Friday, September 3, 2010
Speaking of Steve Johnson
I'm slightly embarassed to say that this might be one of the ten happiest moments of my life.
Wednesday, September 1, 2010
Chip Cosby Visits UK Football Fan
Today on UK Football Fan we are visited by Lexington Herald-Leader writer Chip Cosby. Aside from being a hell of a good guy, Chip does an excellent job covering the Football Cats for the local paper and has been real generous in agreeing to do this Q and A with me for the second year in a row. A link his UK Football blog is on the right and here.
Questions below are mine, Chip's responses are in bold.
1. Last year you correctly predicted in this space that Sam Maxwell
would be the veteran Cat to blow up in 2009. What about 2010?
I'm going to go with another guy on the defensive side, Mychal Bailey. The fact that he came in and won the starter's job at safety in just three weeks after arriving from junior-college speaks volumes about how much the coaching staff trusts his talent. A sub 4.4 guy and a big hitter, he could immediately become a household name as he gets more comfortable throughout the season.
2. Mike Hartline won the starting job for the Louisville game, but
there has been no heaping praise for his play this summer. This makes me a
little nervous but the optimist in me hopes that it's the coaching staff's
effort to manage expectations. Have you heard anything that indicates that
2010 Hartline will be a step up from the 2008-2009 version?
Hartline has his critics, but I do believe he'll be better in 2010. Let's face it. He is what he is. He doesn't have a cannon for an arm, and he's not going to overwhelm you with his speed. He looked horrible against Florida and Alabama, but so did Arkansas' Ryan Mallett, who might end up being the No. 1 pick in next year's Draft. He has done some good things: the late comeback against Arkansas, MVP of the Liberty Bowl, the solid first half at South Carolina. Also, he's a fifth-year senior who understands the offense, and seems to have regained the respect and trust of his teammates after he made some critical comments after being benched two years ago. I think the offense will once again rely heavily on Randall Cobb and Derrick Locke. They just need Hartline to step up and make the throws when they need him to make them, and I think he can do that.
3. Hope springs eternal in the Commonwealth, and the schedule sets up
nicely, but looking at it empirically, this team has a lot of holes to fill
defensively. Outside of Travathan, Guy and Burden, where are you expecting
the production to come from?
They really need some guys to come through up front, particularly at tackle. Ricky Lumpkin needs to become a high-impact player, and it would be nice if they could get something out of Shane McCord. Donte Rumph should be an impact player once he shakes off the rust and gets into shape. I think DeQuin Evans is set for a solid year at end.
4. Setting aside K Joe Mansour, who is kind of a special case, what
true freshman do you see making an impact for this year's Cats, if any?
Interestingly enough, Mansour might not make as big an impact as originally thought, as Ryan Tydlacka is currently the starting placekicker. Jerrell Priester will definitely see time at corner, and Nermin Delic is in the rotation at end. While the Cats have plenty of depth at tailback, the coaches really like Raymond Sanders. Tyler Robinson is backing up Jordan Aumiller at tight end, and big things are expected of Rumph.
5. What are the biggest change you see thus far in the Joker era? Is
there any difference with how the team and staff interact with the media.
Understanding that nearly all the practices have been closed to the media,
do you have any feel for how the Cats might look different on the field this
year?
It's really hard to tell with practices being closed. You pretty much have to go on what you hear from the coaches and people who are close enough to the program to be able to go watch practice. But we won't really know for sure until the ball is kicked off. I've heard plenty of stories out of fall camp over the years that became myths once the lights came on. Not much has changed with Joker as far as the media goes. He's been accessible and friendly, although he doesn't reveal injury information quite to the extent that Rich Brooks did.
6. Do any streaks end this year?
I know it sounds crazy, but I think South Carolina and Tennessee both go down this year. Fact of the matter is, South Carolina has been no better than UK over the last 3-4 years overall; they've just managed to find ways to beat the Cats head-to-head. With the game being at home and UK coming so close in past years, I think they finally get it done. I know that Spurrier owns UK, but the Spurrier mystique is nowhere near what it used to be.
I also think this is the year they get Tennessee. There's all kinds of turmoil going on down there, and I'm not sure just how Derek Dooley will handle it. The talent's down, probation is possibly on the horizon. Plus, UT could already be out of bowl contention by the time the game rolls around. I know we've heard this before, but if it doesn't happen this year, it may never happen.
would be the veteran Cat to blow up in 2009. What about 2010?
I'm going to go with another guy on the defensive side, Mychal Bailey. The fact that he came in and won the starter's job at safety in just three weeks after arriving from junior-college speaks volumes about how much the coaching staff trusts his talent. A sub 4.4 guy and a big hitter, he could immediately become a household name as he gets more comfortable throughout the season.
2. Mike Hartline won the starting job for the Louisville game, but
there has been no heaping praise for his play this summer. This makes me a
little nervous but the optimist in me hopes that it's the coaching staff's
effort to manage expectations. Have you heard anything that indicates that
2010 Hartline will be a step up from the 2008-2009 version?
Hartline has his critics, but I do believe he'll be better in 2010. Let's face it. He is what he is. He doesn't have a cannon for an arm, and he's not going to overwhelm you with his speed. He looked horrible against Florida and Alabama, but so did Arkansas' Ryan Mallett, who might end up being the No. 1 pick in next year's Draft. He has done some good things: the late comeback against Arkansas, MVP of the Liberty Bowl, the solid first half at South Carolina. Also, he's a fifth-year senior who understands the offense, and seems to have regained the respect and trust of his teammates after he made some critical comments after being benched two years ago. I think the offense will once again rely heavily on Randall Cobb and Derrick Locke. They just need Hartline to step up and make the throws when they need him to make them, and I think he can do that.
3. Hope springs eternal in the Commonwealth, and the schedule sets up
nicely, but looking at it empirically, this team has a lot of holes to fill
defensively. Outside of Travathan, Guy and Burden, where are you expecting
the production to come from?
They really need some guys to come through up front, particularly at tackle. Ricky Lumpkin needs to become a high-impact player, and it would be nice if they could get something out of Shane McCord. Donte Rumph should be an impact player once he shakes off the rust and gets into shape. I think DeQuin Evans is set for a solid year at end.
4. Setting aside K Joe Mansour, who is kind of a special case, what
true freshman do you see making an impact for this year's Cats, if any?
Interestingly enough, Mansour might not make as big an impact as originally thought, as Ryan Tydlacka is currently the starting placekicker. Jerrell Priester will definitely see time at corner, and Nermin Delic is in the rotation at end. While the Cats have plenty of depth at tailback, the coaches really like Raymond Sanders. Tyler Robinson is backing up Jordan Aumiller at tight end, and big things are expected of Rumph.
5. What are the biggest change you see thus far in the Joker era? Is
there any difference with how the team and staff interact with the media.
Understanding that nearly all the practices have been closed to the media,
do you have any feel for how the Cats might look different on the field this
year?
It's really hard to tell with practices being closed. You pretty much have to go on what you hear from the coaches and people who are close enough to the program to be able to go watch practice. But we won't really know for sure until the ball is kicked off. I've heard plenty of stories out of fall camp over the years that became myths once the lights came on. Not much has changed with Joker as far as the media goes. He's been accessible and friendly, although he doesn't reveal injury information quite to the extent that Rich Brooks did.
6. Do any streaks end this year?
I know it sounds crazy, but I think South Carolina and Tennessee both go down this year. Fact of the matter is, South Carolina has been no better than UK over the last 3-4 years overall; they've just managed to find ways to beat the Cats head-to-head. With the game being at home and UK coming so close in past years, I think they finally get it done. I know that Spurrier owns UK, but the Spurrier mystique is nowhere near what it used to be.
I also think this is the year they get Tennessee. There's all kinds of turmoil going on down there, and I'm not sure just how Derek Dooley will handle it. The talent's down, probation is possibly on the horizon. Plus, UT could already be out of bowl contention by the time the game rolls around. I know we've heard this before, but if it doesn't happen this year, it may never happen.
Monday, August 30, 2010
Projected SEC Standings/Bowl Projections
Here are unscientific and way too soon projected SEC standings, together with resulting predictions regarding bowl game slots.
SEC East
Florida
11-1, 7-1
Sugar
Georgia
8-4, 5-3
Outback
USC
7-5, 4-4
Gator
UK
7-5, 3-5
Music City
UT
5-7, 2-6
Vandy
1-11, 0-8
SEC West
Alabama
12-0, 8-0
National Campionship
Arkansas
9-3, 5-3
Capital One
LSU
8-4, 5-3
Cotton
Auburn
7-5, 3-5
Chick-Fil-A
Ole Miss
7-5, 3-5
Liberty
Mississippi State
5-7, 2-6
SEC East
Florida
11-1, 7-1
Sugar
Georgia
8-4, 5-3
Outback
USC
7-5, 4-4
Gator
UK
7-5, 3-5
Music City
UT
5-7, 2-6
Vandy
1-11, 0-8
SEC West
Alabama
12-0, 8-0
National Campionship
Arkansas
9-3, 5-3
Capital One
LSU
8-4, 5-3
Cotton
Auburn
7-5, 3-5
Chick-Fil-A
Ole Miss
7-5, 3-5
Liberty
Mississippi State
5-7, 2-6
Saturday, August 28, 2010
Keys to the season
As spring ball ended and the schedule started to shape up, I felt that the biggest key to the 2010 season for the Cats would be quarterback play. If Kentucky could mount an effective vertical attack on offense, the schedule set up for 8 wins. If it could not, we were looking at the potential end to our bowl streak.
With the quarterbacking decision made, at least in the short run, I am placing less emphasis on this now. I'll talk more about Joker's election to go with Mike Hartline in a separate post. For now, I think we are going to know what to expect from the quarterback position based on several things left unspoken in fall camp. There was no ringing endorsement, no claims of vast improvement and no easy decision. It is safe to say that the quarterback who started 14 games for the Wildcats in 2008 and 2009 is the one you'll see on the field against Louisville September 4.
So, what are the important variables:
With the quarterbacking decision made, at least in the short run, I am placing less emphasis on this now. I'll talk more about Joker's election to go with Mike Hartline in a separate post. For now, I think we are going to know what to expect from the quarterback position based on several things left unspoken in fall camp. There was no ringing endorsement, no claims of vast improvement and no easy decision. It is safe to say that the quarterback who started 14 games for the Wildcats in 2008 and 2009 is the one you'll see on the field against Louisville September 4.
So, what are the important variables:
- 1. The Defensive Tackle position has been as important to the 2006-2009 resurgence of the Kentucky program as anything. Past UK teams have lacked size up front and were constantly blown off the ball. Guys like Myron Pryor, Ventrell Jenkins and Corey Peters have helped to change all that. There looks to be a significant dropoff here. Ricky Lumpkin returns as a starter. There is some experience around him with Shane McCord and Mark Crawford, but not a lot. The Cats were really counting on Soph. Mister Cobble to come in and be the second starter, but he is ineligible. Can these guys, or surprise last minute recruit Elliot Porter step up? If not, our run defense may really struggle.
- 2. Once thought to be a team strength, the secondary is starting to look like a question mark. The Cats were set at corner with Randall Burden and Paul Warford, then Warford got bit by the academic bug. Once thought to be a sure fire star, UK is still wondering if the light is going to come on completely for FS Winston Guy. The good news, even with Warford out there is quality depth at corner, and several newcomers will challenge for time at safety.
- 3. The O-Line should have sufficient talent to replace four departing starters. With position battles still going on at Center and RT, how well they will gel as a unit is a great unknown. With what will likely be a heavy reliance on the running game, the big guys will be carrying this offense.
- 4. Injuries. As always, the Cats' big bugaboo. Can we remain healthy? Last year Cobb and Locke suffered dings and dents, but were largely able to remain on the field throughout the year. Had either or both of these guys gone down, it would have been a long season. That will also be the case this year. And as always, the Cats need to avoid a late season swoon that sometimes happens when our guys get ground down. The November 6 game against Charleston Southern and November 20th bye should help.
- 5. Joker. Phillips has served notice over the past 8 months that it isn't going to be business as usual at UK. What does he have in store for 2010? The new boss wasn't the same as the old boss in the preseason. Will there be new wrinkles on the field as well?
Season preview: Home stretch
After about a three week hiatus, I'm back to give the final segment of my season preview. If you haven't been keeping up, we've already looked at the Non conference games, a huge three game Keeneland style homestand, and a couple of early season road games. At this point, we have UK at 5-4, with wins over YouofL, WKU, Akron, Georgia and Charleston Southern as well as losses against Florida, Ole Miss, Auburn and South Carolina.
Today we look at three more winnable games which, along with the aforementioned laugher against Charleston Southern, make up the last third of the season.
UK visits Mississippi State on October 30th. The Bulldogs should be roughly 4-4 going into this game and still entertaining bowl hopes. Expectation are higher in Dan Mullins' second year. Fortunately, Anthony Dixon is now a San Francisco 49er. During the Cats' current bowl streak the road team is 4-0 in this game, though why is anyone's guess. (It should tell you something else about what Rich Brooks accomplished that his teams went to bowls in 2007 and 2009 despite losing to Mississippi State.) By this point in the season, UK should have settled into a rhythm with its quarterback situation, and the new defensive players given a chance to gel. I like us to win another road squeeker. UK 24 MSU 21
After the Charleston Southern game on November 6, Vandy comes back to town on November 13th. Cats fans will recall a rainy, freezing cold night at Commonwealth in 2008 when Vandy got bowl eligible by beating us 31-24. The Cats brainfarted their way to a 24-10 halftime deficit, then proceeded to piss away their comeback with stupid penalties, including a brain searing three roughing the punter fouls. Well, this isn't the 2008 Vandy team. Coming off a winless SEC campaign in 2009, Vandy figures to have trouble scoring points against SEC competition. Led by All-SEC LB Chris Marve and what is said to be a solid secondary, the D should be solid. Like last year, expect this game to be Cobb, Locke, Cobb, Locke. As always, this game will be chippy, but as in most season's past, we'll have more than enough for the 'Dores. UK 24 Vandy 14.
On paper, this is the year that we finally go down and take one from Tennessee. We've been so close so many times. Derrick Dooley said that on September 4th half of his starters will be seeing their first major college snap. Think about that for a minute. That is a program in shambles. When the Cats visit Neyland on November 27th, the Vols will likely be out of the bowl picture, playing for nothing. So how could I not pick our boys to win? As I said last year, too much pain has been inflicted for me to think rationally about this game. Even though hope springs eternal. . . .UT 28 UT 24.
So there you go, another 7-5, 3-5 season with a repeat trip to the Music City Bowl. If my season previews are starting to sound like a broken record, such is life. But there are a lot of games for the Cats to go out and get this year. Will start talking about how that might happen this week.
Today we look at three more winnable games which, along with the aforementioned laugher against Charleston Southern, make up the last third of the season.
UK visits Mississippi State on October 30th. The Bulldogs should be roughly 4-4 going into this game and still entertaining bowl hopes. Expectation are higher in Dan Mullins' second year. Fortunately, Anthony Dixon is now a San Francisco 49er. During the Cats' current bowl streak the road team is 4-0 in this game, though why is anyone's guess. (It should tell you something else about what Rich Brooks accomplished that his teams went to bowls in 2007 and 2009 despite losing to Mississippi State.) By this point in the season, UK should have settled into a rhythm with its quarterback situation, and the new defensive players given a chance to gel. I like us to win another road squeeker. UK 24 MSU 21
After the Charleston Southern game on November 6, Vandy comes back to town on November 13th. Cats fans will recall a rainy, freezing cold night at Commonwealth in 2008 when Vandy got bowl eligible by beating us 31-24. The Cats brainfarted their way to a 24-10 halftime deficit, then proceeded to piss away their comeback with stupid penalties, including a brain searing three roughing the punter fouls. Well, this isn't the 2008 Vandy team. Coming off a winless SEC campaign in 2009, Vandy figures to have trouble scoring points against SEC competition. Led by All-SEC LB Chris Marve and what is said to be a solid secondary, the D should be solid. Like last year, expect this game to be Cobb, Locke, Cobb, Locke. As always, this game will be chippy, but as in most season's past, we'll have more than enough for the 'Dores. UK 24 Vandy 14.
On paper, this is the year that we finally go down and take one from Tennessee. We've been so close so many times. Derrick Dooley said that on September 4th half of his starters will be seeing their first major college snap. Think about that for a minute. That is a program in shambles. When the Cats visit Neyland on November 27th, the Vols will likely be out of the bowl picture, playing for nothing. So how could I not pick our boys to win? As I said last year, too much pain has been inflicted for me to think rationally about this game. Even though hope springs eternal. . . .UT 28 UT 24.
So there you go, another 7-5, 3-5 season with a repeat trip to the Music City Bowl. If my season previews are starting to sound like a broken record, such is life. But there are a lot of games for the Cats to go out and get this year. Will start talking about how that might happen this week.
Tuesday, August 10, 2010
Early season road games
Today I continue our Pulp Fictionesque, non-linear look at UK's schedule and where it might lead us. If you aren't caught up, take a look at my most recent posts on the non-conference games as well as a critical three game October homestand. Of the seven games I've picked thus far, I have the Cats at 5-2, with home losses to South Carolina and Auburn.
After three non-conference games to start the schedule, the Cats will travel in back to back weeks with a Bataan death march down to Gainesville and a trip to Oxford.
If you are a college football fan, you have a good handle on the outlook as Kentucky heads to Florida on September 25th. The bad news? It is the only one on the schedule the Cats simply cannot win. Yes, Kentucky had some competitive games with Florida in the last decade, Tim Tebow is gone, our program is greatly improved and it has to happen sometime. Simply put, Florida will once again be putting too much talent on the field for our guys to compete.
There is good news. Assuming UK gets past Louisville, it will be almost assuredly be 3-0 going into this game, albeit without having played a top 60 division one program. This game comes along at a perfect time to allow us to not get big headed, and to see who we really are. A good showing here could set the tone for the rest of the season, not unlike our solid effort at Alabama in 2008. In any event, absent injury, there is no downside to having Florida on your schedule in the fourth game. That said, Florida 45 UK 14.
The addition of Jeremy Masoli adds intrigue to the Cats' matchup against the Ole Miss Rebels at The Grove. Ole Miss was looking ripe for the plucking with all of its offensive production graduated and having come off a mildly disappointing year. A year ago, the Rebs were a sexy top 10 pick and Jevan Snead considered a sure fire first rounder. Instead, they ended up with four losses and Snead is coaching the scout team at his old middle school. Houston "Left" Nutt is clearly feeling the heat, as he has brought in Masoli, who was dismissed from Oregon after continued legal troubles. The kid has a world of talent and is a hell of a leader. Nutt wouldn't take the heat for bringing him in only to have Masoli sit the bench. On defense, five of the front seven starters return, including All-SEC caliber DT Jerrell Powe and DE Kentrell Locket. I can see this being one game where UK has trouble moving the ball on the ground. As you know, that spells trouble. This could be a war of attrition, and it is imminently winnable. Still I see: Ole Miss 21 UK 17. On a side note, I really want to get this one, because I'll be following the Cats to Oxford this year. Holla.
After three non-conference games to start the schedule, the Cats will travel in back to back weeks with a Bataan death march down to Gainesville and a trip to Oxford.
If you are a college football fan, you have a good handle on the outlook as Kentucky heads to Florida on September 25th. The bad news? It is the only one on the schedule the Cats simply cannot win. Yes, Kentucky had some competitive games with Florida in the last decade, Tim Tebow is gone, our program is greatly improved and it has to happen sometime. Simply put, Florida will once again be putting too much talent on the field for our guys to compete.
There is good news. Assuming UK gets past Louisville, it will be almost assuredly be 3-0 going into this game, albeit without having played a top 60 division one program. This game comes along at a perfect time to allow us to not get big headed, and to see who we really are. A good showing here could set the tone for the rest of the season, not unlike our solid effort at Alabama in 2008. In any event, absent injury, there is no downside to having Florida on your schedule in the fourth game. That said, Florida 45 UK 14.
The addition of Jeremy Masoli adds intrigue to the Cats' matchup against the Ole Miss Rebels at The Grove. Ole Miss was looking ripe for the plucking with all of its offensive production graduated and having come off a mildly disappointing year. A year ago, the Rebs were a sexy top 10 pick and Jevan Snead considered a sure fire first rounder. Instead, they ended up with four losses and Snead is coaching the scout team at his old middle school. Houston "Left" Nutt is clearly feeling the heat, as he has brought in Masoli, who was dismissed from Oregon after continued legal troubles. The kid has a world of talent and is a hell of a leader. Nutt wouldn't take the heat for bringing him in only to have Masoli sit the bench. On defense, five of the front seven starters return, including All-SEC caliber DT Jerrell Powe and DE Kentrell Locket. I can see this being one game where UK has trouble moving the ball on the ground. As you know, that spells trouble. This could be a war of attrition, and it is imminently winnable. Still I see: Ole Miss 21 UK 17. On a side note, I really want to get this one, because I'll be following the Cats to Oxford this year. Holla.
Wednesday, August 4, 2010
Homestand
We continue our season preview/predictions with a look at what should be a critical three game homestand in October. Three games against beatable but capable SEC East teams. Three games that can make or break a season.
Last year it was back to back road weeks at USC and Auburn. With the way the schedule shaped up, my preseason hopes were pinned on getting a rip in those two games and starting the season 3-3. Of course, the rest was history. After a narrow, no Wildcat on the 2 point conversion, miss at Spurrier Tech, the Cats got touchdown runs from three different Quarterbacks and stole one at Auburn. We used that momentum to turn in a pretty good regular season for a team that had modest expectations.
This year, the Cats have three straight winnable but challenging tilts in games 6, 7 and 8. Dead in the heart of the season. Getting one win would be satisfying, two huge. Three and the season could be a magical one. The Cats beat two of these opponents, Georgia and Auburn, on their own turf last year. The third, USCJr., has had our goat of late, but always shows up with comparable talent. Anything is possible in this stretch. As true as that statement is, so it this one: If these games were played tomorrow, UK would not be favored in any one.
How might it shake out?
On October 9, The Fighting Chizeks come to town. Auburn could be flying high at this point of the season, 4-1 or 5-0 (the Cats should be no worse than 3-2). Auburn has to replace QB Chris Todd and 1,300 yard rusher Ben Tate, but should be in good hands with JC transfer Cam Newton and several talented backs. The whole O-Line and both starting wide receivers return. The Tigers' defense was not good last year, but with seven returning starters and Chizek's focus on that side of the ball, it should be much improved. I think UK has much more than a puncher's chance in this game. If our anointed quarterback has found a groove by then, we should score some points. Still, Auburn should be improved this year and frankly, I cannot see beating them back to back years. Aub 28-21.
October 16th bring the Gamecocks and a game that could be a battle for the upper eschelon of the SEC East. I'm still having Alshon Jeffrey flashbacks from last year's game. Our secondary was depleted, and the freshman wideout caught everything in site. I wonder if he is going to be the next in the Munnerlyn, Norwood line of Cats killers. In any event, I cannot predict a win against these guys again until one comes. I just can't. USC 21-13.
The homestand closes with the Georgia Bulldogs on October 23rd. The complexion of that game will be shaped somewhat by what happens up until that point. Georgia will be thin at the quarterback position and thick just about everywhere else on offense. Washaun Ealey, who was not technically a starter last year, will be one of the SEC's best backs. A.J. Green is one of the SEC's best receivers. The entire offensive line returns. As set as UGa appears on O, it is a mess defensively. Mark Richt blew out his whole defensive staff and will change schemes to a 3-4. Few starters return. Even though last year's defense was not good, it had several talented players who won't be back, most notably LB Rennie Curren. I like Kentucky in this game, especially if it is riding some momentum. The Dogs couldn't hold last year's team under 30 at home. Can they really do it now? UK 34-31.
Keep in mind these are some tough predictions. I would not be surprised if UK won or lost any one of these games. The season will be made or broken here.
Last year it was back to back road weeks at USC and Auburn. With the way the schedule shaped up, my preseason hopes were pinned on getting a rip in those two games and starting the season 3-3. Of course, the rest was history. After a narrow, no Wildcat on the 2 point conversion, miss at Spurrier Tech, the Cats got touchdown runs from three different Quarterbacks and stole one at Auburn. We used that momentum to turn in a pretty good regular season for a team that had modest expectations.
This year, the Cats have three straight winnable but challenging tilts in games 6, 7 and 8. Dead in the heart of the season. Getting one win would be satisfying, two huge. Three and the season could be a magical one. The Cats beat two of these opponents, Georgia and Auburn, on their own turf last year. The third, USCJr., has had our goat of late, but always shows up with comparable talent. Anything is possible in this stretch. As true as that statement is, so it this one: If these games were played tomorrow, UK would not be favored in any one.
How might it shake out?
On October 9, The Fighting Chizeks come to town. Auburn could be flying high at this point of the season, 4-1 or 5-0 (the Cats should be no worse than 3-2). Auburn has to replace QB Chris Todd and 1,300 yard rusher Ben Tate, but should be in good hands with JC transfer Cam Newton and several talented backs. The whole O-Line and both starting wide receivers return. The Tigers' defense was not good last year, but with seven returning starters and Chizek's focus on that side of the ball, it should be much improved. I think UK has much more than a puncher's chance in this game. If our anointed quarterback has found a groove by then, we should score some points. Still, Auburn should be improved this year and frankly, I cannot see beating them back to back years. Aub 28-21.
October 16th bring the Gamecocks and a game that could be a battle for the upper eschelon of the SEC East. I'm still having Alshon Jeffrey flashbacks from last year's game. Our secondary was depleted, and the freshman wideout caught everything in site. I wonder if he is going to be the next in the Munnerlyn, Norwood line of Cats killers. In any event, I cannot predict a win against these guys again until one comes. I just can't. USC 21-13.
The homestand closes with the Georgia Bulldogs on October 23rd. The complexion of that game will be shaped somewhat by what happens up until that point. Georgia will be thin at the quarterback position and thick just about everywhere else on offense. Washaun Ealey, who was not technically a starter last year, will be one of the SEC's best backs. A.J. Green is one of the SEC's best receivers. The entire offensive line returns. As set as UGa appears on O, it is a mess defensively. Mark Richt blew out his whole defensive staff and will change schemes to a 3-4. Few starters return. Even though last year's defense was not good, it had several talented players who won't be back, most notably LB Rennie Curren. I like Kentucky in this game, especially if it is riding some momentum. The Dogs couldn't hold last year's team under 30 at home. Can they really do it now? UK 34-31.
Keep in mind these are some tough predictions. I would not be surprised if UK won or lost any one of these games. The season will be made or broken here.
Friday, July 30, 2010
Season preview: Non conference games
For this year's game by game preview, we'll look at the regular season in semi-chronological sections. UK starts with three straight non-conference games, hits Florida and Ole Miss, then slides into a crucial three game homestand against beatable conference foes. After a trip to Starkville, Charleston Southern and Vandy visit. Then, of course, the Cats close out the year in Knoxville. We'll start with a look at the non-conference schedule, including the late season game.
On September 4, at 3:30pm the Cats take on what should be a slightly overmatched Louisville squad at a recently expanded Papa John's Stadium. Two years ago we walked into the pizza bowl and rode a surging defense to an easy 27-2 victory. Last year was a different story, when the homestanding Cats needed a Whodini act by Randall Cobb, a 100 Yard KO return by Derrick Locke and a serious miscue on a kick return to hold off the Cards 31-27.
The 2009 game had a pall over it which will continue this year; if the Cats are going to go bowling, they cannot afford to lose the game. The Cards are too weak, and there aren't enough other wins on the schedule.
Former 1000 yard rusher Victor Anderson missed the end of last season with a broken clavicle and is listed behind Bilal Powell on the Cards' depth chart. On the plus side, the Cards return four starters on the offensive line and have a weapon in senior mighty mite WR Doug Beamont. It is not yet clear who will be under center, but Adam Froman, a 6-4 senior, is your leader in the clubhouse.
The Cards defense returns little from a unit that simply wasn't very good.
I'd look for this game to be high scoring. U of L should come out with guns blazing and will be testing an inexperienced UK linebacking crew. By the same token, I'd be shocked if the Cards can contain Cobb, Locke and Chris Matthews. We are on the road, but we will have a better squad. In the end Kentucky spoils Charlie Strong's debut 34-21.
On September 11th, WKU comes to town. The game will be televised on College Sports South at 7:30pm. I have a soft spot for the Hilltoppers. Many friends either went there or have children going there. Western has a strong Henry Clay connection with WR Clark Jeter, LB Mike Federspiel and FB Rod Johnson all on the squad. Western will come into this game fresh off a trip to Nebraska, playing "the" Nebraska, so I think they'll know what to expect in this game and not be overwhelmed. That said, WKU is still looking for its footing in Division 1A and is one of its worst programs, not having won a game last year. If this game is competitive, then the Cats are in deep trouble for the rest of the year. UK 31-WKU 7.
UK isn't going to strain itself much in the early going. Akron visits on September 18th. The game will be at 7:00pm and televised on Fox Sports South. Akron was a 3-9 MAC team last year, finishing ahead of only Miami (OH) in the MAC east. The Zips return starting QB Patrick Nicely, as well as their two leading rushers. Nicely is not much of a running threat (42 carries for 46 years, 0TD in 2009) which is always nice to hear if you are a Cats fans in a game like this. Still, I see the Zips being more game than the 'Toppers, and other than Louisville, this is the non-conference game I'm most concerned with. UK 35 Akron 21.
The Cats final game outside the SEC comes November 6th at home against FCS foe Charleston Southern. To give you an idea, Charleston Southern plays in a stadium without a field house with locker rooms so far away that occasionally opposing teams will sit under a tent at halftime instead of returning. Again, there is no reason to think this game will be competitive. It will be important, though, as it begins and end of season stretch that includes a home game against Vandy and ends at Tennessee. The Cats need to play hard, get the starters off the field and win convincingly. UK 42 CSU 3.
On September 4, at 3:30pm the Cats take on what should be a slightly overmatched Louisville squad at a recently expanded Papa John's Stadium. Two years ago we walked into the pizza bowl and rode a surging defense to an easy 27-2 victory. Last year was a different story, when the homestanding Cats needed a Whodini act by Randall Cobb, a 100 Yard KO return by Derrick Locke and a serious miscue on a kick return to hold off the Cards 31-27.
The 2009 game had a pall over it which will continue this year; if the Cats are going to go bowling, they cannot afford to lose the game. The Cards are too weak, and there aren't enough other wins on the schedule.
Former 1000 yard rusher Victor Anderson missed the end of last season with a broken clavicle and is listed behind Bilal Powell on the Cards' depth chart. On the plus side, the Cards return four starters on the offensive line and have a weapon in senior mighty mite WR Doug Beamont. It is not yet clear who will be under center, but Adam Froman, a 6-4 senior, is your leader in the clubhouse.
The Cards defense returns little from a unit that simply wasn't very good.
I'd look for this game to be high scoring. U of L should come out with guns blazing and will be testing an inexperienced UK linebacking crew. By the same token, I'd be shocked if the Cards can contain Cobb, Locke and Chris Matthews. We are on the road, but we will have a better squad. In the end Kentucky spoils Charlie Strong's debut 34-21.
On September 11th, WKU comes to town. The game will be televised on College Sports South at 7:30pm. I have a soft spot for the Hilltoppers. Many friends either went there or have children going there. Western has a strong Henry Clay connection with WR Clark Jeter, LB Mike Federspiel and FB Rod Johnson all on the squad. Western will come into this game fresh off a trip to Nebraska, playing "the" Nebraska, so I think they'll know what to expect in this game and not be overwhelmed. That said, WKU is still looking for its footing in Division 1A and is one of its worst programs, not having won a game last year. If this game is competitive, then the Cats are in deep trouble for the rest of the year. UK 31-WKU 7.
UK isn't going to strain itself much in the early going. Akron visits on September 18th. The game will be at 7:00pm and televised on Fox Sports South. Akron was a 3-9 MAC team last year, finishing ahead of only Miami (OH) in the MAC east. The Zips return starting QB Patrick Nicely, as well as their two leading rushers. Nicely is not much of a running threat (42 carries for 46 years, 0TD in 2009) which is always nice to hear if you are a Cats fans in a game like this. Still, I see the Zips being more game than the 'Toppers, and other than Louisville, this is the non-conference game I'm most concerned with. UK 35 Akron 21.
The Cats final game outside the SEC comes November 6th at home against FCS foe Charleston Southern. To give you an idea, Charleston Southern plays in a stadium without a field house with locker rooms so far away that occasionally opposing teams will sit under a tent at halftime instead of returning. Again, there is no reason to think this game will be competitive. It will be important, though, as it begins and end of season stretch that includes a home game against Vandy and ends at Tennessee. The Cats need to play hard, get the starters off the field and win convincingly. UK 42 CSU 3.
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