Reality

We'll talk some more tomorrow. For now, lets say this. If we are going to win the two SEC games we need to win in the next three weeks, you, me and the Kentucky coaching staff know what has to happen. It isn't what Rich Brooks or I would have wanted, but here goes. Randall Cobb is your quarterback in November. Period.

University of Louisiana at Monroe Preview

Today the Sunbelt's ULa at Monroe Warhawks come to Commonwealth. You may have heard this already by now, but this is a pretty good football team. The Warhawks are 4-2, their losses coming to Texas (59-20) and Arizona State (38-14). These guys last played 11 days ago, beating Arkansas State 16-10, their only game since October 3rd. Quarterback Trey Revell hurt his hand in that game and reportedly will not play tonight. Revell was having a big year. He will be replaced by a freshman, Cody Wells. The Warhawks will be led by TB Frank Goodin, who averages over 90 yards a game.

Allright, this is taking too long to piece together, and I doubt anyone gives a crap. Here is your preview. This is a losable game. ULa Monroe comes in with a better team than the Middle Tennessee squad that come within a shoestring tackle of beating the Cats last year. Last week's win was awesome but this Cats team is still in a precarious spot. It appears that we will use three different quarterbacks today, which I must admit isn't ideal. Thankfully Derrick Locke's knee improved over the course of the week and will be available.

The Warhawks have had a balanced attack all year (about 200 yards per game on the ground and in the air) but with their QB out will probably rely on the running game. Kentucky had success playing their base 4-3 last week. My guess is they'll stick with this plan and forgo nickel and dime packages. I think ULM will have trouble mounting a lot of offense. With that in mind, the key today is for the Cats to come out focused and have some success of offense early. Beyond that, we need to avoid mistakes, particularly giving up touchdowns on special teams.

Ideally, this is a game that we would win going away. We could give both throwing QBs some work, and possibly get some rest for a few guys (Cobb and Locke come to mind, but it would also be good to get guys like Corey Peters, Ricky Lumkin and some of the O Line a break). Something tells me we will still be biting our nails well into the fourth quarter, though. Still, I feel pretty confident in the end result, if for no other reason than our Defense should own them.

I am in the Blue Lot today starting at about 3:30. Stop by and say hello.

Bowl Projections? Not yet.

There was some clamoring (ok, one request) after the win this weekend for me to start in with the SEC bowl projections and speculation about where UK might go. I am going to hold off at least one more week. After checking the tape, I found that I didn't start until October 26th last year. At that time, UK had five wins and was heading to Starkeville. In an unrelated note, I posted a hell of a lot more last year.

I won't predict today, but here are some general observations:

1. Once again, the SEC seems assured of sending two teams to BCS bowls. This means ten bowl slots are available for our beloved conference. More details on this later, but for now, know that the rough pecking order is BCS(x2),Capital One, (Cotton, Outback), Chick-Fil-A, (Liberty, Music City), Independence, Papajohns.com.

2. Coincidentally, I project that ten SEC teams will be bowl eligible. Vandy and Mississippi State look like they will miss the cut. UK, Arkansas and Tennessee could end up staying home if they don't take care of business, but in each case it is unlikely. Everyone else has a fairly safe ticket. Caveat: Keep one eye on Ole Miss, which is probably stunned at the direction its season has taken and could collapse.

3. This means, unlike last year, 6-6 is probably not going to get the Cats or anyone else above the dreaded Shreveport hole. Six wins is probably a ticket either there or to the Pizza web site Bowl (in Birmingham, a place I actually wouldn't mind going). Last year, the Cats were able to sneak into the Liberty Bowl at 6-6 by virtue of collapses by Auburn, UT, and Arkansas who all finished 5-7. I don't think that will happen again.

4. I enjoyed looking at Chris Low's ESPN.com SEC blog tonight. He has projections for bowls, and also does a good job at calling each team's "best case" and "worst case" for the close of the season. He has us finishing 7-5, along with a host of other SEC teams.

5. At gunpoint, I'd pick Florida to beat Alabama in the SEC championship game, and end up playing for the national title. I think the Tide is a better team, but I'd never bet against Tim Tebow in a game he has to have.

6. More on this weekend's opponent, who we'd better take seriously, later in the week.

7. Anyone have a parking pass that will go to waste Saturday if you don't give it to me?

Top 5 wins of the Brooks era

Saturday's huge win got me thinking about the best wins of the Rich Brooks era and where the game might fall on that list. Over the last few days I've given it some thought. A couple of notes. I think #1 and #2 are set in stone. The rest vary depending on your criteria. There were wins that were big upsets, wins that weren't necessarily unexpected but happened unexpectedly, and wins that were huge at the time but seem smaller in retrospect. Secondly, I began with the reflexive conclusion that every big win of the Brooks era occurred either during or since the 2006 season. I was not wrong. If you don't think we've come very far, take a look at the 2003, 2004 and 2005 wins and losses. We were abysmal.

Without further adieu:
1. October 13, 2007-Kentucky 43, LSU 37 (3OT). Duh. Cats beat the then #1 and eventual national champion Bayou Bengals. A couple of lost facts: Oft maligned Lones Seiber sent the game into the third OT by nailing a 43 yarder. Cats were without Rafael Little and were led in rushing by then freshman Derrick Locke, who had 64 yards and a score.

2. September 15, 2007-Kentucky 40, U of L 34. Best atmosphere at Commonwealth since I've been in Kentucky. Arch rival comes in at #9 in the country, fresh off a 12-1 Orange Bowl winning season. They are thinking national championship. Some could say the win is tainted by Louisville falling into a wormhole, losing to Syracuse the following week, and finishing 6-6. Not me, because I'll never forget the feeling of watching Andre hit a wide open Stevie down the left sideline with less than a minute left.

3. November 4, 2oo6-Kentucky 24, UGA 20. First real judgment call here. This win gets the edge because it ushered in the "New Kentucky" era. The Cats broke a nine game losing streak to the Dogs. Also, Andre Woodson outplayed his Georgia counterpart, a freshman by the name of Matthew Stafford. Stafford threw three picks that afternoon, Tony Dixon scored with a minute left, and the goalposts came down.

4. October 19, 2009- Kentucky 21-Auburn 14. Best road win of the Brooks era. Still too recent to put into proper perspective. To say the chips were down for the Cats going into last Saturday is an understatement. To say we played about as well as we could have possibly played that evening is about right. Incredible night.

5. December 29, 2006-Kentucky 28, Clemson 20 (Music City Bowl). Subsequent bowl trips have been less climactic due to all the suspensions for Florida State in 2007 and the Conference USA opponent in 2008. But the first Music City Bowl win was impactful. I walked into that game with a "just happy to be here" vibe and was surprised to win. This game gave the players confidence and helped put the program in the position its in now.

Honorable mention: UK 21-Ark 20 (Hartline 2 TD to Cobb in last five minutes 2008); UK 42-Ark 29 (at Arkansas 2007, we rose to #8 after this win); UK 25-East Carolina 19 (fun, fun, fun comeback in Memphis in 2008).

Discuss.

Is Rich Brooks reading UK Football Fan?

Of course not, but this bears mention. If I were a better writer and didn't waste so many words, we'd have said the same thing.

Here was my post this morning as it related to Will Fidler:

Sometimes things don't go your way as an athlete. Hearing that he wasn't starting this game had to be crushing for Will. As a fourth year senior, his chance had finally come, until he learned that his freshman teammate who had never thrown a college pass was taking what I'm sure he thought was a spot he'd earned. Will kept his head up and delivered when he was called upon. I feel great for him.


As reported by John Clay, here was what Rich Brooks said about Will at today's press luncheon:

“I couldn’t be proud of Will Fidler if he were my own son. It hasn’t gone his way, so to speak. But he’s come out every day and competes and works to get it done. . . . Last week was the ultimate slap in the face for him when we elected to start the freshman quarterback and he handled it well.”

While we are here, I cannot imagine a higher compliment to get from your head coach.

Saturday Review-Look ahead

How about that? Yesterday, I said the Cats would need to play a near perfect game to win, and I was about right. I cannot remember a game where a team did not commit a penalty. Add to that some great D, tremendous running and run blocking, and just enough passing game to keep Auburn's defense honest, and you have a huge SEC road win, a potential season altering momentum swing, and one of the five or six best wins of the Rich Brooks era.


There is a lot to go over and a lot of love to spread around. I'll start with Will Fidler. Sometimes things don't go your way as an athlete. Hearing that he wasn't starting this game had to be crushing for Will. As a fourth year senior, his chance had finally come, until he learned that his freshman teammate who had never thrown a college pass was taking what I'm sure he thought was a spot he'd earned. Will kept his head up and delivered when he was called upon. I feel great for him.



As I said before the game Randall Cobb and Derrick Locke are All-SEC talents. The world is about to know it soon. I think Cobb is a four year player here, and I think when he is done he goes down as one of the best to ever wear Blue and White.



The Offensive line is the most underrated aspect of the team. We've run successfully against nearly every team on the schedule. That is because of these guys. Between the legs of Cobb and Locke, and the holes the line is opening up, this team has found its identity.



Obviously the defense played well, with Warford back the secondary was much improved. Yesterday belonged to the linebackers, particularly OLB's Danny Travathan and Sam Maxwell, who joined Micah as leading tacklers this week.



Finally, I cannot say enough about the special teams. Steve Ortmeyer has them rounding into fine form. We had one field goal attempt that was not blocked and run back for a touchdown, and for the first straight week, all of the Cat's punts went for at least double digit yards.



Okay, so it isn't all gushing. While I am picking nits, Winston Guy needs to stop headhunting and start hitting and wrapping. One, he is going to hurt himself or someone else, and two, he is missing sure tackles while trying to create highlights.



Anyway, this is one hell of a win. When you consider how badly the deck was stacked against them, the Cats really did have what ESPN.com's SEC blogger termed the "gutsiest win in the SEC this year".



In the context of the whole season, this is a very good thing. If you'd asked me point blank before the season started, I would have been very happy with 3-3 at this point. Looking back at my preseason predictions, I did have UK winning this game. But I didn't know then that Auburn would be 5-1 and only one week removed from being #17 in the country then. In fact, I did not have Auburn going to a bowl in the preseason.



We line up with what looks like four straight winnable games. This weekend, I hope, will not be a toe stub. The Cats need to move the chains, put some points on the board, and tear the hearts out of ULA-Monroe early.


Next comes an intriguing matchup against a pretty fair Mississippi State team. New coach Dan Mullins has these guys playing ball. The Bulldogs came within a foot of beating LSU and were tied with Houston going into the fourth quarter last week. They have manhandled Vandy and taken care of non conference opponents thus far. Don't forget it was Mississippi State that came into Commonwealth in 2007 and stunned the best UK team this decade 31-14, ruining our chance at a special season. I'd like to see this game played at night. We'll find that out tomorrow. This should be the toughest of the four games, and assuming nothing goes haywire next week, we are probably 3-4 point favorites.



EKU should provide a safe win and pave the way for a November 14th roadie at Vandy. I expected this to be a big game, but the 'Dores are reeling at 2-5, and have South Carolina, Georgia Tech and Florida over the next three weeks. Bowl eligibility will probably be out the window, but the chance to play spoiler for a team that has spoiled a lot of its seasons will not be. On the other hand, Vandy may have thrown in the towel by then. We won't know that until we get down there, so I wouldn't take it lightly.

More to come this week. It is starting to get interesting.

Uk at Auburn

Certainly, today is a more mellow Saturday in UK Football Fan land. My string of attending every game of the year draws to a close today. I'll be watching the game from the comfort of my in-laws living room. This should be one of the more intriguing contests of recent vintage. Morgan Newton is the most highly regarded Quarterback we've recruited since Tim Couch. Though the circumstances that brought this about are the best, I think many Cats fans are anxious to see what we have. Unfortunately, whoever is playing QB tonight has his work cut out for him. Make no mistake, the Cats will have to catch lightening in a bottle to win. A number of things need to go right.

1. Effective quarterback play. We don't need to throw for 300 yards, but we'll need enough of a passing game to keep Auburn from loading up the box with 8-9 guys every play.

2. Improved play on special teams. This is becoming a real sticking point for me, because I think the situation has a simple fix. Steve Ortmeyer has to get these kids to play better for him. If Auburn starts every drive at the 50, it will be a long night.

3. Look for the ball. Our young corners did a good job of sticking to their men last week. The reason they were torched was not turning around and giving themselves a chance to make a play on the ball. Chris Todd is very comparable to USC's Stephen Garcia. He is more than capable of exploiting us.

4. Locke and Cobb. These guys have All-SEC talent. One or both really needs to get down for us to win.

5. Turnover battle. Cats won this 2-0 last week, which is the only reason were were still in it to the end.

6. Big play. In a closely related point, the Cats need a huge play on defense to compensate for what should be a rather difficult game on O. Without Trevard, it is hard to tell who this might come from.

If all of these things happen, we win, but I pretty much think we will need them all. As I said, lightning in a bottle. Good luck to Fidler, Newton, or both.

Hartline post

Today comes the news that Mike Hartline is out for several weeks, if not the season, with a torn MCL, partially torn PCL and cartilage damage. The Kentucky quarterback drama has played out in an almost Shakespearean fashion. Fans have called for Hartline to be replaced for most of his career. I myself said last Friday that Brooks should give someone else time in the USC game if Hartline was laying an egg.

Of course, we know that isn't what happened. Hartline was playing the game of his life when fate intervened, his knee bent grotesquely underneath him on a play that should have been blown dead before it developed. Though not in the way any sane person had hoped for, many would get their wish that someone else would be playing quarterback for Kentucky by game's end.

Side note here: Corey Peters was quoted in the paper Sunday as saying that the fans had gotten what they'd wanted, which I read to mean that they wanted Hartline injured. I think that is a load of crap, and Brooks should not let his players blast the fans in the media like this. Unlike Tennessee fans and their boy Jonathan Crompton, I've never heard one person suggest he or she wanted to see Hartline hurt. He is a good kid who has done nothing but work hard. Wanting to see him replaced is a far cry from wishing for this.

So, if not Shakespeare, it is at least a Twilight Zone episode. An Alanis Morisette, if not textbook definition, version of irony. Karma for the fans. Call it what you will. I think it sucks, because even as someone who did not have a ton of confidence in Hartline, I knew that if Fidler or someone else went in and played poorly, the coaches could chalk it up as a failed experiment and put Hartline back in. That cannot happen now. Plus, I feel horrible for Hartline, a kid who has already had to put up with more than any recent Kentucky athlete not named Saul Smith.

So, what to do? Brooks has said, and I totally agree with him, that he is not going to go with Randall Cobb as a full-time QB. Too much is invested in the downfield passing offense, and Cobb is too valuable in his other roles. What do I think the staff should do? Drumroll . . . . .

I don't have the foggiest idea. And you know why? Because I have never seen Morgan Newton throw a pass except on ESPNU against a high school team, and unless someone surprising is reading this blog, neither have you. People have been calling for him all year, but the truth is, we have no idea how ready he is to play because we aren't at the practices. I trust this coaching staff to make the right decision about who is best to put on the field. My hope is, however, that they are willing to be flexible.

That is because another dynamic is at work here. I never played college football, but I've been on dozens of sports teams in every other imaginable level and something always rings true. While one can predict game success by how a player practices, it is never a certainty. Players disappoint and surprise daily.

The guess here is that Will Fidler starts under center Saturday. The staff won't want to put the pressure of a roadie against a stinging Auburn squad on a true freshman. If we are losing badly and Fidler struggles, the redshirt will come off and Newton finishes the game, then is your starter in what should be a confidence building turn against Louisiana Monroe. Cobb will have an expanded role at QB, and may take as many as half of the snaps, but the game will not get turned over to him completely unless both the other guys are abysmal.`

Unless Fidler can be successful, there is little to lose by playing Newton. Either he proves himself and competes for a job through the end of the year and into next year, or he is not near the quarterback Hartline is and redshirts next year while Hartline starts as a senior.

Like everything else with UK Football, though, it is never easy.

USC

Needless to say, today is a day to play the old "iffin" game.

*If we were healthy at corner.
*If we had the ability to defend a kickoff return.
*If Cobb had played the whole second half at QB.
*If we had a team that did not commit silly penalties in clutch situations.
*If we had gone out of the Wildcat on the two point conversion.
*If we hadn't dropped two sure touchdown catches.

There was so much more today. Nothing more important than the cruel godsmack layed down by Kentucky fans. We don't want Mike Hartline as our QB, huh? Well how about we get to watch him play the best half of football in his career, then go down to a season ending (yes, I said it) injury. We wanted a new solution? Well, now we'll have to come up with one. It may not be what we'd all hoped for.

One thing that bears mention? Hartline was hurt on a play that should have been blown dead before it happened. Either too much time or false start (I cannot remember which) on us. The ball should have never been snapped due to a whistle. Why the whole thing was allowed to develop is beyond me.

Finally, Kentucky is lucky to have Randall Cobb in our uniform. It is that simple. There are better football players. Many are bigger. Many are faster. Some have more gaudy stats. Many will go higher in the draft and have more accolades. But you'd be hard pressed to find a player in the country who is more important to his team. It is Tebow'esque. Don't believe me? We'll debate it, because now is not the time to spell it out.

Once again, against this team we played well enough to win. Again, we did not. Next week presents us another chance against a now more vulnerable looking Auburn.

Guys Trip

Since the whole point of this site is to catch the UK Football experience through the viewpoint of a fan, I guess a word or three is due on my trip to Columbia this weekend to see the Cats take on the Cocks. Last year, I read a book by a young, southern lawyer who took a fall season and attended a game in every SEC venue, some while following his beloved Tennessee Vols, others out of necessity just to finish the trip. Having only ever gone to Vandy to see a road game (and attended Alabama games in Tuscaloosa as a child) I decided the least I could was to duplicate the trip, albeit over the next ten years. The trip to Columbia is the first in what will hopefully be a long line of fun jaunts.

This weekend I am travelling with the boys. As it turns out, two great law school friends (Big Z and Todd) are coming with me from KY and my cousin, Ap (or with apologies to Tucker Max TheCousin) is meeting up with us from Atlanta, where the Danville native is doing some sort of complicated radiology fellowship. Todd and Dave are two of my best (and funniest) friends, and Ap is the brother I never had. So there is almost no way I have a bad time.

Unlike my usual bowl plans, I have very little in the can for this trip. Well, not exactly true. I was able to get killer hotel rooms nine months out. The Courtyard by Marriott Downtown for $115 a night. Two miles from the stadium, right off campus, and very close to the Columbia bar and restaurant scene. Visitors tickets in the lower level courtesy of the asking based on my season tickets at UK and a simple request in July. All in all a good deal. I think that we will try to tailgate tomorrow with a group of UK alumni from "SC Upstate", which Todd learned about today from checking on the plain ole UK alumni web site. Good shit.

Beyond that, though, no restaurant reservations or any other plans for where to be when.

And yes, there is a football game to be played. Vegas has decided that USC is a good team and that we are not. It is USC -9 1/2. That is a chump line, in my opinion. Even with our two starting corners out, this game could go either way. No one really knows how good or bad UK is. We got the dropsys and made the UofL game close. Other than that, we've lost to two vastly superior teams and beaten an over matched one. S Carolina is proven, but it could play well or poorly, depending on the day. They are a clear step down from our last two opponents. There is no reason why UK cannot compete in this game.

That said, Mike Hartline needs to have a decent game tomorrow. If he looks awful, the Cats are justified in trying someone else at QB against Auburn, and giving that person a lot more time against ULA-Monroe the following week if he is successful. I am saying they are justified, I am not saying that it will actually happen. It won't.

Last year I woke up the morning of the UK-USC game and knew that Captain Munnerlyn was going to kill us. I was right, but it wasn't some grand prophecy. It was because he had killed us for his whole career. Munnerlyn is gone, but Eric Norwood is still very much a Cock. I'd fear #40 all day tomorrow. Let's hope for the best, and know that either way, it will be a good weekend for UK Football Fan.