The cops routed us through the Greg Page apartments and back onto Nicholasville. This took about 40 minutes and left us with a little over an hour to tailgate. Our tailgate spot made up for it. Our neighbors in the lot had a 50 inch plasma hooked up, and some great tunes cranking.

*Obviously, the story of the evening was Randall Cobb. After two games, it seems clear that to score enough points to win in the SEC, we won't be able to rely on a conventional offense. Breaking out our version of Antwaan Randle-El (perfet comparison, no?) seems like the ticket. Rich Brooks is rightfully reserving judgment on his quarterback situation. But the facts are thus: As of the moment Cobb took over the offense yesterday, Kentucky had scored one offensive touchdown all season. On a drive that started on the Louisville 2 yard line. One quarter later, that number had quadrupled.

*Setting aside what happened in the fourth quarter, when NSU's defense had to be exhausted, our running game was scary bad. I don't think Tony Dixon is the answer. The blocking has not been the best, but Tony just doesn't seem to have the knack for running to daylight. Derrick Locke has not looked as good as he did as a Freshman until he busted the 68 yarder. I still believe he is our best runner.

*I hated the booing last night when Hartline came in, but disagree with how it is being characterized. I don't think that people were booing Hartline, rather they were booing the coaches decision to put him back in. This distinction is probably little comfort to Hartline. A good rule of thumb might be to not to boo your players or your coach when they've won two games by a combined score of 65-5. Ridiculous.

*Cobb sounded like a great kid in his post game interview. He praised his teammates (especially Hartline), admitted his own mistakes, and came to Hartline's defense with an unsolicited comment about the fans' reaction. This kid gets it. While I'm on the topic, Hartline seems like a good guy too. He was the first guy to congratulate Cobb after the first scoring drive.

* Trevard Lindley got his seventh career pick last night. UK's all time interceptions leader for a career is Darryl Bishop, with 14. If Trevard does not go pro this year, the record is in play.

Saturday, September 6, 2008

Question

There is no line on this game in Vegas. Is every 1A v. 1AA game off the board? Please comment if you have thoughts.

The unofficial ALS line is UK -20.5

UK-NSU Gameday

With what is supposed to be a guarantee game on the slate today, its time to play best case/worst case.

Best case: UK controls the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. We break off a couple of long runs, get a comfortable lead, and try some things in the passing game. Hartline gets comfortable with some long range throws and continues to avoid mistakes. Without showing too much of the playbook, Joker finds a way to get Randall Cobb the ball in space, Cobb leads a successful series as QB some time in the second quarter. NSU never gets any traction against the defense.

Worst case: The Cats come out flat and have a costly turnover early. NSU quarterback Dennis Brown (who was a starter at UCONN not long ago) is able to string first downs together by getting outside of the pocket and running. Offense cannot produce and the air starts getting sucked out of the stadium. The game is within 6 points mid-way through the fourth quarter. Disaster strikes. My kids end up with a much nicer spring break trip because Dad didn't raid the vacation fund to go to Birmingham or Memphis in December.

Reality will probably be somewhere in the middle. It is hard, however, to picture UK coughing this one up.

I'll be in the Orange Lot today, soaking it all in. Its the Home Opener, ba-by. Have fun and be safe.

Thursday, September 4, 2008

Garry Williams . . .

. . .UK's best offensive lineman, is reportedly out for 2-3 weeks after having surgery this morning on a torn medial collateral ligament.

If you read this blog on a regular basis or get to know me as a person you will learn I am a pessimist. So, this report gives me pause and to me begs two questions. One, how well is a person, albeit a 22 year old trained athlete, really able to recover from a torn ligament and a surgery in 2-3 weeks? Whether he'll be the same this season has to be open to debate.

Secondly, like many Cats fans, I'd make an even money bet that we will enter the October 4th game at Alabama 4-0, but concede that a loss in the interim is more than plausible. How much does a bad loss to an already shaky unit add to the pucker factor at Commonwealth in September? It should.

The saving grace to losing a Left Tackle is we aren't expected to rely heavily on the downfield pass. Given the existing limitations of our offense, losing an starting LT (who protects a right-handed Quarterback's blindside) isn't as significant as it would be for some teams.

Tuesday, September 2, 2008

Norfolk State

Quick facts about next week's opponent, Norfolk State. These guys play in the Division 1-AA MEAC (Think Florida A&M and Howard) and were 8-3 least year. Their only FBS (I hate that term) foe in 2007 was Rutgers, who beat them 59-0. They appear to schedule one high division one team a year.
Last week the Spartans played Virginia State in front of a home crowd of about 17,000 and won easily, 47-7. VSU, it should be noted, is D2.
Norfolk is breaking in a new starting quarterback and also lost a 1000 yard rusher off last year's team. DeAngelo Branch, a sophomore from Norfolk, VA ran for 92 yards and three scores last week.
Cool fact: Head coach Pete Adrian once served as defensive coordinator for the Chicago Enforcers of the XFL

2007 Cats In The Pros

As most have seen over the wire the last few days, Andre Woodson was cut by the Giants and then resigned to their practice squad a day later. The Giants kept only two QBs on their regular roster, essentially making Andre a poorly paid third string quarterback. It is a long climb from there, but I have to think someone with his size and arm strength will get a shot eventually.

Other UK news on the final cut day was much better. Steve Johnson made the Bills as a sixth receiver. Lacking the preseason name recognition of some of our other offensive stars last year, Stevie was overlooked to some extent. He deserves this. Wesley Woodyard made the Broncos as an undrafted free agent. I caught him for several series in their exhibition last week. He looks like he more than belongs. Wesley will be an NFL starter, or maybe a Pro Bowl special teams player one day. He can play football, and any good football person who saw him play in college should have known he could play on any level.

I'd love to see an NFL GM one day who decided, "Yes, I am going to take size and speed into account when drafting players, but my overarching question will always be, did this guy get it done in college?". I'd just like to see what would happen to a team that stripped all the draft machinery away and stayed true to that principal.

Seriously, how does a first team All-SEC linebacker go undrafted?

Jacob Tamme and Kennon Burton are safely on the rosters of the Colts and Rams, respectively.

Please comment if I am leaving anyone out.

Monday, September 1, 2008

UK-U of L

We'll start with my impressions of UK's 27-2 drubbing of the Cards. I predicted early in the week that the Cats would need a defensive or special teams score to win. Though that didn't turn out to be entirely accurate, the thought was correct. I certainly did not expect a three hundred pounder like Myron Pryor to come up with a 70-plus yard TD. In all, the game unfolded more or less how I thought it might with one enormous exception. All the turnovers and the good fortune of turning them into scores.

*Hunter Cantwell didn't get much help from his receivers, but he looked nothing like a potential NFL quarterback. Aside from the turnovers, he telegraphed his throws and missed a ton of open guys. He doesn't throw a catchable ball. A couple of his throws were way harder than they needed to be, and his inexperienced receivers were too inept to compensate.

*David Jones slipped into the starting lineup when Paul Warford became academically ineligible. He is going to play opposite of stud Trevard Lindley all year. He is going to get picked on some. Jones played like an absolute man last night. Two breakups, including one athletic tip as the short man in a cover two. He was a blanket in man coverage.

*Lindley has made big play after big play in his UK career. It doesn't look like that is going to end any time soon. If he isn't a first team All-SEC corner, I want to see the two guys who are.

*Mike Hartline did exactly what I assume was asked of him yesterday. He didn't lose the game. Hartline played as if Rich Brooks was whispering in his ear as the plays unfolded. While that doesn't seem like a compliment, it is. Plenty of QBs are asked to manage a game and essentially to play not to lose. In the end, many have egos or mental makeups that won't allow them to do it.

*That said, Hartline's ball did not look good on the long routes. Of course, the conservative style won't be nearly enough against half the teams on the schedule. To be competitive in the tough games, we'll have to do more.

*As predicted, the offense looks different without all the playmakers from last year. We were spoiled with all of the timing routes, end zone fades thrown over the correct shoulder, leaping grabs and the like. You either have an offense like that or you don't. In 2008, we don't. We'll have to get it done another way.

*How? After one game it seems pretty simple. The ball is going to have to get into Randall Cobb's hands 10-15 times a game. He could be our version of Florida's Percey Hervin, running the ball from the slot 8-10 times a game, catching some screens, and taking a shot downfield. I'd also expect Phillips to install a package to use Cobb as a QB on a series or two.

*More later.

Intro

My obsession with University of Kentucky Football defies artful explanation. I've lived in Lexington for 15 years, having come here in 1994 for law school. I have a law degree from UK, but my alma mater is UCLA. The teams of both schools' have a place in my heart, especially the basketball teams (of course). I am happy when they win, sad when they lose, and generally interested. The same goes for the UCLA football team.
For some reason, the historically least successful of the four major programs is what I save my true love for. Last year, about mid-way through what had to be the most exciting 7-5 regular season in the history of college football, my obsession reached a fever pitch. By Thursday of most weeks, I had analyzed every SEC game for its impact on the Cats national ranking, SEC East standing and bowl outlook. By the end of October, I had booked hotel rooms in no less than 6 different possible bowl locations. My close friends who I also know to be UK football fans received two or three weekly e-mails about all things UK football.
Since last year I started a blog called "Scutch Speaks" which I rarely keep up with. In fact. I've probably posted on it no more than 10 times outside of a long weekend in March where I posted a three day running diary about convalescing from surgery, drinking Bud Light, and watching 72 hours of conference tournament basketball.
With the season starting, starting a blog exclusively about UK Football seemed to make sense. I'll write more and annoy my friends with random e-mails less. Everyone wins.
 
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