Rough Weekend

As I'm sure many of you noticed, I basically quit posting at about the ninth week of the season, with little more than SEC bowl related posts through the end of the year. There are were several reasons for this; increased use of Twitter/Facebook to post shorter updates, plans to close the site down after the season anyway and a general lack of hits and links. But the most compelling reason is that I've lost faith in the staff and the administration and their ability to give us a product worth writing about in the short and long term. This year's team was incredibly frustrating to watch. The problems I observe seem to be systematic rather than simply relating to individual players.

This weekend didn't do anything to make me feel better. As everyone reading this now knows, fifth year senior Mike Hartline pissed the last game of his career away in a fit of drunken belligerence. Joker's swift justice would indicate that he lent some credence to the allegations involving violence. I feel terrible for Hartline, whose star crossed career deserves its own post. Right now however, I feel worse for Joker, who is losing his grip on the reins of the Wildcat sled.

This week Joker let two assistants go and announced that he'd be bringing in a co-defensive coordinator to work alongside Steve Brown. The latter sounded like a way of pushing Brown out the door politely. I certainly hope so. If UK really told candidates it wanted someone to work alongside someone whose unit completely failed this year, they cut themselves off right at the knees.

Saturday hit, and word came via Twitter that Rick Minter and Steve Pardue (we'll get to them in a minute) were at practice in UK gear. We had apparently filled our two vacancies. At the same time Chip Cosby, Matt May and Brett Dawson were tweeting about the Minter/Pardue sightings, Larry Vaught (who was not at practice) was reporting that recently fired but highly respected former Miami Head Coach would come to UK as the DC. Though Shannon was reportedly contacted early in the week, it sounded to me like fan base appeasement. Truth is, Shannon was likely to land on his feet with a near million dollar gig and clearly UK isn't going to pay that for a coordinator. That this was actually going to happen was huge, and a sign that Joker had more juice than perhaps we realized.

This being Kentucky, Vaught later tweeted that his sources were wrong and that Minter (who is currently the linebacker's coach at Indiana State) would indeed become the DC. This news was bad enough, but it was only the tip of the bitter cold iceberg.

Urban Favre's mid-week decision to quit at Florida for the second year in a row provided good theatre for Cats fans. I was thrilled to have that evil bastard out of the SEC East, don't get me wrong. But I was giddy about the prospect Meyer would be replaced by the coach of one of UK perennial opponents. Louisville's Charlie Strong seemed like a possibility. Mississippi State's Dan Mullen, however, seemed like the logical choice. Louavull and MSU aren't just perennial opponents, they are swing opponents. Along with Vanderbilt (we'll get to them in a minute) and South Carolina, they form the set of schools we need to beat consistently if we ever want to get to "the next level". I'd love for Mississippi State or Louisville to lose their coach and have to start over.

On Saturday, the Gators got their man in Texas Defensive Coordinator and former Coach-in-waiting Will Muschamp. Many are questioning the hire. Not me. Muschamp is young, incredibly passionate and has an impeccable coaching pedigree. He is likely to bring in Major Applewhite as his OC. They'll outwork everyone on the field, own every living room and Florida will continue to be Florida. Mullen and Strong, evidently, will stay put. I'd guess that Mullen was induced to stay by more money and promises from MSU to continue to invest in their program. Not good news for the Cats, whose administration would not have done the same thing if Joker had been the hot commodity. Maybe I'm wrong about that, but we don't know because no one has tried to steal UK's Head Coach for a better job since Christ was a corporal.

Remember now, this all went down in one day. Rumor has it now that Shannon will replace Muschamp as the DC at Texas. Whether that happens remains to be seen. Right now all I see is speculation. But here is some more speculation. It is entirely possible that Shannon was ready to come to Kentucky as its coordinator but backed out when it became clear that Texas had the same vacancy. One could hardly blame Shannon, it is a much better job. Still, the thought that it might have gone down that way stings. How much better off would we be if Mullen bolted Mississippi State for Florida, and we had a DC who could recruit Florida like almost nobody else in college football?

Today added further insult to injury as some outlets are reporting that Vandy has hired Auburn Offensive Coordinator Gus Malzahn as its head guy (reports conflict as some say it isn't a done deal). I'm not as worried about Malzahn as I am what his hire represents. (After all, coaching genius and having Cam Newton running your offense can be easily confused). Vandy supposedly broke the bank and will pay Gus $3million per. If it is willing to pay that, and Malzahn is willing to come, it obviously intends to upgrade its program substantially. Keep in mind this is high tier SEC money, almost twice Joker's salary. Today ESPN's David Pollock observed via Twitter that while Malzahn will "succeed", success at Vandy is 2-3 SEC wins a year and a bowl trip. Great point. Here is another one: if Vandy can consistently win 2-3 SEC games a year, many of those wins are going to be against you know who.

All of which leads me to one conclusion. While the rest of the SEC is moving forward, we are standing still, at best. Rick Minter was indeed the linebacker coach at Indiana State this year. In fairness, has has also been a defensive coordinator at Notre Dame and South Carolina, as well as the head guy at Cincinnati for several years. He is I'm sure a fine coach. He is also a retread who is being rescued from the downside of a career. I know nothing about Pardue, other than that he was the head coach of UK feeder high school LaGrange (Ga.) for a number of years. He was probably due this shot with us.

Perhaps I'm making too big a deal out of a series of things that were almost completely outside of UK's control. But the truth is that this weekend leaves me feeling the way I often feel about UK Football. Even though we seem only inches away at times, they are inches we are destined never to get.

Final SEC Bowl Projections

Here are my final SEC Bowl projections, based in part on Twitter and Internet chatter I gathered yesterday but without consultation with anyone else's final picks. Apparently, the Outback Bowl is going all mercenary and will disappointingly go with a crumbling Florida squad over at least 2 more qualified teams. This sends South Carolina (who deserved a better fate) to the Chick-Fil-A Bowl. The buzz is that the Gator will take 6-6 but surging UT in what can only be described as a New Year's Day gift. The big loser is Mississippi State, which will be rewarded for its best season in recent memory by a mundane trip to the Music City Bowl. If that rodgering doesn't send Dan Mullen into Miami's waiting arms, I don't know what will.
The other big loser in that scenario is our Cats and their beleaguered fanbase, who must now live with the knowledge that a win over a pitiful Tennessee squad probably would have put them in Florida (albeit Jacksonville) on New Year's Day. As it is, there will be no change in the Cats' destination.

National Championship
Auburn v. Oregon

Sugar
Arkansas v. Ohio State

Capital One
Alabama v. Michigan State

Cotton
LSU v. Texas A&M

Outback
Florida v. Michigan

Chick-Fil-A
USC v. Florida State

Gator
UT v. Iowa

Music City
Mississippi State v. North Carolina

Liberty
Georgia v. UCF

BBVA Compass
UK v. South Florida

Quick Preview

Today isn't about the Tennessee Volunteers. It is about Joker Phillips and the Kentucky Wildcats. If the Cats come ready to play and put together 60 minutes of decent football, they win and end the streak. They don't need to play perfectly, or even great, for the entire game. But they have to show up when the bell rings and avoid first half disaster. It is that cut and dried.

Sounds easy enough, but as Lee Corso might say, "Not so fast, my friend". Truth is, through 11 games of the Phillips era the Cats have proven totally incapable of showing up to play. And the more important the game, the less ready to play they've been. It isn't just missed tackles, no pass rush and fumbles. It is blown assignments, false starts and not getting lined up correctly. In short, it are things that relate to effort and discipline. Which means they relate to coaching.

Kentucky exercised some demons with a huge (and quite fortunate) win over South Carolina. We could exercise a lot more today. This season could still end with four straight wins, two big streaks ending, and another nice bowl trophy. But if we don't win today, one big takeaway from 2010 will be my fear that Joker Phillips teams don't answer the bell.

Play hard and smart for 60 minutes. Win. Don't, and we'll be waiting at least another year.

Nov. 21 Pundits Projections

This past weekend in college football was weird because a lot of interesting things almost happened, but none did. LSU, Ohio State and Michigan State almost played themselves out of BCS contention, but didn't. Ole Miss almost got into the bowl conversation, but didn't. Mississippi State almost layed claim to a special season, but didn't. UCLA almost showed up to play, but didn't. The list goes on. Anyway, as of this morning, here is where The People Who Do This For A Living believe the Cats are going bowling, along with brief tidbits about how they got us there:

ESPN.COM Andrea Adelson
Liberty Bowl v. UCF (Adelson apparently believes that we will lose to UT and still make the Liberty. She has Georgia in the Birmingham Bowl and UT going to the MAACO bowl in Las Vegas. Adelson has Oregon v. Boise St. in the National Championship and has only one SEC team in the BCS)

ESPN.COM Mark Schlabach
Birmingham Bowl v. South Florida (As with his collegue, Schlabach predicts a UK loss, and has UT and Georgia both ahead of us in the pecking order. Schlabach has Auburn in the National Championship and LSU in the Sugar, leaving an SEC spot for the Cats)

ESPN.COM Chris Low
Little Caesar's Pizza Bowl v. MAC team (The WWL's outstanding SEC blogger has UK losing to UT and falling out of the SEC bowl picture entirely. Low projects Alabama beating Auburn and only one SEC team in the BCS)

CFN Scout
Birmingham Bowl v. Syracuse (Again, CFN gives UT the win and a better bowl, places Georgia in the Liberty and preserves the bottom SEC rung for UK by virtue of projecting 2 SEC schools into the BCS. Going against the grain, CFN has Auburn in the National Championship, and what would apparently be a 3 loss Alabama team in the Sugar)

SI.Com Stewart Mandel
Music City Bowl v. North Carolina (Mandel bucks conventional wisdom and has UK beating UT. He also puts Auburn in NCG and LSU in Sugar. As a consequence, he does not have the SEC even filling its slots).

MSNBC John Temanaha
Birmingham v. South Florida (John's picks are a little wild. He has Auburn tumbling to both Alabama and South Carolina, sending USC to the Sugar. He then places LSU in the Orange above TCU, making him the only pundit to believe that the SEC will get 2 in the BCS without Auburn making the National Championship.)

Week 12 SEC Bowl Projections

SEC bowl slotting continues to hinge largely on whether the conference gets 2 teams into BCS Bowls. As I've mentioned in previous posts, if Auburn wins the Iron Bowl the SEC will almost assuredly get 2 in. If Alabama wins, it most likely will not. With that in mind, I'll run 2 sets of projections. These picks are predicated on Georgia beating Georgia Tech, Mississippi failing to gain bowl eligibility and Tennessee doing so by winning out, including defeating UK.

Important: (If you are reading this later, this was posted before any results of the November 20th games)

Auburn wins:

National Championship
Auburn

Sugar
LSU

Capital One
Alabama

Cotton
Arkansas

Ouback
South Carolina

Chick-Fil-A
Mississippi State

Gator
Florida

Music City
Tennessee

Liberty
Kentucky

Birmingham
Georgia


Auburn loses to Alabama

Sugar
Auburn

Capital One
LSU

Cotton
Alabama

Outback
Arkansas

Chick-Fil-A
South Carolina

Gator
Florida

Music City
Tennessee

Liberty
Mississippi State

Birmingham
Georgia

Maaco-Las Vegas Dec 22, 8pm (replaces PAC-10 team)
UK

Discuss.

UK Bowl Projection Contingencies

The Cats secured bowl eligibility with a shaky but ultimately satisfying win over Vandy on Saturday. There is an awful lot of uncertainty still about where the Cats may land. With USC winning over Florida, there is now no chance that the Cats land above the Tennessee tier of bowls. With UT winning easily over Ole Miss, and apparently finding its savior on Quarterback Tyler Bray, they are now a sexy pick to win out (@Vandy, UK) and gain bowl eligibility.

Assuming that is how it plays out, that would leave the SEC with three 6-6 teams (assuming Georgia can beat Georgia Tech at home on 11/27). Presumably, these three teams would fill the final 3 bowl spots in Nashville, Memphis and Birmingham. Unless the SEC only gets one team in the BCS, in which case there will only be two bowls for these three schools to go to.

In other words, UK is bowl eligible, but it is not guaranteed to go to a bowl. There are and endless number of "outs" though, that make a bowl trip a near certainty. Here are all the things that could happen, any one of which would land UK in a bowl:

1. Beating Tennessee. This is the easy one. This puts us at 7-5, knocks UT out, and puts us in either the Liberty or Music City.

2. Vandy beats UT at home. LSU takes care of business against Ole Miss. This guarantees there are enough spots for the Cats whether we beat UT or not. Frankly, I do not see Vandy pulling this off. They are truly awful.

3. Auburn beats Alabama and LSU wins out. Assuming Auburn beats Alabama, it is a lock for a BCS bowl (barring #5 below). If it goes to the National Championship, a one loss LSU is a lock for the Sugar.

4. Auburn beats Alabama, loses SEC Championship. This puts USC in the Sugar but makes a one loss Auburn almost a sure bet for another BCS bowl.

5. Cam Newton declared ineligible before SEC Championship game. If Auburn forfeits all of its wins, everyone moves up a notch.

6. Georgia loses to Georgia Tech on 11/27. The Dogs would sit at 5-7 and could not go to a bowl.

7. UK gets invited to a bowl ahead of UT or Georgia. I'd say this one is a total crapshoot. If UT beats UK, it will have a better league record and will be riding a three game streak on the back of a new QB. UT has not had a disappointing season when you get down to it. They were supposed to be god awful. Georgia is Georgia, and would seem to be a much better pull. If the Birmingham Bowl had to choose between us, well, Birmingham is close to practically all of Georgia. As little as Cats fans would want of U of L rematch in this game, the possibility of putting that game together in Birmingham might save the Cats' skin if none of these other contingencies work out.

8. Cats are invited to a bowl game outside the SEC chain. Every year there are conferences that cannot fill their bowl allotments. When this happens, bowls must fill slots with either a conference with which is has an existing agreement, then must take any 7 team, then may take a 6 win team. You are truly looking at scraps at this point. . . . .unless. . . .unless, Kentucky can take the Pac-1o's spot in the MAACO Bowl in Las Vegas on December 22. They are practically giving hotel rooms away in Vegas that week and you can get there from SDF pretty darned reasonably. However, if it plays out this way, my guess is you'll be much more likely to see UK taking on a MAC team in the Little Caesar's Pizza Bowl in Detroit on December 26th.

As UK Football Fans know, it is a cruel, cruel world.

More on the pundits' predictions and my actual projections in separate posts.

This is it.

Quick post.
* This is a must win game for Joker. Vandy is weak, depleated and isn't playing for anything. It is our senior day and we are playing for a bowl berth. If the Cats cannot secure this victory it will be one of the worst losses in Commonwealth imaginable.

*If there is any justice in the world, Commonwealth will give Mike Hartline a send-off for the ages today. He has earned it.

*The thought that this might be Randall Cobb's last home game makes me physically ill. I wasn't expecting this to be an issue, which in retrospect was pretty naive.

*DeQuin Evans deserves to have a good game. I thought Trevard Lindley had a tough senior year. DeQuin's makes Trevard's look like a Heisman campaign.

*I'm glad that Derrick Locke is going to be able to go on senior day, but outside of actually winning the game, the next most important thing from a tactical standpoint would be for us to get through today without him being reinjured.

*Trying breakfast burritos in my Orange lot tailgate this morning. If I can avoid poisoning my family, it should be a good day. My friend Lee said it. There is zero reason to lose this game. Zero.

Last Game For Cobb?

The internet is abuzz today with conjecture that this coming Saturday will be Randall Cobb's last game at Commonwealth. Selfishly, I hope that isn't true. But the truth is, I have no idea whether leaving is a good idea for Cobb or not. Here is what I do know:

1. Cobb has nothing left to prove as a college player. At least from a pro scout perspective, Cobb has done about all he can do on the field to show he can play football. Elusiveness, balance, smarts, toughness and big play ability. It has all been on display. If you had to pick nits, I suppose you could say that he could return and show he is a little more surehanded. But you might as well be looking for flaws on Jennifer Anniston.

2. Cobb is a certain type of player, and another year of college will not change that. At 5'10" 190 without game breaking speed, Cobb will make his way in the NFL as a slot receiver and probably punt returner. He isn't a prototypical #1 guy, but I would not put it past him to have Wes Welker or Hines Ward's career. I'd take that, wouldn't you? He isn't going to get faster or appreciably bigger in the intervening year, so the die is pretty well cast as far as his upside.

3. The decisions of others may dictate whether Cobb leaves this year. AJ Green and Julio Jones will almost assuredly leave this year and will probably be the first two recevers drafted when they do leave. Cobb may also want to know what some other top flight guys such as Notre Dame's Michael Floyd and Oklahoma's Ryan Broyles will do. All are juniors, and if many go, Cobb might improve his stock by waiting a year. This year's sophomore class isn't nearly as stacked. On the other hand, if a lot of the other juniors will stay put, it might be time to boogie.

4. Cobb has compelling reasons to return. The twitter fit notwithstanding, Cobb seems to recognize his place in the hearts of the Big Blue Nation and at least based on his Tweets seems to enjoy college and is happy here. He is arguably the best player in program history. If he returns for his senior season and produces consistently, it erases all doubt. How many people can say that they are the best football player in the history of an SEC school? Those guys have names like Manning, Walker and Jackson. That is a club to aspire to.
There is also the matter of Cobb obtaining a degree. This isn't basketball. A pro football player, especially a non-star, has a week to week existence. The average career lasts fewer than three years and no part of a salary except a signing bonus is guaranteed. Also, football offers many more coaching opportunities for former players than do other sports. A degree is a necessity for a college assistant.

5. Cobb has compelling reasons not to return. Randall has given his heart and soul to the program for three years. Though UK has seemed close to turning the corner a couple of times, it hasn't quite happened. It could happen next year, but there is no particular reason to believe it will. Cobb is probably looking at another 7-5 or 6-6 season ending with a bowl he has already played in for his senior year. He has taken an incredible amount of punishment. At his size, he only has a certain number of hits left in his body. Every one he takes next year is one he isn't getting paid for. Also, it would appear that every Cat who has had the chance to leave early and returned has fallen in the process. After seeing Trevard fall out of the first round and Micah go completely undrafted, could anyone blame Cobb for striking while the iron is hot.

6. This decision might be best made by consulting a stopwatch. The knock on Cobb has always been a lack of top end speed. I've never seen him caught from behind. He looks plenty fast to me. But what do I know. Cobb reportedly ran a 4.43 forty at last year's UK Pro Day. If he has those wheels in the combine (and this includes the bar of injury) he is safely in the middle rounds of the draft (maybe as high as a late 2) and safely making an NFL team. No matter when he leaves. On the other hand, if he is more in the range of 4.60-4.65, I could see him falling and things get dicey. If the latter is the case, Cobb would be wise to come back, get his degree, and try to collect a couple more SEC scalps.

7. I'll be very sad if Randall Cobb is not playing football at Kentucky next year.

8. But I will not blame him one bit.

Updated Bowl Projections

All in all, this weekend's games did have somewhat of an impact on the SEC bowl picture. LSU's defeat of Alabama takes the latter out of national championship picture. Though the Bayou Bengals could be in line for a Sugar Bowl birth, it is unlikely that they can get to the National Championship game themselves. With TCU tearing #5 Utah apart yesterday and Alabama losing again, a one loss SEC team probably can't do it.

SEC fans should be hoping for Auburn and LSU to win out. In that scenario, Auburn would obviously play for the national title and LSU would almost certainly be snapped up by the Sugar Bowl. Even if Auburn were to lose in the SEC Championship after winning out in the regular season, the SEC should still get 2 in the BCS. At that point the SEC East team would go to the Sugar (it is an automatic bid), and Auburn 12-1 with the Heisman Trophy winner on its roster would probably still get an At-large BCS bid.

Things could get dicey, though, if Auburn loses to Alabama but then goes on to win the SEC Championship. Then Auburn is Sugar Bowl bound and LSU or Alabama would be fighting for BCS scraps. Boise State and TCU are virtual locks, which leaves only 2 At-large BCS spots. The Big 10 has a trio of one loss teams, Ohio State, Michigan State and Wisconsin. The PAC-10 has Stanford, which would be a natural substitute pick for the Rose Bowl if Oregon goes to the National Championship.

If you want to get all starry eyed, I guess you could argue that South Carolina's loss to Arkansas puts the Gamecocks back in the Cats crosshairs. There is still a good chance that USC falls to 7-5 and would no longer be a clear better choice. In that scenario, assuming 2 in the BCS, my current projection would be:

Auburn and LSU-BCS
Alabama-Capital One
Arkansas-Cotton
Florida-Outback
Mississippi State-Chick-Fil-A

The Gator would then be choosing between 7-5 Kentucky and a 7-5 South Carolina. Under this scenario, we would have ended the season with 3 straight wins, including a historical victory over UT. USC would have lost 3 of its last 4 and basically have free fallen once again after another great start. Bad news: Geography. Columbia is a lot closer to Jacksonville than Lexington. Parts of South Carolina are only about 3 hours away by car. Worse news: This assumes Kentucky can win out, which is far from a given at this point.

As I mentioned last week, Mississippi State could still lose out an fall to 7-5. At this point, I think it is more likely that USC will lose to Florida and Clemson, making them a better leapfrog possibility.

The point has been made several times that the Liberty Bowl and the UK-U of L Football game are at the same time on December 31st. Truth be told, I have no earthly clue how that will impact the process.

You'll note that I changed things up a bit this week. And if you are looking at this critically, you'll see that yes, there is a chance that UK could get to 6-6 and still be shut out of the SEC bowls.


Without further adieu:

National Championship
Auburn

Sugar
LSU

Capital One
Alabama

Cotton
Arkansas

Outback
Florida/USC winner

Chick-Fil-A
Mississippi State

Gator
Florida/USC loser

Music City
Tennessee

Liberty
Georgia

Birmingham Bowl
Kentucky

Reality Bites

If Kentucky plays the last two games of the season the way it played yesterday, it will finish 5-7 and Joker Phillips seat will rightfully be scortching hot in 2011.