Goof

Something I said earlier this week is inaccurate. As hotly anticipated as this Saturday's game is, it in not the biggest of the Rich Brooks era. Not even close. On October 20, 2007 the defending champion Florida Gators came to Commonwealth at 5-2 and ranked #15 in the nation. Ordinarily, this would be cause for alarm. But walking into the stadium that day, UK was 6-1 and ranked #7, fresh off a win over then #1 LSU. Gameday was broadcast from Lexington that morning, something I thought I'd never see in my lifetime.

There was a lot at stake. In the week leading up to this game, I began to wonder if the Cats could win the SEC East, go to a BCS bowl, maybe, just maybe win out and head to the national championship game. We all did. It all seemed possible. Of course, it was not to be. Tebow and Woodson put on a dual for the ages. The Cats stayed close, but ultimately fell 45-37. The following week, the Cats were embarrassed by a puzzling blowout loss to Mississippi State, and any hopes of a dream year were dashed. I still think if we'd have pulled this game out, the MSU thing would not have happened, and we might have had a shot at the SEC East crown. As it is, UT finished 5-3 in the conference, went to the SEC Championship, and was within a late Eric Ainge pick of beating LSU and going to the Sugar Bowl. It certainly could have been us.

Anyway, we are playing for a lot this weekend, but not quite as much as we were then. Go Cats.

SEC PREVIEWS

This is going to be a great weekend in SEC Football. I wish the games were more spread out, and that at least one was being played today, but oh well. Nearly every game could have some ramifications for the Cats' bowl prospects. Here are some quick notes.

Friday 2:30 PM

Alabama at Auburn

There will be a lot of eyes on this game Friday looking for an upset. Teams like Cincinnati, TCU and Boise can hold out hope that the Tide don't get it done in their rivalry game, then turn around and beat Florida in the SEC Championship next week. How about the possibility that no SEC team plays in the national championship. It has to start with Chris Todd and the Tiger offense. Alabama has been rock solid on both sides of the ball all year. Their offense is going to generate points. If Auburn cannot answer the bell on O, this won't be competitive. As a Cats fan, you want to see Alabama win for two reasons. First, is the outside possibility that the Tide could lose to Auburn and Florida and somehow get left out of the BCS. Less remotely, a win give Auburn an 8-4 season, which could help them leapfrog the Cats, especially with a loss to Tennessee.

Saturday

Noon

Clemson at South Carolina

Everyone is writing off the Gamecocks for dead. It seems like year after year this team gets off to a hot start, then fades. True, they are on a three game skid, and have lost four of five since stealing one from our Cats. But they haven't exactly played patsies. The recent losses were at Tennessee and Arkansas, and home against Florida. Clemson is ranked #18 and red hot. Question: Could they be looking ahead to their already clinched ACC Championship game? I think South Carolina is going to win this game. Which is a shame, because I hate them and would rather not see the Gamecocks in the 7-5 mix.

12:21 PM

Mississippi at Mississippi State

Egg Bowl. Who is the best running back in the state of Mississippi, Dexter McCluster or Anthony Dixon? Can the Rebels end a disappointing regular season on a high note an insure a trip to the Capital One or Cotton Bowl? Mississippi State is struggling, but Ole Miss has not been a world beater, especially on the road. Some intrigue here.

3:30 PM

Florida State at Florida

Tim Tebow's last game in Gainesville. Chance for an upset? 0.0%.

7:00 PM

Arkansas at LSU

Game of the week in the SEC. This is big for both schools. LSU can stay in the hunt for a top 10 finish with a win. Arkansas sits at 7-4 and could very well play its way into the Cotton, Outback, Chick-Fil-A tier with a win. This is probably the biggest game on the board for the Cats. We need LSU to hold on and win this. I'll be checking scores during my down time at Commonwealth.

8:00 PM

Georgia at Georgia Tech

Are the Rambling Wreck for real? They need to beat the reeling Bulldogs the maintain momentum going into the ACC Championship and a possible BCS Bowl. Though they are probably out of the National Title hunt, it is entirely possible that Tech could win out and finish at #2 or #3. I cannot help feeling sorry for Joe Cox, who basically gave a game away on his senior night. It will be interesting to see how he responds. If the Cats cannot take care of business Saturday, it would be good if Tech could hold serve to keep Georgia out of the 7-5 mix.

Happy Turkey Day.

Big Bowl Projection Post

Let's break down, in excruciating detail, the Cats Bowl prospects. We'll start with the SEC rules regarding bowl slotting.

After the BCS bowls, where we assume the SEC will slot two teams, the Capital One Bowl gets the next pick(3). It must pick the school with the next best overall record, or a team within one win of the next best overall record. The Cotton and Outback Bowls (4-5) pick next. Ordinarily the Cotton selects a team from the West and Outback a team from the East. They may choose from the opposite conference, but cannot do so until the other bowl picks. The Chick Fil A (6) then chooses next overall. The Liberty and Music City (7-8) are on equal footing. Each bowl ranks the remaining teams in order of preference. If there is a match among their first pick, that team decides where it goes. Otherwise, each bowl gets its preference. The Independence (9) chooses next, the the Papajohns.com (10) Bowl.

Most people seem to believe, and I agree, that the Cats have a clear shot at the Outback Bowl if they beat Tennessee. If so, we will be 8-4, with the second best overall record in the East. The SEC standings could look like this.

East
1. Florida 12-0, 8-0
2. Kentucky 8-4, 4-4
3. Georgia 6-6, 4-4
4. Tennessee 6-6, 3-5
5. South Carolina 6-6, 3-5
6. Vandy

West
1. Alabama 12-0, 8-0
2. Ole Miss 9-3, 5-3
3. LSU 9-3, 5-3
4(t). Arkansas 7-5, 3-5
4(t). Auburn 7-5, 3-5
6. Mississippi St. 4-8, 2-6

Again, these are likely records, if all the favorites (except UT, which is currently favored by 3 points) win. The only possible wrench would be if Arkansas beats LSU, making both teams 8-4 and 4-4 in the league. The Cotton would then choose between those teams and the Outback would have a real choice to make between UK and the other. I still like our chances. I suppose the same scenario could present itself with Auburn beating Alabama, but that seems more remote. Also, I am not sure that Auburn has as much appeal to the Outback. Anyway, the Outback seems to be the overwhelming likelyhood if we win. Worst case scenario, we would fall one spot to the Chick-Fil-A.

Now, for the sake of argument, lets assume the Cats do not win. If all other favorites hold serve, the SEC East standings look like this:

East
1. Florida 12-0, 8-0
2. Tennessee 7-5, 4-4
3. Georgia 6-6, 4-4
4. Kentucky 7-5, 3-5
5. South Carolina 6-6, 3-5
6. Vandy

So, assuming the BCS gobbles up Florida and Alabama, that leaves Ole Miss for the Capital One and LSU for the Cotton. It would makes sense that Tennessee gets to the Outback. At that point, the Chick-Fil-A (New Year's Eve in Atlanta) is choosing between UK, Arkansas and Auburn, three teams with potentially identical overall and league records. A lot of locals are thinking Chick-Fil-A even if we lose. I'm not so sure. First of all, we were not even on this bowl's radar prior to this week. Secondly, Auburn is a whopping hour and forty five minute drive to Atlanta. Finally, Ryan Mallett is looking more like a sure fire NFL first round arm every week. I think the Razorbacks might be the most sexy pick. But they are not as close as we are. I honestly couldn't say what the Chick-Fil-A officials will do.

Moreover, several teams could improve their lies with wins this weekend. Clearly we should root against potential co-suitors Arkansas and Auburn in favor of their respective foes, LSU and Alabama, two teams who beat us in the pecking order regardless . Just as importantly, we should be rooting like hell against Georgia and South Carolina. They play ranked rivals Georgia Tech and Clemson, respectively. Both are projected to lose and finish the season 6-6, but either could bring itself back into the Liberty/Music City tier with a win. With all this lurking, I believe the Cats' most likely destination with a loss is the Music City Bowl. If things broke right, we could still end up in the Chick-Fil-A. I doubt we will fall below Nashville no matter how it shakes out, but certainly stranger things have happened.

In 2007, the Cats appeared to have a Chick-Fil-A Bowl bid pretty well in their sights even if they lost to Tennessee on the final day of the regular season. The day before, however, Arkansas pulled a big upset against eventual National Champion LSU. This catapulted the Razorback into an unlikely Cotton Bowl bid, driving 8-4 Auburn down into our spot in Catlanta. Lets hope something like this does not crop up.

Of course, the easiest way to avoid this is to take care of business on Saturday. I'll let some outsider's predictions take us out. Go Cats.

ESPN Mark Schlabach
Music City v. Boston College



ESPN Bruce Feldman
Music City v. Florida State



CFN Scout
Outback v. Wisconsin



CBS Sports
Papajohns.com v. South Florida

Sunday Reset

Let me say first of all that last night's win came as a shock to me. I felt going in that we had a chance if we put the things that we'd done well in previous games together. At halftime, however, it seemed we wouldn't come up with that kind of performance. The D looked positively awful, and I was pulling my hair out at the play calling. When we tucked the ball away during the last possession of the half, I wondered outloud if we were really trying to win or just avoid embarrassment.

The second half was one of the stranger 30 minutes of football I can remember. Yes, we played well and made some of our own luck, but Georgia just seemed determined to give us the game. Seriously, how would you feel if you were a Bulldogs fan today? (Aside from feeling like your dog died). What if the Cats had outgained a team 2-1 and lost on senior night by committing four turnovers in the second half, including one right before what seemed like a sure fire tieing touchdown? No way to describe it. An awful game for them and their fanbase.

But enough about the poor Bulldogs, lets talk about the rich and prosperous Cats. Major credit in this game has to go to Sam Maxwell. This year's defense was supposed to be led by three stars. Jarmon never played a snap. Trevard missed half the season and, lets just be honest here, has struggled since returning from injury. Even Micah has been slowed by nagging injuries of his own and been quiet the last two or three weeks. Maxwell is not only the team's second leading tackler, he is second in the SEC in interceptions with five. He was all over the field Saturday, and sniffed out another big INT at crunchtime. Major credit.

Finally, an interesting stat before moving on to where we stand now. UK is +8 in turnover margin on the road this year. We are -7 at home. This obviously goes hand in hand with the results we've been getting. Come Monday, UK is going to have to figure a way to get a roadlike performance in Commonwealth to end the season. Because. . .

Next Saturday's tilt against UT is the most important game of the Rich Brooks era. Examine this with me for a minute. The Cats are playing for what should be a trip to the Outback Bowl. A win makes us 8-4 and second in the SEC East (actually in a tie with Georgia but with a better overall record). Considering what this team has gone through and the fact that they've won 4 of 5 with basically no passing game, an 8-4 year would go down as one of the best coaching jobs in D-1 this season. A New Years Day Bowl for this team would outstrap anything anyone could have predicted. I could also see it sending Rick Brooks off into the sunset in the most satisfying way possible.

Then, of course, there is the opponent. Our losing streak to Tennessee has reached epidemic proportions. Unlike Florida, kicks our ass year after year, UT has been let off the hook several times. We just cannot get the monkey off our backs. Our program needs this win. The rivalry takes on a bit of a new meaning for me now because I hate their coach. Seriously, Lane Kiffin is the guy in your fraternity nobody liked. No one likes losing to that guy. Coaches and history aside, there is probably some genuine bad blood between members of these two teams. What exactly happened this off season at the Royal Lexington Apartments remains a guarded mystery to most of us fans. Once we learned nothing would come of it, it was like it never happened. My guess is that whatever happened is still very real to whoever was involved. It will be nasty down there.

Finally, there is this. This year's team enters the game with almost the same resume as the 2007 Wildcats. Think about that. Woodson, Woodyard, Tamme, Burton, Little, Stevie, Dickie. Those guys. Pulled off a couple of great upsets. Spit the bit against Mississippi State. Took care of business otherwise. Walked into Commonwealth 7-4 against a team they matched up with on paper, with a chance to play football on New Years Day still hanging in the air. It was my favorite year as a UK Football Fan, and really the impetus for starting this blog. Still, I'll never forget the feeling walking out of Commonwealth two years ago after not being able to pull that game out. My guess is Micah, Trevard, Sam Maxwell, Derrick Locke and many others remember that too. The demons are still swirling around. A week from today, they might be gone, replaced with a plane ticket to Tampa, sweet vindication for Brooks and Co. and a win over a monumental jackass.

More this week, especially the potential bowl scenarios. But for now, I think you have to agree, this is one big game.

UGa Preview

The Kentucky Wildcats, they are who we thought they were. As I said at the end of last year and in the preseason this year, this team was going to be slightly better on offense, slightly worse on defense, and was overall going to look a lot like the 2008 team. I think that all of that has largely come true. Especially the part about the 2008 and 2009 teams being similar.

At this point in the season, neither team underachieved, but both had chances to win games that they just couldn't come down with. The biggest bummer for year's team was a 42-38 home loss to Georgia where we did everything but win the game. It took a Montana to Clark'esque touchdown on fourth down by Georgia, followed by a defensive lineman intercepting a Cobb pass with one hand. The loss dropped us to 6-4 and set the stage for the disappointing poopfest that was the Vandy game the following week.

This year, thankfully, the Cats got to Vandy before Georgia and got their sixth win. (Of course the poopfest came two weeks earlier against Mississippi State). Now we can focus on the final two games of the year with little pressure. Lose, and you had the season most people were expecting. Win, and given all the injuries to key players, you've had a pretty good year and will head to a bowl people can be happy about.

Hope springs eternal as it relates to the Georgia game. A.J. Green, the Bulldogs all everything wideout, will miss the contest. And, as John Clay and I have both pointed out this week, the Cats seem to play better football on the road. Clearly, Georgia's defense had trouble with Randall Cobb last year, and we nearly beat them without Derrick Locke and really no passing game to speak of.

Of course, as the week has rolled on, we got sobering news that Cobb was questionable due to a shoulder injury. Today, Brooks announced that Cobb was a game time decision. Cobb's injury will make it hard for Georgia to prepare a game plan. It will also make it hard for Kentucky, though my guess is Brooks knows more than he is saying.

The Cobb injury should make it difficult to write a game preview. But it really doesn't. If Randall doesn't play, the preview is simple. The Cats have literally no chance to win between the hedges without him. We will have to run Locke 20 times, Newton will have to complete passes to receivers besides Larod King, and the defense would have to hold Washaun Ealey and Co. literally in check for probably 40 minutes on the field. It is just too much to ask of a team that is already giving up a sizable talent advantage. Yes, this isn't your father's Georgia team, but they still own wins over South Carolina, Arizona, Arkansas and Auburn and have played exactly one bad game (45-19 road loss to UT) all year.

With Cobb healthy, it becomes manageable. Take away Green, and only one Georgia receiver has caught more than 16 balls. Ealey has come on of late (when he wasn't getting his eye poked out), but Georgia has no superstar back. The Bulldogs have been up and down on defense as well. With Cobb in there, the keys become:

1. The Defense must play like it did at Auburn or in the second half against Vandy. If we start playing ole' or giving up 10 yards at a time, this team has no chance.
2. Newton must make some plays with both his arm and his feet to take some of the pressure off of Cobb and Locke. This includes spreading around the ball on offense to Cobb and Matthews, not just relying on King as a security blanket.
3. A TE must step up and make a play or two in a big situation.
4. Special teams. We've kept our finger in the dyke the last few weeks. If this old issue rears its ugly head, we are cooked.
5. Special players. All this aside, we can win this game if Cobb and/or Locke will us to it. This is why I think Cobb's participation is crucial. A take it to the house pick from forgotten pre-season All-American Trevard Lindley would be nice as well.

We are who we thought we were, but that doesn't mean that for three hours we cannot be a little more. Its on. See you Saturday.

New SEC Projections

East

1. Florida 12-0, 8-0
Sugar


2. Georgia 7-5, 5-3
Outback


3. Tennessee 7-5, 4-4
Chick-Fil-A


4. South Carolina 6-6, 3-5
Papajohns.com


5. Kentucky 6-6, 2-6
Independence


6. Vandy 2-10, 0-8
None


West

1. Alabama 12-0, 8-0
National Championship


2. LSU 10-2, 6-2
Capital One


3. Ole Miss 8-4, 4-4
Cotton


4(t). Arkansas 7-5, 3-5
Liberty


4(t). Auburn 7-5, 3-5
Music City


6. Mississippi State 4-8, 2-6
Out of the soup

Lot of guesswork on the slotting this week. If it shakes out like this, the Outback Bowl will choose between Georgia, UT, Auburn and Arkansas, with everything falling from there. Some interesting games coming up this weekend. LSU and Ole Miss will square off in a likely Capital One Bowl play-in game. Mississippi State is down to its dieing breath heading to Arkansas.


As for the Cats, we once again find ourselves at season's end with a chance to move up. It is a virtual certainty that a 7-5 SEC team will play in the Chick-Fil-A Bowl and a very good chance that one will play on New Years as well. We've managed to avoid the Shreveport hole for the last three years, but 6-6 will almost assuredly land us there or further down (Papajohns.com has the dead last pick) this year.

Chip Cosby and KSR have now made a point I hadn't thought of. Both the Pizza Web Site and Liberty conflict with the UK-U of L basketball game. This may impact our chance at the Liberty. It won't impact the Papajohns.com Bowl unless Mississippi State gets bowl eligible, the only scenario under which that committee gets a choice. Frankly, I see a lot more Cats fans making the trip to Birmingham than Shreveport, big basketball game or no. I've mentioned several times, but it bears repeating, a trip to the Shreve is almost impossible to justify on the homefront.

So hey, lets get some wins, boys.

Road Dogs

Trying to put the Cats' season in some sort of perspective, I am struck by an interesting fact. UK has played at least its three, if not four, best games on the road this year. Overall we are 3-3 at home. Our wins were close over one of the BCS conference's worst teams (that is you, Da Ville), uninspired against ULA-Monroe, and hardly dominant over EKU. In contrast, we've beaten two SEC teams (one of them decent) and owned a lower D-1 team on the road. Even the loss to USC was a pretty fair game for the Cats, one we were arguably a play or two from winning.

At home, we had enormous clunkers against Florida and Mississippi State, and a game but ultimately lacking showing against Alabama.

Last year the Cats spanked Louisville 27-2, eecked out bowl eligibility against Mississippi State and put together an inspired defensive effort in a 17-14 loss to then #2 and undefeated Alabama. All on the road. We've played all those teams at home this year, with very different results. Last year's best home win was the 21-20 comeback over Arkansas. A fun win, but still a narrow one over a team that did not go bowling. There was also an embarrassing loss to Vandy at Commonwealth.

The argument breaks down some when one takes 2007 into account, but only on the surface. True, the home wins against LSU and Louisville were the best of the Brooks era. Still, there was the season killing loss to Mississippi State at home. A great road win against a Cotton Bowl Arkansas squad catapulted the Cats into the top 10. In fact, LSU might be the exception that proves the rule. It is probably the last real good game we've played at Commonwealth.

Throw in three straight bowl wins, and you could make a good argument that we play better away from home.

What I don't know is why. My theories are not very scientific. One, our crowd still lags behind most of the SEC in enthusiasm and noise. Two, we play better in warmer weather. Three, something about the players' road routine is good or something about the home one is bad. Finally, it could all be a big coincidence. I'm not sure which of these is true, but I am interested in your thoughts. I thought it was interesting and worth mention.

Happy Tuesday.

Bowl Eligible

This was another weird one. Derrick Locke led Kentucky in passing yards with 41. On the same vein, Morgan Newton had more yards receiving than passing. The Cats won because they played to win in the second half rather than looking for style points or to prove something. It is clear that Brooks and Joker lost almost all confidence in the forward pass after Newton and Hartline threw identical vomit inducing interceptions in the first half. For Hartline's part, I am concerned that he may have lost any chance at more meaningful snaps with one throw.

Back to the main point, this team's offense has an identity. It is built around two athletes the likes of which we rarely see at UK. Watching Cobb and Locke on the sidelines as the game clock ticked away, theirs was a look of understanding, "we just won this game, and we are both banged up and dog tired". Credit must also go to the O-Line, which is also one of the best we've had.

Finally, Sam Maxwell deserves special mention, anchoring the defense while Micah, Trevard and Corey Peters did not have great games. Sam has made a number of big plays this year, but this might have been his best overall as a Cat.

Of course, the best news is of the bigger picture variety. The Cats are bowl eligible for the fourth time in as many years. It is a nice accomplishment. Barring something very unusual, we will be bowling. I still see the Independence Bowl as a likely destination. Of course, this is bad news on a personal front as it is one game I simply won't go to. I've sliced it up and run the numbers, flights etc. a million different ways, but there is no way I can justify it.

So, how do we avoid the Shreveport hole? One way would be to not win another game, hope that everyone else gets to seven wins and we fall past Shreveport to the Papajohns.com Bowl in Birmingham. As things stand, I expect USC to lose to Clemson on 11/28, making them 6-6 and probably the least attractive Bowl participant.

Better yet, we could find a way to win one of the next two games and get into the mix for a number of bowls. Right now, it doesn't appear the SEC will have more than 3-4 eight win teams. I'd say at least one 7-5 team will play on New Year's Day (as USC did last year).

Personally, I haven't sampled the Kool-Aid yet but I believe we have some chance to win each of the games. Georgia has had a disappointing year, but its only home loss is to Florida. Their only bad loss this year was a 45-19 beatdown by UT back on 10/10. Joe Cox has been inconsistent, but pretty darn good when he's been good. Stud receiver A.J. Green was hurt during yesterday's game against Auburn. Not sure of his status. If we play the way we played against Auburn or in the second half of the Vandy game, we at least have a puncher's chance.

I'll be curious to see which UT team shows up in Commonwealth. I am going to have to assume that UT will beat us until we finally beat them, so I can never feel to confident about that game. Still, UT hasn't won a road game, even during the stretch of the season when it was playing lights out. And no matter how much he has improved, they are still quarterbacked by Jonathon Crompton. So we shall see.

I know nothing about Cobb's shoulder, but word did not today that Hartline will sit the remainder of the regular season. He wasn't ready to play yesterday, that's for sure.

More during the week.

Live Blog for a big game

Cover it Live Saturday at 12:15

Sorry there has not been much substantive content this week.  I am stuck in the Ashland Plaza Hotel this week, which is not particularly Wi-fi or hot water in the shower friendly.  In any event,  I hope that as many readers as possible will tune in with laptop in hand, whether you are able to watch the game or not.