Season preview: Non conference games

For this year's game by game preview, we'll look at the regular season in semi-chronological sections. UK starts with three straight non-conference games, hits Florida and Ole Miss, then slides into a crucial three game homestand against beatable conference foes. After a trip to Starkville, Charleston Southern and Vandy visit. Then, of course, the Cats close out the year in Knoxville. We'll start with a look at the non-conference schedule, including the late season game.

On September 4, at 3:30pm the Cats take on what should be a slightly overmatched Louisville squad at a recently expanded Papa John's Stadium. Two years ago we walked into the pizza bowl and rode a surging defense to an easy 27-2 victory. Last year was a different story, when the homestanding Cats needed a Whodini act by Randall Cobb, a 100 Yard KO return by Derrick Locke and a serious miscue on a kick return to hold off the Cards 31-27.
The 2009 game had a pall over it which will continue this year; if the Cats are going to go bowling, they cannot afford to lose the game. The Cards are too weak, and there aren't enough other wins on the schedule.
Former 1000 yard rusher Victor Anderson missed the end of last season with a broken clavicle and is listed behind Bilal Powell on the Cards' depth chart. On the plus side, the Cards return four starters on the offensive line and have a weapon in senior mighty mite WR Doug Beamont. It is not yet clear who will be under center, but Adam Froman, a 6-4 senior, is your leader in the clubhouse.
The Cards defense returns little from a unit that simply wasn't very good.
I'd look for this game to be high scoring. U of L should come out with guns blazing and will be testing an inexperienced UK linebacking crew. By the same token, I'd be shocked if the Cards can contain Cobb, Locke and Chris Matthews. We are on the road, but we will have a better squad. In the end Kentucky spoils Charlie Strong's debut 34-21.

On September 11th, WKU comes to town. The game will be televised on College Sports South at 7:30pm. I have a soft spot for the Hilltoppers. Many friends either went there or have children going there. Western has a strong Henry Clay connection with WR Clark Jeter, LB Mike Federspiel and FB Rod Johnson all on the squad. Western will come into this game fresh off a trip to Nebraska, playing "the" Nebraska, so I think they'll know what to expect in this game and not be overwhelmed. That said, WKU is still looking for its footing in Division 1A and is one of its worst programs, not having won a game last year. If this game is competitive, then the Cats are in deep trouble for the rest of the year. UK 31-WKU 7.

UK isn't going to strain itself much in the early going. Akron visits on September 18th. The game will be at 7:00pm and televised on Fox Sports South. Akron was a 3-9 MAC team last year, finishing ahead of only Miami (OH) in the MAC east. The Zips return starting QB Patrick Nicely, as well as their two leading rushers. Nicely is not much of a running threat (42 carries for 46 years, 0TD in 2009) which is always nice to hear if you are a Cats fans in a game like this. Still, I see the Zips being more game than the 'Toppers, and other than Louisville, this is the non-conference game I'm most concerned with. UK 35 Akron 21.

The Cats final game outside the SEC comes November 6th at home against FCS foe Charleston Southern. To give you an idea, Charleston Southern plays in a stadium without a field house with locker rooms so far away that occasionally opposing teams will sit under a tent at halftime instead of returning. Again, there is no reason to think this game will be competitive. It will be important, though, as it begins and end of season stretch that includes a home game against Vandy and ends at Tennessee. The Cats need to play hard, get the starters off the field and win convincingly. UK 42 CSU 3.

Second Annual Mad Men Quotes Season Preview

Summer television sucks. I don't get into Who Wants to Look Like a Jackass and Who Wants to Marry a Jackass shows, so that pretty well relegates me to reruns or covering something on DVD I haven't seen before. This summer, my wife and I dove into Veronica Mars, a show that survived three seasons on the WB and was cancelled. Cancelled shows fall into two categories. 95% are cancelled because they suck in execution or were terrible ideas to begin with. No one was ever going to watch Cop Rock or Cavemen. The other 5% are cancelled because people who watch TV are idiots. Put Veronica Mars in the "Arrested Development 5%" camp. Smart writing, great characters, appealing cast, interesting feel and (take my man card now) one of the better romance stories ever played out on television. Just a heck of a show on every level. Watching the show end on DVD was tough because the creators were clearly not sure whether the show would end when it wrapped. The finale was full of hedging. While we are on this tangent, Logan Echolls (played by Jason Dohring, who'd be a big star if I ran Hollywood) is in Hawkeye Pierce, Tim Riggins territory as all-time favorite TV character.



But I'm not here today to talk about Veronica. Tonight, as many of you are keenly aware, is the premiere of season 4 of Mad Men. Folks are pumped for Mad Men not only because its amazing, but because we've been watching bullshit for the last two months. (Well, you've been watching bullshit, I've been watching a show about a 17 year old girl who solves high school mysteries that didn't get picked up for a fourth season on the CW). The folks at AMC know we are starving for something good on the tube, which makes the mid-summer release a brilliant move.



As ready as I am to watch Don Draper and Co. tonight, I'm also in the mood to kick start UK Football Fan and get ready for football season. So, for the second year in a row, lets get a little season preview going, Mad Men style. This isn't my whole season preview, but its a good way to kick things off, so to speak.



"I want a Hilton on the moon, that's where we're headed."



Operation Win has gotten off with a bang. Joker has put his stamp on the program in a couple of ways. First, he has served notice that this is his team. He immediately let go of assistants Rick Petri and Jimmy Heggins and replaced them with guys who he thought would be better recruiters. These guys weren't considered bad coaches, and hadn't been on hot seat. No matter, Joker wanted what he wanted, and didn't worry about stepping on toes to get it. For reasons unknown, Phillips waited until June to let special teams assistant Steve Ortmeyer go, then replaced him with Greg Nord, a former UofL recruiting coordinator (when they were damned good). Secondly, Joker's emphasis on recruiting has already borne fruit. UK sits with a top 25 class for 2011, including Four-Star DB Glen Faulkner and several Three-Star players. As always, the challenge will be to keep those guys solid and have them sign the dotted line next year, but so far, so good.



The only big setback this offseason appears to be in the classroom. Starting corner Paul Warford will not play for the Wildcats again, and DT Mister Cobble's eligibility is also in jeopardy. Still, operation win seems to be in full effect.



"I hate to break it to you, but there is no big lie, there is no system, the universe is indifferent"


Who will quarterback the Cats this year? Joker has taken the bold and correct stand by saying that whoever wins the competition will be the guy who can make plays, not simply manage the game. In Randall Cobb, Chris Matthews and Larod King, UK has its best receivers since the Burton, Johnson, Tamme, Lyons days. This offense needs to carry the team, and it has to throw to do that. I am indifferent to who quarterbacks this team. Except in spurts, Hartline has never impressed me. Newton, who is a great kid, did a good job of not losing games last year. But the offense was so limited with him out there, I have to wonder whether he can ever be that guy. Mossakowski is the great unknown, but if the Cats go with him they'll be passing over guys with a lot of experience for someone who has none.



What I am not indifferent to is this: Kentucky can win 8 or 9 games this year if their quarterback can consistently complete passes downfield and avoid costly mistakes. If we are dinking and dunking and deliberatly going three and out to avoid turning the ball over, like we did late last year, this is a six win team. Hopefully.



"If you don't like whats being said, just change the conversation"

Don't believe what you read in any national source, the Cats' Offensive Line is going to be just fine this year. Technically, Stuart Hines is the only returning starter, but that is misleading. A number of guys have played a lot of football for us over the years. I wanted to talk about this in more detail, but Duncan Cavanah at Kentucky Sports Radio has already done the legwork and since he writes better than I do, there isn't much point in repeating it. His main points are these: Cats linemen have collectively played in 156 games and started 31, converted DE Chandler Burdon could be a stud at Left Tackle and the right side of our line will be huge and skilled. I really believe that the o-line will be a strength of the team. There is depth at every position, so if a guy isn't producing, he'll get yanked. I want to change the conversation and say this: I'll be disappointed if the offensive line skips a beat this year.

"I didn't get where I am by dwelling on the past."

While I realize we will have Tennessee on the road, they are ripe for the plucking. Their leading returning rusher gained 94 yards last year. No one on the roster has thrown a college pass. Eric Berry isn't walking through that door. We might be playing for something that night while they might not. Hell, we were picked to finish ahead of them in the SEC East this year. None of that matters, though, if the Cats cannot put the past behind them and win this game.

"I'm Peggy Olson and I want to smoke some marijuana"

I'll never understand why, with games on the line at USC (2 point conversion attempt) and against UT (3rd and goal at the 3, TD wins game, entire stadium knows we cannot win in overtime), we didn't run plays out of the Wildcat last year. While I expect the Cats' offense to be improved overall, I'll be looking for the Wildcat again in these situations, and answers if we fail using the conventional offense.

"I keep going a lot of places and ending up somewhere I've already been."

Subject to what I've already said about the quarterback situation, and with the understanding that the schedule set-up is nearly ideal, I cannot shake the belief that this is a 6 or 7 win team, much as it has been the last three years. I see wins against WKU, Akron and Charleston Southern. We will get 2 of 3 from Louisville, Mississippi State and Vandy. A three week homestand against Auburn, USC and Georgia will yield one win. That is six wins with away games against Ole Miss and UT unaccounted for. More on that to come.

Ortmayer out, Nord in.

News comes today that Steve Ortmayer is out as UK's special teams and tight ends coach. He'll be replaced by former UK and U of L assistant Greg Nord, who had just joined Ron Zook's staff at Illinois in December. Nord was a casualty when Kragthorpe was blown out, but he had been on the staff there for 15 years. As recruiting coordinator, he obviously enjoyed a fair amount of success. Nord was an assistant at Kentucky under Jerry Claiborne.

On this site, I've been openly critical of the job Ortmayer did with the special teams. My thinking was this: Since it has little choice if it wants to compete in the SEC, UK regularly uses its front line players on special teams. We've consistently failed to execute simple blocking schemes on punts and kicks over the past few years. Since the same kids who do everything else are involved, that has to come back to coaching. It is too painful to recount all the times this has killed us.

True, we have had some success during Ortmeyer's tenure both returning and blocking kicks. I believe, though, that this is also a function of having the team's best players performing these tasks. Maybe that isn't fair, but you cannot draw up Derrick Locke's speed on a chalkboard, that's for sure.

I don't have an opinion on Nord. Most people seem to see him as an upgrade. He has a good pedigree. Hopefully he'll help recruiting in Louisville, which will be prime battleground for the program in the near future. At the end, I just feel like this was a move Joker had to make if he was going to put his stamp on the program.

The most curious thing about the move is the timing. Presumably, Joker could have fired Ortmayer when he let Jimmy Heggins and Rick Petri go at the beginning of the year. Maybe Nord's situation changed and he became available. My best guess is that Joker did not want to risk alienating Rich Brooks right after he took the job, and simply bided his time. After all, Brooks and Ortmayer had been together a while and many expected him to step down voluntarily when Brooks left.

Finally, say this for Joker. In his first six months at the helm, he landed three desired position coaches who made arguably lateral moves (from Arkansas, Mississippi State and Illinois) to be here. He has landed a fourth guy from a lower D-1 school (Tee Martin) who may the the best hire of all. He means business, and I like that.