UK Football Fan

Swan Song

2011-01-12T09:36:00.004-05:00

I've been putting it off for a couple of days but it is time for UK Football Fan's final post. We'll make this a double column, looking at UK's bowl game, then turning the focus over to the season as a whole and the direction of the Wildcat program. Update: I wrote most of this column last night then learned this morning that Randall Cobb is planning to enter the NFL Draft.

This past weekend I travelled down to Birmingham with my 7 year old son, who just may be the biggest seven-year-old football fanatic in the country. This kid will occasionally say things to me like, "he is locking in on one receiver, and not looking for someone who is open" or "if Boise State had beaten Nevada, Arkansas might not have gone to the Sugar Bowl". I swear.

We met up in Nashville with my cousin, who'd flown out from Denver. By 6pm we were in Birmingham. Having lived for several years in neighboring Tuscaloosa, the only thing I remembered about Birmingham was its paper mill, and the consequent rotton eggs smell eminating onto the highway every time we drove through. Birmingham wasn't too bad. Pretty typical southern mid-sized town. The "Magic City" went out of its way to make people feel welcome. At least the local bars and restaurants did, with welcoming signs and BBVA Compass Bowl branding everywhere. Streets were easily navigated. There were no crowds.

Unfortunaely, that is where the party ended. The Bowl experience itself could not have been more second rate. Legion Field is a pit. The parking lot had abandoned basketball courts in it, covered with gravel but with baskets still up. The stadium was in obvious disrepair (the opper deck on one side has been condemned and was torn down), concessions were out of the 70s and there was not a hint of modernity to any of the amenities.

The game itself was marred by nearly inaudible Referree-PA connection, no PA music whatsoever and of course a spartan crowd. By far the biggest problem, though, was a lack of instant replay in the stadium. For the first few minutes of the game, one end zone screen (tiny as it was) would show the ESPN feed while the other showed ads. Inexpicably, the two would switch on occasion, making it hard to know where to look. Late in the first quarter the ESPN feed went the way of the dodo, never to be seen again.

Of course all of this pissing and moaning on my part is hard to separate from the game itself. Given the stakes and the circumstances, this might have been the worst performance by a Kentucky team since we dropped one to Ohio back in 2004. Yeah, we got our asses kicked by Florida really bad a few times since then, but when is the last time your felt this let down by a Kentucky team? Basically six weeks to prepare and we showed up with no game plan, no fight and no ability to execute.

I owe an apology to Steve Ortmeyer. Maybe you weren't the problem all along. A fake handoff off of a fake punt. Really? Another blocked punt, a holding call on a return. The beat goes on and on. New defensive coordinator comes in. Does he not realize Pitt is going to try to run the ball down our throats? No game plan, no nothing. Just a putrid, sleepwalking performance. The biggest disappointment may have been only seeing Cobb touch the ball a handful of times in what is now said to be his last game.

Where does this leave us? At this point I think Joker has two years to move the program forward. Next year will have to be written off as a disaster. Without Matthews, Locke and presumably Cobb, the Cats will have fewer offensive weapons than in 2008, generally considered the low water mark on offense in the "New Kentucky" era. As for the triggerman, things look even bleaker. For all of Morgan Newton's merits, he is nothing like what was advertised coming in from high school. A supposed dual threat, Newton looks like he has trouble getting out of his own way while running. Never was that more apparent than on a crucial 4th and 1 in the 3rd where Newton appeared to count three Mississippi before running on a quarterback sneak when he literally needed to do nothing other than fall forward. That Ryan Mossakowski did not sniff the field in this game speaks volumes about where he must be as a quarterback. Nonetheless, the Cats need to have an open competition for QB1 next year because that person is going to have to carry the team. Sadly, whatever "it" is, Newton doesn't seem to have it.

The Defense should be somewhat improved, with Minter given a year to implement his schemes and added experience. Assuming Travathan and/or Winston Guy don't follow Cobb to the pros, we lose only Dequin Evans and Ricky Lumkin from the starting 11. The Cats will have to shore up their front 7 to have any chance to compete in the SEC next year. How they plan to do that with the talent on hand is anyone's guess.

All in all, I assume 2011 will be the year the bowl streak ends. The Louisville game will be a mighty challenge, and UK will probably be underdogs in 6-7 conference games (possible exceptions being @Vandy and a merciful home date with Ole Miss) . LSU joins the schedule and Auburn falls off, which as far as we're concerned is basically a wash. Six and six will be an accomplishment. I know this: No more BBVA Compass Bowls for UK Football Fan.

As you can tell from the tone here, I am not happy with the direction the program is going. The Cats looked like a poorly coached team a good portion of the year. Slow starts, silly penalties, guys (pun intended) way out of position in pass defense. When Steve Brown admitted that he didn't like to blitz because the team usually screwed it up, I knew something was wrong. Special teams remain a disaster, and we have two 4 star QBs entering their Junior years who aren't yet SEC starter calibur. Beyond coaching, I'm now convinced that UK is never going to devote the resources to the football program it needs to in order to be a top tier program. Part of that is lack of funding, part a lack of will, and part the albatross that is Kentucky Basketball. Finally, the loss of Cobb is a will zapping moment for this program. It isn't just the fact that he's leaving, it is that no one can come up with a decent reason why he shouldn't. (Parenthetically, I think this is Cobb's only move, he is doing the right thing, and I wish him nothing but the best)

So, am I giving up? Hell no. This is my team. I've spent some time over the last week thinking what it would be like to follow a good program that went to BCS Bowl, competed for conference championships and occasionally played for a national title. Could I just pick a team, say Texas, and decide that is my team? But we all know that isn't how this works. You have to come by these things orgaincally, and my love for UK Football is about as organic as it gets. I used to feel like there was something noble about following a team that you know is probably never going to get over the hump. But really it is a morally neutral thing to do. Sure, it is easier to root for a good team, but no one is forcing me not to. In fact, it is a kind of Zen. It just is.

As I've said, however, I am giving up UK Football Fan. My disappointment in this year is not a factor. The truth is, I have another writing project that has finally crystalized in my head. I didn't spend much time writing on the site this year, but whatever writing I do for fun is going to be put to what I hope will be better use over the next few months. Stay tuned. I'll maintain the UK Football Fan Facebook and Twitter accounts for occasional tidbits, but there will be no more columns. Thanks for reading.

Game Day

2011-01-08T09:45:00.002-05:00

January 8th feels like a good morning for the penultimate UK Football Fan blog post. I've enjoyed doing this for the past three years, though obviously my interest waned as this season went on and posts became increasingly rare. I've ended the UK football season, though, as I have the four previous seasons, traveling to a bowl game in a southern city. This season the bowl crew is a little pared down. My son and I made the trip with my cousin, Appleton, who flew in from Denver and met us in Nashville, where his sister lives.

Last night we got out on the town a bit with Cats fans, though it sounds like most people were in an area, Five Points South, which we never found. I guess I should say we found it, but what we found didn't seem like a real happening spot to hit the town.

However that may have happened, this morning the Cats have a game to play. By now the story of Pitt's coaching woes are well chronicled. The Panthers fired Dave Wannestadt after the regular season. Wannstadt inherited a BCS team in 2004, and never managed to get back. Pitt. hired Miami(OH) coach and former Notre Dame assistant Mike Heywood, only to fire him 17 days later after he allegedly grabbed and injured his baby-mama.

When "head football coach" and "mother of one of his children" are in the same news story, it usually isn't good.

Of course, UK was not without drama over the months and a half layoff. Mike Hartline will miss the final game of his career after an alcohol related arrest. Morgan Newton will take the reins today in what might conservatively be called the most important three hours of his life so far. He needs to show this team he can be the man next year after losing a quarterback battle many assumed he'd run away with this year. Seeing him play well would be important for my confidence in next year's team. I think you can take big blue nation's temperature by how Newton plays today.

All in all, this is about the most unrest I've seen in UK's fanbase since the 2006 LSU loss. I agree that this team underachieved. With the SEC East ripe for plucking, we took a step backwards. A good performance today could go a long way to leaving a good taste in people's mouths.

Well, this rambling post wouldn't be complete without mentioning that this is likely to be Randall Cobb's last game as a Cat. His career deserves its own post, but suffice to say that I will miss watching the best UK player of my lifetime and whatever NFL team ends up with him becomes my second favorite overnight.

If you are going to the game today, we'll be in setion 36, row 46. Wave hello if you get a chance.

Rough Weekend

2010-12-12T22:49:00.003-05:00

As I'm sure many of you noticed, I basically quit posting at about the ninth week of the season, with little more than SEC bowl related posts through the end of the year. There are were several reasons for this; increased use of Twitter/Facebook to post shorter updates, plans to close the site down after the season anyway and a general lack of hits and links. But the most compelling reason is that I've lost faith in the staff and the administration and their ability to give us a product worth writing about in the short and long term. This year's team was incredibly frustrating to watch. The problems I observe seem to be systematic rather than simply relating to individual players.

This weekend didn't do anything to make me feel better. As everyone reading this now knows, fifth year senior Mike Hartline pissed the last game of his career away in a fit of drunken belligerence. Joker's swift justice would indicate that he lent some credence to the allegations involving violence. I feel terrible for Hartline, whose star crossed career deserves its own post. Right now however, I feel worse for Joker, who is losing his grip on the reins of the Wildcat sled.

This week Joker let two assistants go and announced that he'd be bringing in a co-defensive coordinator to work alongside Steve Brown. The latter sounded like a way of pushing Brown out the door politely. I certainly hope so. If UK really told candidates it wanted someone to work alongside someone whose unit completely failed this year, they cut themselves off right at the knees.

Saturday hit, and word came via Twitter that Rick Minter and Steve Pardue (we'll get to them in a minute) were at practice in UK gear. We had apparently filled our two vacancies. At the same time Chip Cosby, Matt May and Brett Dawson were tweeting about the Minter/Pardue sightings, Larry Vaught (who was not at practice) was reporting that recently fired but highly respected former Miami Head Coach would come to UK as the DC. Though Shannon was reportedly contacted early in the week, it sounded to me like fan base appeasement. Truth is, Shannon was likely to land on his feet with a near million dollar gig and clearly UK isn't going to pay that for a coordinator. That this was actually going to happen was huge, and a sign that Joker had more juice than perhaps we realized.

This being Kentucky, Vaught later tweeted that his sources were wrong and that Minter (who is currently the linebacker's coach at Indiana State) would indeed become the DC. This news was bad enough, but it was only the tip of the bitter cold iceberg.

Urban Favre's mid-week decision to quit at Florida for the second year in a row provided good theatre for Cats fans. I was thrilled to have that evil bastard out of the SEC East, don't get me wrong. But I was giddy about the prospect Meyer would be replaced by the coach of one of UK perennial opponents. Louisville's Charlie Strong seemed like a possibility. Mississippi State's Dan Mullen, however, seemed like the logical choice. Louavull and MSU aren't just perennial opponents, they are swing opponents. Along with Vanderbilt (we'll get to them in a minute) and South Carolina, they form the set of schools we need to beat consistently if we ever want to get to "the next level". I'd love for Mississippi State or Louisville to lose their coach and have to start over.

On Saturday, the Gators got their man in Texas Defensive Coordinator and former Coach-in-waiting Will Muschamp. Many are questioning the hire. Not me. Muschamp is young, incredibly passionate and has an impeccable coaching pedigree. He is likely to bring in Major Applewhite as his OC. They'll outwork everyone on the field, own every living room and Florida will continue to be Florida. Mullen and Strong, evidently, will stay put. I'd guess that Mullen was induced to stay by more money and promises from MSU to continue to invest in their program. Not good news for the Cats, whose administration would not have done the same thing if Joker had been the hot commodity. Maybe I'm wrong about that, but we don't know because no one has tried to steal UK's Head Coach for a better job since Christ was a corporal.

Remember now, this all went down in one day. Rumor has it now that Shannon will replace Muschamp as the DC at Texas. Whether that happens remains to be seen. Right now all I see is speculation. But here is some more speculation. It is entirely possible that Shannon was ready to come to Kentucky as its coordinator but backed out when it became clear that Texas had the same vacancy. One could hardly blame Shannon, it is a much better job. Still, the thought that it might have gone down that way stings. How much better off would we be if Mullen bolted Mississippi State for Florida, and we had a DC who could recruit Florida like almost nobody else in college football?

Today added further insult to injury as some outlets are reporting that Vandy has hired Auburn Offensive Coordinator Gus Malzahn as its head guy (reports conflict as some say it isn't a done deal). I'm not as worried about Malzahn as I am what his hire represents. (After all, coaching genius and having Cam Newton running your offense can be easily confused). Vandy supposedly broke the bank and will pay Gus $3million per. If it is willing to pay that, and Malzahn is willing to come, it obviously intends to upgrade its program substantially. Keep in mind this is high tier SEC money, almost twice Joker's salary. Today ESPN's David Pollock observed via Twitter that while Malzahn will "succeed", success at Vandy is 2-3 SEC wins a year and a bowl trip. Great point. Here is another one: if Vandy can consistently win 2-3 SEC games a year, many of those wins are going to be against you know who.

All of which leads me to one conclusion. While the rest of the SEC is moving forward, we are standing still, at best. Rick Minter was indeed the linebacker coach at Indiana State this year. In fairness, has has also been a defensive coordinator at Notre Dame and South Carolina, as well as the head guy at Cincinnati for several years. He is I'm sure a fine coach. He is also a retread who is being rescued from the downside of a career. I know nothing about Pardue, other than that he was the head coach of UK feeder high school LaGrange (Ga.) for a number of years. He was probably due this shot with us.

Perhaps I'm making too big a deal out of a series of things that were almost completely outside of UK's control. But the truth is that this weekend leaves me feeling the way I often feel about UK Football. Even though we seem only inches away at times, they are inches we are destined never to get.

Final SEC Bowl Projections

2010-12-05T12:31:00.003-05:00

Here are my final SEC Bowl projections, based in part on Twitter and Internet chatter I gathered yesterday but without consultation with anyone else's final picks. Apparently, the Outback Bowl is going all mercenary and will disappointingly go with a crumbling Florida squad over at least 2 more qualified teams. This sends South Carolina (who deserved a better fate) to the Chick-Fil-A Bowl. The buzz is that the Gator will take 6-6 but surging UT in what can only be described as a New Year's Day gift. The big loser is Mississippi State, which will be rewarded for its best season in recent memory by a mundane trip to the Music City Bowl. If that rodgering doesn't send Dan Mullen into Miami's waiting arms, I don't know what will.
The other big loser in that scenario is our Cats and their beleaguered fanbase, who must now live with the knowledge that a win over a pitiful Tennessee squad probably would have put them in Florida (albeit Jacksonville) on New Year's Day. As it is, there will be no change in the Cats' destination.

National Championship
Auburn v. Oregon

Sugar
Arkansas v. Ohio State

Capital One
Alabama v. Michigan State

Cotton
LSU v. Texas A&M

Outback
Florida v. Michigan

Chick-Fil-A
USC v. Florida State

Gator
UT v. Iowa

Music City
Mississippi State v. North Carolina

Liberty
Georgia v. UCF

BBVA Compass
UK v. South Florida

Quick Preview

2010-11-27T09:47:00.002-05:00

Today isn't about the Tennessee Volunteers. It is about Joker Phillips and the Kentucky Wildcats. If the Cats come ready to play and put together 60 minutes of decent football, they win and end the streak. They don't need to play perfectly, or even great, for the entire game. But they have to show up when the bell rings and avoid first half disaster. It is that cut and dried.

Sounds easy enough, but as Lee Corso might say, "Not so fast, my friend". Truth is, through 11 games of the Phillips era the Cats have proven totally incapable of showing up to play. And the more important the game, the less ready to play they've been. It isn't just missed tackles, no pass rush and fumbles. It is blown assignments, false starts and not getting lined up correctly. In short, it are things that relate to effort and discipline. Which means they relate to coaching.

Kentucky exercised some demons with a huge (and quite fortunate) win over South Carolina. We could exercise a lot more today. This season could still end with four straight wins, two big streaks ending, and another nice bowl trophy. But if we don't win today, one big takeaway from 2010 will be my fear that Joker Phillips teams don't answer the bell.

Play hard and smart for 60 minutes. Win. Don't, and we'll be waiting at least another year.

Nov. 21 Pundits Projections

2010-11-22T14:51:00.002-05:00

This past weekend in college football was weird because a lot of interesting things almost happened, but none did. LSU, Ohio State and Michigan State almost played themselves out of BCS contention, but didn't. Ole Miss almost got into the bowl conversation, but didn't. Mississippi State almost layed claim to a special season, but didn't. UCLA almost showed up to play, but didn't. The list goes on. Anyway, as of this morning, here is where The People Who Do This For A Living believe the Cats are going bowling, along with brief tidbits about how they got us there:

ESPN.COM Andrea Adelson
Liberty Bowl v. UCF (Adelson apparently believes that we will lose to UT and still make the Liberty. She has Georgia in the Birmingham Bowl and UT going to the MAACO bowl in Las Vegas. Adelson has Oregon v. Boise St. in the National Championship and has only one SEC team in the BCS)

ESPN.COM Mark Schlabach
Birmingham Bowl v. South Florida (As with his collegue, Schlabach predicts a UK loss, and has UT and Georgia both ahead of us in the pecking order. Schlabach has Auburn in the National Championship and LSU in the Sugar, leaving an SEC spot for the Cats)

ESPN.COM Chris Low
Little Caesar's Pizza Bowl v. MAC team (The WWL's outstanding SEC blogger has UK losing to UT and falling out of the SEC bowl picture entirely. Low projects Alabama beating Auburn and only one SEC team in the BCS)

CFN Scout
Birmingham Bowl v. Syracuse (Again, CFN gives UT the win and a better bowl, places Georgia in the Liberty and preserves the bottom SEC rung for UK by virtue of projecting 2 SEC schools into the BCS. Going against the grain, CFN has Auburn in the National Championship, and what would apparently be a 3 loss Alabama team in the Sugar)

SI.Com Stewart Mandel
Music City Bowl v. North Carolina (Mandel bucks conventional wisdom and has UK beating UT. He also puts Auburn in NCG and LSU in Sugar. As a consequence, he does not have the SEC even filling its slots).

MSNBC John Temanaha
Birmingham v. South Florida (John's picks are a little wild. He has Auburn tumbling to both Alabama and South Carolina, sending USC to the Sugar. He then places LSU in the Orange above TCU, making him the only pundit to believe that the SEC will get 2 in the BCS without Auburn making the National Championship.)

Week 12 SEC Bowl Projections

2010-11-20T13:22:00.003-05:00

SEC bowl slotting continues to hinge largely on whether the conference gets 2 teams into BCS Bowls. As I've mentioned in previous posts, if Auburn wins the Iron Bowl the SEC will almost assuredly get 2 in. If Alabama wins, it most likely will not. With that in mind, I'll run 2 sets of projections. These picks are predicated on Georgia beating Georgia Tech, Mississippi failing to gain bowl eligibility and Tennessee doing so by winning out, including defeating UK.

Important: (If you are reading this later, this was posted before any results of the November 20th games)

Auburn wins:

National Championship
Auburn

Sugar
LSU

Capital One
Alabama

Cotton
Arkansas

Ouback
South Carolina

Chick-Fil-A
Mississippi State

Gator
Florida

Music City
Tennessee

Liberty
Kentucky

Birmingham
Georgia

Auburn loses to Alabama

Sugar
Auburn

Capital One
LSU

Cotton
Alabama

Outback
Arkansas

Chick-Fil-A
South Carolina

Gator
Florida

Music City
Tennessee

Liberty
Mississippi State

Birmingham
Georgia

Maaco-Las Vegas Dec 22, 8pm (replaces PAC-10 team)
UK

Discuss.

UK Bowl Projection Contingencies

2010-11-15T10:27:00.004-05:00

The Cats secured bowl eligibility with a shaky but ultimately satisfying win over Vandy on Saturday. There is an awful lot of uncertainty still about where the Cats may land. With USC winning over Florida, there is now no chance that the Cats land above the Tennessee tier of bowls. With UT winning easily over Ole Miss, and apparently finding its savior on Quarterback Tyler Bray, they are now a sexy pick to win out (@Vandy, UK) and gain bowl eligibility.

Assuming that is how it plays out, that would leave the SEC with three 6-6 teams (assuming Georgia can beat Georgia Tech at home on 11/27). Presumably, these three teams would fill the final 3 bowl spots in Nashville, Memphis and Birmingham. Unless the SEC only gets one team in the BCS, in which case there will only be two bowls for these three schools to go to.

In other words, UK is bowl eligible, but it is not guaranteed to go to a bowl. There are and endless number of "outs" though, that make a bowl trip a near certainty. Here are all the things that could happen, any one of which would land UK in a bowl:

1. Beating Tennessee. This is the easy one. This puts us at 7-5, knocks UT out, and puts us in either the Liberty or Music City.

2. Vandy beats UT at home. LSU takes care of business against Ole Miss. This guarantees there are enough spots for the Cats whether we beat UT or not. Frankly, I do not see Vandy pulling this off. They are truly awful.

3. Auburn beats Alabama and LSU wins out. Assuming Auburn beats Alabama, it is a lock for a BCS bowl (barring #5 below). If it goes to the National Championship, a one loss LSU is a lock for the Sugar.

4. Auburn beats Alabama, loses SEC Championship. This puts USC in the Sugar but makes a one loss Auburn almost a sure bet for another BCS bowl.

5. Cam Newton declared ineligible before SEC Championship game. If Auburn forfeits all of its wins, everyone moves up a notch.

6. Georgia loses to Georgia Tech on 11/27. The Dogs would sit at 5-7 and could not go to a bowl.

7. UK gets invited to a bowl ahead of UT or Georgia. I'd say this one is a total crapshoot. If UT beats UK, it will have a better league record and will be riding a three game streak on the back of a new QB. UT has not had a disappointing season when you get down to it. They were supposed to be god awful. Georgia is Georgia, and would seem to be a much better pull. If the Birmingham Bowl had to choose between us, well, Birmingham is close to practically all of Georgia. As little as Cats fans would want of U of L rematch in this game, the possibility of putting that game together in Birmingham might save the Cats' skin if none of these other contingencies work out.

8. Cats are invited to a bowl game outside the SEC chain. Every year there are conferences that cannot fill their bowl allotments. When this happens, bowls must fill slots with either a conference with which is has an existing agreement, then must take any 7 team, then may take a 6 win team. You are truly looking at scraps at this point. . . . .unless. . . .unless, Kentucky can take the Pac-1o's spot in the MAACO Bowl in Las Vegas on December 22. They are practically giving hotel rooms away in Vegas that week and you can get there from SDF pretty darned reasonably. However, if it plays out this way, my guess is you'll be much more likely to see UK taking on a MAC team in the Little Caesar's Pizza Bowl in Detroit on December 26th.

As UK Football Fans know, it is a cruel, cruel world.

More on the pundits' predictions and my actual projections in separate posts.

This is it.

2010-11-13T09:09:00.002-05:00

Quick post.
* This is a must win game for Joker. Vandy is weak, depleated and isn't playing for anything. It is our senior day and we are playing for a bowl berth. If the Cats cannot secure this victory it will be one of the worst losses in Commonwealth imaginable.

*If there is any justice in the world, Commonwealth will give Mike Hartline a send-off for the ages today. He has earned it.

*The thought that this might be Randall Cobb's last home game makes me physically ill. I wasn't expecting this to be an issue, which in retrospect was pretty naive.

*DeQuin Evans deserves to have a good game. I thought Trevard Lindley had a tough senior year. DeQuin's makes Trevard's look like a Heisman campaign.

*I'm glad that Derrick Locke is going to be able to go on senior day, but outside of actually winning the game, the next most important thing from a tactical standpoint would be for us to get through today without him being reinjured.

*Trying breakfast burritos in my Orange lot tailgate this morning. If I can avoid poisoning my family, it should be a good day. My friend Lee said it. There is zero reason to lose this game. Zero.

Last Game For Cobb?

2010-11-09T14:20:00.002-05:00

The internet is abuzz today with conjecture that this coming Saturday will be Randall Cobb's last game at Commonwealth. Selfishly, I hope that isn't true. But the truth is, I have no idea whether leaving is a good idea for Cobb or not. Here is what I do know:

1. Cobb has nothing left to prove as a college player. At least from a pro scout perspective, Cobb has done about all he can do on the field to show he can play football. Elusiveness, balance, smarts, toughness and big play ability. It has all been on display. If you had to pick nits, I suppose you could say that he could return and show he is a little more surehanded. But you might as well be looking for flaws on Jennifer Anniston.

2. Cobb is a certain type of player, and another year of college will not change that. At 5'10" 190 without game breaking speed, Cobb will make his way in the NFL as a slot receiver and probably punt returner. He isn't a prototypical #1 guy, but I would not put it past him to have Wes Welker or Hines Ward's career. I'd take that, wouldn't you? He isn't going to get faster or appreciably bigger in the intervening year, so the die is pretty well cast as far as his upside.

3. The decisions of others may dictate whether Cobb leaves this year. AJ Green and Julio Jones will almost assuredly leave this year and will probably be the first two recevers drafted when they do leave. Cobb may also want to know what some other top flight guys such as Notre Dame's Michael Floyd and Oklahoma's Ryan Broyles will do. All are juniors, and if many go, Cobb might improve his stock by waiting a year. This year's sophomore class isn't nearly as stacked. On the other hand, if a lot of the other juniors will stay put, it might be time to boogie.

4. Cobb has compelling reasons to return. The twitter fit notwithstanding, Cobb seems to recognize his place in the hearts of the Big Blue Nation and at least based on his Tweets seems to enjoy college and is happy here. He is arguably the best player in program history. If he returns for his senior season and produces consistently, it erases all doubt. How many people can say that they are the best football player in the history of an SEC school? Those guys have names like Manning, Walker and Jackson. That is a club to aspire to.
There is also the matter of Cobb obtaining a degree. This isn't basketball. A pro football player, especially a non-star, has a week to week existence. The average career lasts fewer than three years and no part of a salary except a signing bonus is guaranteed. Also, football offers many more coaching opportunities for former players than do other sports. A degree is a necessity for a college assistant.

5. Cobb has compelling reasons not to return. Randall has given his heart and soul to the program for three years. Though UK has seemed close to turning the corner a couple of times, it hasn't quite happened. It could happen next year, but there is no particular reason to believe it will. Cobb is probably looking at another 7-5 or 6-6 season ending with a bowl he has already played in for his senior year. He has taken an incredible amount of punishment. At his size, he only has a certain number of hits left in his body. Every one he takes next year is one he isn't getting paid for. Also, it would appear that every Cat who has had the chance to leave early and returned has fallen in the process. After seeing Trevard fall out of the first round and Micah go completely undrafted, could anyone blame Cobb for striking while the iron is hot.

6. This decision might be best made by consulting a stopwatch. The knock on Cobb has always been a lack of top end speed. I've never seen him caught from behind. He looks plenty fast to me. But what do I know. Cobb reportedly ran a 4.43 forty at last year's UK Pro Day. If he has those wheels in the combine (and this includes the bar of injury) he is safely in the middle rounds of the draft (maybe as high as a late 2) and safely making an NFL team. No matter when he leaves. On the other hand, if he is more in the range of 4.60-4.65, I could see him falling and things get dicey. If the latter is the case, Cobb would be wise to come back, get his degree, and try to collect a couple more SEC scalps.

7. I'll be very sad if Randall Cobb is not playing football at Kentucky next year.

8. But I will not blame him one bit.

Updated Bowl Projections

2010-11-07T14:10:00.004-05:00

All in all, this weekend's games did have somewhat of an impact on the SEC bowl picture. LSU's defeat of Alabama takes the latter out of national championship picture. Though the Bayou Bengals could be in line for a Sugar Bowl birth, it is unlikely that they can get to the National Championship game themselves. With TCU tearing #5 Utah apart yesterday and Alabama losing again, a one loss SEC team probably can't do it.

SEC fans should be hoping for Auburn and LSU to win out. In that scenario, Auburn would obviously play for the national title and LSU would almost certainly be snapped up by the Sugar Bowl. Even if Auburn were to lose in the SEC Championship after winning out in the regular season, the SEC should still get 2 in the BCS. At that point the SEC East team would go to the Sugar (it is an automatic bid), and Auburn 12-1 with the Heisman Trophy winner on its roster would probably still get an At-large BCS bid.

Things could get dicey, though, if Auburn loses to Alabama but then goes on to win the SEC Championship. Then Auburn is Sugar Bowl bound and LSU or Alabama would be fighting for BCS scraps. Boise State and TCU are virtual locks, which leaves only 2 At-large BCS spots. The Big 10 has a trio of one loss teams, Ohio State, Michigan State and Wisconsin. The PAC-10 has Stanford, which would be a natural substitute pick for the Rose Bowl if Oregon goes to the National Championship.

If you want to get all starry eyed, I guess you could argue that South Carolina's loss to Arkansas puts the Gamecocks back in the Cats crosshairs. There is still a good chance that USC falls to 7-5 and would no longer be a clear better choice. In that scenario, assuming 2 in the BCS, my current projection would be:

Auburn and LSU-BCS
Alabama-Capital One
Arkansas-Cotton
Florida-Outback
Mississippi State-Chick-Fil-A

The Gator would then be choosing between 7-5 Kentucky and a 7-5 South Carolina. Under this scenario, we would have ended the season with 3 straight wins, including a historical victory over UT. USC would have lost 3 of its last 4 and basically have free fallen once again after another great start. Bad news: Geography. Columbia is a lot closer to Jacksonville than Lexington. Parts of South Carolina are only about 3 hours away by car. Worse news: This assumes Kentucky can win out, which is far from a given at this point.

As I mentioned last week, Mississippi State could still lose out an fall to 7-5. At this point, I think it is more likely that USC will lose to Florida and Clemson, making them a better leapfrog possibility.

The point has been made several times that the Liberty Bowl and the UK-U of L Football game are at the same time on December 31st. Truth be told, I have no earthly clue how that will impact the process.

You'll note that I changed things up a bit this week. And if you are looking at this critically, you'll see that yes, there is a chance that UK could get to 6-6 and still be shut out of the SEC bowls.

Without further adieu:

National Championship
Auburn

Sugar
LSU

Capital One
Alabama

Cotton
Arkansas

Outback
Florida/USC winner

Chick-Fil-A
Mississippi State

Gator
Florida/USC loser

Music City
Tennessee

Liberty
Georgia

Birmingham Bowl
Kentucky

Reality Bites

2010-11-07T11:16:00.003-05:00

If Kentucky plays the last two games of the season the way it played yesterday, it will finish 5-7 and Joker Phillips seat will rightfully be scortching hot in 2011.

Bowl Projection Post

2010-11-02T12:27:00.002-04:00

We've come to the part of the year where UK Football Fan really has to earn its keep. As the plot thickens on the bowl season, here is a look at where I project the SEC going. I've tried to construct a scenario in my head that could put UK above the Tennessee-Alabama trio of lower tiered bowls. The Cats currently sit 9th in the SEC Bowl pecking order, ahead of Vandy and UT (which are very unlikely to become bowl eligible) and Ole Miss (which might). I assume the SEC will get 2 teams in the BCS. The reasons why that is almost a lock could use their own post, but trust me. Assuming that is true, the Cats would need to move up to 7th in the pecking order to get to either the Gator or Chick-Fil-A Bowls.

Any scenario that gets us out of Tennessee will involve the Cats winning out. There are 7 SEC teams who are basically guaranteed 7 wins at this point, so it is safe to say that a 6-6 Cats team isn't going to be invited to a bowl over one of them.

Who to jump? The most likely candidate is Georgia, who sits at 4-5, 3-4 in the SEC, with Idaho St., @Auburn and Georgia Tech remaining. Though it currently has a much better league record, I'd argue that Georgia has a much tougher road to 7-5 than do the Cats. They will not be an attractive bowl team as I'd assume their fan base has about had it.

The next most likely candidate is Mississippi State, which is 7-2, 3-2 but must close @Alabama, Arkansas, @Ole Miss. If the Dawgs lose out and we win out, we will have identical 7-5, 3-5 records. Sure, they beat us head to head and have more impressive wins on the resume. But that isn't what bowl scouts are looking for. The Dawgs play boring football and are basically on par with UK from a prestige standpoint. If the Gator Bowl is forced to choose between these two teams, it could easily opt for the Cats, whose fans historically travel well. Note, however, that Starkville is a couple hours closer to Jacksonville by car than is Lexington.

The only other team that could be leapfrogged is Arkansas, and that seems unlikely. The Razorbacks are 6-2, 3-2 but will be girding their loins jockeying for position among the mid-tier SEC schools over the season's final weeks. They still have to play @South Carolina, @Mississippi State and at home against LSU, and could very easily lose all three. However, Arkansas still has a guaranteed win on its schedule against UTEP and with Ryan Mallett still a huge draw, would appear to be more attractive even if both they and the Cats are 7-5.

So, truth be told, the Cats' bowl situation is probably immutable, unless it cannot get a sixth win. (On a side note, go ahead and circle November 13th on your calender. Lose that game, and the Joker Phillips era might be over before it really begins). Here is where I project things currently:

1. Auburn- National Championship
2. Alabama- Sugar Bowl
3. LSU-Capital One
4. Florida/South Carolina Winner- Outback
5. Arkansas-Cotton
6. Florida/South Carolina loser- Chick-Fil-A
7. Mississippi State- Gator
8. Georgia- Music City
9. Kentucky-Liberty
No qualifier for Birmingham Bowl

Around the world in 10 minutes

2010-10-29T10:11:00.002-04:00

I have ten minutes to write this post. Here goes:

Today I am heading down in the general direction of Starkville to catch the Cats tomorrow night. This year's road trip features my football fanatic son, 7 year old Ethan and my fun loving Uncle Scott, who just decided to come with us a couple of days ago.
We are 6.5 point dogs in this game. This seemed high until I saw a pretty harrowing stat this week. We have given up 26 touchdowns this year. Mississippi State has given up 6. Kentucky's opponents are basically playing on an 80 yard field as we have essentially no red zone stops all year.

That said, I think we have a fighting chance in this game if the D can hold its ground just a few times. The Dawgs barely beat UAB last week, so it isn't as if they are infallible. Also, with King, Matthews and Cobb all ready to go, I just don't see them holding us down completely. The Cats will get to the mid-twenties at least. Where it goes from there is anyone's guess.

Tonight we are staying in Birmingham, AL so that I can drive through Tuscaloosa tomorrow on my way to Starkville. Though I spent parts of my childhood in Kentucky and most of it in San Diego, I lived in Tuscaloosa for four or five years while my Dad was at the University of Alabama. It was a good time in my football fan development as he took me to the games in the 1979 championship year, and I can also remember Alabama's shared national championship year in 1978.

So even though we aren't playing Alabama tomorrow, I am going to replicate our walks to the game with my son, snap a picture at Denny Chimes, drive by my old house and get on the road to Starkville.

When I asked my friend this week what there was to do in Starkville he replied, "Watch Football". I am not sure what we'll do when we get there but we'll have fun doing it.

After the game Saturday we'll make a tired hour long trek to Tupelo where there is a musty Howard Johnson's bed waiting for me.

*Anyone think you'd ever hear a radio show talking about Mike Hartline's draft status? I did today. What a great story Hartline has been.

*The bowl picture in the SEC is going to get a lot clearer after tomorrow. This is probably the Cats' last chance to rise above the Tennesse bowl scene. Also, the World's Largest Cocktail party will be huge for the winner, who'll have an inside track at a New Year's Day Bowl despite the fact that neither team has had much of a year.

*I am putting Auburn on upset alert. Even setting aside that the #1 has lost three weeks in a row, the Tigers trip to Oxford has all the trappings of a spit the bit game. If Auburn loses, there is a creeper of a chance that the SEC will not get two BCS bids. That would be bad for other SEC teams, espectially one that might only get to 6-6.

Where we are

2010-10-27T09:50:00.003-04:00

First off, I am taking my son down to Starkville this weekend for the game. I'm very excited about this and the trip will get its own separate post this week and hopefully a wrapup post next week. We are going to make our own fun. My friend Chuck put it best when I asked him what there was to do in Starkville, "Watch football." Still, I'll end up breaking it all down before and after.

With that said, it does appear that UK Football Fan is on its last legs. While I really appreciate the people who are still reading, I've lost some interest in the project somewhere along the way. It has nothing to do with the team or this season, it is more the writing aspect that has me. I'm not happy with the product and just don't think it is fresh or interesting. I'm so passionate and nerdily well informed about the topic that the writing is dry. Also, the site is never going to reach a wide audience if it isn't updated regularly, which is not something I don't have the time or inclination to do.

My failure to post anything about the South Carolina win was the deathknell. That was a #1 or #2 moment in Commonwealth for me. Right up there with Louisville 07. If not for a time like that, there isn't any point in having a fan site.

I will continue to post content occasionally, particularly as it relates to the SEC bowl picture, always my favorite line of discussion. But we are certainly running out of steam. Again, thanks for reading.

UK-USC video post

2010-10-15T11:26:00.002-04:00

Here is the video referred to in the above post in case you missed it last weekend. In Garcia's defense, he did beat the #1 team in the country that day

Good Karma Friday

2010-10-15T10:41:00.002-04:00

This post started as a comment to a post made by Bryan the Intern on Kentucky Sports Radio where he chronicalled the admittedly staggering number of heartbreaking losses the Wildcats have sustained over the last 8 years. My point is that in the new Kentucky era 2006-present, we have had just as many wins where we got the good bounces or made out own luck in the end. Because I put some time into researching it, I reprint it here. Here are some good moments to think about to psyche yourself up for tomorrow's game:

2009
1. UK scores 14 points off of 4 second half Ga. turnovers to win 34-27
2. UK beats Auburn 21-14 on 2 fourth quarter TDs after trailing almost entire game
3. Beat Vandy 24-13 after trailing at halftime
2008
4. Win Liberty bowl 25-19 with Ventrell Jenkins scoring the game winner on a fumble recovery
5. Miracle 21-20 win over Arkansas with two TDs in final minutes
6. Shoestring tackle by backup DB preserves win against Middle Tennessee
7. Block extra point and watch opposing field goal kicker miss 27 yarder, both in the 4Q to win 14-13 at Miss St.

2007
8. Triple overtime win over then #1 LSU
9. Trailing 29-21 with 11:40 left, Cats score final 21 points of game to beat Arkansas
10. Stevie gets looooose!

2006
11. Avoided disaster by stuffing 2 point conversion with a minute left that would have tied game with Louisianna-Monroe at 42 all.
12. Beat Georgia on a go ahead TD by Tony Dixon with 1:21 left. We trailed 14-3 in this game at one point.

Defensive woes continue

2010-10-13T09:45:00.002-04:00

UK Football Fan was on hiatus last week as the Floridays Resort in Orlando, for all of its virtues, did not have wifi in the room. I generally haven't summarized games this year but must say this one really hurt. We haven't had too many chances to beat top 10 teams here recently, especially at a time when our program so desperately needed a win. Auburn's final drive had an air of inevitability about it that made it particularly hard to watch. Once Newton completed that miracle pass on 3rd and 9 early in the drive, you and I both knew that the Tigers were going to methodically march down the field and score with little or no time left on the clock. The Cats sit at 3-3, which is exactly where I predicted they'd be at this point. So why does it feel like such a letdown? Several reasons.

I had Ole Miss pegged as a decent team, which it is not. A good football team should not have lost to them on October 2. Second, I wasn't expecting Mike Hartline to play as well as he has. To put it in perspective, his 143.5 QB rating is ahead of any full season rating Jared Lorenzen ever had here and within one point of the Andre Woodson's 2007 rating. If you'd told me Hartline would throw for at least 200 yards in every game, with only one non-Florida interception to this point, I would have thought the Cats were on their way to a nine win season.

But the biggest reason I feel let down with 3-3 is the realization that our defense is pretty bad, and it is bad in ways that aren't likely to be fixed before the end of the year. Steve Brown is taking a lot of criticism this week, and some of it is warranted. After all the defenses Cameron Newton has torched this year, Kentucky had to game plan to stop him. Clearly it didn't. The Cats seemed unaware that he would keep the ball on the majority of plays. If you've watched film, how could you not know that. Also, allowing Trey Burton to score 6 TDs for Florida, 4 of which were out of the same play, is inexcusable. That isn't good preparation.

But it is also poor tackling. Unlike in the Mumme era, I think these players do practice tackling. Unfortunately, most of them aren't "SEC starter" good at it. Danny Trevathan has been a 5 star beast. It is hard to imagine how bad our defense would be without him. But, and I hate to say this in this forum, that is kind of where the party ends right now.

The Cats next three best players on D were supposed to be DeQuin Evans, Winston Guy and Rickey Lumpkin, in that order. Evans has fallen into a wormhole, with only one sack, averaging a tackle a game, and committing numerous stupid penalties. Guy has been solid, if decidedly unspectacular. He did make a key play with an interception against Auburn, the first of his career. For a kid with that kind of talent, that play needs to be the rule and not the exception. Lumpkin has been outperformed by Mark Crawford and Luke McDermott, who wasn't even supposed to be a contributor on this year's team.

The secondary play has been fair, with Martavious Neloms, Anthony Mosely and Mychal Bailey stepping up as contributors. But the front seven outside of Travathan has been woefully unproductive. That is what happens when the teams loses the likes of Corey Peters, Micah Johnson and Sam Maxwell and guys like Mister Cobble and Matt Lentz (who would have started at OLB or safty) aren't able to play for various reasons. Throw in the loss of Paul Warford, and the ranks are just a little thin. Brown can only play the hand he is dealt.

I hope for improvement, because some of our talented guys aren't really producing, but I also know things don't get any easier this week. For Steve Brown and his defense, it will continue to be a wild ride.

2010-10-02T11:22:00.001-04:00

UK at Ole Miss Liveblog

Look at the week after Florida 2006-2009

2010-10-01T21:08:00.003-04:00

Yesterday I alluded to a hypothesis about our annual beatdown by Florida. My feeling is that the game generally has little to do with what happens the rest of the season. The possible reasons for this are hard to swallow, it is either about an ever present and insurmountable talent gap or that this is the one game, year in and year out, that the Cats don't believe they can win. Whatever the reason, I thought it might be interesting to test the hypothesis by looking at the week after Florida in the New Kentucky (2006-present) era.

September 23, 2006
Lost at Florida 26-7 to fall to 2-2. Cats played okay against eventual national champs. Were winning the game 7-6 with a minute left in the first half.

Following Week
UK defeats Dan LeFevour led Central Michigan 45-36. After a weak game against the Gators, Andre Woodson and the UK offense came alive with four TDs through the air.

Rest of the story
UK would sustain a 24-17 home loss to USC the next week, then suffer a now well chronicled 49-0 beat down at LSU before going on a streak that would usher in a series of four straight bowl trips.

October 20, 2007
In one of the most electric games in Commonwealth Stadium history, then #7 (but 7pt. underdog) Cats lose 45-37 to eventual Heisman trophy winner Tim Tebow and a Gator team that would finish the season 9-4. This was the week after the epic LSU win with the Gameday crew in tow. Cats fall to 6-2 and drop to #15 or thereabouts the following week.

Following Week
UK crapped the bed with a 31-14 home loss to Mississippi State, arguably ruining what could have been a pretty special season.

Rest of the story
Cats limped home the rest of the way (1- 2 with Vandy the lone victory) before scoring an anticlimactic MCB win over depleted Florida State.

October 25, 2008
Cats fall 63-5 at the Swamp in the most embarrassing loss of the Cats' four year bowl run. If you don't remember this game, here are three words for you, "blocked punt orgy". We were riding pretty high coming into this game, having just scored our fifth win with an improbable comeback against Arkansas.

Following week
UK wins 14-13 uglyfest at Mississippi State. Get bowl eligible at 6-3.

Rest of the story
Regular season falls apart when Cats let one get away against Georgia then play abysmally against the Tennessee schools. Fun comeback win against East Carolina in Liberty ends season on a high note.

October 26, 2009
Cats look like crap again in a 41-7 home loss. Sole highlight of the game comes when Tim Tebow gets absolutely laid out by Taylor Windham, but even that moment is ruined by the aftermath when the icon remained motionless for what seemed like an hour. Moment redeemed somewhat by him barfing in a bag.

Following week
Crappy scheduling, Cats look better, but still take a beating from eventual national champion Alabama.

Rest of the story
Switch gets flipped the following week when Hartline goes out for the season in a tight loss to USC. Cats pull off a couple of sweet road upsets and go 5-2 the rest of the regular season.

Analysis: UK has competed once in this game in four years, and had its worst finish despite having had its best team. Otherwise, we've managed to play pretty well the following week and in 2006 and 2009, we put a crappy game behind us to finish the whole season strong.

Now lets go beat Ole Miss.

Game 1?

2010-09-30T10:12:00.003-04:00

As we approach the Ole Miss game on Saturday at 12:21pm est, I feel in some ways like the season really starts tomorrow. Before the year started, I was about 80% sure that we'd be 3-1 going into this week with almost exclusively winnable games left on the schedule. Since then, the plot in the SEC has thickened a little, but we still don't know too much about our Cats. It might be easier to analyze our future opponents than ourselves at this point.

Here is what seems to have shaken loose on that front. First, Auburn (4-0) and South Carolina (3-1, with its lone loss a no shamer at Auburn), look tough to beat. Both have added players who allow them to transcend their recent success. Auburn has a Heisman trophy contender dual threat at QB in Cam Newton, and USClite boasts the most talked about freshman in the SEC, RB Marcus Lattimore. USC is showing some chinks in the armour. Spurrier cannot help himself from creating a quarterback controversy despite having his best signal caller in years and Auburn did manage to bottle up Lattimore after he went absolutely bananas against Georgia.

Auburn has fewer warts, but SEC fans will recall that it started 5-0 last year before settling down to a more pedestrian 7-5 regular season. Of course, UK beat that team on the road.

Georgia looked tougher on the drawing board than it now does. The Bulldogs just got spanked by Mississippi State and are 0-3 in the SEC. AJ Green will be back from suspension and UGa will face a couple of slumpbusters by the time they play Kentucky on 10/23. Still, they are one bad loss away from being in full scale red alert with a coach on a scorching hot seat.

All of which brings us to Ole Miss. The Rebels are 2-2 with embarrassing home losses to Vandy and Jacksonville freakin State already on the resume. They are ranked 100th in scoring defense in the NCAA, having given up 32 points a game (against a very weak schedule). Kentucky has to win this game in order to have a good season. Could we sneak into a bowl at 6-6 without it? Sure. There are other potential wins left on the schedule. But to me, this one is so ripe for the plucking that it would be hard to recover from losing it.

All of which begs the question: Where is our team? A solid win against a weakened rival, two blowouts against clearly inferior competition, and a bad loss in a game we almost always lose badly but which never seems to have much bearing on the outcome of the season. We'll know a lot more after Saturday, I believe.

For me the keys to the game are twofold. One, we need to unleash the Wildcat on Ole Miss. Randall Cobb has only 11 carries in four games, including one or two on reverses. By comparison, he had 94 carries in 12 games last year. Middling SEC teams really had trouble containing him. I think Joker knows this and deliberately hasn't sown much so far. Secondly, the Cats need to hit, wrap and bring guys down on defense. I've decided that we had simply too many holes to fill and our defense has several starters who would not have played at Kentucky in the past 3-4 years. Certain guys, like Jeramiah Masioli, are going to get theirs against us. But when our defenders do get a guy in their arms, they have to bring them down. All in all, I'd like to see some improvement in that area.

More later.

Gameday

2010-09-25T09:15:00.002-04:00

* I have deliberately not posted anything about today's game. This is without question a fan site. I'm generally only critical of things that are obvious and I don't want to be a UK Football Fan who drowns in the negative like so many running around Commonwealth Stadium. This week, it seems like everyone from the guy in the office next door to Mark May on ESPN are feeling this as an upset game. But look.

*I've been pleasantly surprised by the passing game and the overall command shown by Mike Hartline. Florida hasn't exactly played clean football in running its record to 3-0. None of that changes my preseason thoughts about today's game.

*Chip Cosby has an excellent look at 10 keys to victory in today's Herald Leader. It may not be enough, but I'll limit my take to one key. In order to stand a chance in this game, Kentucky needs to avoid giving up big plays. Florida is going to score. It will likely do so several times. The Cats need to make the Gators earn it. Longer drives means less pressure on our offense, more chances of a drive killing mistake (which this Florida team has been prone to), and a greater likelihood of putting Florida in a 3rd and long it cannot get out of. If Jeff Demps is running 73 yards for scores, none of those things can happen.

*Nothing from an official outlet, but some Twitter traffic last night indicated that Danny Trevathan will miss the first quarter for disciplinary reasons. That doesn't help.

*I may not be able to watch the game tonight. My law firm party at my partner's farm begins at 7. Apparently he does not have a cable box on his living room television and the basement will be off limits for the 150 or so guests. He swears that he will rig the living room tube, but may be telling me this to get me off his back. I get the impression his wife doesn't want the game on, which any married guy will tell you means I'm fighting a losing battle. Long time readers may remember that I was in a wedding in Atlanta the night of the LSU upset and didn't see a snap. So maybe I can ride the superstition train. On the other hand, if the game is close in the second half and not viewable, all the clients and friends I invited to the party will be gone anyway and I'll just sneak my ass out.

*Maybe I'm drinking the Kool Aid after all.

* On a non-game related note, I should mention that two days after cutting him, the Miami Dolphins did resign Micah Johnson to the practice squad. This move cuts his salary in 1/4, which means he only makes about three to four times what you did in your first job out of college.

My son hits the Catwalk before Akron game

2010-09-21T23:02:00.002-04:00

This week's UK Bowl Projections

2010-09-21T10:50:00.002-04:00

We'll begin week 4 with a look at where the various outlets project the Cats to end up in their bowl season. The Bowl Projection posts might be a little sparse for a while as MSNBC has apparently quit posting.

A couple of notes about bowl slots. Recall that the Gator Bowl has replaced the Independence in the SEC lineup. This is an obvious upgrade and gives our conference an extra New Year's Day Florida destination. Had this been the lineup over the last 4 years, it is very likely UK would have wound up in either Jacksonville or Atlanta 2-3 times.

With Florida no longer penciled in for 11 wins, there exists at least some possiblity that the SEC will only get one team into the BCS. Under the current format in place since the 2006 season (5 Bowls), this has never happened. This would obviously hurt the SEC by pushing everyone down a slot.

I eyeballing where things stand today, I'd say UK fans should be rooting against Georgia . With 2 SEC losses in the books and Florida, Auburn and UK on the road still on the schedule, they are ripe for overtaking. Georgia is slotted ahead of UK in each of the projections below.

ESPN MARK SCHLABACH
Music City Bowl v. North Carolina

ESPN ANDREA ADELSON
Liberty Bowl v. South Florida (She must mean Central Florida as the CUSA gets an automotic bid)

CFN-SCOUT
Birmingham (Formerly Papajohn's.com) Bowl v. South Florida

CBS SPORTSLINE
Music City Bowl v. NC State

Gameday-SEC style

2010-09-18T08:15:00.005-04:00

Not a lot of leftover thoughts about this one. As supportive as I am of UK decisions about scheduling for the football team, I must admit that it leaves me with very little to write about. There isn't a single Kentuckian on Akron's roster, so I don't even have that to talk about. Instead I'll do a very quick look around the SEC.

Today the SEC doesn't have any marquee games, but there are a couple of decent ones where someone has a chance to make a statement. The nooner (ESPN) features Arkansas heading down between the hedges. Having been pretty much owned by Marcus Lattimore and USC last week, this is an important one for Mark Richt and his squad. Win, and they are probably back in the Top 25 with their only loss on the road to a good team. Lose, and coach Richt's seat could start to heat up. For Arkansas, it is the first real test of the year.

Florida heads to Tennessee (3:30 est-CBS) in what used to be a huge early season matchup. This one has lost its luster. Still a UT upset against a Florida squad that hasn't quite found its footing on offense would be a huge boon for new coach Derrick Dooley. Though unlikely, it isn't completely outside the realm. I personally will be rooting for Florida, as I don't want UT to have any excuse to gain confidence at any point this year.

Cam Newton and Auburn host Clemson (7PM-espn) in what I perceive as a matchup of mirror image colleges and athletic programs. Seriously, aren't Clemson and Auburn the same school?

Finally, I'm interested to see if Mississippi State can get anything going at LSU (7PM-ESPNU)today. I cannot escape the notion that MSU might be for real and LSU is primed for a big fall.

The rest of the SEC games are all yawners, including an in conference game between Ole Miss and Vandy (12:21, the telecast formerly known as JP) that I'll lay money will be the lowest rated SEC Network game of the year.

As always, good luck and Go Cats. Have a fun day.

Funky Akron Preview

2010-09-17T15:54:00.000-04:00

Cobb for Heisman

2010-09-15T09:37:00.003-04:00

Recent talk about the best players in college football by analyst Mel Kiper, Jr. and others has led to some grumblings in Big Blue Nation. Why isn't Randall Cobb mentioned as a Heisman candidate. For anyone who has watched him play, it is hard to argue that he isn't one of the best players in college football. Many if not most believe he will leave Kentucky with the unofficial title of "best player in school history". So here is the question I'll try to answer. What would have to happen for Randall Cobb to win the Heisman, either this year or next?

1. The Cats go at least 9-3, if not 10-2. Here is the great limiting factor that is well out of Cobb's exclusive control. The Heisman is not a team award, but the winner is overwhelmingly more likely to come from a very good team. Since 1981, only five players whose team lost more than 2 games won the Heisman, and most came from football royalty schools: Tim Tebow, Ricky Williams, Ty Detmer, Tim Brown, Bo Jackson.

This isn't just about penalizing players who don't win. It is about exposure. If UK is in the Top 10 or 15 late in the season, it is going to get that good ESPN slot, rather than being on regional SEC Network or Fox Sports South. If we are in contention in the SEC East, our highlights are automatically on Sportscenter. There is no Heisman if you aren't a feature player on the Worldwide Leader week after week.

2. Score at least 20 touchdowns. Desmond Howard is the last non-QB or RB to win the Heisman. He did it back in 1991 in what I think would have to be a blueprint for Cobb's chances at the award. Howard did not get to 1000 receiving yards. That is important, because with all Cobb is asked to do, I don't see him having a 1000 yard season this year or next. What Howard did was find the end zone in myriad ways. Coincidentally, this is Randall's specialty. Howard's 1991 campaign featured 19 receiving TDs, 2 rushing and one each on a kickoff and punt.

3. Go bezerk in one game. As I mentioned, Cobb does so many things that his yardage numbers in any one category are never going to jump out at voters, at least not over the course of a season. But having eye popping numbers in a single game is a different matter. A review of Cobb's career indicated that he has only gone over 100 yards in rushing twice and has never had a 100 yard receiving game. A 300 yard combined game of rushing, receivng and returning is in play for Randall, and would probably be impressive enough to do the trick.

4. Have a signature play. Cobb's greatest physical asset (besides his heart) is his balance. It is uncanny. For Cobb to get the Heisman, he'd need to have one play that shows this off, spinning off someone's back without his knees touching the ground, flipping and keeping his feet, something that makes everyone in the country say "whoa".

5. Some luck and a bad bounce or two for other contenders. If Michael Crabtree doesn't haul in a pass with 7 seconds left against UT, Colt McCoy wins the Heisman instead of Sam Bradford. There is an element to winning the Heisman that is out of any one player's hands.

OR, in lieu of at least some of these requirements, Cobb could instead play some defense. Babe Ruth was the best baseball player of all time. You want to know why? Make your argument for Willie Mays, Hank Aaron or Ted Williams and then hear my trump card. In addition to being no worse than a top 5 hitter of all time, Ruth went 94-46 as a pitcher and was 3-0 with a 0.87 ERA in two World Series appearances. I win. If the Cats could win 9 games next year while lining Cobb up as a full-time corner, he gets a couple of picks in addition to an expected offensive output, it would be time to hand him the trophy. Before you jump all over me, I realize this isn't going to happen and I'm just joking. Kinda.

Sunday Notes Not Published Until Wednesday

2010-09-12T14:46:00.004-04:00

*While the headlines belonged to Randall Cobb, the real story of this game for the Wildcats was Mike Hartline, whose confidence has to be through the roof at this point. No matter who you are going against, going 16 for 20 is tough. Mike put a number of throws on the money and managed things like a champ.

*The wide receiving corps are the most improved thing about the team. LaRod King and Matt Roark have really stepped up to provide depth.

*I did not think the offensive line played all that well. While the pass blocking was generally good, I don't feel like they were getting off the ball in the running game all that well. Moncell Allen did have another solid game blocking for Locke at fullback.

*The defense was obviously a little suspect in this game. I would note a couple of things, though. First, Martavius Neloms was out for the game at corner (I'm not sure why). Second, the Cats were substiting liberally even in the first half. Qua Huzzie and Ridge Wilson played quite a bit, Josh Gibbs got a couple of series in at safety, and there was also movement at defensive line and corner.

*Anthony Mosely and Cartier Rice played pretty well in Neloms absence.

*In two games, captain DeQuin Evans has yet to register a tackle.

Notes while waiting on the mail

2010-09-11T09:51:00.002-04:00

Interesting morning here in the UK Football Fan household. First of all, we know that football season is in full swing because my son and I have restarted our ritual of playing catch while watching games. Every once in a while I'll have him stop and do some situps (he sucks at pushups). We call this his training. During a typical college football game, we'll probably pass the ball 1000 times. When we aren't watching games during football season, he is usually playing Madden on the Wii (which he is doing right now). Despite not listening to a thing I tell him about anything else, he has developed a real love for football. Its pretty cool.

All of which factors heavily into the dilemma that has presented itself here today. Last Sunday my Uncle texted me to say that he is leaving town and asking if I wanted his tickets for this game and his Orange lot pass. Hell yes. He mailed them to me on Tuesday, from Danville. As of yesterday's mail, the package hasn't arrived. So as of this morning, I have no idea what my Commonwealth experience will entail today. Either I'll be full on tailgating on my own with sweet 40 yard line seats for my son and I, or I'll be wandering around the parking lot at 6:30 looking for cheap tickets for my kids for whom I've secured no babysitter. We'll see what today's mail brings.

Tonight's game should be a walkover for the Cats. Western has not won a game since UK throttled them 41-3 at Commonwealth in 2008. Though I expect Willie Taggart to breath new life in the program, it is going to have to wait another week.

A couple of good games are on tap in the SEC today. Of course the marquee matchup is Penn State at Alabama at 7. But I am a lot more interest in watching UGa-USC at noon. This game could have a lot to do with the SEC East race, what with SC looking very good against Southern Miss last week and Florida not exactly coming out like world beaters against Miami(OH). Last year the Bulldogs eeked one out in Athens, 41-37 in a game that went down to the last possession. Can the Cocks turn the tables in Columbia?

This is actually one of the better college football days I can remember. I'm excited for the UK game, but sometimes it is a bit of a bummer to know that I'm missing a ton of good games to spend all day there. I'll miss the 3:30 and 7pm games, but with the aforementioned SEC tilt at noon, and my UCLA Bruins playing the nightcap against Stanford at 10:30 est, I am still going to get a lot in.

Have a great day everyone and go Cats. Did the mail come yet?

Hartline

2010-09-10T10:02:00.003-04:00

With the benefit now of a little bit of hindsight, I want to talk today about Joker's decision to got with Mike Hartline as the starting quarterback in the opener against Louisville. Since Mike played well in that game (very well, if you ask me), the debate has died down a bit. You know as well as I do that if UK starts collection three and outs like baseball cards in the next two weeks, or Hartline throws a couple of bad picks against Florida, things are going to pick back up again. So, with very little of substance to say about Saturday's game, now seems like a good time to explore it.

When the decision was announced, the reaction from UK fans was basically split in thirds. Some, like me, accepted that Hartline won the job though even many of those people were sceptical. Many people were disappointed that Morgan Newton was not named the starter. After all, he was 5-3 last year as a true freshman starting in the SEC, and came into the program with a lot of hype. There was still a third faction who insisted that Ryan Mossakowski was the future of the program, and needed to be installed as the starter immediately.

What I never understand about this debate is how anyone unconnected with the the football program can pretend to know what Joker should do. With the exception of the first fall scrimmage (which I saw and didn't glean much from) no one has seen these players practice since spring. Not even the media. What we have to go on is the player's histories, that is about it. Reasonable minds might differ about who played better last year, Newton or Hartline, but for people to act as if Joker is missing something obvious by not starting Newton seems like a stretch.

Last year Morgan Newton signed my son's UK shirt the night before the Music City Bowl. I still have a picture of it on my phone. Newton shows up and keeps score at Eastern Little League games, I suppose because he is hanging out with Sam Simpson, whose family is a fixture at Ecton Park. There aren't too many quarterbacks who are best buddies with reserve offensive linemen. My point is that you'll won't find a bigger Morgan Newton fan than me. But the idea that he clearly outplayed Mike Hartline when he took the field last year is absurd.

Yes, Newton was 5-3 as the starter, but that isn't really the whole story. First, two of the wins were against EKU and Louisianna-Monroe. Newton started in the huge win against Auburn, but was only 5 of 13 and gave way to Will Fidler in the second half. In a win against Vandy, he threw for fewer yards than RB Derrick Locke, who completed a 41 yarder to Newton on a trick play in the third quarter. Newton did have a signature game against Georgia, throwing for three TDs in a huge road win. Even still, he threw for less than 150 yards, and a lot of the damages on his throws was done after the catches. In fairness, he is also a better runner than Hartline and obviously there would have been something to gain by starting a sophomore as opposed to a senior. Still, the idea that his play in 2009 earned him the right to the job carries no weight.

The win against Louisville this past week aside, Hartline was a mediocre 8-6 as a starter. But if you look at the 6 losses, that record is better than it sounds. Four of the losses were to Alabama and Florida. If I'm not mistaken, each of those game was contested while the other team was in the top 3 in the nation. The other losses were to South Carolina, and I firmly believe that UK would have won last year's game in Colombia had Hartline not been injured shortly after halftime. In fifteen career starts, he's never been the goat.

Mike was given a helmet sticker by Reece Davis on ESPN after throwing 2 TDs in the last five minutes against Arkansas in 2008, was SEC Offensive Player of the Week against Middle Tennessee State that same year and led the Cats to a second half comeback in the Liberty Bowl. He has had his moments.

Those who insisted Mossakowski should start don't merit a whole lot of discussion. They are the same ones who insisted Newton was better than Hartline without ever having seen him throw a pass in early 2009. These people are convinced a bird in the bush beats two in the hand. All I know if this: If the coaching staff thought he was the best guy for the job, he'd be throwing the ball.

I've been critical of Mike Hartline's ability in this space before. He certainly has a ceiling as a QB. He cannot make every single throw, cannot zip the ball into tight spots and makes his share of mistakes when facing a good defense. But he has done everything he was supposed to do to get himself into this spot, never embarrassed himself or the program and isn't exactly stopping off a UK on his way to NFL glory. Why he has become such a lightening rod over the last three years is puzzling. Is he a good MAC quarterback thrust into being a three year starter at an SEC school? Perhaps. But all that means is that he is better at it than you are, but not as good as Ryan Mallett. That doesn't make him a bad guy, it just makes him a like 99.9% of the other people in the world.

Mike Hartline deserves to hear cheers in Commonwealth tomorrow and throughout the season. Unless things go horribly awry in the few weeks, he is going to be your guy this year. Lets embrace him, because whether you are in his camp or not, it doesn't make sense to do much else.

Quick Thoughts on last Saturday

2010-09-07T22:12:00.002-04:00

Three days late and a dollar short to do any kind of real recap on Saturday's win over Louisville. Here are a few leftover thoughts before we turn our attention to WKU.

* One person who hasn't gotten much mention is CB Martavius Neloms. Neloms started for the second time on Saturday (having been pushed into duty against USC with both starters out last year). Officially he was credited with 3 tackles, one for a ten yard loss. Unofficially, he was all over the field. Mychal Bailey also played well, and I feel great about the Cats' secondary at the moment.

*That said, UK got nothing out of the Sam Linebacker spot. Jacob Dufrene was credited with two tackles though I don't even remember seeing him on the field. Ridge Wilson committed the roughing the passer penalty that basically kept Louisville alive for the last five minutes of the game. I've begun to wonder why Qua Huzzie is not working out there. It would seem that having Travathan, Huzzie and Ronnie Sneed on the field would be using our three best linebackers without sacrificing size or speed.

*I suppose no one is second guessing Strong's decision not to try an onside kick with 3:10 left, down by a touchdown. Conventional wisdom would be to kick away with two TOs left and that much time. Since they never stopped our offense without our help the entire game, I thought it was a tough call.

*If you watched my video preview, I'm sure you can guess that I was thrilled with Mike Hartline's performance in this game. Mike made some plays, never forced anything and threw the ball away when he needed to. These are the things I expect from him. It looks like his feel for the game has improved. He move out of the pocket and continued to look downfield, tucked the ball up and ran once or twice and just seemed to be more in his element.

*My father-in-law played halfback at UK before a bad knee and Charlie Bradshaw chased him away in 1962. He said something interesting about Derrick Locke after the game. "If he doesn't start protecting himself, he won't last past the third game". I don't know enough about playing the position to make that kind of assessment, so I thought that was interesting. What I know is this: Louisville got several clean licks on Derrick that look like they hurt. I'd like to see him get some rest over the next couple of weeks.

*New coach, same problems on special teams. Ryan Tydlacka is a good punter, but I think Joe Mansour's time as our placekicker is now. His redshirt was burned Saturday, so I have to think that was the plan all along.

*First half Kentucky was an eight win team. Second half Kentucky was a five win team.

*The Pizza Pit is a very nice facility. I won't lie, I enjoyed my chair back immensely.

*More coming as this week unfolds.

Final thought

2010-09-04T10:09:00.001-04:00

I've read all there is to read about this game and have come to the conclusion that, on paper, it is a frighteningly even matchup. The difference? There will only be one Randall Cobb on the field, and he'll be wearing blue. Go Cats.

Open Letter To Mike Hartline

2010-09-03T21:46:00.001-04:00

Speaking of Steve Johnson

2010-09-03T14:08:00.002-04:00

I'm slightly embarassed to say that this might be one of the ten happiest moments of my life.

Stevie says its almost Gameday

2010-09-03T12:41:00.001-04:00

Chip Cosby Visits UK Football Fan

2010-09-01T21:51:00.007-04:00

Today on UK Football Fan we are visited by Lexington Herald-Leader writer Chip Cosby. Aside from being a hell of a good guy, Chip does an excellent job covering the Football Cats for the local paper and has been real generous in agreeing to do this Q and A with me for the second year in a row. A link his UK Football blog is on the right and here.

Questions below are mine, Chip's responses are in bold.

1. Last year you correctly predicted in this space that Sam Maxwell
would be the veteran Cat to blow up in 2009. What about 2010?

I'm going to go with another guy on the defensive side, Mychal Bailey. The fact that he came in and won the starter's job at safety in just three weeks after arriving from junior-college speaks volumes about how much the coaching staff trusts his talent. A sub 4.4 guy and a big hitter, he could immediately become a household name as he gets more comfortable throughout the season.

2. Mike Hartline won the starting job for the Louisville game, but
there has been no heaping praise for his play this summer. This makes me a
little nervous but the optimist in me hopes that it's the coaching staff's
effort to manage expectations. Have you heard anything that indicates that
2010 Hartline will be a step up from the 2008-2009 version?

Hartline has his critics, but I do believe he'll be better in 2010. Let's face it. He is what he is. He doesn't have a cannon for an arm, and he's not going to overwhelm you with his speed. He looked horrible against Florida and Alabama, but so did Arkansas' Ryan Mallett, who might end up being the No. 1 pick in next year's Draft. He has done some good things: the late comeback against Arkansas, MVP of the Liberty Bowl, the solid first half at South Carolina. Also, he's a fifth-year senior who understands the offense, and seems to have regained the respect and trust of his teammates after he made some critical comments after being benched two years ago. I think the offense will once again rely heavily on Randall Cobb and Derrick Locke. They just need Hartline to step up and make the throws when they need him to make them, and I think he can do that.

3. Hope springs eternal in the Commonwealth, and the schedule sets up
nicely, but looking at it empirically, this team has a lot of holes to fill
defensively. Outside of Travathan, Guy and Burden, where are you expecting
the production to come from?

They really need some guys to come through up front, particularly at tackle. Ricky Lumpkin needs to become a high-impact player, and it would be nice if they could get something out of Shane McCord. Donte Rumph should be an impact player once he shakes off the rust and gets into shape. I think DeQuin Evans is set for a solid year at end.

4. Setting aside K Joe Mansour, who is kind of a special case, what
true freshman do you see making an impact for this year's Cats, if any?

Interestingly enough, Mansour might not make as big an impact as originally thought, as Ryan Tydlacka is currently the starting placekicker. Jerrell Priester will definitely see time at corner, and Nermin Delic is in the rotation at end. While the Cats have plenty of depth at tailback, the coaches really like Raymond Sanders. Tyler Robinson is backing up Jordan Aumiller at tight end, and big things are expected of Rumph.

5. What are the biggest change you see thus far in the Joker era? Is
there any difference with how the team and staff interact with the media.
Understanding that nearly all the practices have been closed to the media,
do you have any feel for how the Cats might look different on the field this
year?

It's really hard to tell with practices being closed. You pretty much have to go on what you hear from the coaches and people who are close enough to the program to be able to go watch practice. But we won't really know for sure until the ball is kicked off. I've heard plenty of stories out of fall camp over the years that became myths once the lights came on. Not much has changed with Joker as far as the media goes. He's been accessible and friendly, although he doesn't reveal injury information quite to the extent that Rich Brooks did.

6. Do any streaks end this year?

I know it sounds crazy, but I think South Carolina and Tennessee both go down this year. Fact of the matter is, South Carolina has been no better than UK over the last 3-4 years overall; they've just managed to find ways to beat the Cats head-to-head. With the game being at home and UK coming so close in past years, I think they finally get it done. I know that Spurrier owns UK, but the Spurrier mystique is nowhere near what it used to be.
I also think this is the year they get Tennessee. There's all kinds of turmoil going on down there, and I'm not sure just how Derek Dooley will handle it. The talent's down, probation is possibly on the horizon. Plus, UT could already be out of bowl contention by the time the game rolls around. I know we've heard this before, but if it doesn't happen this year, it may never happen.

Projected SEC Standings/Bowl Projections

2010-08-30T09:24:00.003-04:00

Here are unscientific and way too soon projected SEC standings, together with resulting predictions regarding bowl game slots.

SEC East

Florida
11-1, 7-1
Sugar

Georgia
8-4, 5-3
Outback

USC
7-5, 4-4
Gator

UK
7-5, 3-5
Music City

UT
5-7, 2-6

Vandy
1-11, 0-8

SEC West

Alabama
12-0, 8-0
National Campionship

Arkansas
9-3, 5-3
Capital One

LSU
8-4, 5-3
Cotton

Auburn
7-5, 3-5
Chick-Fil-A

Ole Miss
7-5, 3-5
Liberty

Mississippi State
5-7, 2-6

Keys to the season

2010-08-28T09:09:00.004-04:00

As spring ball ended and the schedule started to shape up, I felt that the biggest key to the 2010 season for the Cats would be quarterback play. If Kentucky could mount an effective vertical attack on offense, the schedule set up for 8 wins. If it could not, we were looking at the potential end to our bowl streak.

With the quarterbacking decision made, at least in the short run, I am placing less emphasis on this now. I'll talk more about Joker's election to go with Mike Hartline in a separate post. For now, I think we are going to know what to expect from the quarterback position based on several things left unspoken in fall camp. There was no ringing endorsement, no claims of vast improvement and no easy decision. It is safe to say that the quarterback who started 14 games for the Wildcats in 2008 and 2009 is the one you'll see on the field against Louisville September 4.

So, what are the important variables:

1. The Defensive Tackle position has been as important to the 2006-2009 resurgence of the Kentucky program as anything. Past UK teams have lacked size up front and were constantly blown off the ball. Guys like Myron Pryor, Ventrell Jenkins and Corey Peters have helped to change all that. There looks to be a significant dropoff here. Ricky Lumpkin returns as a starter. There is some experience around him with Shane McCord and Mark Crawford, but not a lot. The Cats were really counting on Soph. Mister Cobble to come in and be the second starter, but he is ineligible. Can these guys, or surprise last minute recruit Elliot Porter step up? If not, our run defense may really struggle.
2. Once thought to be a team strength, the secondary is starting to look like a question mark. The Cats were set at corner with Randall Burden and Paul Warford, then Warford got bit by the academic bug. Once thought to be a sure fire star, UK is still wondering if the light is going to come on completely for FS Winston Guy. The good news, even with Warford out there is quality depth at corner, and several newcomers will challenge for time at safety.
3. The O-Line should have sufficient talent to replace four departing starters. With position battles still going on at Center and RT, how well they will gel as a unit is a great unknown. With what will likely be a heavy reliance on the running game, the big guys will be carrying this offense.
4. Injuries. As always, the Cats' big bugaboo. Can we remain healthy? Last year Cobb and Locke suffered dings and dents, but were largely able to remain on the field throughout the year. Had either or both of these guys gone down, it would have been a long season. That will also be the case this year. And as always, the Cats need to avoid a late season swoon that sometimes happens when our guys get ground down. The November 6 game against Charleston Southern and November 20th bye should help.
5. Joker. Phillips has served notice over the past 8 months that it isn't going to be business as usual at UK. What does he have in store for 2010? The new boss wasn't the same as the old boss in the preseason. Will there be new wrinkles on the field as well?

Season preview: Home stretch

2010-08-28T07:36:00.003-04:00

After about a three week hiatus, I'm back to give the final segment of my season preview. If you haven't been keeping up, we've already looked at the Non conference games, a huge three game Keeneland style homestand, and a couple of early season road games. At this point, we have UK at 5-4, with wins over YouofL, WKU, Akron, Georgia and Charleston Southern as well as losses against Florida, Ole Miss, Auburn and South Carolina.

Today we look at three more winnable games which, along with the aforementioned laugher against Charleston Southern, make up the last third of the season.

UK visits Mississippi State on October 30th. The Bulldogs should be roughly 4-4 going into this game and still entertaining bowl hopes. Expectation are higher in Dan Mullins' second year. Fortunately, Anthony Dixon is now a San Francisco 49er. During the Cats' current bowl streak the road team is 4-0 in this game, though why is anyone's guess. (It should tell you something else about what Rich Brooks accomplished that his teams went to bowls in 2007 and 2009 despite losing to Mississippi State.) By this point in the season, UK should have settled into a rhythm with its quarterback situation, and the new defensive players given a chance to gel. I like us to win another road squeeker. UK 24 MSU 21

After the Charleston Southern game on November 6, Vandy comes back to town on November 13th. Cats fans will recall a rainy, freezing cold night at Commonwealth in 2008 when Vandy got bowl eligible by beating us 31-24. The Cats brainfarted their way to a 24-10 halftime deficit, then proceeded to piss away their comeback with stupid penalties, including a brain searing three roughing the punter fouls. Well, this isn't the 2008 Vandy team. Coming off a winless SEC campaign in 2009, Vandy figures to have trouble scoring points against SEC competition. Led by All-SEC LB Chris Marve and what is said to be a solid secondary, the D should be solid. Like last year, expect this game to be Cobb, Locke, Cobb, Locke. As always, this game will be chippy, but as in most season's past, we'll have more than enough for the 'Dores. UK 24 Vandy 14.

On paper, this is the year that we finally go down and take one from Tennessee. We've been so close so many times. Derrick Dooley said that on September 4th half of his starters will be seeing their first major college snap. Think about that for a minute. That is a program in shambles. When the Cats visit Neyland on November 27th, the Vols will likely be out of the bowl picture, playing for nothing. So how could I not pick our boys to win? As I said last year, too much pain has been inflicted for me to think rationally about this game. Even though hope springs eternal. . . .UT 28 UT 24.

So there you go, another 7-5, 3-5 season with a repeat trip to the Music City Bowl. If my season previews are starting to sound like a broken record, such is life. But there are a lot of games for the Cats to go out and get this year. Will start talking about how that might happen this week.

Early season road games

2010-08-10T20:54:00.007-04:00

Today I continue our Pulp Fictionesque, non-linear look at UK's schedule and where it might lead us. If you aren't caught up, take a look at my most recent posts on the non-conference games as well as a critical three game October homestand. Of the seven games I've picked thus far, I have the Cats at 5-2, with home losses to South Carolina and Auburn.

After three non-conference games to start the schedule, the Cats will travel in back to back weeks with a Bataan death march down to Gainesville and a trip to Oxford.

If you are a college football fan, you have a good handle on the outlook as Kentucky heads to Florida on September 25th. The bad news? It is the only one on the schedule the Cats simply cannot win. Yes, Kentucky had some competitive games with Florida in the last decade, Tim Tebow is gone, our program is greatly improved and it has to happen sometime. Simply put, Florida will once again be putting too much talent on the field for our guys to compete.

There is good news. Assuming UK gets past Louisville, it will be almost assuredly be 3-0 going into this game, albeit without having played a top 60 division one program. This game comes along at a perfect time to allow us to not get big headed, and to see who we really are. A good showing here could set the tone for the rest of the season, not unlike our solid effort at Alabama in 2008. In any event, absent injury, there is no downside to having Florida on your schedule in the fourth game. That said, Florida 45 UK 14.

The addition of Jeremy Masoli adds intrigue to the Cats' matchup against the Ole Miss Rebels at The Grove. Ole Miss was looking ripe for the plucking with all of its offensive production graduated and having come off a mildly disappointing year. A year ago, the Rebs were a sexy top 10 pick and Jevan Snead considered a sure fire first rounder. Instead, they ended up with four losses and Snead is coaching the scout team at his old middle school. Houston "Left" Nutt is clearly feeling the heat, as he has brought in Masoli, who was dismissed from Oregon after continued legal troubles. The kid has a world of talent and is a hell of a leader. Nutt wouldn't take the heat for bringing him in only to have Masoli sit the bench. On defense, five of the front seven starters return, including All-SEC caliber DT Jerrell Powe and DE Kentrell Locket. I can see this being one game where UK has trouble moving the ball on the ground. As you know, that spells trouble. This could be a war of attrition, and it is imminently winnable. Still I see: Ole Miss 21 UK 17. On a side note, I really want to get this one, because I'll be following the Cats to Oxford this year. Holla.

Homestand

2010-08-04T22:13:00.002-04:00

We continue our season preview/predictions with a look at what should be a critical three game homestand in October. Three games against beatable but capable SEC East teams. Three games that can make or break a season.

Last year it was back to back road weeks at USC and Auburn. With the way the schedule shaped up, my preseason hopes were pinned on getting a rip in those two games and starting the season 3-3. Of course, the rest was history. After a narrow, no Wildcat on the 2 point conversion, miss at Spurrier Tech, the Cats got touchdown runs from three different Quarterbacks and stole one at Auburn. We used that momentum to turn in a pretty good regular season for a team that had modest expectations.

This year, the Cats have three straight winnable but challenging tilts in games 6, 7 and 8. Dead in the heart of the season. Getting one win would be satisfying, two huge. Three and the season could be a magical one. The Cats beat two of these opponents, Georgia and Auburn, on their own turf last year. The third, USCJr., has had our goat of late, but always shows up with comparable talent. Anything is possible in this stretch. As true as that statement is, so it this one: If these games were played tomorrow, UK would not be favored in any one.

How might it shake out?

On October 9, The Fighting Chizeks come to town. Auburn could be flying high at this point of the season, 4-1 or 5-0 (the Cats should be no worse than 3-2). Auburn has to replace QB Chris Todd and 1,300 yard rusher Ben Tate, but should be in good hands with JC transfer Cam Newton and several talented backs. The whole O-Line and both starting wide receivers return. The Tigers' defense was not good last year, but with seven returning starters and Chizek's focus on that side of the ball, it should be much improved. I think UK has much more than a puncher's chance in this game. If our anointed quarterback has found a groove by then, we should score some points. Still, Auburn should be improved this year and frankly, I cannot see beating them back to back years. Aub 28-21.

October 16th bring the Gamecocks and a game that could be a battle for the upper eschelon of the SEC East. I'm still having Alshon Jeffrey flashbacks from last year's game. Our secondary was depleted, and the freshman wideout caught everything in site. I wonder if he is going to be the next in the Munnerlyn, Norwood line of Cats killers. In any event, I cannot predict a win against these guys again until one comes. I just can't. USC 21-13.

The homestand closes with the Georgia Bulldogs on October 23rd. The complexion of that game will be shaped somewhat by what happens up until that point. Georgia will be thin at the quarterback position and thick just about everywhere else on offense. Washaun Ealey, who was not technically a starter last year, will be one of the SEC's best backs. A.J. Green is one of the SEC's best receivers. The entire offensive line returns. As set as UGa appears on O, it is a mess defensively. Mark Richt blew out his whole defensive staff and will change schemes to a 3-4. Few starters return. Even though last year's defense was not good, it had several talented players who won't be back, most notably LB Rennie Curren. I like Kentucky in this game, especially if it is riding some momentum. The Dogs couldn't hold last year's team under 30 at home. Can they really do it now? UK 34-31.

Keep in mind these are some tough predictions. I would not be surprised if UK won or lost any one of these games. The season will be made or broken here.

Season preview: Non conference games

2010-07-30T14:45:00.004-04:00

For this year's game by game preview, we'll look at the regular season in semi-chronological sections. UK starts with three straight non-conference games, hits Florida and Ole Miss, then slides into a crucial three game homestand against beatable conference foes. After a trip to Starkville, Charleston Southern and Vandy visit. Then, of course, the Cats close out the year in Knoxville. We'll start with a look at the non-conference schedule, including the late season game.

On September 4, at 3:30pm the Cats take on what should be a slightly overmatched Louisville squad at a recently expanded Papa John's Stadium. Two years ago we walked into the pizza bowl and rode a surging defense to an easy 27-2 victory. Last year was a different story, when the homestanding Cats needed a Whodini act by Randall Cobb, a 100 Yard KO return by Derrick Locke and a serious miscue on a kick return to hold off the Cards 31-27.
The 2009 game had a pall over it which will continue this year; if the Cats are going to go bowling, they cannot afford to lose the game. The Cards are too weak, and there aren't enough other wins on the schedule.
Former 1000 yard rusher Victor Anderson missed the end of last season with a broken clavicle and is listed behind Bilal Powell on the Cards' depth chart. On the plus side, the Cards return four starters on the offensive line and have a weapon in senior mighty mite WR Doug Beamont. It is not yet clear who will be under center, but Adam Froman, a 6-4 senior, is your leader in the clubhouse.
The Cards defense returns little from a unit that simply wasn't very good.
I'd look for this game to be high scoring. U of L should come out with guns blazing and will be testing an inexperienced UK linebacking crew. By the same token, I'd be shocked if the Cards can contain Cobb, Locke and Chris Matthews. We are on the road, but we will have a better squad. In the end Kentucky spoils Charlie Strong's debut 34-21.

On September 11th, WKU comes to town. The game will be televised on College Sports South at 7:30pm. I have a soft spot for the Hilltoppers. Many friends either went there or have children going there. Western has a strong Henry Clay connection with WR Clark Jeter, LB Mike Federspiel and FB Rod Johnson all on the squad. Western will come into this game fresh off a trip to Nebraska, playing "the" Nebraska, so I think they'll know what to expect in this game and not be overwhelmed. That said, WKU is still looking for its footing in Division 1A and is one of its worst programs, not having won a game last year. If this game is competitive, then the Cats are in deep trouble for the rest of the year. UK 31-WKU 7.

UK isn't going to strain itself much in the early going. Akron visits on September 18th. The game will be at 7:00pm and televised on Fox Sports South. Akron was a 3-9 MAC team last year, finishing ahead of only Miami (OH) in the MAC east. The Zips return starting QB Patrick Nicely, as well as their two leading rushers. Nicely is not much of a running threat (42 carries for 46 years, 0TD in 2009) which is always nice to hear if you are a Cats fans in a game like this. Still, I see the Zips being more game than the 'Toppers, and other than Louisville, this is the non-conference game I'm most concerned with. UK 35 Akron 21.

The Cats final game outside the SEC comes November 6th at home against FCS foe Charleston Southern. To give you an idea, Charleston Southern plays in a stadium without a field house with locker rooms so far away that occasionally opposing teams will sit under a tent at halftime instead of returning. Again, there is no reason to think this game will be competitive. It will be important, though, as it begins and end of season stretch that includes a home game against Vandy and ends at Tennessee. The Cats need to play hard, get the starters off the field and win convincingly. UK 42 CSU 3.

Second Annual Mad Men Quotes Season Preview

2010-07-25T08:19:00.005-04:00

Summer television sucks. I don't get into Who Wants to Look Like a Jackass and Who Wants to Marry a Jackass shows, so that pretty well relegates me to reruns or covering something on DVD I haven't seen before. This summer, my wife and I dove into Veronica Mars, a show that survived three seasons on the WB and was cancelled. Cancelled shows fall into two categories. 95% are cancelled because they suck in execution or were terrible ideas to begin with. No one was ever going to watch Cop Rock or Cavemen. The other 5% are cancelled because people who watch TV are idiots. Put Veronica Mars in the "Arrested Development 5%" camp. Smart writing, great characters, appealing cast, interesting feel and (take my man card now) one of the better romance stories ever played out on television. Just a heck of a show on every level. Watching the show end on DVD was tough because the creators were clearly not sure whether the show would end when it wrapped. The finale was full of hedging. While we are on this tangent, Logan Echolls (played by Jason Dohring, who'd be a big star if I ran Hollywood) is in Hawkeye Pierce, Tim Riggins territory as all-time favorite TV character.

But I'm not here today to talk about Veronica. Tonight, as many of you are keenly aware, is the premiere of season 4 of Mad Men. Folks are pumped for Mad Men not only because its amazing, but because we've been watching bullshit for the last two months. (Well, you've been watching bullshit, I've been watching a show about a 17 year old girl who solves high school mysteries that didn't get picked up for a fourth season on the CW). The folks at AMC know we are starving for something good on the tube, which makes the mid-summer release a brilliant move.

As ready as I am to watch Don Draper and Co. tonight, I'm also in the mood to kick start UK Football Fan and get ready for football season. So, for the second year in a row, lets get a little season preview going, Mad Men style. This isn't my whole season preview, but its a good way to kick things off, so to speak.

"I want a Hilton on the moon, that's where we're headed."

Operation Win has gotten off with a bang. Joker has put his stamp on the program in a couple of ways. First, he has served notice that this is his team. He immediately let go of assistants Rick Petri and Jimmy Heggins and replaced them with guys who he thought would be better recruiters. These guys weren't considered bad coaches, and hadn't been on hot seat. No matter, Joker wanted what he wanted, and didn't worry about stepping on toes to get it. For reasons unknown, Phillips waited until June to let special teams assistant Steve Ortmeyer go, then replaced him with Greg Nord, a former UofL recruiting coordinator (when they were damned good). Secondly, Joker's emphasis on recruiting has already borne fruit. UK sits with a top 25 class for 2011, including Four-Star DB Glen Faulkner and several Three-Star players. As always, the challenge will be to keep those guys solid and have them sign the dotted line next year, but so far, so good.

The only big setback this offseason appears to be in the classroom. Starting corner Paul Warford will not play for the Wildcats again, and DT Mister Cobble's eligibility is also in jeopardy. Still, operation win seems to be in full effect.

"I hate to break it to you, but there is no big lie, there is no system, the universe is indifferent"

Who will quarterback the Cats this year? Joker has taken the bold and correct stand by saying that whoever wins the competition will be the guy who can make plays, not simply manage the game. In Randall Cobb, Chris Matthews and Larod King, UK has its best receivers since the Burton, Johnson, Tamme, Lyons days. This offense needs to carry the team, and it has to throw to do that. I am indifferent to who quarterbacks this team. Except in spurts, Hartline has never impressed me. Newton, who is a great kid, did a good job of not losing games last year. But the offense was so limited with him out there, I have to wonder whether he can ever be that guy. Mossakowski is the great unknown, but if the Cats go with him they'll be passing over guys with a lot of experience for someone who has none.

What I am not indifferent to is this: Kentucky can win 8 or 9 games this year if their quarterback can consistently complete passes downfield and avoid costly mistakes. If we are dinking and dunking and deliberatly going three and out to avoid turning the ball over, like we did late last year, this is a six win team. Hopefully.

"If you don't like whats being said, just change the conversation"

Don't believe what you read in any national source, the Cats' Offensive Line is going to be just fine this year. Technically, Stuart Hines is the only returning starter, but that is misleading. A number of guys have played a lot of football for us over the years. I wanted to talk about this in more detail, but Duncan Cavanah at Kentucky Sports Radio has already done the legwork and since he writes better than I do, there isn't much point in repeating it. His main points are these: Cats linemen have collectively played in 156 games and started 31, converted DE Chandler Burdon could be a stud at Left Tackle and the right side of our line will be huge and skilled. I really believe that the o-line will be a strength of the team. There is depth at every position, so if a guy isn't producing, he'll get yanked. I want to change the conversation and say this: I'll be disappointed if the offensive line skips a beat this year.

"I didn't get where I am by dwelling on the past."

While I realize we will have Tennessee on the road, they are ripe for the plucking. Their leading returning rusher gained 94 yards last year. No one on the roster has thrown a college pass. Eric Berry isn't walking through that door. We might be playing for something that night while they might not. Hell, we were picked to finish ahead of them in the SEC East this year. None of that matters, though, if the Cats cannot put the past behind them and win this game.

"I'm Peggy Olson and I want to smoke some marijuana"

I'll never understand why, with games on the line at USC (2 point conversion attempt) and against UT (3rd and goal at the 3, TD wins game, entire stadium knows we cannot win in overtime), we didn't run plays out of the Wildcat last year. While I expect the Cats' offense to be improved overall, I'll be looking for the Wildcat again in these situations, and answers if we fail using the conventional offense.

"I keep going a lot of places and ending up somewhere I've already been."

Subject to what I've already said about the quarterback situation, and with the understanding that the schedule set-up is nearly ideal, I cannot shake the belief that this is a 6 or 7 win team, much as it has been the last three years. I see wins against WKU, Akron and Charleston Southern. We will get 2 of 3 from Louisville, Mississippi State and Vandy. A three week homestand against Auburn, USC and Georgia will yield one win. That is six wins with away games against Ole Miss and UT unaccounted for. More on that to come.

Ortmayer out, Nord in.

2010-07-02T14:46:00.003-04:00

News comes today that Steve Ortmayer is out as UK's special teams and tight ends coach. He'll be replaced by former UK and U of L assistant Greg Nord, who had just joined Ron Zook's staff at Illinois in December. Nord was a casualty when Kragthorpe was blown out, but he had been on the staff there for 15 years. As recruiting coordinator, he obviously enjoyed a fair amount of success. Nord was an assistant at Kentucky under Jerry Claiborne.

On this site, I've been openly critical of the job Ortmayer did with the special teams. My thinking was this: Since it has little choice if it wants to compete in the SEC, UK regularly uses its front line players on special teams. We've consistently failed to execute simple blocking schemes on punts and kicks over the past few years. Since the same kids who do everything else are involved, that has to come back to coaching. It is too painful to recount all the times this has killed us.

True, we have had some success during Ortmeyer's tenure both returning and blocking kicks. I believe, though, that this is also a function of having the team's best players performing these tasks. Maybe that isn't fair, but you cannot draw up Derrick Locke's speed on a chalkboard, that's for sure.

I don't have an opinion on Nord. Most people seem to see him as an upgrade. He has a good pedigree. Hopefully he'll help recruiting in Louisville, which will be prime battleground for the program in the near future. At the end, I just feel like this was a move Joker had to make if he was going to put his stamp on the program.

The most curious thing about the move is the timing. Presumably, Joker could have fired Ortmayer when he let Jimmy Heggins and Rick Petri go at the beginning of the year. Maybe Nord's situation changed and he became available. My best guess is that Joker did not want to risk alienating Rich Brooks right after he took the job, and simply bided his time. After all, Brooks and Ortmayer had been together a while and many expected him to step down voluntarily when Brooks left.

Finally, say this for Joker. In his first six months at the helm, he landed three desired position coaches who made arguably lateral moves (from Arkansas, Mississippi State and Illinois) to be here. He has landed a fourth guy from a lower D-1 school (Tee Martin) who may the the best hire of all. He means business, and I like that.

68 Days

2010-06-29T09:35:00.002-04:00

With the biggest night in UK basketball history now out of the way, there is a whiff of football in the air.
UK Football Fan will make its return on or about August 1. In the meantime, you can follow me on Twitter here.

New SEC Bowl Lineup

2010-03-09T12:17:00.002-05:00

As the offseason progresses, we are about halfway between national signing day and spring practice, basically the deadest college football period of the year. With that in mind, lets take a look at the new and improved SEC Bowl lineup that will go into effect this year and should hold firm through 2013. The shakeup was the result of the SEC signing a four year deal with the Gator Bowl for a game that will feature yet another SEC v. Big 10 New Year's Day matchup. Not coincidentally, the Independence Bowl has dropped its association with the SEC. The decision was reportedly based in part on being bumped down a spot in the pecking order, and the increased chance that, as in year's past, no SEC team would be available to take the slot in future years.

Obviously, the SEC has once again made out like a bandit with the switchout. This is a boon for fans of middling to lower tier football schools (read: Us) as the league's worst bowl destination has been replaced by a potentially warm and closer, if not exactly picturesque, Jacksonville.

The Gator has apparently been promised to have at least the sixth pick (seven if the SEC places 2 teams in the BCS) among SEC schools, placing it just behind the Chick-Fil-A Bowl in the pecking order. Given the CFA's history with the SEC and its strength (the game sells out annually) I don't anticipate that lie will improve. Assuming so, below is a look at the new lineup. Recall that the SEC will almost always received an at-large BCS berth, which effectively gives it 10 slots instead of 9.

1) BCS (??)

2) Capital One Bowl v. Big 10 #2 (Jan. 1)

3,4) Cotton Bowl v. Big 12 #2 (Jan. 2)

3, 4) Outback Bowl v. Big 10 #3 (Jan. 1)

5) Chick-Fil-A Bowl v. ACC #2 (Jan. 1)

6) Gator Bowl v. Big 10 #4 or #5 (Jan 1)

7, 8) Music City Bowl v. ACC #5, 6 or 7 (Jan. 27)

7,8) Liberty Bowl v. Conference USA Champion (Jan. 2)

9) Papajohns.com Bowl v. Big East #5 (Jan. 2)

Apologies

2010-02-04T10:22:00.002-05:00

I had a number of hits on here yesterday, which makes sense since it was national signing day. UK Football Fan came up with absolutely nothing for the occasion, other than a couple of Tweets designed to appear on the site. That is on me. The big reason is that I am not a recruiting guy. I know some names, etc. but that is it. So, this makes everything I would say on the topic a regurgitation of what I read on The Cats Pause, KSR or the Herald-Leader. As you know, if I cannot add my own spin or expand on something I've seen, I don't like to write about it.

Which brings me to a couple of points. UK Football Fan will be going into hiatus until August, unless some large news about the program breaks. I've already left Joker's coaching shakeups and national signing day alone, so you can imagine that the news will probably have to be pretty major. Of course, with starting a new job and trying to get my own law practice off the ground, January was kind of rough. Still, not much will be said until the new football season beckons.

Secondly, I decided at the end of the season that I either need to grow this site, go write on another one, or stop doing this entirely. I think where I've settled is with adding one or two writers. The idea would be to produce at least one column each day of the season. I'd be looking for some combination of writing skill, knowledge of the football program, and connections with either UK or the Kentucky sports journalism community. Someone who knew more than jack shit about recruiting would also be helpful. If you are interested, shoot me a line.

Brooks hangs it up

2010-01-04T22:08:00.002-05:00

As I'm sure you know by now, Rich Brooks called it quits after 7 seasons as the head football coach of the Kentucky Wildcats. I have mixed feelings about it. Usually you see a coach go out on top or on the bottom. Brooks certainly wasn't run out of town, but he isn't exactly riding off into the sunset either. At 68, he had some coaching left in him. He even admitted in his presser that his family wanted him to continue.
In the end, I think a couple of things were in play. First, Brooks is tired, and really did not want to coach any more. If UK had won its bowl game or ended the Tennessee streak, he would have had a very easy decision. Instead, he had to decide if he could make it one more year to try to end on a more positive note. This bleeds into what I believe is the second factor, i.e. that Brooks decided that he has taken UK Football about as far as he can take it. At his age and given what he has accomplished the last four years, he sees himself as a steward for the program as much as a coach. He didn't want to wait around another year because inside he knew it was unlikely the results would be much different.
The reasons for this are open to debate. While otherwise very upbeat and respectful, Brooks basically started his remarks with a laundry list of facility upgrades he felt could move the program forward. His message was clear, the administration can say it supports football, but it hasn't shown the will to make it all happen. A fair point perhaps, but it is only part of the story. The truth is, the same could be said about Brooks.
Before you get up in arms, I actually mean this in a good way. First, Brooks valued loyalty ahead of doing everything he had to in order to win. Just ask Steve Ortmeyer, who should have been replaced as special teams coach two years ago. More importantly, he had too much integrity to lead Kentucky to the promise land of New Years Day games and top 25 rankings (something that almost certainly cannot be done here without cutting a few corners). Answer this, with Mike Hartline waiting in the wings, does Urban Meyer throw Curtis Pulley off his team for a couple of misdemeanor arrests? No way in hell. I don't know that this makes Meyer a better or worse football coach, but it certainly makes Brooks more principled.
In the end, here is what you can say about Brooks. He came here and eventually won games and went to Bowls like Hal Mumme, while being the kind of man Bill Curry was. If you ask me, that is a damned good legacy.
The question now is where do we go from here. Joker and Barnhart will ostensibly hammer out a deal shortly, though I think it very odd Phillips wasn't there today. I've heard at least one rumor of a substantial staff shakeup which turns the focus from X's and O's to recruiting. Phillips will not be a Brooks clone. Like any longtime assistant who has been around, he'll have his own ideas about running things. When he wakes up a week from now, the big decisions will be his.
Before long, Brooks will be waking up in a beautiful home on Oregon's McKenzie River. I hope when he looks out the window he thinks of all the good things he did here and not what might have been.

2010 Preview

2010-01-01T08:43:00.002-05:00

As we start 2010 and UK Football Fan winds down, it is time to talk about next season. Right now, the coaching situation still hangs in the air. I believe the longer this drags on the more likely Rich Brooks is returning. My guess is things are going on behind the scenes. Barnhart was recently quoted in the Herald Leader regarding his desire for Brooks to return AND defending the athletic department's support of the football program. This smacks of some back room dealing and Brooks using whatever leverage he can to improve the support of the program.

I personally hate to see PawPaw go out on a sour note, and I'd like to see him take the victory lap he deserves. Announcing that 2010 will be his last year would be the way to go. I also think right now, with players and fans alike questioning the play calling, is not the best timing for Joker taking over the program. We'll see.

Looking to 2010, the first thing that strikes me is how well the schedule sets up. Alabama falls off, and is replaced by Ole Miss. The Cats get a couple of their middling opponents, Auburn and South Carolina, at home. Two games we seem destined to lose anyway (Florida and Tennessee) will be on the road. Finally, Akron, Western Kentucky and Charleston Southern don't exactly strike fear in the hearts of men. Louisville will be improved under Charlie Strong (now I can say it, yes Kraigthorpe had to go), but the boys in red will have a talent gap to overcome still when playing the Cats for the next year or two.

It appears that Morgan Newton will have the inside track on the quarterback position, what with Mike Hartline not even getting off the bench in the Music City Bowl. If the Cats cannot open the playbook any more than they did under Newton this year, I implore them to go in a different direction. Despite the five wins we eecked out under Morgan, the offense looked positively Uzelacian. If we cannot do more than run quarterback draws and throw screens on passing downs, we are in trouble. I like Morgan Newton and Mike Hartline both very much. I just hope someone steps up to the plate, be it one of them or Ryan Mossakowski.

The offense line is losing a lot, but we'll be in better shape than most people think. Stuart Hines will be an All-SEC candidate next year. Brad Durham, though not technically a returning starter, played a lot of football for us this year. Matt Smith, Marcus Davis, Jake Lanefski and Sam Simpson will all challenge for time on the interior line, and Larry Warford and/or Billy Joe Murphy will probably step up big at tackle. It may take some time, but I think a new unit will gel nicely by the meat of the schedule.

As I've mentioned previously, the WRs will be the strength of the offense next year, assuming someone can get them the ball. I'd love to see Cobb have a legitimate #1 receiver season, catching 50-60 balls. He has it in him. I like Chris Matthews and Larod King as #2 and 3 receivers with another year under their belts. Tight end is a question mark, but then again, it has been since Jacob Tamme departed. I'd like to see Brooks and Co. move sure handed walk-on Nick Melillo to that spot and see what he can do.

Derrick Locke and the Turtle can hold it down in the backfield. Of course, the Cats will have to replace Fullback John Conner, who is graduating along with AJ Nance, his #1 backup.

On defense, it is the ultimate case of good news/bad news. On the front, the Cats lose defensive MVP-DT Corey Peters. The good news: this was probably the deepest position on the team. Starter Ricky Lumpkin and contributors Mark Crawford and Shane McCord all return. At end, Dequin Evans and Taylor Windham, two unexpected revelations in 2009 will form a pretty good tandem. Chandler Burden gives us experienced depth.

The big question mark is Linebacker, where the Cats must replace All-Sec performers Sam Maxwell and Micah Johnson. Danny Trevathan will return as a starter on the weak side. He is poised for a breakout year. Presumably Ronnie Snead will start in the middle. He performed well when called upon this year. The strongside spot would appear to be wide open. Jacob Dufrene filled in for Maxwell in the Music City Bowl and I honestly don't remember seeing him in on a play. Ridge Wilson will also get a look here. The staff is also high on Qua Huzzie, though it is hard to see both he and Trevathan starting unless Danny puts on some weight and is moved to the strong side. Obviously, whoever plays will be filling some big shoes.

The secondary should be another strength for the Cats. Randall Burdon and Paul Warford have played a ton football for us and should wear the role of full-time CB starters well. There is depth at the position with guys like Martavious Neloms and Cartier Rice having been forced to fill in this year with all the injuries. Winston Guy is a potential star at free safety. Big Blue Nation was poised for Guy to blow up last year with all the hype the coaches heaped on him. He has a solid, if unspectacular year. Maybe this is the year. Matt Lentz is ready to be a full time starter at SS, but I can see some other guys like Greg Wilson getting a look here as well.

So there we go. Says here the difference between 5 and 8 regular season wins is finding a quarterback competent enough in the downfield passing game that we can go back to running a regular offense. Filling the other holes is important, but I have enough confidence in our newfound depth and recruiting success that I think those things will take care of themselves.

Have a Happy New Year.

Quick Postgame Summary

2009-12-28T01:02:00.002-05:00

This was no doubt a frustrating night for UK Football Fan. First off, it was crazy cold outside, which made standing up and going nuts in the stands almost impossible. We brought the kids, and I resorted to sitting my son on my lap to try to stay warm. So basically, I was planted to my chair.
I could not have been more wrong about how the game developed. In the beginning, Clemson looked like the team that didn't come to play. We had chances to really take control, and outside of the opening drive, didn't capitalize. Then Clemson started to assert its running game, and the UK offense became one dimensional and just kind of imploded. I don't understand why Mike Hartline did not play. I cannot imagine a situation that would have called for it more.
The saddest moment was Trevard Lindley falling down and looking up to watch a Clemson receiver haul in a touchdown pass. I've never seen a player's career fall apart like this, and I felt horrible for him.
I also understand Micah went down with a minute or so left. I must have missed it. A shame for him, and I hope it isn't serious.
In any event, I had a great weekend and am already looking forward to next season. We'll talk more in the coming days, as Brooks is reportedly "80% sure" he isn't coming back and will apparently decide in the next week.

Chinless MCB Preview

2009-12-26T18:07:00.002-05:00

I'm in Nashville

2009-12-25T15:55:00.004-05:00

The UK Football Fan household is now basking in the afterglow of Christmas. I am waiting for my son to get off the Wii so I can get back to playing DJ Hero. Since he isn't going to do so voluntarily for some time, now is a good time for a blog post. Or not. I actually started this post on Christmas afternoon, aborted mission, and am now finishing up from the Opryland Hotel. I cannot tell if this is where the team is staying. I've seen Mitch Barnhart and Sam Maxwell, but neither are suiting up tomorrow, so who knows.

In any event, we are here. Hopefully we'll meet up with some Cats fans and have a nice day checking the place out with the kids. Tomorrow we'll get up leisurely, check out, and head for downtown. There we'll meet up with several friends and try to find a spot to warm up before the game. They are all big Bengals fans, so we'll be getting in front of a TV for that. The 7:30 start will make for an interesting dynamic. We will freeze out butts off, the game is going to end late, and I have to guard against the often fatal "too early start" on the day's festivities.

Bringing the kids means, among other things, that we'll be heading back to the hotel right after the game. Win, lose or draw, they'll be no repeat of 2008's Memphis shenanigans. Getting old stinks.

Anyway, we are off to a good start on our big weekend. If you are down here hit me up.

2010 Signs

2009-12-22T18:00:00.002-05:00

With the MCB coming so soon after Christmas, I am starting to see this UK Football Fan year getting away from me. Before I do a game preview, lets focus a little bit on next season. Last year I believe I did a lot in terms of a season preview prior to the bowl. I don't want to do that this year because I think the bowl might tell us a lot about next season. Instead, lets focus on what some of those things might be.

I start with the premise that 2010 might be a rough year, especially with Derrick Locke out of the mix. The most proven part of our offense could be our wide receiver corps. Think about that for a minute. Okay. UK will go with four new starters on the offensive line, a heretofore unused tight end of some variety, and a quarterback who will emerge from what will likely be a war of attrition.

The Defense will have some talented players back, but a number of holes to fill.

In fact, lets start there. Sam Maxwell's injury means that Junior Jacob Dufrene will get the nod at Strongside Linebacker in the Music City Bowl. Dufrene has been seen almost exclusively on special teams in his career, but is the front runner to play in that spot in 2010. This is a big opportunity for him.

It appears Paul Warford and Randall Burden will have the inside track to start at corner in 2010. Burden in particular had some big plays this year, but in my opinion, really struggled at times. Warford was hurt some this season and had a rather quiet year. Randall's coming out party was in last season's Liberty Bowl. It would be nice to see some similar magic from one of these guys to help us gain some confidence.

Over to offense, obviously the big story should be whether Mike Hartline will play, if so how much and how effectively. Based on everything I've observed, the race for the starting quarterback in 2010 is wide open. Hartline was having a great game when he got hurt but had certainly not set the world on fire leading up to it. Already struggling with confidence, Mike basically imploded against Alabama and left Brooks and Co. saying, "he aint much but he's all we got. Newton of course did what he was asked and managed to win some games, though it is questionable how much of a role he really played. I admit I was a tad disappointed in his running ability, and obviously his touch on downfiled passes will need to improve. I personally would be very relieved to see Mike Hartline come into this game, play well, and reestablish himself as the starting quarterback. No matter what happens, I'd expect a battle in the spring. And given what has transpired this year, I expect it will be a three horse race.

Assuming Locke is gone, UK will be looking for a tailback in 2010. Moncell Allen is at the top of the depth chart, and has certainly paid his dues. More importantly, the Turtle has run well when given the opportunity. Despite this, I don't see him getting more than 100 carries next year as the staff doesn't see him as a every down back. He is an unusual size and shape, and lacks the top end speed of an SEC tailback. If I were Brooks, I'd be looking to get Donald Russell or Coshik Williams a couple of meaningful carries on Sunday.

We'll talk a little more as it gets closer. Merry Christmas.

Lazy Saturday Post

2009-12-19T09:03:00.008-05:00

Obviously, a better blogger would figure out things to write about the UK Football team in December. Usually, when the posts get sparse, I blame work or something external. Right now, the truth is, there is little to say. As the MCB is eight days away, I'll go ahead and set up some angles for the game.

1. It may be Derrick Locke's last as a Cat. From looking at interviews and following conventional wisdom, it appears Locke is likely to turn pro after the season. This is an unusual move for someone who may very well be drafted. But is it the right move? The reasons why Locke might throw caution to the wind and go out are varied. He is a responsible father who wants to provide for his child. His body has taken a beating in the SEC, and he is one more awkward tackle away from being unmarketable. UK is graduating nearly all of its offensive line, so a breakout ALL-SEC senior year is less that assured. Finally, he admits that watching Micah and Trevard slide down draft boards after deciding to come back has weighed on him.

Of course, there are as many reasons to come back. Setting aside the "be true to your school" mantra, Locke is not seen as a sure fire NFL player. He may be drafted in a late round, he may end up as a free agent pickup. It would seem that a good senior season could improve his stock. Another year as a feature back might convince the NFL he could be an every down player. Given that he isn't seen as a certain pick, coming back couldn't possibly hurt. Locke's situation is nothing like Lindley's or even Johnson's. He is projected as a final round pick at best. Why give up your senior year in college for something that isn't a sure thing.

Here is an important question I don't know the answer to. Is Locke of course to get a degree in May 2011? See, this isn't basketball. There aren't the same opportunities to play overseas and in minor leagues. Those playing pro football outside the NFL would probably better off financially getting a white collar job somewhere. So it would make sense to play football for free for one more year in exchange for a diploma unless he was 100% sure he'd be on a roster next year. Unless, of course, he hasn't already made sufficient progress and it isn't an option. I don't know. I wish Derrick the best, and truly hope he makes the best decision for him. If he leaves, the Cats are dealt a crushing blow.

2. Randall Cobb plays to a national audience. Next Sunday is an NFL day, but the Music City Bowl is the only college game of the day. The primetime slot on the East Coast ensures that many casual fans will be tuned in. This is Randall Cobb's chance to showcase his talent to the nation. For some reason, I think he is going to rise to the occasion. While he might not outshine C.J. Spiller, a dual between these two uber talent players will be fun to watch.

3. Trevard. The 2006 Music City Bowl was a coming out party of sorts for Treard Lindley. His spectacular end zone interception was the first of many big plays he made for Kentucky over the first three years of his career. After a pick six against Miami (OH) in the season's opening game of 2009, the big plays quit coming. Lindley came back from injury too soon, and he was less than himself for the rest of the year, basically just another player on the field. He may have cost himself hundreds of thousands of dollars in the process. I would love to see a healed up Lindley have a big game, show scouts he is the same guy he was in 2008, and make one last memory for himself and his fans.

4. Me tempting the bowl karma monster by taking the kids. This probably deserves its own post.

5. Quarterbacks. The topic of who will be the starter in 2009 is for a different time, but I'd like to see both Newton and Hartline play in this game. I am not sure that Hartline is practicing at this point. He tried to go on Monday and had swelling in the knee. UK practiced last night and will again today at 11. I cannot get word on whether he participated. Sign of the times: I tried to figure this out just now and looked on Twitter before checking any other site.

6. Which Clemson team shows up? The ACC North champ that nearly beat Georgia Tech to go to a BCS Bowl, or the guys who spit the bit against a reeling South Carolina team two games ago.

Saturday Reset

2009-12-12T14:57:00.004-05:00

After another episode of the John Wall show I am sitting here watching Army-Navy. I am cheering for the Midshipmen since an Army win would knock UCLA out of the Eaglebank Bowl in DC. In any event, there have been some developments over the past week, particularly on the recruiting front.

A note first about the new wrinkle that Twitter adds site. I resisted Twitter for a long time. My assessment was that unless you were someone a great mass of people wanted to hear from, Twitter added nothing to Facebook use. Twitter does allow you to follow whoever you want, and the relationship doesn't need to be reciprocal. That is important. Randall Cobb doesn't want to read what I have to say. Anyway, I use twitter almost exclusively for following sports. Here are the people I follow: sportswriters, UK athletes, a friend who happens to be running for the US Senate and the hilarious "Shitmydadsays". That's it. I have recently started posting on Twitter (I refuse to call it what they do) only because of a gadget that allows the posts to appear on this site. This way, I might impart some news and thoughts that don't merit a full post. I do have exactly one Twitter follower, an Auburn Football blog. Why, I don't know. Anyway, if you are on Twitter you can become a follower (not that I expect anyone to), or just feel free to check the posts out over there on the right.

On a related note, at least 2 UK players hit the town last night before this morning's practice. One professed to have a pretty good time.

Anyway to UK football.

1. Derrick Locke seems intent on testing the NFL waters. It started with a Facebook post after the disappointing loss to Tennessee "Should I stay or should I go". Frankly, I thought he was just letting off steam. The idea that he might leave school early never occurred to me. Locke has apparently submitted paperwork to the NFL to help assess his draft position. We know from last year that this doesn't mean much. I cannot foresee a scenario under which Locke doesn't return. He is a good back who would probably put up an eye popping 4o time in the combine. That said, at 5'9", 190 he is far from ideal size for an NFL tailback. Locke's future in the league is probably as a kick returner, speedy coverage guy and sometimes third down back. His only chance of being seen as something more is to come back and carry the ball 225 times while maintaining his health. Other than the possibility of career threatening injury, he risks little by returning. As it is, he is a late round pick at best. I'm all for Derrick doing what is best for him, I just think it would be a mistake.

2. If Locke does leave, would the staff consider moving Randall Cobb to tailback? The knocks are that he doesn't have enough size to take the punishment, and that he lacks the top end speed. I think it would work. Ole Miss made the move this with 5-8, 165lb Dexter McCluster in the middle of his career. They decided that getting the ball in their best player's hands as much as possible trumped other concerns. He had an All-SEC season.

3. This week brought a lot of great news on the recruiting front. I generally don't talk about recruiting because I don't keep up with preps any more and wouldn't have a clue what I was talking about. But right now there ain't much else to say, so here goes. Earlier this week we signed the first 4-star guy in the 2010, CB Anterio Sloan, a sub 4.5 guy from Arkansas. Yesterday came news of UK's first commit for the 2011, Jon Davis from my mom's alma mater, Louisville Eastern. Davis goes 6'3", 233 and is listed as an athlete. He played tight end this year, which has me wondering if he can catch a ball and if he'd like to come play football in Nashville on December 27th.

4. It looks like Clemson is not going to use its allotment of tickets, which as I pointed out earlier in the week isn't surprising. This is good news for me, as for all of my planning, I went braindead when I got on Ticketmaster and bought seats on the Clemson sideline. On the other hand, it end up making me mad because several people who waited longer than I did to get tickets are going to get better seats. I got screwed raw on this at the Liberty Bowl last year. Oh well.

5. For anyone interested, a quick rundown of my bowl game plans. This trip is going to be different from years past since we are bringing the kids. We'll head down the day after Christmas for a night at the Opryland. I've never stayed there, and it might make the trip more palatable for my daughter, who could give a crap about football. Sunday we'll move down to the Hermitage downtown and get checked in around 3. I have a parking pass, but the decision whether to tailgate or hit the bar/restaurant scene prior to the game will likely be made by the weather. If you are out having fun after midnight that night, you'll have to tell us all about it.

MCB 2009

2009-12-07T20:48:00.005-05:00

A surprise win over the Georgia Bulldogs helps provide Kentucky with a better than expected 7-5 record and a trip to the Music City Bowl to take on the favorite Clemson Tigers. In 2006, our fanbase and team were ecstatic. Clearly more satisfied to be in Nashville than their counterparts, the Cats came to play. The fans showed up in droves and celebrated the team's first bowl trip in 8 years. The result, a not as close as it sounds 28-20 victory.

In 2009, the Cats are in the exact same position, but not really. With the exception of the fifth-year Seniors, no Wildcat has played on a Kentucky team that didn't go to a bowl. It is old hat. We are headed to our third Music City Bowl in four years. The bloom is off the rose a little bit. Like in 2007, many Cats fans are fresh off a trip to Nashville to see us play Vandy. On his criminally under appreciated Demolition album, Ryan Adams sang "Tennessee sucks in the summer". Cats fans who cancelled reservations in Tampa today might not be blamed for thinking it will suck on December 27th as well.

Lets face it, there is some pretty big letdown potential here. After losing the chance to play in Tampa in an overtime game against a hated rival, one wonders what this UK team will have in the tank. The game is far from a sellout, and I don't think UK will bring the contingent it did in 2006 and 2007. Many friends who made the trip before are staying home. Here are some reasons, though, why people should keep the faith, and why the team would be wise to focus.

1. We are underdogs, yes. But if any team could be less happy about being in the Music City Bowl, its Clemson. Five points from playing in the Orange , the Tigers instead took a Bobby Bowden induced dry dive down the ACC pecking order and wound up in this game. They got jobbed, plain and simple. Clemson is ripe for plucking.

2. CJ Spiller. The Cats let the likes of Monterio Hardesty and Anthony Dixon run ragged on them. In the MCB they will play against an even better back. I'm not sure I'd trade Spiller straight up for Mark Ingram. Holding him down would be a tremendous accomplishment for our front seven. Micah Johnson was snubbed by the AP today in All-SEC voting. It would be nice to see him end with a dominant performance.

3. Mike Hartline. Regardless of how Brooks handles the situation, it would be nice to see Mike get to be part of a victory. Next year's quarterback "battle" is going to be an interesting sub-plot in the off season. More on that another time.

4. Winning four bowl games in a row is a very difficult feat. The list of SEC teams that has been to and won bowls the last three years: Georgia, LSU, Kentucky. That is crazy good company. In addition, this is the only positive streak UK can claim to be a part of. Lets keep it going.

5. Nashville is a very nice safety valve for UK come bowl time. How many bowls would pick Kentucky over Georgia? If we throw in a clunker attendancewise, that might disappear.

Of course, one thing would certainly re-energize the Cats and their fans and get everyone pumped for the game: Rich Brooks announcing that it will be his last. Something tells me, however, that this isn't Brooks' way. Even if he decides to hang it up, he may want to take the focus off himself and not do so until after the game. That would be a mistake, in my opinion. We'll see how it goes.

Plus One Bowls

2009-12-06T22:15:00.002-05:00

Just to finish the thought about my plan for a plus one college football playoff, here is what the bowl pairings would look like given the final BCS standing. The important part, of course, is that the winners of the Sugar and Fiesta would play the following week for the National Championship. The whole thing would be awesome.

Sugar
Alabama v. TCU

Fiesta
Texas v. Cincinnati

Orange
Georgia Tech v. Florida

Rose
Oregon v. Ohio State

Gator
Iowa v. Boise St.

Sam Maxwell to miss MCB

2009-12-05T17:58:00.002-05:00

to have shoulder surgery.

Proposed "Plus One" BCS Playoff

2009-12-04T08:56:00.003-05:00

With our bowl news decided, little else of UK Football note happening, and me announcing my potentially life changing decision to leave my large law firm to join the up and coming young firm http://www.millerwells.com there isn't much need or time for a new column this week. I want to dust off this idea I came up with last December, a plausible, make everyone happy "plus one" college football playoff system. The details relating to all the possible contingencies are clunky, but the plan boils down to allowing two BCS bowls to serve as national semi-finals, then playing a championship game the following week. It changes almost nothing about the current bowl system, and would get us much closer to a true national champion.

From December 2008:

The BCS keeps the Rose, Fiesta, Orange and Sugar and adds the Gator as a fifth bowl. These bowls are to be played on January 1 or 2. At the end of the regular season, the BCS rankings will spit out the four best teams. From there, the teams will be placed as follows:

1.The No. 1 team, assuming it is a BCS conference champion, shall play in the bowl designated by its championship. Fiesta= Big 12, Sugar=SEC, Orange=ACC, Rose=Pac-10 and/or Big 10. The Gator was added for this situation. This will become the Big East's champion's designated bowl. If the #1 team is not a BCS conference champion, it is placed as set forth below.

2. The No. 2 team, assuming that it is a BCS conference champion, shall play in the bowl designated by its championship. If not, it is placed as set forth below.

3. The No. 3 team, assuming it is a BCS conference champion, will be placed in the bowl designated by its championship unless both #1 and #2 are BCS conference champions. Assuming both #1 and 2 are BCS conference champions, the No. 3 team will play against the #2 team at the bowl that team is slotted for. If either #1 or 2 is not a BCS conference champion, it will play at #3's conference designated spot. If neither #1 or #2 is a BCS conference champion the Number #3 team shall play the #4. In the unlikely event none of the top 3 teams are BCS conference champions, the top 2 teams will select, in order, which bowl they wish to attend. The #3 team will then be matched against the #2 team.

4. The #4 team will play highest ranked BCS conference champion at that team's designated bowl unless none are BCS conference champions, in which case it will play the #1 team.

5. Notwithstanding 1-4 above, in the event that both the PAC-10 and Big-10 champions are ranked in the top 4, the teams will play in the Rose Bowl unless the National Championship game will be played in Los Angeles. Assuming the National Championship game is slated for Los Angeles, the lower ranked team will be treated as a not having been a conference champion and will be slated accordingly. If these two teams play in the Rose Bowl, the higher ranked of the two remaining teams shall play in the bowl designated by its conference championship against the final remaining team. If the higher ranked team is not a BCS conference champion, but the lower ranked team is, the teams shall play in the bowl designated by the lower ranked team's championship. In the event neither team is a conference champion, the bowl of the team with the higher ranking will host the game.

6. The other BCS games will be populated by champions from the other BCS conferences and wildcard teams in accordance with the current BCS system.

7. With the exception of the Gator Bowl, all other bowls remained unchanged.

8. The winners of the two games between the nation's top four teams play in a National Championship game approximately one week after the Jan 1 & 2 games. The game will rotate between BCS venues, as it does now.

One thorny issue. Does the Gator get added to the rotation?

This plan is the best anyone is going to come up with. It leaves the current situation virtually untouched while getting us a lot closer to a true national champion. The value of being a conference champion, which seems so important to the BCS, is left intact. The Rose Bowl gets thrown a bone. It doesn't cheapen the other BCS bowls any worse than they've been cheapened. Most of all, it puts some pressure on the various BCS conferences to put a good product on the field. As long as this ACC proves incapable of producing a championship contender, the Orange is not going to host a national semifinal. This is the way it should be. I cannot imagine a coherent argument against this system from either a realist's (which is to say fiscal), academic (no change other than for the two teams that would play twice) or competitive standpoint.

Cats to Music City Bowl

2009-12-01T20:33:00.001-05:00

Put it in the book.

Bowl News Update

2009-12-01T16:05:00.002-05:00

I am not sure why you'd be getting your news here, but if so, it appears that the Music City Bowl is choosing between the Cats and Georgia to play on December 27th. This after a wacky day where the Outback unexpectedly chose Auburn and the Chick-Fil-A then did us a potential favor by picking UT over Georgia.
It has been a lesson in the use of new media. The news has come via tweets, blog and Facebook updates, and it has been fast and furious. We should know our destination soon. If we don't get the MCB call, the conventional wisdom is that we will be snatched next by the Independence Bowl.

Final SEC Bowl Projections

2009-11-30T23:02:00.004-05:00

UPDATE: Several media/blogger sources are reporting that Auburn will be selected by the Outback over Tennessee, or any team from the East for that matter. That puts UK firmly in the Shreveport crosshairs.

Here are my final SEC bowl projections. I have to say, after doing this for half the season, this final stab is sort of a joyless exercise. Everyone has an opinion on this now, and unless you have inside information (which I don't) then you are just making a guess. The upsets by Georgia and South Carolina this weekend sent the whole process into a tizzy. UT, UK, Arkansas, Auburn, UGa and USClite are all 7-5, so you can quit focusing on how the teams actually stack up and start thinking about what makes financial sense for these bowl committees. It is conventional wisdom among locals that UK will not to fall below the Music City Bowl. I understand the logic, but doubt any of these people know for sure.
So here it goes, my best guess. And admittedly, it is a guess.

National Championship
Florida. I have gone back and forth on this one for most of the season. Bottom line, I don't see Tim Tebow allowing his team to lose this game.

Sugar
Alabama. We can all agree it is a mortal lock that the SEC runner up gets this nod. Query: If the SEC Championship is very close could there be a rematch in the National Championship? Nebraska would undoubtedly need to beat Texas in the Big 12 Championship and Pitt would probably have to beat Cincinnati. Stranger things have happened.

Capital One
LSU. By attrition. Huge overtime win for the Tigers coupled with Ole Miss loss allows them to claw their way back to a prestigious slot.

Cotton
Ole Miss. Last of the safe bets. Everything below here is a crap shoot.

Outback
Tennessee. Just going with the conventional wisdom here. It makes sense since UT finished hot, and their 4-4 conference record puts them ahead of most of the other 7-5 teams.

Chick-Fil-A
Georgia. This is a guess. It would make sense that because the Chick-Fil-A sells out every year, that it would be looking for a big name matchup. The question becomes, if Georgia Tech loses to Clemson in the ACC Championship and becomes a candidate for this bowl, what happens? Certainly UGa and Tech will not play again. Even if it isn't Georgia, I like Auburn and South Carolina's chances better than ours to go here. Both are very close to Atlanta.

Liberty
Arkansas. The Liberty is said to covet an Arkansas-Houston tilt. Unless the Outback decides to snake the Razorbacks, I'd say this one is a lock.

Music City Bowl
Kentucky. By a nose. The boards are buzzing with talk of a "basketball" UK-UNC pairing. I question whether a North Carolina-South Carolina matchup wouldn't be sexier. But, as John Clay pointed out earlier in the week, with the bowl so close to Christmas (Dec. 27), the MCB needs at least one team whose fans will show up. We will. Cash is king. As for television, how many people are going to watch this game at 7:30pm on a Sunday night anyway?

Independence
Auburn. With only they and South Carolina to choose from, well. . . .Auburn is a lot closer to Shreveport. Who knows?

Papajohns.com
USC. The win against Clemson notwithstanding, the 'Cocks closed the season poorly. That they would suck hind tit here isn't too surprising.

Game Summary

2009-11-29T17:31:00.003-05:00

I don't have much in the tank to write about the game. The whole thing is too painful. We did manage to leave our tailgate early enough to see the Senior Night festivities. I got my answer about whether UK Football means too much to me during the montage leading up to the introduction of the seniors. Yep, I started tearing up, and couldn't get the feeling to go away throughout the whole deal. So for ten minutes, I couldn't look at anyone else, especially my wife. This is insane, of course, because 1) I am a grown man; and 2) The players, who are the ones actually seeing their careers come to an end, weren't crying.
When the game ended, I wanted to cry again, but couldn't muster the emotional energy. At 5:20, I looked at my wife and said, "We are going to win". When Ashton Cobb forced the fumble and Randall ripped off a couple of runs from the Wildcat, I was starting to look like a prophet. Of course, it was not to be.
My points about the game have already been made by Matt Jones on KSR and nearly everyone else with an opinion. Why we didn't finish the last drive with Cobb behind center is beyond me. It was a lot like the fateful failed two point covers ion against USC. I don't understand Rich Brooks' explanation that we don't practice the Wildcat in the two minute offense. So what? It was 2nd and 7 on the 10 yardline coming out of a timeout with a minute and sixteen seconds left. We had another timeout. How many more plays could we have run in that situation regardless? 3, 4?
Like a lot of people, I felt an OT win was very unlikely. When we didn't get that ball in the end zone chances were we were not going to win.
My second point is another that has been made. We really had no business being in the game to begin with. Still, it was a chance that slipped away. And it slipped away for reasons I honestly don't understand.
More later about the SEC bowl picture, which is an absolute mess.

Preview

2009-11-28T09:47:00.002-05:00

Alright, we are on the back end of what is going to be a three post day. Is it a bad sign that watching the Stevie Johnson video and typing a post about Will Fidler almost brought me to tears? Not to go all The Sports Guy or Clay Travis on you, but is is possible that I care too much about this team and have lost all perspective? Perhaps. But if there was ever a day to get lost in the depths of UK Football, this is it.

We've gone over why this is such a big game, so we won't belabor it. But one thing bears repeating. I hate Lane Kiffin.

Now lets talk about the game. My assessment of UT starts with their quarterback Jonathan Crompton. Somehow, this kid spent 3 1/2 years of a lousy career as a caterpillar and became a butterfly in the middle of this year. Through 3 games, Crompton had thrown 7 interceptions. Having seen his collapse against UCLA in the last of these three game, and chatting up the locals in Knoxville bars for two nights that weekend, I reported then that no player in college football inspired as much hatred from his own fans as this guy. It was brutal.

A lightbulb then went off for Crompton and he has been a different player. He leads the SEC in touchdown passes with 25, and has thrown only 4 picks in the last 8 games. Weird. The Cats need to find a way to get some pressure on him and get a pick early. This kid will get rattled. At his core he is still a kicked puppy. He'll revert to form if given provocation. At this point it bears mention that UT has not won a road game this year. The crowd needs to give Crompton all the noise it can.

With that said, the key to stopping UT may be stopping Monterio Hardesty. A look at his statistics shows that he has had some good games and some pedestrian games. We know that UK's defense has had some success and some striking failure against the run this year. If Hardesty runs us ragged, it will be very tough to win this game.

Looking at UT's recent results, one game sticks out, a 42-17 beatdown administered by Ole Miss. The Rebels success that day had little to do with Jevan Snead, in fact he had a poor game. UT got blown out because Dexter McCluster went bananas. The Rebs WR turned All-SEC caliber running back went for 282 yards on 25 carries with 4 TDs. The key for us tonight, as always, is Cobb-Locke, Locke-Cobb and the big guys up front. These guys need to get it done. Monte Kiffin will have the UT defense in a position to shut us down. It is going to come down to execution and special athletes making special plays. (I've said that a lot recently).

I think to win we will need to open the playbook up a little. I'd like to see Cobb get a couple of throws out of the Wildcat, and Newton get to take some shots downfield. We'll see about that.

Finally, we need to have a big start. We often start slowly in big games, most disappointingly against Vandy in 2008. I don't see how the Cats won't be ready to play tonight, but the key will be channelling the emotion in a positive way. I doesn't always happen like it should. Tonight, I think we will rise to the occasion.

No prediction here. We'll see how it all shakes out.

I'll be in the Orange Lot, finishing up just in time to honor our seniors. Have fun. Go Cats.

Micah and Will

2009-11-28T08:21:00.003-05:00

Today I want to pay tribute to two players who've had very different careers.

Micah Johnson will play his final game in Commonwealth tonight. Coming is as one of the most highly regarded linebackers in his high school class, Johnson was the gem of the 2005 recruiting class. His career got off to a slower start than most expected, but he was a part-time starter as a sophomore and rounded into All-SEC form last year as a junior. With the emergence of Sam Maxwell and the presence of some great talent at LB across the SEC, we haven't heard as much about Micah this year. Truthfully, I think he has been playing hurt since injuring his knee against EKU. Still, he is the team's leading tackler, and will go down as one of UK's all-time greats linebackers.

But Johnson's importance to this team cannot be measured in tackles. He is "the guy". Micah is vocal, talented, intense, and looks like a Greek god. When you see him in the tunnel or getting off the bus, it is a reminder that this isn't old Kentucky. He has been an absolute warrior on the field, playing hurt, getting to the ballcarrier in open space, fighting to the whistle. Micah is a foxhole guy. If you are choosing up teams in the street, he is the first pick. If I'm on the field for the Cats in a dogfight, I'd take a lot of comfort looking at Micah and thinking, "That dude has my back". You get the point. Good players have come and gone, but he is one guy who I think really ushered in the new Kentucky era.

My son will wear his #4 jersey for one of the last times today, right before Santa brings him an 18 to wear next year. I am going to miss Micah Johnson.

This week Will Fidler announced that he would be foregoing his final year of eligibility and would participate in Senior Day activities tonight. Hearing that made me feel both strange and sad, though I totally support his decision. With the coaching staff having decided to go with Newton for the remainder of the year, and Hartline returning in the spring, Will was no longer going to compete for playing time. In addition, non-starting seniors all across college football regularly give up their scholarships (at some schools it is more voluntary than others). If that is what he's doing, then it continues a pattern of unselfish behavior that Will should be remembered for. It bears mention that Will will walk in May with a degree.

Not a month ago, I really felt that Fidler should be given the reins at home against Mississippi State. He had outplayed Newton to that point. Lets not forget, he was prehaps a dropped TD pass from leading us to a win against USC after Hartline's injury. The following week, he came off the bench and sparked the team to a TD drive that fueled the comeback.

Decisions were made, probably more about the long run than the team's immediate prospects. In retrospect, going with Newton was the right call. Still, Fidler had every right to believe that he'd get the nod, both in the Auburn game and beyond. As things went, he did not get that call, and has decided to close the book on his UK career. Sports are fickle sometimes. Through it all, Fidler has handled himself with dignity and class, never complaining in the media, always positive and helpful with Newton, and showing up and practicing hard. According to reports, Will is one of the more popular guys in the locker room. It is easy to see why.

My own athletic career taught me that while we cannot all be stars, we can all be part of a winning team. For every Micah Johnson, you need a Will Fidler, someone who accepts his role and contributes in whatever way he can.

I wish Will the best of luck, whether it is as a 1-AA starter somewhere or out in the real world.

For a Saturday Morning

2009-11-28T08:19:00.000-05:00

Goof

2009-11-26T18:31:00.003-05:00

Something I said earlier this week is inaccurate. As hotly anticipated as this Saturday's game is, it in not the biggest of the Rich Brooks era. Not even close. On October 20, 2007 the defending champion Florida Gators came to Commonwealth at 5-2 and ranked #15 in the nation. Ordinarily, this would be cause for alarm. But walking into the stadium that day, UK was 6-1 and ranked #7, fresh off a win over then #1 LSU. Gameday was broadcast from Lexington that morning, something I thought I'd never see in my lifetime.

There was a lot at stake. In the week leading up to this game, I began to wonder if the Cats could win the SEC East, go to a BCS bowl, maybe, just maybe win out and head to the national championship game. We all did. It all seemed possible. Of course, it was not to be. Tebow and Woodson put on a dual for the ages. The Cats stayed close, but ultimately fell 45-37. The following week, the Cats were embarrassed by a puzzling blowout loss to Mississippi State, and any hopes of a dream year were dashed. I still think if we'd have pulled this game out, the MSU thing would not have happened, and we might have had a shot at the SEC East crown. As it is, UT finished 5-3 in the conference, went to the SEC Championship, and was within a late Eric Ainge pick of beating LSU and going to the Sugar Bowl. It certainly could have been us.

Anyway, we are playing for a lot this weekend, but not quite as much as we were then. Go Cats.

SEC PREVIEWS

2009-11-26T09:51:00.005-05:00

This is going to be a great weekend in SEC Football. I wish the games were more spread out, and that at least one was being played today, but oh well. Nearly every game could have some ramifications for the Cats' bowl prospects. Here are some quick notes.

Friday 2:30 PM

Alabama at Auburn

There will be a lot of eyes on this game Friday looking for an upset. Teams like Cincinnati, TCU and Boise can hold out hope that the Tide don't get it done in their rivalry game, then turn around and beat Florida in the SEC Championship next week. How about the possibility that no SEC team plays in the national championship. It has to start with Chris Todd and the Tiger offense. Alabama has been rock solid on both sides of the ball all year. Their offense is going to generate points. If Auburn cannot answer the bell on O, this won't be competitive. As a Cats fan, you want to see Alabama win for two reasons. First, is the outside possibility that the Tide could lose to Auburn and Florida and somehow get left out of the BCS. Less remotely, a win give Auburn an 8-4 season, which could help them leapfrog the Cats, especially with a loss to Tennessee.

Saturday

Noon

Clemson at South Carolina

Everyone is writing off the Gamecocks for dead. It seems like year after year this team gets off to a hot start, then fades. True, they are on a three game skid, and have lost four of five since stealing one from our Cats. But they haven't exactly played patsies. The recent losses were at Tennessee and Arkansas, and home against Florida. Clemson is ranked #18 and red hot. Question: Could they be looking ahead to their already clinched ACC Championship game? I think South Carolina is going to win this game. Which is a shame, because I hate them and would rather not see the Gamecocks in the 7-5 mix.

12:21 PM

Mississippi at Mississippi State

Egg Bowl. Who is the best running back in the state of Mississippi, Dexter McCluster or Anthony Dixon? Can the Rebels end a disappointing regular season on a high note an insure a trip to the Capital One or Cotton Bowl? Mississippi State is struggling, but Ole Miss has not been a world beater, especially on the road. Some intrigue here.

3:30 PM

Florida State at Florida

Tim Tebow's last game in Gainesville. Chance for an upset? 0.0%.

7:00 PM

Arkansas at LSU

Game of the week in the SEC. This is big for both schools. LSU can stay in the hunt for a top 10 finish with a win. Arkansas sits at 7-4 and could very well play its way into the Cotton, Outback, Chick-Fil-A tier with a win. This is probably the biggest game on the board for the Cats. We need LSU to hold on and win this. I'll be checking scores during my down time at Commonwealth.

8:00 PM

Georgia at Georgia Tech

Are the Rambling Wreck for real? They need to beat the reeling Bulldogs the maintain momentum going into the ACC Championship and a possible BCS Bowl. Though they are probably out of the National Title hunt, it is entirely possible that Tech could win out and finish at #2 or #3. I cannot help feeling sorry for Joe Cox, who basically gave a game away on his senior night. It will be interesting to see how he responds. If the Cats cannot take care of business Saturday, it would be good if Tech could hold serve to keep Georgia out of the 7-5 mix.

Happy Turkey Day.

Big Bowl Projection Post

2009-11-23T20:18:00.011-05:00

Let's break down, in excruciating detail, the Cats Bowl prospects. We'll start with the SEC rules regarding bowl slotting.

After the BCS bowls, where we assume the SEC will slot two teams, the Capital One Bowl gets the next pick(3). It must pick the school with the next best overall record, or a team within one win of the next best overall record. The Cotton and Outback Bowls (4-5) pick next. Ordinarily the Cotton selects a team from the West and Outback a team from the East. They may choose from the opposite conference, but cannot do so until the other bowl picks. The Chick Fil A (6) then chooses next overall. The Liberty and Music City (7-8) are on equal footing. Each bowl ranks the remaining teams in order of preference. If there is a match among their first pick, that team decides where it goes. Otherwise, each bowl gets its preference. The Independence (9) chooses next, the the Papajohns.com (10) Bowl.

Most people seem to believe, and I agree, that the Cats have a clear shot at the Outback Bowl if they beat Tennessee. If so, we will be 8-4, with the second best overall record in the East. The SEC standings could look like this.

East
1. Florida 12-0, 8-0
2. Kentucky 8-4, 4-4
3. Georgia 6-6, 4-4
4. Tennessee 6-6, 3-5
5. South Carolina 6-6, 3-5
6. Vandy

West
1. Alabama 12-0, 8-0
2. Ole Miss 9-3, 5-3
3. LSU 9-3, 5-3
4(t). Arkansas 7-5, 3-5
4(t). Auburn 7-5, 3-5
6. Mississippi St. 4-8, 2-6

Again, these are likely records, if all the favorites (except UT, which is currently favored by 3 points) win. The only possible wrench would be if Arkansas beats LSU, making both teams 8-4 and 4-4 in the league. The Cotton would then choose between those teams and the Outback would have a real choice to make between UK and the other. I still like our chances. I suppose the same scenario could present itself with Auburn beating Alabama, but that seems more remote. Also, I am not sure that Auburn has as much appeal to the Outback. Anyway, the Outback seems to be the overwhelming likelyhood if we win. Worst case scenario, we would fall one spot to the Chick-Fil-A.

Now, for the sake of argument, lets assume the Cats do not win. If all other favorites hold serve, the SEC East standings look like this:

East
1. Florida 12-0, 8-0
2. Tennessee 7-5, 4-4
3. Georgia 6-6, 4-4
4. Kentucky 7-5, 3-5
5. South Carolina 6-6, 3-5
6. Vandy

So, assuming the BCS gobbles up Florida and Alabama, that leaves Ole Miss for the Capital One and LSU for the Cotton. It would makes sense that Tennessee gets to the Outback. At that point, the Chick-Fil-A (New Year's Eve in Atlanta) is choosing between UK, Arkansas and Auburn, three teams with potentially identical overall and league records. A lot of locals are thinking Chick-Fil-A even if we lose. I'm not so sure. First of all, we were not even on this bowl's radar prior to this week. Secondly, Auburn is a whopping hour and forty five minute drive to Atlanta. Finally, Ryan Mallett is looking more like a sure fire NFL first round arm every week. I think the Razorbacks might be the most sexy pick. But they are not as close as we are. I honestly couldn't say what the Chick-Fil-A officials will do.

Moreover, several teams could improve their lies with wins this weekend. Clearly we should root against potential co-suitors Arkansas and Auburn in favor of their respective foes, LSU and Alabama, two teams who beat us in the pecking order regardless . Just as importantly, we should be rooting like hell against Georgia and South Carolina. They play ranked rivals Georgia Tech and Clemson, respectively. Both are projected to lose and finish the season 6-6, but either could bring itself back into the Liberty/Music City tier with a win. With all this lurking, I believe the Cats' most likely destination with a loss is the Music City Bowl. If things broke right, we could still end up in the Chick-Fil-A. I doubt we will fall below Nashville no matter how it shakes out, but certainly stranger things have happened.

In 2007, the Cats appeared to have a Chick-Fil-A Bowl bid pretty well in their sights even if they lost to Tennessee on the final day of the regular season. The day before, however, Arkansas pulled a big upset against eventual National Champion LSU. This catapulted the Razorback into an unlikely Cotton Bowl bid, driving 8-4 Auburn down into our spot in Catlanta. Lets hope something like this does not crop up.

Of course, the easiest way to avoid this is to take care of business on Saturday. I'll let some outsider's predictions take us out. Go Cats.

ESPN Mark Schlabach
Music City v. Boston College

ESPN Bruce Feldman
Music City v. Florida State

CFN Scout
Outback v. Wisconsin

CBS Sports
Papajohns.com v. South Florida

Sunday Reset

2009-11-22T19:24:00.008-05:00

Let me say first of all that last night's win came as a shock to me. I felt going in that we had a chance if we put the things that we'd done well in previous games together. At halftime, however, it seemed we wouldn't come up with that kind of performance. The D looked positively awful, and I was pulling my hair out at the play calling. When we tucked the ball away during the last possession of the half, I wondered outloud if we were really trying to win or just avoid embarrassment.

The second half was one of the stranger 30 minutes of football I can remember. Yes, we played well and made some of our own luck, but Georgia just seemed determined to give us the game. Seriously, how would you feel if you were a Bulldogs fan today? (Aside from feeling like your dog died). What if the Cats had outgained a team 2-1 and lost on senior night by committing four turnovers in the second half, including one right before what seemed like a sure fire tieing touchdown? No way to describe it. An awful game for them and their fanbase.

But enough about the poor Bulldogs, lets talk about the rich and prosperous Cats. Major credit in this game has to go to Sam Maxwell. This year's defense was supposed to be led by three stars. Jarmon never played a snap. Trevard missed half the season and, lets just be honest here, has struggled since returning from injury. Even Micah has been slowed by nagging injuries of his own and been quiet the last two or three weeks. Maxwell is not only the team's second leading tackler, he is second in the SEC in interceptions with five. He was all over the field Saturday, and sniffed out another big INT at crunchtime. Major credit.

Finally, an interesting stat before moving on to where we stand now. UK is +8 in turnover margin on the road this year. We are -7 at home. This obviously goes hand in hand with the results we've been getting. Come Monday, UK is going to have to figure a way to get a roadlike performance in Commonwealth to end the season. Because. . .

Next Saturday's tilt against UT is the most important game of the Rich Brooks era. Examine this with me for a minute. The Cats are playing for what should be a trip to the Outback Bowl. A win makes us 8-4 and second in the SEC East (actually in a tie with Georgia but with a better overall record). Considering what this team has gone through and the fact that they've won 4 of 5 with basically no passing game, an 8-4 year would go down as one of the best coaching jobs in D-1 this season. A New Years Day Bowl for this team would outstrap anything anyone could have predicted. I could also see it sending Rick Brooks off into the sunset in the most satisfying way possible.

Then, of course, there is the opponent. Our losing streak to Tennessee has reached epidemic proportions. Unlike Florida, kicks our ass year after year, UT has been let off the hook several times. We just cannot get the monkey off our backs. Our program needs this win. The rivalry takes on a bit of a new meaning for me now because I hate their coach. Seriously, Lane Kiffin is the guy in your fraternity nobody liked. No one likes losing to that guy. Coaches and history aside, there is probably some genuine bad blood between members of these two teams. What exactly happened this off season at the Royal Lexington Apartments remains a guarded mystery to most of us fans. Once we learned nothing would come of it, it was like it never happened. My guess is that whatever happened is still very real to whoever was involved. It will be nasty down there.

Finally, there is this. This year's team enters the game with almost the same resume as the 2007 Wildcats. Think about that. Woodson, Woodyard, Tamme, Burton, Little, Stevie, Dickie. Those guys. Pulled off a couple of great upsets. Spit the bit against Mississippi State. Took care of business otherwise. Walked into Commonwealth 7-4 against a team they matched up with on paper, with a chance to play football on New Years Day still hanging in the air. It was my favorite year as a UK Football Fan, and really the impetus for starting this blog. Still, I'll never forget the feeling walking out of Commonwealth two years ago after not being able to pull that game out. My guess is Micah, Trevard, Sam Maxwell, Derrick Locke and many others remember that too. The demons are still swirling around. A week from today, they might be gone, replaced with a plane ticket to Tampa, sweet vindication for Brooks and Co. and a win over a monumental jackass.

More this week, especially the potential bowl scenarios. But for now, I think you have to agree, this is one big game.

UGa Preview

2009-11-19T12:29:00.003-05:00

The Kentucky Wildcats, they are who we thought they were. As I said at the end of last year and in the preseason this year, this team was going to be slightly better on offense, slightly worse on defense, and was overall going to look a lot like the 2008 team. I think that all of that has largely come true. Especially the part about the 2008 and 2009 teams being similar.

At this point in the season, neither team underachieved, but both had chances to win games that they just couldn't come down with. The biggest bummer for year's team was a 42-38 home loss to Georgia where we did everything but win the game. It took a Montana to Clark'esque touchdown on fourth down by Georgia, followed by a defensive lineman intercepting a Cobb pass with one hand. The loss dropped us to 6-4 and set the stage for the disappointing poopfest that was the Vandy game the following week.

This year, thankfully, the Cats got to Vandy before Georgia and got their sixth win. (Of course the poopfest came two weeks earlier against Mississippi State). Now we can focus on the final two games of the year with little pressure. Lose, and you had the season most people were expecting. Win, and given all the injuries to key players, you've had a pretty good year and will head to a bowl people can be happy about.

Hope springs eternal as it relates to the Georgia game. A.J. Green, the Bulldogs all everything wideout, will miss the contest. And, as John Clay and I have both pointed out this week, the Cats seem to play better football on the road. Clearly, Georgia's defense had trouble with Randall Cobb last year, and we nearly beat them without Derrick Locke and really no passing game to speak of.

Of course, as the week has rolled on, we got sobering news that Cobb was questionable due to a shoulder injury. Today, Brooks announced that Cobb was a game time decision. Cobb's injury will make it hard for Georgia to prepare a game plan. It will also make it hard for Kentucky, though my guess is Brooks knows more than he is saying.

The Cobb injury should make it difficult to write a game preview. But it really doesn't. If Randall doesn't play, the preview is simple. The Cats have literally no chance to win between the hedges without him. We will have to run Locke 20 times, Newton will have to complete passes to receivers besides Larod King, and the defense would have to hold Washaun Ealey and Co. literally in check for probably 40 minutes on the field. It is just too much to ask of a team that is already giving up a sizable talent advantage. Yes, this isn't your father's Georgia team, but they still own wins over South Carolina, Arizona, Arkansas and Auburn and have played exactly one bad game (45-19 road loss to UT) all year.

With Cobb healthy, it becomes manageable. Take away Green, and only one Georgia receiver has caught more than 16 balls. Ealey has come on of late (when he wasn't getting his eye poked out), but Georgia has no superstar back. The Bulldogs have been up and down on defense as well. With Cobb in there, the keys become:

1. The Defense must play like it did at Auburn or in the second half against Vandy. If we start playing ole' or giving up 10 yards at a time, this team has no chance.
2. Newton must make some plays with both his arm and his feet to take some of the pressure off of Cobb and Locke. This includes spreading around the ball on offense to Cobb and Matthews, not just relying on King as a security blanket.
3. A TE must step up and make a play or two in a big situation.
4. Special teams. We've kept our finger in the dyke the last few weeks. If this old issue rears its ugly head, we are cooked.
5. Special players. All this aside, we can win this game if Cobb and/or Locke will us to it. This is why I think Cobb's participation is crucial. A take it to the house pick from forgotten pre-season All-American Trevard Lindley would be nice as well.

We are who we thought we were, but that doesn't mean that for three hours we cannot be a little more. Its on. See you Saturday.

New SEC Projections

2009-11-17T09:08:00.005-05:00

East

1. Florida 12-0, 8-0
Sugar

2. Georgia 7-5, 5-3
Outback

3. Tennessee 7-5, 4-4
Chick-Fil-A

4. South Carolina 6-6, 3-5
Papajohns.com

5. Kentucky 6-6, 2-6
Independence

6. Vandy 2-10, 0-8
None

West

1. Alabama 12-0, 8-0
National Championship

2. LSU 10-2, 6-2
Capital One

3. Ole Miss 8-4, 4-4
Cotton

4(t). Arkansas 7-5, 3-5
Liberty

4(t). Auburn 7-5, 3-5
Music City

6. Mississippi State 4-8, 2-6
Out of the soup

Lot of guesswork on the slotting this week. If it shakes out like this, the Outback Bowl will choose between Georgia, UT, Auburn and Arkansas, with everything falling from there. Some interesting games coming up this weekend. LSU and Ole Miss will square off in a likely Capital One Bowl play-in game. Mississippi State is down to its dieing breath heading to Arkansas.

As for the Cats, we once again find ourselves at season's end with a chance to move up. It is a virtual certainty that a 7-5 SEC team will play in the Chick-Fil-A Bowl and a very good chance that one will play on New Years as well. We've managed to avoid the Shreveport hole for the last three years, but 6-6 will almost assuredly land us there or further down (Papajohns.com has the dead last pick) this year.

Chip Cosby and KSR have now made a point I hadn't thought of. Both the Pizza Web Site and Liberty conflict with the UK-U of L basketball game. This may impact our chance at the Liberty. It won't impact the Papajohns.com Bowl unless Mississippi State gets bowl eligible, the only scenario under which that committee gets a choice. Frankly, I see a lot more Cats fans making the trip to Birmingham than Shreveport, big basketball game or no. I've mentioned several times, but it bears repeating, a trip to the Shreve is almost impossible to justify on the homefront.

So hey, lets get some wins, boys.

Road Dogs

2009-11-16T21:46:00.002-05:00

Trying to put the Cats' season in some sort of perspective, I am struck by an interesting fact. UK has played at least its three, if not four, best games on the road this year. Overall we are 3-3 at home. Our wins were close over one of the BCS conference's worst teams (that is you, Da Ville), uninspired against ULA-Monroe, and hardly dominant over EKU. In contrast, we've beaten two SEC teams (one of them decent) and owned a lower D-1 team on the road. Even the loss to USC was a pretty fair game for the Cats, one we were arguably a play or two from winning.

At home, we had enormous clunkers against Florida and Mississippi State, and a game but ultimately lacking showing against Alabama.

Last year the Cats spanked Louisville 27-2, eecked out bowl eligibility against Mississippi State and put together an inspired defensive effort in a 17-14 loss to then #2 and undefeated Alabama. All on the road. We've played all those teams at home this year, with very different results. Last year's best home win was the 21-20 comeback over Arkansas. A fun win, but still a narrow one over a team that did not go bowling. There was also an embarrassing loss to Vandy at Commonwealth.

The argument breaks down some when one takes 2007 into account, but only on the surface. True, the home wins against LSU and Louisville were the best of the Brooks era. Still, there was the season killing loss to Mississippi State at home. A great road win against a Cotton Bowl Arkansas squad catapulted the Cats into the top 10. In fact, LSU might be the exception that proves the rule. It is probably the last real good game we've played at Commonwealth.

Throw in three straight bowl wins, and you could make a good argument that we play better away from home.

What I don't know is why. My theories are not very scientific. One, our crowd still lags behind most of the SEC in enthusiasm and noise. Two, we play better in warmer weather. Three, something about the players' road routine is good or something about the home one is bad. Finally, it could all be a big coincidence. I'm not sure which of these is true, but I am interested in your thoughts. I thought it was interesting and worth mention.

Happy Tuesday.

Bowl Eligible

2009-11-14T17:01:00.005-05:00

This was another weird one. Derrick Locke led Kentucky in passing yards with 41. On the same vein, Morgan Newton had more yards receiving than passing. The Cats won because they played to win in the second half rather than looking for style points or to prove something. It is clear that Brooks and Joker lost almost all confidence in the forward pass after Newton and Hartline threw identical vomit inducing interceptions in the first half. For Hartline's part, I am concerned that he may have lost any chance at more meaningful snaps with one throw.

Back to the main point, this team's offense has an identity. It is built around two athletes the likes of which we rarely see at UK. Watching Cobb and Locke on the sidelines as the game clock ticked away, theirs was a look of understanding, "we just won this game, and we are both banged up and dog tired". Credit must also go to the O-Line, which is also one of the best we've had.

Finally, Sam Maxwell deserves special mention, anchoring the defense while Micah, Trevard and Corey Peters did not have great games. Sam has made a number of big plays this year, but this might have been his best overall as a Cat.

Of course, the best news is of the bigger picture variety. The Cats are bowl eligible for the fourth time in as many years. It is a nice accomplishment. Barring something very unusual, we will be bowling. I still see the Independence Bowl as a likely destination. Of course, this is bad news on a personal front as it is one game I simply won't go to. I've sliced it up and run the numbers, flights etc. a million different ways, but there is no way I can justify it.

So, how do we avoid the Shreveport hole? One way would be to not win another game, hope that everyone else gets to seven wins and we fall past Shreveport to the Papajohns.com Bowl in Birmingham. As things stand, I expect USC to lose to Clemson on 11/28, making them 6-6 and probably the least attractive Bowl participant.

Better yet, we could find a way to win one of the next two games and get into the mix for a number of bowls. Right now, it doesn't appear the SEC will have more than 3-4 eight win teams. I'd say at least one 7-5 team will play on New Year's Day (as USC did last year).

Personally, I haven't sampled the Kool-Aid yet but I believe we have some chance to win each of the games. Georgia has had a disappointing year, but its only home loss is to Florida. Their only bad loss this year was a 45-19 beatdown by UT back on 10/10. Joe Cox has been inconsistent, but pretty darn good when he's been good. Stud receiver A.J. Green was hurt during yesterday's game against Auburn. Not sure of his status. If we play the way we played against Auburn or in the second half of the Vandy game, we at least have a puncher's chance.

I'll be curious to see which UT team shows up in Commonwealth. I am going to have to assume that UT will beat us until we finally beat them, so I can never feel to confident about that game. Still, UT hasn't won a road game, even during the stretch of the season when it was playing lights out. And no matter how much he has improved, they are still quarterbacked by Jonathon Crompton. So we shall see.

I know nothing about Cobb's shoulder, but word did not today that Hartline will sit the remainder of the regular season. He wasn't ready to play yesterday, that's for sure.

More during the week.

Live Blog for a big game

2009-11-13T21:25:00.001-05:00

UK at Vandy

Cover it Live Saturday at 12:15

2009-11-12T15:49:00.002-05:00

Sorry there has not been much substantive content this week. I am stuck in the Ashland Plaza Hotel this week, which is not particularly Wi-fi or hot water in the shower friendly. In any event, I hope that as many readers as possible will tune in with laptop in hand, whether you are able to watch the game or not.

Pundits' UK Bowl Projections

2009-11-10T21:34:00.002-05:00

Here are where other Internet sites have the Cats bowling.

ESPN Mark Schlabach
Independence Bowl v. Missouri

ESPN Bruce Feldman
Music City Bowl v. Florida State

SI Stewart Mandel
Independence Bowl v. Kansas
(Mandel has all the SEC teams in the same spots I do.)

CFN Scout
Papajohns.com v. West Virginia

MSNBC John Tamanaha
Papajohns.com v. West Virginia

CBS Sportsline
Papajohns.com v. Rutgers

Like me, ESPN.com SEC blogger Chris Low does not pick opponents, but he has us in the Independence Bowl. While we are here, Low recently wrote this post touting Randall Cobb as the SEC's most versatile player.

I concur.

Nov 10 Bowl Projections

2009-11-10T09:34:00.004-05:00

Without further adieu, my latest bowl projections based on renewed picks for the remaining games.

1. Florida 12-0, 8-0

Sugar

2. Tennessee 8-4, 5-3

Outback

3. Georgia 7-5, 5-3

Liberty

4. South Carolina 6-6, 3-5

Papajohns.com

5. Kentucky 6-6, 2-6

Independence

6. Vandy 2-10, 0-8

West

1. Alabama 12-0, 8-0

National Championship

2. LSU 10-2, 6-2

Capital One

3(t). Auburn 7-5, 3-5

Chick-Fil-A

3(t). Arkansas 7-5, 3-5

Cotton

5. Mississippi State 3-5, 5-7

Out

6. Ole Miss 2-6, 6-6

Music City

A few games this weekend will really clarify the SEC middle tier picture. UT goes to Ole Miss, in a game I have UT winning. (In fact, my standings assume that Mississippi loses out, including a home loss to Mississippi State to end the season.) Ole Miss is actually a four point favorite against UT, so it could go either way. Auburn travels to Georgia and again the home team is favored by less than a TD. I have Georgia pulling that one out but to me it is another coin flip. If both those games fall the other way, the picture changes substantially.

As to the slotting, there are a couple of total guesses. If the standings are as above, the Cotton would be choosing between Auburn, Arkansas and Georgia. With the relative proximity, Gus Malzahn's offense, and Ryan Mallett's cannon right arm, I'd pick Arkansas. Also, assuming it plays out exactly as above, there is a good chance the Cats sneak into the Music City at 6-6. I can see that committee picking Ole Miss, because Jevan Snead was once a Heisman contender and they might make for a more competitive game. On the other hand, the Rebels would have had a ridiculously disappointing year, and the Music City might prefer to rely on Old Faithful and ensure a good crowd. I don't think South Carolina will be an attractive participant unless they manage to beat Clemson in their last game, climbing the ladder to 7-5. They will be at the end of the line otherwise.

Of course, none of this talk means much if we cannot beat Vandy Saturday.

SEC Previews

2009-11-05T19:06:00.002-05:00

Quick look at this weekend's games in the SEC:

South Carolina (6-3, 3-3) v. Arkansas (1-4, 4-4). Tough one to handicap. Homestanding Arkansas is a 7 point favorite, which seems high. USC has had exactly one bad game, but seems to have fallen out of favor. Arkansas has one quality win (Auburn), but could virtually punch its ticket to the postseason with a win.

Tennessee Tech (5-3) at Georgia (4-4, 3-3) Safe game between the hedges. TT opened its season with Pikeville College.

Furman (4-4) at Auburn (6-3, 3-3) Auburn takes on the Paladins and former Two-A-Days star Max Lerner, now a junior SS.

LSU (7-1, 4-1) at Alabama (8-0, 5-0) Can the Tigers mount any sort of offense against the Tide? If so, this could be a very competitive game. Given the rest of the slate, this is the game of the week in the SEC. LSU can still get into a BCS bowl and has an outside chance at the National Championship game. But is has to start with a win Saturday. Alabama is rock solid, and has had a week off since its wake up call against UT.

Memphis (2-6) at Tennessee (4-4, 2-3) Oh how I wish I could gaze into the crystal ball and see a gigantic, nail splitting toe stub. But I don't. Pity that.

Vandy (2-7, 0-5) at Florida (8-0, 6-0) Vandy was beating Georgia Tech 31-28 with a minute left in the third quarter last week. This is a cause for concern in Wildcat nation. In Gainesville, not so much. The SEC's only dead man walking is about to take a beatdown.

Northern Arizona (5-3) at Ole Miss (5-3, 2-3) Who made the damned schedule this week, anyway?

I will say this, though. The SEC has five games this week against non-BCS conference teams. Though it is unlikely, that is a lot of chances for someone to spit the bit. Lets hope it isn't us.

Late night thoughts and a couple of links

2009-11-04T23:07:00.005-05:00

Quick post on a Wednesday night. Interesting week for a UK Football Fan. We are faced with a must win game against what should be an overmatched opponent in EKU. Losing this game would be Catastrophic, but it isn't likely. Assuming we do win, we face what will be one of the most important UK Football games of the decade at Vandy. Sound melodramatic? Not at all. If this team doesn't get to a bowl because it lost to both Vandy and Mississippi State, we will have coughed up nearly all the momentum we've gained over the past three years. This has to happen. Nothing else is acceptable.

This wasn't supposed to be a rebuilding year. A solid O-line, the starter at quarterback, the team's best athlete and two studs at key positions on defense all returned. Next year, we'll be without Trevard, Micah, Maxwell, Connor, Peters, Jorge Gonzales, Zipp Duncan, Jordan Jeffries and more. That may be the rebuilding year. We need the extra practice and momentum a bowl will provide if we have any hope of moving the program forward in the next 2-3 years.

So, the Vandy game is huge. But so it this one. Because if we don't get it, the whole rest of the season is for naught.

Against this backdrop, there are two ways you can go. And a couple of blogs I follow were kind enough to do so. Truzenzuzex over at A Sea of Blue decides to ignore the chances of losing to Eastern and instead focus on whether we can pick up two more SEC wins. On the other hand, Christopher Johns over at KSR says that the EKU game makes him nervous.

I'm kind of in the middle. EKU is the ultimate trap because it seems foregone, our sixth win cannot come until the following week, and Vandy is always a dogfight. Still, the point on ASOB is a good one. We don't have to play, so we can afford to look ahead. And if we don't win this Saturday, the whole thing is shot to hell anyway. So why not.

Personally, I just hope the team and the crowd show up Saturday. More to come.

New Look

2009-11-03T22:13:00.002-05:00

Tonight UK Football Fan got an impromptu facelift. The template change was necessary to accommodate "Cover it Live" software I experimented with while "Desparate Housewives" droned on in the background. I'll be doing a couple of live blogs over the next few weeks. I may give it a dry run on a weeknight with the plan to take on the Vandy game on November 14th and assuming people actually log on and chat with me, the Georgia game the following week.
In a related note, my plans to attend the Vandy game with the whole fam were shot by the 12:21 start. Thanks ESPN. At least the broadcast on the SEC Network will be top notch. Or not. Good excuse to check out my live blog for some Scutchesque commentary.

SEC Bowl/Standings projections

2009-11-02T22:10:00.004-05:00

Time for me to eat some crow. Last week I came up with my initial Bowl Projections by predicting the outcome for each SEC team's remaining games, setting final records, and slotting the teams accordingly. I then made the fatal mistake of bragging that I went 16-3 on in conference games from this point forward last year.

This past weekend I went a paltry 1-3, missing on USC-UT, Ole Miss-Auburn and of course, Mississippi State-UK. As a result, there is a lot of movement in this week's picks. The big loser from last week? Take a wild guess. UT, on the other hand, really helped themselves out.

Note: I did not change the outcome of any future games based on last weekend's performances. In the future I might do so, couldn't justify it this time. Teams have been up and down from week to week, and none of these outcomes were exactly shocking.

Still, I figure South Carolina and Ole Miss are most likely to fall from their spots here. Conversely Mississippi State could still get to 6-6 and steal a bid, but it will take a huge effort (must win 2 games with Ala, @Ark and Ole Miss remaining)

Finally, there is a lot more guesswork involved in the bowl slotting this week. If the standings shook out this way, things like fan support, geography and sex appeal come into play for everything from about the Cotton on down.

East

1. Florida, 8-0, 12-0
Sugar

2. Tennessee 5-3, 8-4
Outback

3. Georgia 5-3, 7-5
Chick-Fil-A

4. South Carolina 3-5, 7-5
Music City

5. Kentucky 2-6, 6-6
Pizza Web Site Bowl

6. Vandy 0-8, 2-10
Out of the soup

WEST

1. Alabama 8-0, 12-0
National Championship

2. LSU 6-2, 10-2
Capital One Bowl

3. Mississippi 4-4, 8-4
Cotton

4. Auburn 3-5, 7-5
Liberty

5. Arkansas 2-6, 6-6
Independence

6. Mississippi State 2-6, 4-8
Still not bowling

Post Mortem

2009-11-01T10:47:00.003-05:00

I had a nearly perfect day yesterday until about 8:45. Got a workout in, wrote a blog post, ran a couple of errands to stay in the good graces, got the kids dressed up for Halloween, went to a party, handed out candy, watched a pretty good first half of football. Then someone flipped a switch, Anthony Dixon turned into Walter Peyton, Morgan Newton threw a Jared Lorenzen lowlight film pick, and questionable plays were called. A wormhole opened beneath me, and I fell in.

Last night's loss is hard to swallow, more for what it does to our season than anything else. Unlike the earlier loss to USC, where the little things killed us, this was a case of being thoroughly outplayed and outcoached.

UK was outgained from scrimmage 493-308. In fact, MSU gained more yards on the ground (348) than UK did total. We lost the turnover battle 3-2, including the aforementioned pick and a rare mistake by Randall Cobb on a fumbled lateral he didn't fall on.

The Bulldogs beat us by running the same counter play over and over and over. We either couldn't or didn't adjust. This was part of a larger picture of being completely outschemed. Knowing we had to successfully run the Wildcat to win, MSU was clearly ready for it. We didn't adjust by mixing in a few passes. So unsuccessful were we at running the ball from the formation that we abandoned it entirely. This decision could very well have cost us the game.

We trailed 31-24 with a minute left in the third quarter. Mississippi State made only one first down for the rest of the game, yet we managed the clock so poorly that we got only two more possessions. At one point on the final drive we were forced to burn a timeout, which effectively took away our chance at another possession.

In Newton's defense, it is hard to say that the pick he threw on the second to last drive cost us the game. We were on the four yard line, and had he thrown the ball away, we would have likely kicked a field goal. Of course, we never scored again anyway and there is no reason to assume we would have. Also, on second and third viewings, I think Newton was trying to throw the ball away and simply did a poor job of it.

Of course questions are going to be asked. Why wasn't Cobb playing QB when we had first and goal at the 4 in the fourth quarter? Where was the Wildcat on the last drive? These may be valid questions, but they are classic Monday morning quarterbacking.

The most troubling aspect of this game is where it leaves our season. Assuming we beat EKU next week, we will become bowl eligible with a win at Vandy on Nov. 14th. But we are in a completely different position than we would have been had we won this game. Mississippi State now has an outside chance at six wins. If that happens, the SEC could have more bowl eligible teams than slots. Auburn has probably moved ahead of us in the pecking order by knocking off Ole Miss Saturday. Six wins is a ticket to Shreveport or Birmingham or, if everything breaks wrong, home.

There is some good news. Trevard Lindley should be able to return next week for the rest of the season. I suppose there is still a chance Mike Hartline makes it back for Vandy. We need to hope that EKU will be a walkover and Micah, Locke, Cobb etc. can grab some pine early and rest up for the stretch run.

Previews

2009-10-31T11:22:00.003-04:00

A couple of links and notes on a lazy Saturday. Tonight is huge. If Kentucky is going to, as Rich Brooks would say, climb the SEC ladder, this is a must win game. The Bulldogs have played several big opponents close, yet they come to Commonwealth with a losing record, an interception prone QB and, well the fact that they are Mississippi State. We are very banged up, granted. But mid-tier SEC teams have to be able to beat Mississippi State at home.

Micah Johnson's status is important. Brooks has said that he is available to play but will not start. This is something coaches do that I've never understood. Yes, he might be well enough to play but not to play the whole game. I get that. But why not start the guy so you can see right away what you will be able to do with him? Not a criticism of Brooks, I am sure that coaches do this for some reason. For what it is worth, Johnson tweeted Thursday that he had no knee pain in practice. (Yeah, I broke down on the Twitter thing. I don't send tweets, but I do follow some strategic people. I suck, I know.)

This week has yielded surprisingly little discussion about our starting quarterback. I guess it is a foregone conclusion that we will go with the three headed monster again. Will Fidler has earned the right to start this game, and I would be more comfortable with he and Cobb at the helm tonight. Newton has a ton of potential, but tonight is not a learning curve kind of evening. Beat Mississippi State and get the freshman more experience next week.

Keep an eye on Danny Trevathan and Sam Maxwell tonight. Without Micah, they'll be tasked with filling up the vacuum of run support. Anthony Dixon and the MSU running attack are potent. Our run defense has not been. We are going to be vulnerable. I have confidence in Ronnie Snead, but he is not Micah Johnson.

For anyone curious, I will be watching the game on TV tonight after hustling the kids home from Halloween goodness. See that kid in that picture up there? You try telling his sister and him that they aren't going trick or treating because daddy is going to a football game. Not happening. If you'll be there tonight, make sure to wear black and cheer loudly for me.

Tonight, I think both teams make plays, and we have trouble stopping the run. A special teams blunder or two could really sabotage a game like this, which should be nip and tuck. In the end, I think Randall Cobb makes one more play than the Mississippi State offense and we get it done. Lets call it Kentucky 24 Mississippi State 21.

A couple of links to take us out:

Today, Chip Cosby has a great article about how big this rivalry has become. Key point: the home loss to Mississipi State in 2007 crushed what could have been an unforgettable season for what I agree was the best team of the Brooks era.

This site's new friends at A Sea of Blue come with a monster post breaking down Mississippi State from every angle. Key point: This game determines whether we have any chance to get above the Music City/Liberty tier of Bowls.

SEC Preview

2009-10-31T00:04:00.002-04:00

The plot starts to thicken in the SEC this weekend, as it does in all of college football. A little more on UK tomorrow. Here are a some quick hits on the other SEC games.

12:21 Ole Miss (5-2) at Auburn (5-3)
In handling a game Arkansas 30-17 last week, Ole Miss showed the signs many expeted to see when the season began. Jevan Snead is still throwing picks, though. Auburn is sliding with three straight losses after starting the year 5-0. Now would be a good time to right the ship. The Tigers still have to play Alabama at home and Georgia on the road. For its part, Ole Miss still has a realistic chance at 10-2 and at least a backdoor shot at a BCS Bowl.

3:30 Florida (7-0) v. Georgia (4-3) at Jacksonville, Fl.
The World's Largest Game That Shall Not Be Named. It is an intriguing one. Florida has not played a dominant game since, well, since kicking the crap out of us on September 26th. Georgia has lost two games to very good teams (Okla. St. and LSU) and suffered a head scratching blowout at the hands of Kiffin U. Something tells me Joe Cox and Co. are going to be in this till the end. This isn't a bad team.

7:00 Eastern Michigan (0-7) at Arkansas (3-4)
Think the Razorbacks are safe here. Good thing, because they don't get much slack the rest of the way.

7:30 Georgia Tech (7-1) at Vandy (2-6)
I'd love to think that the SEC is so much better than the ACC that this game will be way closer than it is on paper. I don't. Vandy will be the first SEC team knocked out of bowl contention this weekend.

7:45 USC (6-2) at Tennessee (3-4) in
The Cocks are looking like an elite SEC team but must travel to Knoxville, where they'll face a possibility resurgent UT squad. The Vols shellacked Georgia two weeks ago and were within a blocked field goal of upsetting Alabama last week. Should Tennessee lose, it must close the season 3-1 (and almost assuredly beat the Cats Nov. 28th) to go to a bowl. I cannot call this one. It is the game of the week in the SEC.

8:00 Tulane at LSU
There are worse choices in life than "Am I going stay in New Orleans to watch this game at a bar or drive to Baton Rouge, tailgate and take it all in at Death Valley." If you are an undergrad at Tulane right now please note that I am insanely jealous.

More UK specifics soon.

Link of the Day

2009-10-30T16:49:00.002-04:00

If you don't read anything else today, check out this hilarious column by Drew Franklin at Kentucky Sports Radio about the Mississippi State game. Drew goes out of the yard with this one.

Projected SEC Standings/Bowls

2009-10-27T08:52:00.010-04:00

In addition to Bowl projections, I've projected the final wins and losses for each SEC team. I did go through every remaining game on each team's schedule and pick a winner. As always, yes I have a responsible, demanding job and yes, this task took quite some time. But, the point is, these standing present a realistic scenario and everything adds up. I went 16-3 picking conference games from this point forward last year. We'll see how accurate this turns out to be.

Records are SEC followed by overall.

EAST

1. Florida 8-0, 12-0
Sugar

2. Georgia 5-3, 7-5
Chick-Fil-A

3. South Carolina 4-4, 8-4
Outback

4. Tennessee 4-4, 7-5
Music City

5. Kentucky 3-5, 7-5
Liberty

6. Vandy 0-8, 2-10
Momma's home cooking.

WEST

1. Alabama 5-0, 8-0
National Championship

2. LSU 6-2, 10-2
Capital One

3. Ole Miss 5-3, 9-3
Cotton

4. Auburn 2-6, 6-6
Papajohns.com

5. Arkansas 2-6, 6-6
Independence

6. Mississippi State 1-7, 3-9
Home for the holidays.

Some notes on this:

There were tough calls on some games. Some assumptions were: UK beats Vandy and Mississippi State, loses its other games; UT beats USC at home; LSU wins at Ole Miss; USC wins at Arkansas. In fact, a number of South Carolina's games were tough to predict. It also has to play Clemson at home on the last game of the season, a game I've called a win. Obviously, I am picking Alabama to beat Florida in the SEC Championship. I am torn about that, though.

The bowl picks are guesswork in a couple of spots. I don't know that the Independence Bowl would not take Auburn over Arkansas. Assuming things end up exactly how I have them, the Music City and Liberty would probably both mark Tennessee first of the teams not snatched up be better bowls, giving them their choice of which bowl to go to. UK would get the other. I assume UT would pick the Music City, since it is right in the middle of the state, but who knows. Other than that, if this is how these teams finish, these are the places they'll go.

Tuesday Reset

2009-10-26T20:25:00.010-04:00

A lot to talk about today, which is my way of saying this column will have no central theme.

Lets start with Saturday's game. UK started out just as we all hoped, poised to take care of business. Then the game got, for lack of a better word, kinda weird. Somehow, Cody Wells kept hitting open receivers, getting knocked on his ass, then getting back up to do it again. Our DBs could not make a play in pass coverage, and each of our throwing QBs threw a horrendous pick.

Even the things that went well were weird. John Connor made me wonder if he isn't the best running back on the team. Randall Cobb got interfered with while catching a punt and still ran it back for a touchdown. Rich Brooks went for (and made) two fourth down conversions on our own side of the field. UK desperately just needed to run the clock out on the second half but didn't even try to. Instead, ULM ran nearly the entire third quarter off the clock for us and only managed seven points.

Oh yeah, and ULM got jobbed big time by the clock operator at the close of the first half.

Dichotomies ruled the day. The game was tense but never really in doubt. The Cats did exactly what they had to do but in a manner so unsatisfying it was hard to leave happy. I was freezing cold but the ice in my bourbon and diet coke kept melting.

And then of course, there is The Micah Situation. Watching him limp off in the second quarter I began this internal monologue: "We started the offseason with Micah Johnson, Trevard Lindley and Jeremy Jarmon all back to lead our defense. Jarmon never played a down and is a Redskin, Lindley has missed half the season and there goes Micah who I might not see play again. If this team still gets to 7-5, it is going to be a hell of an accomplishment. It was going to be so sweet but in the end, we effed it all up." (kudos to anyone who comments the movie reference)

Today we learn that Micah has a minor MCL tear and may not be available this weekend. Brooks also reported that Trevard tried to run yesterday, is sore today, and might not be back this weekend as we'd hoped. Hartline is behind where they'd hoped he'd be. Oy vey.

I've softened on the stance I took in the immediate wake of the game. My comment early Sunday morning was that Cobb should be our primary quarterback. There is some logic there since he is clearly the best runner, best thrower and the person the team is most likely to rally behind. In thinking about it more, there are a couple of problems with that. First, he cannot run the ball every down if he plays QB the whole game. He'll die. Secondly, he has proven more effective when used as a change of pace. Still, I am torn.

The point that Cobb is the team's best receiver is not lost on me. However, this seemed more important when Hartline was healthy. The other QBs aren't as capable of getting him the ball, so it isn't as important. For what it is worth, knowing that Cobb will probably take the snaps when we need a score, I think next Saturday should be Will Fidler's turn to start. Newton has struggled, and this game is just too important. Win Saturday, and there will be other chances to spread the wealth. And again, I expect the ball in Cobb's hands when the game is on the line.

While we are here, the last couple of weeks and this past Saturday especially validates the decision to stick with Hartline through the Alabama and Florida losses and on into the USC game. Clearly, Newton was not ready, and as game as he's been, Fidler does not have Hartline's decision making ability.

This weekend will bring the season's most important game to date. This is a game that the Cats need if they are going to have a good season. Mississippi State has an even greater sense of urgency. Sitting at 3-5, having played competitively in nearly every game, the Bulldogs absolutely have to have this game to have any shot at a bowl. Alabama comes to town for them next week. Then come two winnable games at Arkansas, then finishing up with Ole Miss at home in the Egg Bowl. They are still in the hunt but barely, and it will have to start for them at Commonwealth on Halloween.

Bowl projections may come as early as tomorrow. Bottom line, the Cats might be part of a mad scrum of 7-5 teams jockeying for positions ranging from Chick-Fil-A goodness all the way to Shreveport/Bossier City hell. Should be interesting.

Reality

2009-10-25T01:02:00.005-04:00

We'll talk some more tomorrow. For now, lets say this. If we are going to win the two SEC games we need to win in the next three weeks, you, me and the Kentucky coaching staff know what has to happen. It isn't what Rich Brooks or I would have wanted, but here goes. Randall Cobb is your quarterback in November. Period.

University of Louisiana at Monroe Preview

2009-10-24T13:31:00.003-04:00

Today the Sunbelt's ULa at Monroe Warhawks come to Commonwealth. You may have heard this already by now, but this is a pretty good football team. The Warhawks are 4-2, their losses coming to Texas (59-20) and Arizona State (38-14). These guys last played 11 days ago, beating Arkansas State 16-10, their only game since October 3rd. Quarterback Trey Revell hurt his hand in that game and reportedly will not play tonight. Revell was having a big year. He will be replaced by a freshman, Cody Wells. The Warhawks will be led by TB Frank Goodin, who averages over 90 yards a game.

Allright, this is taking too long to piece together, and I doubt anyone gives a crap. Here is your preview. This is a losable game. ULa Monroe comes in with a better team than the Middle Tennessee squad that come within a shoestring tackle of beating the Cats last year. Last week's win was awesome but this Cats team is still in a precarious spot. It appears that we will use three different quarterbacks today, which I must admit isn't ideal. Thankfully Derrick Locke's knee improved over the course of the week and will be available.

The Warhawks have had a balanced attack all year (about 200 yards per game on the ground and in the air) but with their QB out will probably rely on the running game. Kentucky had success playing their base 4-3 last week. My guess is they'll stick with this plan and forgo nickel and dime packages. I think ULM will have trouble mounting a lot of offense. With that in mind, the key today is for the Cats to come out focused and have some success of offense early. Beyond that, we need to avoid mistakes, particularly giving up touchdowns on special teams.

Ideally, this is a game that we would win going away. We could give both throwing QBs some work, and possibly get some rest for a few guys (Cobb and Locke come to mind, but it would also be good to get guys like Corey Peters, Ricky Lumkin and some of the O Line a break). Something tells me we will still be biting our nails well into the fourth quarter, though. Still, I feel pretty confident in the end result, if for no other reason than our Defense should own them.

I am in the Blue Lot today starting at about 3:30. Stop by and say hello.

Bowl Projections? Not yet.

2009-10-21T22:47:00.006-04:00

There was some clamoring (ok, one request) after the win this weekend for me to start in with the SEC bowl projections and speculation about where UK might go. I am going to hold off at least one more week. After checking the tape, I found that I didn't start until October 26th last year. At that time, UK had five wins and was heading to Starkeville. In an unrelated note, I posted a hell of a lot more last year.

I won't predict today, but here are some general observations:

1. Once again, the SEC seems assured of sending two teams to BCS bowls. This means ten bowl slots are available for our beloved conference. More details on this later, but for now, know that the rough pecking order is BCS(x2),Capital One, (Cotton, Outback), Chick-Fil-A, (Liberty, Music City), Independence, Papajohns.com.

2. Coincidentally, I project that ten SEC teams will be bowl eligible. Vandy and Mississippi State look like they will miss the cut. UK, Arkansas and Tennessee could end up staying home if they don't take care of business, but in each case it is unlikely. Everyone else has a fairly safe ticket. Caveat: Keep one eye on Ole Miss, which is probably stunned at the direction its season has taken and could collapse.

3. This means, unlike last year, 6-6 is probably not going to get the Cats or anyone else above the dreaded Shreveport hole. Six wins is probably a ticket either there or to the Pizza web site Bowl (in Birmingham, a place I actually wouldn't mind going). Last year, the Cats were able to sneak into the Liberty Bowl at 6-6 by virtue of collapses by Auburn, UT, and Arkansas who all finished 5-7. I don't think that will happen again.

4. I enjoyed looking at Chris Low's ESPN.com SEC blog tonight. He has projections for bowls, and also does a good job at calling each team's "best case" and "worst case" for the close of the season. He has us finishing 7-5, along with a host of other SEC teams.

5. At gunpoint, I'd pick Florida to beat Alabama in the SEC championship game, and end up playing for the national title. I think the Tide is a better team, but I'd never bet against Tim Tebow in a game he has to have.

6. More on this weekend's opponent, who we'd better take seriously, later in the week.

7. Anyone have a parking pass that will go to waste Saturday if you don't give it to me?

Top 5 wins of the Brooks era

2009-10-19T21:15:00.002-04:00

Saturday's huge win got me thinking about the best wins of the Rich Brooks era and where the game might fall on that list. Over the last few days I've given it some thought. A couple of notes. I think #1 and #2 are set in stone. The rest vary depending on your criteria. There were wins that were big upsets, wins that weren't necessarily unexpected but happened unexpectedly, and wins that were huge at the time but seem smaller in retrospect. Secondly, I began with the reflexive conclusion that every big win of the Brooks era occurred either during or since the 2006 season. I was not wrong. If you don't think we've come very far, take a look at the 2003, 2004 and 2005 wins and losses. We were abysmal.

Without further adieu:
1. October 13, 2007-Kentucky 43, LSU 37 (3OT). Duh. Cats beat the then #1 and eventual national champion Bayou Bengals. A couple of lost facts: Oft maligned Lones Seiber sent the game into the third OT by nailing a 43 yarder. Cats were without Rafael Little and were led in rushing by then freshman Derrick Locke, who had 64 yards and a score.

2. September 15, 2007-Kentucky 40, U of L 34. Best atmosphere at Commonwealth since I've been in Kentucky. Arch rival comes in at #9 in the country, fresh off a 12-1 Orange Bowl winning season. They are thinking national championship. Some could say the win is tainted by Louisville falling into a wormhole, losing to Syracuse the following week, and finishing 6-6. Not me, because I'll never forget the feeling of watching Andre hit a wide open Stevie down the left sideline with less than a minute left.

3. November 4, 2oo6-Kentucky 24, UGA 20. First real judgment call here. This win gets the edge because it ushered in the "New Kentucky" era. The Cats broke a nine game losing streak to the Dogs. Also, Andre Woodson outplayed his Georgia counterpart, a freshman by the name of Matthew Stafford. Stafford threw three picks that afternoon, Tony Dixon scored with a minute left, and the goalposts came down.

4. October 19, 2009- Kentucky 21-Auburn 14. Best road win of the Brooks era. Still too recent to put into proper perspective. To say the chips were down for the Cats going into last Saturday is an understatement. To say we played about as well as we could have possibly played that evening is about right. Incredible night.

5. December 29, 2006-Kentucky 28, Clemson 20 (Music City Bowl). Subsequent bowl trips have been less climactic due to all the suspensions for Florida State in 2007 and the Conference USA opponent in 2008. But the first Music City Bowl win was impactful. I walked into that game with a "just happy to be here" vibe and was surprised to win. This game gave the players confidence and helped put the program in the position its in now.

Honorable mention: UK 21-Ark 20 (Hartline 2 TD to Cobb in last five minutes 2008); UK 42-Ark 29 (at Arkansas 2007, we rose to #8 after this win); UK 25-East Carolina 19 (fun, fun, fun comeback in Memphis in 2008).

Discuss.

Is Rich Brooks reading UK Football Fan?

2009-10-19T13:49:00.002-04:00

Of course not, but this bears mention. If I were a better writer and didn't waste so many words, we'd have said the same thing.

Here was my post this morning as it related to Will Fidler:

Sometimes things don't go your way as an athlete. Hearing that he wasn't starting this game had to be crushing for Will. As a fourth year senior, his chance had finally come, until he learned that his freshman teammate who had never thrown a college pass was taking what I'm sure he thought was a spot he'd earned. Will kept his head up and delivered when he was called upon. I feel great for him.

As reported by John Clay, here was what Rich Brooks said about Will at today's press luncheon:

“I couldn’t be proud of Will Fidler if he were my own son. It hasn’t gone his way, so to speak. But he’s come out every day and competes and works to get it done. . . . Last week was the ultimate slap in the face for him when we elected to start the freshman quarterback and he handled it well.”

While we are here, I cannot imagine a higher compliment to get from your head coach.

Saturday Review-Look ahead

2009-10-18T22:23:00.005-04:00

How about that? Yesterday, I said the Cats would need to play a near perfect game to win, and I was about right. I cannot remember a game where a team did not commit a penalty. Add to that some great D, tremendous running and run blocking, and just enough passing game to keep Auburn's defense honest, and you have a huge SEC road win, a potential season altering momentum swing, and one of the five or six best wins of the Rich Brooks era.

There is a lot to go over and a lot of love to spread around. I'll start with Will Fidler. Sometimes things don't go your way as an athlete. Hearing that he wasn't starting this game had to be crushing for Will. As a fourth year senior, his chance had finally come, until he learned that his freshman teammate who had never thrown a college pass was taking what I'm sure he thought was a spot he'd earned. Will kept his head up and delivered when he was called upon. I feel great for him.

As I said before the game Randall Cobb and Derrick Locke are All-SEC talents. The world is about to know it soon. I think Cobb is a four year player here, and I think when he is done he goes down as one of the best to ever wear Blue and White.

The Offensive line is the most underrated aspect of the team. We've run successfully against nearly every team on the schedule. That is because of these guys. Between the legs of Cobb and Locke, and the holes the line is opening up, this team has found its identity.

Obviously the defense played well, with Warford back the secondary was much improved. Yesterday belonged to the linebackers, particularly OLB's Danny Travathan and Sam Maxwell, who joined Micah as leading tacklers this week.

Finally, I cannot say enough about the special teams. Steve Ortmeyer has them rounding into fine form. We had one field goal attempt that was not blocked and run back for a touchdown, and for the first straight week, all of the Cat's punts went for at least double digit yards.

Okay, so it isn't all gushing. While I am picking nits, Winston Guy needs to stop headhunting and start hitting and wrapping. One, he is going to hurt himself or someone else, and two, he is missing sure tackles while trying to create highlights.

Anyway, this is one hell of a win. When you consider how badly the deck was stacked against them, the Cats really did have what ESPN.com's SEC blogger termed the "gutsiest win in the SEC this year".

In the context of the whole season, this is a very good thing. If you'd asked me point blank before the season started, I would have been very happy with 3-3 at this point. Looking back at my preseason predictions, I did have UK winning this game. But I didn't know then that Auburn would be 5-1 and only one week removed from being #17 in the country then. In fact, I did not have Auburn going to a bowl in the preseason.

We line up with what looks like four straight winnable games. This weekend, I hope, will not be a toe stub. The Cats need to move the chains, put some points on the board, and tear the hearts out of ULA-Monroe early.

Next comes an intriguing matchup against a pretty fair Mississippi State team. New coach Dan Mullins has these guys playing ball. The Bulldogs came within a foot of beating LSU and were tied with Houston going into the fourth quarter last week. They have manhandled Vandy and taken care of non conference opponents thus far. Don't forget it was Mississippi State that came into Commonwealth in 2007 and stunned the best UK team this decade 31-14, ruining our chance at a special season. I'd like to see this game played at night. We'll find that out tomorrow. This should be the toughest of the four games, and assuming nothing goes haywire next week, we are probably 3-4 point favorites.

EKU should provide a safe win and pave the way for a November 14th roadie at Vandy. I expected this to be a big game, but the 'Dores are reeling at 2-5, and have South Carolina, Georgia Tech and Florida over the next three weeks. Bowl eligibility will probably be out the window, but the chance to play spoiler for a team that has spoiled a lot of its seasons will not be. On the other hand, Vandy may have thrown in the towel by then. We won't know that until we get down there, so I wouldn't take it lightly.

More to come this week. It is starting to get interesting.

Uk at Auburn

2009-10-17T15:16:00.003-04:00

Certainly, today is a more mellow Saturday in UK Football Fan land. My string of attending every game of the year draws to a close today. I'll be watching the game from the comfort of my in-laws living room. This should be one of the more intriguing contests of recent vintage. Morgan Newton is the most highly regarded Quarterback we've recruited since Tim Couch. Though the circumstances that brought this about are the best, I think many Cats fans are anxious to see what we have. Unfortunately, whoever is playing QB tonight has his work cut out for him. Make no mistake, the Cats will have to catch lightening in a bottle to win. A number of things need to go right.

1. Effective quarterback play. We don't need to throw for 300 yards, but we'll need enough of a passing game to keep Auburn from loading up the box with 8-9 guys every play.

2. Improved play on special teams. This is becoming a real sticking point for me, because I think the situation has a simple fix. Steve Ortmeyer has to get these kids to play better for him. If Auburn starts every drive at the 50, it will be a long night.

3. Look for the ball. Our young corners did a good job of sticking to their men last week. The reason they were torched was not turning around and giving themselves a chance to make a play on the ball. Chris Todd is very comparable to USC's Stephen Garcia. He is more than capable of exploiting us.

4. Locke and Cobb. These guys have All-SEC talent. One or both really needs to get down for us to win.

5. Turnover battle. Cats won this 2-0 last week, which is the only reason were were still in it to the end.

6. Big play. In a closely related point, the Cats need a huge play on defense to compensate for what should be a rather difficult game on O. Without Trevard, it is hard to tell who this might come from.

If all of these things happen, we win, but I pretty much think we will need them all. As I said, lightning in a bottle. Good luck to Fidler, Newton, or both.

Hartline post

2009-10-12T20:46:00.003-04:00

Today comes the news that Mike Hartline is out for several weeks, if not the season, with a torn MCL, partially torn PCL and cartilage damage. The Kentucky quarterback drama has played out in an almost Shakespearean fashion. Fans have called for Hartline to be replaced for most of his career. I myself said last Friday that Brooks should give someone else time in the USC game if Hartline was laying an egg.

Of course, we know that isn't what happened. Hartline was playing the game of his life when fate intervened, his knee bent grotesquely underneath him on a play that should have been blown dead before it developed. Though not in the way any sane person had hoped for, many would get their wish that someone else would be playing quarterback for Kentucky by game's end.

Side note here: Corey Peters was quoted in the paper Sunday as saying that the fans had gotten what they'd wanted, which I read to mean that they wanted Hartline injured. I think that is a load of crap, and Brooks should not let his players blast the fans in the media like this. Unlike Tennessee fans and their boy Jonathan Crompton, I've never heard one person suggest he or she wanted to see Hartline hurt. He is a good kid who has done nothing but work hard. Wanting to see him replaced is a far cry from wishing for this.

So, if not Shakespeare, it is at least a Twilight Zone episode. An Alanis Morisette, if not textbook definition, version of irony. Karma for the fans. Call it what you will. I think it sucks, because even as someone who did not have a ton of confidence in Hartline, I knew that if Fidler or someone else went in and played poorly, the coaches could chalk it up as a failed experiment and put Hartline back in. That cannot happen now. Plus, I feel horrible for Hartline, a kid who has already had to put up with more than any recent Kentucky athlete not named Saul Smith.

So, what to do? Brooks has said, and I totally agree with him, that he is not going to go with Randall Cobb as a full-time QB. Too much is invested in the downfield passing offense, and Cobb is too valuable in his other roles. What do I think the staff should do? Drumroll . . . . .

I don't have the foggiest idea. And you know why? Because I have never seen Morgan Newton throw a pass except on ESPNU against a high school team, and unless someone surprising is reading this blog, neither have you. People have been calling for him all year, but the truth is, we have no idea how ready he is to play because we aren't at the practices. I trust this coaching staff to make the right decision about who is best to put on the field. My hope is, however, that they are willing to be flexible.

That is because another dynamic is at work here. I never played college football, but I've been on dozens of sports teams in every other imaginable level and something always rings true. While one can predict game success by how a player practices, it is never a certainty. Players disappoint and surprise daily.

The guess here is that Will Fidler starts under center Saturday. The staff won't want to put the pressure of a roadie against a stinging Auburn squad on a true freshman. If we are losing badly and Fidler struggles, the redshirt will come off and Newton finishes the game, then is your starter in what should be a confidence building turn against Louisiana Monroe. Cobb will have an expanded role at QB, and may take as many as half of the snaps, but the game will not get turned over to him completely unless both the other guys are abysmal.`

Unless Fidler can be successful, there is little to lose by playing Newton. Either he proves himself and competes for a job through the end of the year and into next year, or he is not near the quarterback Hartline is and redshirts next year while Hartline starts as a senior.

Like everything else with UK Football, though, it is never easy.

USC

2009-10-11T00:07:00.002-04:00

Needless to say, today is a day to play the old "iffin" game.

*If we were healthy at corner.
*If we had the ability to defend a kickoff return.
*If Cobb had played the whole second half at QB.
*If we had a team that did not commit silly penalties in clutch situations.
*If we had gone out of the Wildcat on the two point conversion.
*If we hadn't dropped two sure touchdown catches.

There was so much more today. Nothing more important than the cruel godsmack layed down by Kentucky fans. We don't want Mike Hartline as our QB, huh? Well how about we get to watch him play the best half of football in his career, then go down to a season ending (yes, I said it) injury. We wanted a new solution? Well, now we'll have to come up with one. It may not be what we'd all hoped for.

One thing that bears mention? Hartline was hurt on a play that should have been blown dead before it happened. Either too much time or false start (I cannot remember which) on us. The ball should have never been snapped due to a whistle. Why the whole thing was allowed to develop is beyond me.

Finally, Kentucky is lucky to have Randall Cobb in our uniform. It is that simple. There are better football players. Many are bigger. Many are faster. Some have more gaudy stats. Many will go higher in the draft and have more accolades. But you'd be hard pressed to find a player in the country who is more important to his team. It is Tebow'esque. Don't believe me? We'll debate it, because now is not the time to spell it out.

Once again, against this team we played well enough to win. Again, we did not. Next week presents us another chance against a now more vulnerable looking Auburn.

Guys Trip

2009-10-09T02:01:00.002-04:00

Since the whole point of this site is to catch the UK Football experience through the viewpoint of a fan, I guess a word or three is due on my trip to Columbia this weekend to see the Cats take on the Cocks. Last year, I read a book by a young, southern lawyer who took a fall season and attended a game in every SEC venue, some while following his beloved Tennessee Vols, others out of necessity just to finish the trip. Having only ever gone to Vandy to see a road game (and attended Alabama games in Tuscaloosa as a child) I decided the least I could was to duplicate the trip, albeit over the next ten years. The trip to Columbia is the first in what will hopefully be a long line of fun jaunts.

This weekend I am travelling with the boys. As it turns out, two great law school friends (Big Z and Todd) are coming with me from KY and my cousin, Ap (or with apologies to Tucker Max TheCousin) is meeting up with us from Atlanta, where the Danville native is doing some sort of complicated radiology fellowship. Todd and Dave are two of my best (and funniest) friends, and Ap is the brother I never had. So there is almost no way I have a bad time.

Unlike my usual bowl plans, I have very little in the can for this trip. Well, not exactly true. I was able to get killer hotel rooms nine months out. The Courtyard by Marriott Downtown for $115 a night. Two miles from the stadium, right off campus, and very close to the Columbia bar and restaurant scene. Visitors tickets in the lower level courtesy of the asking based on my season tickets at UK and a simple request in July. All in all a good deal. I think that we will try to tailgate tomorrow with a group of UK alumni from "SC Upstate", which Todd learned about today from checking on the plain ole UK alumni web site. Good shit.

Beyond that, though, no restaurant reservations or any other plans for where to be when.

And yes, there is a football game to be played. Vegas has decided that USC is a good team and that we are not. It is USC -9 1/2. That is a chump line, in my opinion. Even with our two starting corners out, this game could go either way. No one really knows how good or bad UK is. We got the dropsys and made the UofL game close. Other than that, we've lost to two vastly superior teams and beaten an over matched one. S Carolina is proven, but it could play well or poorly, depending on the day. They are a clear step down from our last two opponents. There is no reason why UK cannot compete in this game.

That said, Mike Hartline needs to have a decent game tomorrow. If he looks awful, the Cats are justified in trying someone else at QB against Auburn, and giving that person a lot more time against ULA-Monroe the following week if he is successful. I am saying they are justified, I am not saying that it will actually happen. It won't.

Last year I woke up the morning of the UK-USC game and knew that Captain Munnerlyn was going to kill us. I was right, but it wasn't some grand prophecy. It was because he had killed us for his whole career. Munnerlyn is gone, but Eric Norwood is still very much a Cock. I'd fear #40 all day tomorrow. Let's hope for the best, and know that either way, it will be a good weekend for UK Football Fan.

Three Points on a Tuesday

2009-10-06T19:17:00.003-04:00

*A perusal of defensive statistics thus far in the year. Obviously, MLB Micah Johnson leads the team in tackles with 33. SS Calvin Harrison and FS Winston Guy are tied for second with 29 a piece. OLB Danny Trevathan is a distant fourth with 23, followed by OLB Sam Maxwell with 19. Two outside backers who play basically the entire game are well behind a couple of safeties who are splitting time with Matt Lentz and Ashton Cobb. The trend means something obvious. The Cats are giving up too many long plays and are not stopping enough people with their front 7.

*Trevard Lindley is out for the game against South Carlina, and CB Paul Warford is questionable. One of the pre-season rallying cries, along with the improvement of Hartline and the alleged studliness of Juco transfer Chris Matthews, was the depth in the secondary. Well, we've seen these other two issues exposed as myths thus far. We need one to hold.

*Mike Hartline's passer rating of 112.7 leaves him 93rd out of 114 Division 1A QB, and behind UT whipping boy Jonathan Crompton. Of course, he is the only QB who had to play Florida and Alabama in back to back weeks. For the record, I did not think the stache played that poorly against Florida. His picks were late in the game and he threw some good balls early on that didn't pan out. In contrast, I started to turn a bit on Mike during the Alabama game. The picks were all horrendous and the offense just seemed to run better when he wasn't in there. I am not quite ready to throw in the towel due to who we've played in the last two weeks. But I am starting to believe I was right about Mike Hartline.

Saturday Brain Dump

2009-10-03T08:13:00.004-04:00

First of all, UK Football Fan was totally on ice for the last two weeks. I apologize. Both work and real life intervened at the same time, leaving me too frazzled to write by the end of every day for the last two weeks. Here are some nuggets for a Saturday, UK-Ala. game day morning. I'll catch up on a couple of thoughts.

*I was as disappointed as everyone else with the game last week. It is one thing to get beat physically and with speed against Florida. If you cannot see the talent discrepancy on the field, then you don't know much about football. But I cannot excuse the lack of execution and the fact that we were not ready to play. You cannot be lining up wrong in the SEC, playing the number one team in the nation.

*You look at a team like Missouri, who has been able to compete in the Big 12 for the last few years. They cannot recruit like the teams in Texas and Oklahoma, so there will always be a talent gap. But they have good schemes, particularly on offense, and they GO OUT AND EXECUTE. To make the next step as a program, UK has to stop giving it away. It is that simple.
*Chris Matthews has lost his starting spot this week because of his play in the Alabama game. The media have mentioned that he ran a couple of bad routes and lined up wrong on several occasions. I saw something else that as a football guy was a much bigger transgression. In the second quarter, Matthews ran a fly pattern down the right sideline, got a half step on the corner and Hartline overthrew him slightly. Chris turned his head and glanced at the safety who was coming over to hit him if he got to the ball. It was very subtle, but I talked to a friend at halftime who saw the same thing. Rather than selling out for the ball, Matthews broke stride and let it fall to the ground. In addition to executing, we have to have some heart and courage to win in the SEC East. Plays like that won't get it done.

*On the same note, I wasn't nearly as disappointed with Hartline's play as others were. His two picks were awful, but they were well after the game was decided. The first quarter was no more his fault than it was mine or yours.

*Looking forward, I've talked on this site about what a brutal four game stretch this would be. The only thing keeping Auburn and South Carolina out of the top 25 right now is that they didn't start higher. USC light is coming off a big win against Ole Miss and between them the teams have one loss (USC@Georgia, in a game it had a chance to win on the last series). Brutal schedule. Taking one of these is looking like a tall order. Still, that is why they line 'em up and play.

*With all this on the horizon, I'd just like to see us play better today. Move the chains some, not commit stupid penalties, make some sure tackles on D. We've been pretty good over the last three years about not throwing in back to back clunkers. Last year we ended the year poorly against Vandy and UT, but I think that was as much about fatigue as anything.

*I am taking my son to the game today. I'm pumped about this. It is the first time just he and I have gone and the first time I think he'll really remember going to the game with me. My Dad started taking me to Alabama games (we lived in Tuscaloosa then) when I was about Ethan's age. I don't remember much other than that Alabama always seemed to win, the crowd was loud, and my favorite player was a white WR named Major Oglivie. But I did love going to those games with my Dad. So there is a nice symmetry to me taking E to the Alabama game today.

* Speaking of my son, I had two thoughts as I watched Tim Tebow lay on the ground last week. The first was, "Am I so sure I want my son to play football?". The second was "If he doesn't get up, I am going be reminded of this moment for the rest of my life." As much as I loved the hit, I completely forgot I was watching a football game and was about as worried as I've ever been for someone I don't actually know in my whole life.

*I am heading down to Columbia with my friends The Todd and Big Z next week, meeting up with my cousin Ap who is coming over from Atlanta. I don't know how the game will turn out but the weekend is going to turn out great.

*We are right for the fight today.