Here are unscientific and way too soon projected SEC standings, together with resulting predictions regarding bowl game slots.
SEC East
Florida
11-1, 7-1
Sugar
Georgia
8-4, 5-3
Outback
USC
7-5, 4-4
Gator
UK
7-5, 3-5
Music City
UT
5-7, 2-6
Vandy
1-11, 0-8
SEC West
Alabama
12-0, 8-0
National Campionship
Arkansas
9-3, 5-3
Capital One
LSU
8-4, 5-3
Cotton
Auburn
7-5, 3-5
Chick-Fil-A
Ole Miss
7-5, 3-5
Liberty
Mississippi State
5-7, 2-6
Monday, August 30, 2010
Saturday, August 28, 2010
Keys to the season
As spring ball ended and the schedule started to shape up, I felt that the biggest key to the 2010 season for the Cats would be quarterback play. If Kentucky could mount an effective vertical attack on offense, the schedule set up for 8 wins. If it could not, we were looking at the potential end to our bowl streak.
With the quarterbacking decision made, at least in the short run, I am placing less emphasis on this now. I'll talk more about Joker's election to go with Mike Hartline in a separate post. For now, I think we are going to know what to expect from the quarterback position based on several things left unspoken in fall camp. There was no ringing endorsement, no claims of vast improvement and no easy decision. It is safe to say that the quarterback who started 14 games for the Wildcats in 2008 and 2009 is the one you'll see on the field against Louisville September 4.
So, what are the important variables:
With the quarterbacking decision made, at least in the short run, I am placing less emphasis on this now. I'll talk more about Joker's election to go with Mike Hartline in a separate post. For now, I think we are going to know what to expect from the quarterback position based on several things left unspoken in fall camp. There was no ringing endorsement, no claims of vast improvement and no easy decision. It is safe to say that the quarterback who started 14 games for the Wildcats in 2008 and 2009 is the one you'll see on the field against Louisville September 4.
So, what are the important variables:
- 1. The Defensive Tackle position has been as important to the 2006-2009 resurgence of the Kentucky program as anything. Past UK teams have lacked size up front and were constantly blown off the ball. Guys like Myron Pryor, Ventrell Jenkins and Corey Peters have helped to change all that. There looks to be a significant dropoff here. Ricky Lumpkin returns as a starter. There is some experience around him with Shane McCord and Mark Crawford, but not a lot. The Cats were really counting on Soph. Mister Cobble to come in and be the second starter, but he is ineligible. Can these guys, or surprise last minute recruit Elliot Porter step up? If not, our run defense may really struggle.
- 2. Once thought to be a team strength, the secondary is starting to look like a question mark. The Cats were set at corner with Randall Burden and Paul Warford, then Warford got bit by the academic bug. Once thought to be a sure fire star, UK is still wondering if the light is going to come on completely for FS Winston Guy. The good news, even with Warford out there is quality depth at corner, and several newcomers will challenge for time at safety.
- 3. The O-Line should have sufficient talent to replace four departing starters. With position battles still going on at Center and RT, how well they will gel as a unit is a great unknown. With what will likely be a heavy reliance on the running game, the big guys will be carrying this offense.
- 4. Injuries. As always, the Cats' big bugaboo. Can we remain healthy? Last year Cobb and Locke suffered dings and dents, but were largely able to remain on the field throughout the year. Had either or both of these guys gone down, it would have been a long season. That will also be the case this year. And as always, the Cats need to avoid a late season swoon that sometimes happens when our guys get ground down. The November 6 game against Charleston Southern and November 20th bye should help.
- 5. Joker. Phillips has served notice over the past 8 months that it isn't going to be business as usual at UK. What does he have in store for 2010? The new boss wasn't the same as the old boss in the preseason. Will there be new wrinkles on the field as well?
Season preview: Home stretch
After about a three week hiatus, I'm back to give the final segment of my season preview. If you haven't been keeping up, we've already looked at the Non conference games, a huge three game Keeneland style homestand, and a couple of early season road games. At this point, we have UK at 5-4, with wins over YouofL, WKU, Akron, Georgia and Charleston Southern as well as losses against Florida, Ole Miss, Auburn and South Carolina.
Today we look at three more winnable games which, along with the aforementioned laugher against Charleston Southern, make up the last third of the season.
UK visits Mississippi State on October 30th. The Bulldogs should be roughly 4-4 going into this game and still entertaining bowl hopes. Expectation are higher in Dan Mullins' second year. Fortunately, Anthony Dixon is now a San Francisco 49er. During the Cats' current bowl streak the road team is 4-0 in this game, though why is anyone's guess. (It should tell you something else about what Rich Brooks accomplished that his teams went to bowls in 2007 and 2009 despite losing to Mississippi State.) By this point in the season, UK should have settled into a rhythm with its quarterback situation, and the new defensive players given a chance to gel. I like us to win another road squeeker. UK 24 MSU 21
After the Charleston Southern game on November 6, Vandy comes back to town on November 13th. Cats fans will recall a rainy, freezing cold night at Commonwealth in 2008 when Vandy got bowl eligible by beating us 31-24. The Cats brainfarted their way to a 24-10 halftime deficit, then proceeded to piss away their comeback with stupid penalties, including a brain searing three roughing the punter fouls. Well, this isn't the 2008 Vandy team. Coming off a winless SEC campaign in 2009, Vandy figures to have trouble scoring points against SEC competition. Led by All-SEC LB Chris Marve and what is said to be a solid secondary, the D should be solid. Like last year, expect this game to be Cobb, Locke, Cobb, Locke. As always, this game will be chippy, but as in most season's past, we'll have more than enough for the 'Dores. UK 24 Vandy 14.
On paper, this is the year that we finally go down and take one from Tennessee. We've been so close so many times. Derrick Dooley said that on September 4th half of his starters will be seeing their first major college snap. Think about that for a minute. That is a program in shambles. When the Cats visit Neyland on November 27th, the Vols will likely be out of the bowl picture, playing for nothing. So how could I not pick our boys to win? As I said last year, too much pain has been inflicted for me to think rationally about this game. Even though hope springs eternal. . . .UT 28 UT 24.
So there you go, another 7-5, 3-5 season with a repeat trip to the Music City Bowl. If my season previews are starting to sound like a broken record, such is life. But there are a lot of games for the Cats to go out and get this year. Will start talking about how that might happen this week.
Today we look at three more winnable games which, along with the aforementioned laugher against Charleston Southern, make up the last third of the season.
UK visits Mississippi State on October 30th. The Bulldogs should be roughly 4-4 going into this game and still entertaining bowl hopes. Expectation are higher in Dan Mullins' second year. Fortunately, Anthony Dixon is now a San Francisco 49er. During the Cats' current bowl streak the road team is 4-0 in this game, though why is anyone's guess. (It should tell you something else about what Rich Brooks accomplished that his teams went to bowls in 2007 and 2009 despite losing to Mississippi State.) By this point in the season, UK should have settled into a rhythm with its quarterback situation, and the new defensive players given a chance to gel. I like us to win another road squeeker. UK 24 MSU 21
After the Charleston Southern game on November 6, Vandy comes back to town on November 13th. Cats fans will recall a rainy, freezing cold night at Commonwealth in 2008 when Vandy got bowl eligible by beating us 31-24. The Cats brainfarted their way to a 24-10 halftime deficit, then proceeded to piss away their comeback with stupid penalties, including a brain searing three roughing the punter fouls. Well, this isn't the 2008 Vandy team. Coming off a winless SEC campaign in 2009, Vandy figures to have trouble scoring points against SEC competition. Led by All-SEC LB Chris Marve and what is said to be a solid secondary, the D should be solid. Like last year, expect this game to be Cobb, Locke, Cobb, Locke. As always, this game will be chippy, but as in most season's past, we'll have more than enough for the 'Dores. UK 24 Vandy 14.
On paper, this is the year that we finally go down and take one from Tennessee. We've been so close so many times. Derrick Dooley said that on September 4th half of his starters will be seeing their first major college snap. Think about that for a minute. That is a program in shambles. When the Cats visit Neyland on November 27th, the Vols will likely be out of the bowl picture, playing for nothing. So how could I not pick our boys to win? As I said last year, too much pain has been inflicted for me to think rationally about this game. Even though hope springs eternal. . . .UT 28 UT 24.
So there you go, another 7-5, 3-5 season with a repeat trip to the Music City Bowl. If my season previews are starting to sound like a broken record, such is life. But there are a lot of games for the Cats to go out and get this year. Will start talking about how that might happen this week.
Tuesday, August 10, 2010
Early season road games
Today I continue our Pulp Fictionesque, non-linear look at UK's schedule and where it might lead us. If you aren't caught up, take a look at my most recent posts on the non-conference games as well as a critical three game October homestand. Of the seven games I've picked thus far, I have the Cats at 5-2, with home losses to South Carolina and Auburn.
After three non-conference games to start the schedule, the Cats will travel in back to back weeks with a Bataan death march down to Gainesville and a trip to Oxford.
If you are a college football fan, you have a good handle on the outlook as Kentucky heads to Florida on September 25th. The bad news? It is the only one on the schedule the Cats simply cannot win. Yes, Kentucky had some competitive games with Florida in the last decade, Tim Tebow is gone, our program is greatly improved and it has to happen sometime. Simply put, Florida will once again be putting too much talent on the field for our guys to compete.
There is good news. Assuming UK gets past Louisville, it will be almost assuredly be 3-0 going into this game, albeit without having played a top 60 division one program. This game comes along at a perfect time to allow us to not get big headed, and to see who we really are. A good showing here could set the tone for the rest of the season, not unlike our solid effort at Alabama in 2008. In any event, absent injury, there is no downside to having Florida on your schedule in the fourth game. That said, Florida 45 UK 14.
The addition of Jeremy Masoli adds intrigue to the Cats' matchup against the Ole Miss Rebels at The Grove. Ole Miss was looking ripe for the plucking with all of its offensive production graduated and having come off a mildly disappointing year. A year ago, the Rebs were a sexy top 10 pick and Jevan Snead considered a sure fire first rounder. Instead, they ended up with four losses and Snead is coaching the scout team at his old middle school. Houston "Left" Nutt is clearly feeling the heat, as he has brought in Masoli, who was dismissed from Oregon after continued legal troubles. The kid has a world of talent and is a hell of a leader. Nutt wouldn't take the heat for bringing him in only to have Masoli sit the bench. On defense, five of the front seven starters return, including All-SEC caliber DT Jerrell Powe and DE Kentrell Locket. I can see this being one game where UK has trouble moving the ball on the ground. As you know, that spells trouble. This could be a war of attrition, and it is imminently winnable. Still I see: Ole Miss 21 UK 17. On a side note, I really want to get this one, because I'll be following the Cats to Oxford this year. Holla.
After three non-conference games to start the schedule, the Cats will travel in back to back weeks with a Bataan death march down to Gainesville and a trip to Oxford.
If you are a college football fan, you have a good handle on the outlook as Kentucky heads to Florida on September 25th. The bad news? It is the only one on the schedule the Cats simply cannot win. Yes, Kentucky had some competitive games with Florida in the last decade, Tim Tebow is gone, our program is greatly improved and it has to happen sometime. Simply put, Florida will once again be putting too much talent on the field for our guys to compete.
There is good news. Assuming UK gets past Louisville, it will be almost assuredly be 3-0 going into this game, albeit without having played a top 60 division one program. This game comes along at a perfect time to allow us to not get big headed, and to see who we really are. A good showing here could set the tone for the rest of the season, not unlike our solid effort at Alabama in 2008. In any event, absent injury, there is no downside to having Florida on your schedule in the fourth game. That said, Florida 45 UK 14.
The addition of Jeremy Masoli adds intrigue to the Cats' matchup against the Ole Miss Rebels at The Grove. Ole Miss was looking ripe for the plucking with all of its offensive production graduated and having come off a mildly disappointing year. A year ago, the Rebs were a sexy top 10 pick and Jevan Snead considered a sure fire first rounder. Instead, they ended up with four losses and Snead is coaching the scout team at his old middle school. Houston "Left" Nutt is clearly feeling the heat, as he has brought in Masoli, who was dismissed from Oregon after continued legal troubles. The kid has a world of talent and is a hell of a leader. Nutt wouldn't take the heat for bringing him in only to have Masoli sit the bench. On defense, five of the front seven starters return, including All-SEC caliber DT Jerrell Powe and DE Kentrell Locket. I can see this being one game where UK has trouble moving the ball on the ground. As you know, that spells trouble. This could be a war of attrition, and it is imminently winnable. Still I see: Ole Miss 21 UK 17. On a side note, I really want to get this one, because I'll be following the Cats to Oxford this year. Holla.
Wednesday, August 4, 2010
Homestand
We continue our season preview/predictions with a look at what should be a critical three game homestand in October. Three games against beatable but capable SEC East teams. Three games that can make or break a season.
Last year it was back to back road weeks at USC and Auburn. With the way the schedule shaped up, my preseason hopes were pinned on getting a rip in those two games and starting the season 3-3. Of course, the rest was history. After a narrow, no Wildcat on the 2 point conversion, miss at Spurrier Tech, the Cats got touchdown runs from three different Quarterbacks and stole one at Auburn. We used that momentum to turn in a pretty good regular season for a team that had modest expectations.
This year, the Cats have three straight winnable but challenging tilts in games 6, 7 and 8. Dead in the heart of the season. Getting one win would be satisfying, two huge. Three and the season could be a magical one. The Cats beat two of these opponents, Georgia and Auburn, on their own turf last year. The third, USCJr., has had our goat of late, but always shows up with comparable talent. Anything is possible in this stretch. As true as that statement is, so it this one: If these games were played tomorrow, UK would not be favored in any one.
How might it shake out?
On October 9, The Fighting Chizeks come to town. Auburn could be flying high at this point of the season, 4-1 or 5-0 (the Cats should be no worse than 3-2). Auburn has to replace QB Chris Todd and 1,300 yard rusher Ben Tate, but should be in good hands with JC transfer Cam Newton and several talented backs. The whole O-Line and both starting wide receivers return. The Tigers' defense was not good last year, but with seven returning starters and Chizek's focus on that side of the ball, it should be much improved. I think UK has much more than a puncher's chance in this game. If our anointed quarterback has found a groove by then, we should score some points. Still, Auburn should be improved this year and frankly, I cannot see beating them back to back years. Aub 28-21.
October 16th bring the Gamecocks and a game that could be a battle for the upper eschelon of the SEC East. I'm still having Alshon Jeffrey flashbacks from last year's game. Our secondary was depleted, and the freshman wideout caught everything in site. I wonder if he is going to be the next in the Munnerlyn, Norwood line of Cats killers. In any event, I cannot predict a win against these guys again until one comes. I just can't. USC 21-13.
The homestand closes with the Georgia Bulldogs on October 23rd. The complexion of that game will be shaped somewhat by what happens up until that point. Georgia will be thin at the quarterback position and thick just about everywhere else on offense. Washaun Ealey, who was not technically a starter last year, will be one of the SEC's best backs. A.J. Green is one of the SEC's best receivers. The entire offensive line returns. As set as UGa appears on O, it is a mess defensively. Mark Richt blew out his whole defensive staff and will change schemes to a 3-4. Few starters return. Even though last year's defense was not good, it had several talented players who won't be back, most notably LB Rennie Curren. I like Kentucky in this game, especially if it is riding some momentum. The Dogs couldn't hold last year's team under 30 at home. Can they really do it now? UK 34-31.
Keep in mind these are some tough predictions. I would not be surprised if UK won or lost any one of these games. The season will be made or broken here.
Last year it was back to back road weeks at USC and Auburn. With the way the schedule shaped up, my preseason hopes were pinned on getting a rip in those two games and starting the season 3-3. Of course, the rest was history. After a narrow, no Wildcat on the 2 point conversion, miss at Spurrier Tech, the Cats got touchdown runs from three different Quarterbacks and stole one at Auburn. We used that momentum to turn in a pretty good regular season for a team that had modest expectations.
This year, the Cats have three straight winnable but challenging tilts in games 6, 7 and 8. Dead in the heart of the season. Getting one win would be satisfying, two huge. Three and the season could be a magical one. The Cats beat two of these opponents, Georgia and Auburn, on their own turf last year. The third, USCJr., has had our goat of late, but always shows up with comparable talent. Anything is possible in this stretch. As true as that statement is, so it this one: If these games were played tomorrow, UK would not be favored in any one.
How might it shake out?
On October 9, The Fighting Chizeks come to town. Auburn could be flying high at this point of the season, 4-1 or 5-0 (the Cats should be no worse than 3-2). Auburn has to replace QB Chris Todd and 1,300 yard rusher Ben Tate, but should be in good hands with JC transfer Cam Newton and several talented backs. The whole O-Line and both starting wide receivers return. The Tigers' defense was not good last year, but with seven returning starters and Chizek's focus on that side of the ball, it should be much improved. I think UK has much more than a puncher's chance in this game. If our anointed quarterback has found a groove by then, we should score some points. Still, Auburn should be improved this year and frankly, I cannot see beating them back to back years. Aub 28-21.
October 16th bring the Gamecocks and a game that could be a battle for the upper eschelon of the SEC East. I'm still having Alshon Jeffrey flashbacks from last year's game. Our secondary was depleted, and the freshman wideout caught everything in site. I wonder if he is going to be the next in the Munnerlyn, Norwood line of Cats killers. In any event, I cannot predict a win against these guys again until one comes. I just can't. USC 21-13.
The homestand closes with the Georgia Bulldogs on October 23rd. The complexion of that game will be shaped somewhat by what happens up until that point. Georgia will be thin at the quarterback position and thick just about everywhere else on offense. Washaun Ealey, who was not technically a starter last year, will be one of the SEC's best backs. A.J. Green is one of the SEC's best receivers. The entire offensive line returns. As set as UGa appears on O, it is a mess defensively. Mark Richt blew out his whole defensive staff and will change schemes to a 3-4. Few starters return. Even though last year's defense was not good, it had several talented players who won't be back, most notably LB Rennie Curren. I like Kentucky in this game, especially if it is riding some momentum. The Dogs couldn't hold last year's team under 30 at home. Can they really do it now? UK 34-31.
Keep in mind these are some tough predictions. I would not be surprised if UK won or lost any one of these games. The season will be made or broken here.
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