Projected SEC Standings/Bowl Projections

Here are unscientific and way too soon projected SEC standings, together with resulting predictions regarding bowl game slots.



SEC East



Florida
11-1, 7-1
Sugar


Georgia
8-4, 5-3
Outback


USC
7-5, 4-4
Gator


UK
7-5, 3-5
Music City


UT
5-7, 2-6


Vandy
1-11, 0-8





SEC West


Alabama
12-0, 8-0
National Campionship


Arkansas
9-3, 5-3
Capital One


LSU
8-4, 5-3
Cotton


Auburn
7-5, 3-5
Chick-Fil-A


Ole Miss
7-5, 3-5
Liberty


Mississippi State
5-7, 2-6

Keys to the season

As spring ball ended and the schedule started to shape up, I felt that the biggest key to the 2010 season for the Cats would be quarterback play. If Kentucky could mount an effective vertical attack on offense, the schedule set up for 8 wins. If it could not, we were looking at the potential end to our bowl streak.

With the quarterbacking decision made, at least in the short run, I am placing less emphasis on this now. I'll talk more about Joker's election to go with Mike Hartline in a separate post. For now, I think we are going to know what to expect from the quarterback position based on several things left unspoken in fall camp. There was no ringing endorsement, no claims of vast improvement and no easy decision. It is safe to say that the quarterback who started 14 games for the Wildcats in 2008 and 2009 is the one you'll see on the field against Louisville September 4.

So, what are the important variables:

• 1. The Defensive Tackle position has been as important to the 2006-2009 resurgence of the Kentucky program as anything. Past UK teams have lacked size up front and were constantly blown off the ball. Guys like Myron Pryor, Ventrell Jenkins and Corey Peters have helped to change all that. There looks to be a significant dropoff here. Ricky Lumpkin returns as a starter. There is some experience around him with Shane McCord and Mark Crawford, but not a lot. The Cats were really counting on Soph. Mister Cobble to come in and be the second starter, but he is ineligible. Can these guys, or surprise last minute recruit Elliot Porter step up? If not, our run defense may really struggle.
• 2. Once thought to be a team strength, the secondary is starting to look like a question mark. The Cats were set at corner with Randall Burden and Paul Warford, then Warford got bit by the academic bug. Once thought to be a sure fire star, UK is still wondering if the light is going to come on completely for FS Winston Guy. The good news, even with Warford out there is quality depth at corner, and several newcomers will challenge for time at safety.
• 3. The O-Line should have sufficient talent to replace four departing starters. With position battles still going on at Center and RT, how well they will gel as a unit is a great unknown. With what will likely be a heavy reliance on the running game, the big guys will be carrying this offense.
• 4. Injuries. As always, the Cats' big bugaboo. Can we remain healthy? Last year Cobb and Locke suffered dings and dents, but were largely able to remain on the field throughout the year. Had either or both of these guys gone down, it would have been a long season. That will also be the case this year. And as always, the Cats need to avoid a late season swoon that sometimes happens when our guys get ground down. The November 6 game against Charleston Southern and November 20th bye should help.
• 5. Joker. Phillips has served notice over the past 8 months that it isn't going to be business as usual at UK. What does he have in store for 2010? The new boss wasn't the same as the old boss in the preseason. Will there be new wrinkles on the field as well?

Season preview: Home stretch

After about a three week hiatus, I'm back to give the final segment of my season preview. If you haven't been keeping up, we've already looked at the Non conference games, a huge three game Keeneland style homestand, and a couple of early season road games. At this point, we have UK at 5-4, with wins over YouofL, WKU, Akron, Georgia and Charleston Southern as well as losses against Florida, Ole Miss, Auburn and South Carolina.

Today we look at three more winnable games which, along with the aforementioned laugher against Charleston Southern, make up the last third of the season.

UK visits Mississippi State on October 30th. The Bulldogs should be roughly 4-4 going into this game and still entertaining bowl hopes. Expectation are higher in Dan Mullins' second year. Fortunately, Anthony Dixon is now a San Francisco 49er. During the Cats' current bowl streak the road team is 4-0 in this game, though why is anyone's guess. (It should tell you something else about what Rich Brooks accomplished that his teams went to bowls in 2007 and 2009 despite losing to Mississippi State.) By this point in the season, UK should have settled into a rhythm with its quarterback situation, and the new defensive players given a chance to gel. I like us to win another road squeeker. UK 24 MSU 21

After the Charleston Southern game on November 6, Vandy comes back to town on November 13th. Cats fans will recall a rainy, freezing cold night at Commonwealth in 2008 when Vandy got bowl eligible by beating us 31-24. The Cats brainfarted their way to a 24-10 halftime deficit, then proceeded to piss away their comeback with stupid penalties, including a brain searing three roughing the punter fouls. Well, this isn't the 2008 Vandy team. Coming off a winless SEC campaign in 2009, Vandy figures to have trouble scoring points against SEC competition. Led by All-SEC LB Chris Marve and what is said to be a solid secondary, the D should be solid. Like last year, expect this game to be Cobb, Locke, Cobb, Locke. As always, this game will be chippy, but as in most season's past, we'll have more than enough for the 'Dores. UK 24 Vandy 14.

On paper, this is the year that we finally go down and take one from Tennessee. We've been so close so many times. Derrick Dooley said that on September 4th half of his starters will be seeing their first major college snap. Think about that for a minute. That is a program in shambles. When the Cats visit Neyland on November 27th, the Vols will likely be out of the bowl picture, playing for nothing. So how could I not pick our boys to win? As I said last year, too much pain has been inflicted for me to think rationally about this game. Even though hope springs eternal. . . .UT 28 UT 24.

So there you go, another 7-5, 3-5 season with a repeat trip to the Music City Bowl. If my season previews are starting to sound like a broken record, such is life. But there are a lot of games for the Cats to go out and get this year. Will start talking about how that might happen this week.

Early season road games

Today I continue our Pulp Fictionesque, non-linear look at UK's schedule and where it might lead us. If you aren't caught up, take a look at my most recent posts on the non-conference games as well as a critical three game October homestand. Of the seven games I've picked thus far, I have the Cats at 5-2, with home losses to South Carolina and Auburn.

After three non-conference games to start the schedule, the Cats will travel in back to back weeks with a Bataan death march down to Gainesville and a trip to Oxford.

If you are a college football fan, you have a good handle on the outlook as Kentucky heads to Florida on September 25th. The bad news? It is the only one on the schedule the Cats simply cannot win. Yes, Kentucky had some competitive games with Florida in the last decade, Tim Tebow is gone, our program is greatly improved and it has to happen sometime. Simply put, Florida will once again be putting too much talent on the field for our guys to compete.

There is good news. Assuming UK gets past Louisville, it will be almost assuredly be 3-0 going into this game, albeit without having played a top 60 division one program. This game comes along at a perfect time to allow us to not get big headed, and to see who we really are. A good showing here could set the tone for the rest of the season, not unlike our solid effort at Alabama in 2008. In any event, absent injury, there is no downside to having Florida on your schedule in the fourth game. That said, Florida 45 UK 14.

The addition of Jeremy Masoli adds intrigue to the Cats' matchup against the Ole Miss Rebels at The Grove. Ole Miss was looking ripe for the plucking with all of its offensive production graduated and having come off a mildly disappointing year. A year ago, the Rebs were a sexy top 10 pick and Jevan Snead considered a sure fire first rounder. Instead, they ended up with four losses and Snead is coaching the scout team at his old middle school. Houston "Left" Nutt is clearly feeling the heat, as he has brought in Masoli, who was dismissed from Oregon after continued legal troubles. The kid has a world of talent and is a hell of a leader. Nutt wouldn't take the heat for bringing him in only to have Masoli sit the bench. On defense, five of the front seven starters return, including All-SEC caliber DT Jerrell Powe and DE Kentrell Locket. I can see this being one game where UK has trouble moving the ball on the ground. As you know, that spells trouble. This could be a war of attrition, and it is imminently winnable. Still I see: Ole Miss 21 UK 17. On a side note, I really want to get this one, because I'll be following the Cats to Oxford this year. Holla.

Homestand

We continue our season preview/predictions with a look at what should be a critical three game homestand in October. Three games against beatable but capable SEC East teams. Three games that can make or break a season.

Last year it was back to back road weeks at USC and Auburn. With the way the schedule shaped up, my preseason hopes were pinned on getting a rip in those two games and starting the season 3-3. Of course, the rest was history. After a narrow, no Wildcat on the 2 point conversion, miss at Spurrier Tech, the Cats got touchdown runs from three different Quarterbacks and stole one at Auburn. We used that momentum to turn in a pretty good regular season for a team that had modest expectations.

This year, the Cats have three straight winnable but challenging tilts in games 6, 7 and 8. Dead in the heart of the season. Getting one win would be satisfying, two huge. Three and the season could be a magical one. The Cats beat two of these opponents, Georgia and Auburn, on their own turf last year. The third, USCJr., has had our goat of late, but always shows up with comparable talent. Anything is possible in this stretch. As true as that statement is, so it this one: If these games were played tomorrow, UK would not be favored in any one.

How might it shake out?

On October 9, The Fighting Chizeks come to town. Auburn could be flying high at this point of the season, 4-1 or 5-0 (the Cats should be no worse than 3-2). Auburn has to replace QB Chris Todd and 1,300 yard rusher Ben Tate, but should be in good hands with JC transfer Cam Newton and several talented backs. The whole O-Line and both starting wide receivers return. The Tigers' defense was not good last year, but with seven returning starters and Chizek's focus on that side of the ball, it should be much improved. I think UK has much more than a puncher's chance in this game. If our anointed quarterback has found a groove by then, we should score some points. Still, Auburn should be improved this year and frankly, I cannot see beating them back to back years. Aub 28-21.

October 16th bring the Gamecocks and a game that could be a battle for the upper eschelon of the SEC East. I'm still having Alshon Jeffrey flashbacks from last year's game. Our secondary was depleted, and the freshman wideout caught everything in site. I wonder if he is going to be the next in the Munnerlyn, Norwood line of Cats killers. In any event, I cannot predict a win against these guys again until one comes. I just can't. USC 21-13.

The homestand closes with the Georgia Bulldogs on October 23rd. The complexion of that game will be shaped somewhat by what happens up until that point. Georgia will be thin at the quarterback position and thick just about everywhere else on offense. Washaun Ealey, who was not technically a starter last year, will be one of the SEC's best backs. A.J. Green is one of the SEC's best receivers. The entire offensive line returns. As set as UGa appears on O, it is a mess defensively. Mark Richt blew out his whole defensive staff and will change schemes to a 3-4. Few starters return. Even though last year's defense was not good, it had several talented players who won't be back, most notably LB Rennie Curren. I like Kentucky in this game, especially if it is riding some momentum. The Dogs couldn't hold last year's team under 30 at home. Can they really do it now? UK 34-31.

Keep in mind these are some tough predictions. I would not be surprised if UK won or lost any one of these games. The season will be made or broken here.

Season preview: Non conference games

For this year's game by game preview, we'll look at the regular season in semi-chronological sections. UK starts with three straight non-conference games, hits Florida and Ole Miss, then slides into a crucial three game homestand against beatable conference foes. After a trip to Starkville, Charleston Southern and Vandy visit. Then, of course, the Cats close out the year in Knoxville. We'll start with a look at the non-conference schedule, including the late season game.

On September 4, at 3:30pm the Cats take on what should be a slightly overmatched Louisville squad at a recently expanded Papa John's Stadium. Two years ago we walked into the pizza bowl and rode a surging defense to an easy 27-2 victory. Last year was a different story, when the homestanding Cats needed a Whodini act by Randall Cobb, a 100 Yard KO return by Derrick Locke and a serious miscue on a kick return to hold off the Cards 31-27.
The 2009 game had a pall over it which will continue this year; if the Cats are going to go bowling, they cannot afford to lose the game. The Cards are too weak, and there aren't enough other wins on the schedule.
Former 1000 yard rusher Victor Anderson missed the end of last season with a broken clavicle and is listed behind Bilal Powell on the Cards' depth chart. On the plus side, the Cards return four starters on the offensive line and have a weapon in senior mighty mite WR Doug Beamont. It is not yet clear who will be under center, but Adam Froman, a 6-4 senior, is your leader in the clubhouse.
The Cards defense returns little from a unit that simply wasn't very good.
I'd look for this game to be high scoring. U of L should come out with guns blazing and will be testing an inexperienced UK linebacking crew. By the same token, I'd be shocked if the Cards can contain Cobb, Locke and Chris Matthews. We are on the road, but we will have a better squad. In the end Kentucky spoils Charlie Strong's debut 34-21.

On September 11th, WKU comes to town. The game will be televised on College Sports South at 7:30pm. I have a soft spot for the Hilltoppers. Many friends either went there or have children going there. Western has a strong Henry Clay connection with WR Clark Jeter, LB Mike Federspiel and FB Rod Johnson all on the squad. Western will come into this game fresh off a trip to Nebraska, playing "the" Nebraska, so I think they'll know what to expect in this game and not be overwhelmed. That said, WKU is still looking for its footing in Division 1A and is one of its worst programs, not having won a game last year. If this game is competitive, then the Cats are in deep trouble for the rest of the year. UK 31-WKU 7.

UK isn't going to strain itself much in the early going. Akron visits on September 18th. The game will be at 7:00pm and televised on Fox Sports South. Akron was a 3-9 MAC team last year, finishing ahead of only Miami (OH) in the MAC east. The Zips return starting QB Patrick Nicely, as well as their two leading rushers. Nicely is not much of a running threat (42 carries for 46 years, 0TD in 2009) which is always nice to hear if you are a Cats fans in a game like this. Still, I see the Zips being more game than the 'Toppers, and other than Louisville, this is the non-conference game I'm most concerned with. UK 35 Akron 21.

The Cats final game outside the SEC comes November 6th at home against FCS foe Charleston Southern. To give you an idea, Charleston Southern plays in a stadium without a field house with locker rooms so far away that occasionally opposing teams will sit under a tent at halftime instead of returning. Again, there is no reason to think this game will be competitive. It will be important, though, as it begins and end of season stretch that includes a home game against Vandy and ends at Tennessee. The Cats need to play hard, get the starters off the field and win convincingly. UK 42 CSU 3.

Second Annual Mad Men Quotes Season Preview

Summer television sucks. I don't get into Who Wants to Look Like a Jackass and Who Wants to Marry a Jackass shows, so that pretty well relegates me to reruns or covering something on DVD I haven't seen before. This summer, my wife and I dove into Veronica Mars, a show that survived three seasons on the WB and was cancelled. Cancelled shows fall into two categories. 95% are cancelled because they suck in execution or were terrible ideas to begin with. No one was ever going to watch Cop Rock or Cavemen. The other 5% are cancelled because people who watch TV are idiots. Put Veronica Mars in the "Arrested Development 5%" camp. Smart writing, great characters, appealing cast, interesting feel and (take my man card now) one of the better romance stories ever played out on television. Just a heck of a show on every level. Watching the show end on DVD was tough because the creators were clearly not sure whether the show would end when it wrapped. The finale was full of hedging. While we are on this tangent, Logan Echolls (played by Jason Dohring, who'd be a big star if I ran Hollywood) is in Hawkeye Pierce, Tim Riggins territory as all-time favorite TV character.



But I'm not here today to talk about Veronica. Tonight, as many of you are keenly aware, is the premiere of season 4 of Mad Men. Folks are pumped for Mad Men not only because its amazing, but because we've been watching bullshit for the last two months. (Well, you've been watching bullshit, I've been watching a show about a 17 year old girl who solves high school mysteries that didn't get picked up for a fourth season on the CW). The folks at AMC know we are starving for something good on the tube, which makes the mid-summer release a brilliant move.



As ready as I am to watch Don Draper and Co. tonight, I'm also in the mood to kick start UK Football Fan and get ready for football season. So, for the second year in a row, lets get a little season preview going, Mad Men style. This isn't my whole season preview, but its a good way to kick things off, so to speak.



"I want a Hilton on the moon, that's where we're headed."



Operation Win has gotten off with a bang. Joker has put his stamp on the program in a couple of ways. First, he has served notice that this is his team. He immediately let go of assistants Rick Petri and Jimmy Heggins and replaced them with guys who he thought would be better recruiters. These guys weren't considered bad coaches, and hadn't been on hot seat. No matter, Joker wanted what he wanted, and didn't worry about stepping on toes to get it. For reasons unknown, Phillips waited until June to let special teams assistant Steve Ortmeyer go, then replaced him with Greg Nord, a former UofL recruiting coordinator (when they were damned good). Secondly, Joker's emphasis on recruiting has already borne fruit. UK sits with a top 25 class for 2011, including Four-Star DB Glen Faulkner and several Three-Star players. As always, the challenge will be to keep those guys solid and have them sign the dotted line next year, but so far, so good.



The only big setback this offseason appears to be in the classroom. Starting corner Paul Warford will not play for the Wildcats again, and DT Mister Cobble's eligibility is also in jeopardy. Still, operation win seems to be in full effect.



"I hate to break it to you, but there is no big lie, there is no system, the universe is indifferent"


Who will quarterback the Cats this year? Joker has taken the bold and correct stand by saying that whoever wins the competition will be the guy who can make plays, not simply manage the game. In Randall Cobb, Chris Matthews and Larod King, UK has its best receivers since the Burton, Johnson, Tamme, Lyons days. This offense needs to carry the team, and it has to throw to do that. I am indifferent to who quarterbacks this team. Except in spurts, Hartline has never impressed me. Newton, who is a great kid, did a good job of not losing games last year. But the offense was so limited with him out there, I have to wonder whether he can ever be that guy. Mossakowski is the great unknown, but if the Cats go with him they'll be passing over guys with a lot of experience for someone who has none.



What I am not indifferent to is this: Kentucky can win 8 or 9 games this year if their quarterback can consistently complete passes downfield and avoid costly mistakes. If we are dinking and dunking and deliberatly going three and out to avoid turning the ball over, like we did late last year, this is a six win team. Hopefully.



"If you don't like whats being said, just change the conversation"

Don't believe what you read in any national source, the Cats' Offensive Line is going to be just fine this year. Technically, Stuart Hines is the only returning starter, but that is misleading. A number of guys have played a lot of football for us over the years. I wanted to talk about this in more detail, but Duncan Cavanah at Kentucky Sports Radio has already done the legwork and since he writes better than I do, there isn't much point in repeating it. His main points are these: Cats linemen have collectively played in 156 games and started 31, converted DE Chandler Burdon could be a stud at Left Tackle and the right side of our line will be huge and skilled. I really believe that the o-line will be a strength of the team. There is depth at every position, so if a guy isn't producing, he'll get yanked. I want to change the conversation and say this: I'll be disappointed if the offensive line skips a beat this year.

"I didn't get where I am by dwelling on the past."

While I realize we will have Tennessee on the road, they are ripe for the plucking. Their leading returning rusher gained 94 yards last year. No one on the roster has thrown a college pass. Eric Berry isn't walking through that door. We might be playing for something that night while they might not. Hell, we were picked to finish ahead of them in the SEC East this year. None of that matters, though, if the Cats cannot put the past behind them and win this game.

"I'm Peggy Olson and I want to smoke some marijuana"

I'll never understand why, with games on the line at USC (2 point conversion attempt) and against UT (3rd and goal at the 3, TD wins game, entire stadium knows we cannot win in overtime), we didn't run plays out of the Wildcat last year. While I expect the Cats' offense to be improved overall, I'll be looking for the Wildcat again in these situations, and answers if we fail using the conventional offense.

"I keep going a lot of places and ending up somewhere I've already been."

Subject to what I've already said about the quarterback situation, and with the understanding that the schedule set-up is nearly ideal, I cannot shake the belief that this is a 6 or 7 win team, much as it has been the last three years. I see wins against WKU, Akron and Charleston Southern. We will get 2 of 3 from Louisville, Mississippi State and Vandy. A three week homestand against Auburn, USC and Georgia will yield one win. That is six wins with away games against Ole Miss and UT unaccounted for. More on that to come.

Ortmayer out, Nord in.

News comes today that Steve Ortmayer is out as UK's special teams and tight ends coach. He'll be replaced by former UK and U of L assistant Greg Nord, who had just joined Ron Zook's staff at Illinois in December. Nord was a casualty when Kragthorpe was blown out, but he had been on the staff there for 15 years. As recruiting coordinator, he obviously enjoyed a fair amount of success. Nord was an assistant at Kentucky under Jerry Claiborne.

On this site, I've been openly critical of the job Ortmayer did with the special teams. My thinking was this: Since it has little choice if it wants to compete in the SEC, UK regularly uses its front line players on special teams. We've consistently failed to execute simple blocking schemes on punts and kicks over the past few years. Since the same kids who do everything else are involved, that has to come back to coaching. It is too painful to recount all the times this has killed us.

True, we have had some success during Ortmeyer's tenure both returning and blocking kicks. I believe, though, that this is also a function of having the team's best players performing these tasks. Maybe that isn't fair, but you cannot draw up Derrick Locke's speed on a chalkboard, that's for sure.

I don't have an opinion on Nord. Most people seem to see him as an upgrade. He has a good pedigree. Hopefully he'll help recruiting in Louisville, which will be prime battleground for the program in the near future. At the end, I just feel like this was a move Joker had to make if he was going to put his stamp on the program.

The most curious thing about the move is the timing. Presumably, Joker could have fired Ortmayer when he let Jimmy Heggins and Rick Petri go at the beginning of the year. Maybe Nord's situation changed and he became available. My best guess is that Joker did not want to risk alienating Rich Brooks right after he took the job, and simply bided his time. After all, Brooks and Ortmayer had been together a while and many expected him to step down voluntarily when Brooks left.

Finally, say this for Joker. In his first six months at the helm, he landed three desired position coaches who made arguably lateral moves (from Arkansas, Mississippi State and Illinois) to be here. He has landed a fourth guy from a lower D-1 school (Tee Martin) who may the the best hire of all. He means business, and I like that.

68 Days

With the biggest night in UK basketball history now out of the way, there is a whiff of football in the air.
UK Football Fan will make its return on or about August 1. In the meantime, you can follow me on Twitter here.

New SEC Bowl Lineup

As the offseason progresses, we are about halfway between national signing day and spring practice, basically the deadest college football period of the year. With that in mind, lets take a look at the new and improved SEC Bowl lineup that will go into effect this year and should hold firm through 2013. The shakeup was the result of the SEC signing a four year deal with the Gator Bowl for a game that will feature yet another SEC v. Big 10 New Year's Day matchup. Not coincidentally, the Independence Bowl has dropped its association with the SEC. The decision was reportedly based in part on being bumped down a spot in the pecking order, and the increased chance that, as in year's past, no SEC team would be available to take the slot in future years.

Obviously, the SEC has once again made out like a bandit with the switchout. This is a boon for fans of middling to lower tier football schools (read: Us) as the league's worst bowl destination has been replaced by a potentially warm and closer, if not exactly picturesque, Jacksonville.

The Gator has apparently been promised to have at least the sixth pick (seven if the SEC places 2 teams in the BCS) among SEC schools, placing it just behind the Chick-Fil-A Bowl in the pecking order. Given the CFA's history with the SEC and its strength (the game sells out annually) I don't anticipate that lie will improve. Assuming so, below is a look at the new lineup. Recall that the SEC will almost always received an at-large BCS berth, which effectively gives it 10 slots instead of 9.

1) BCS (??)

2) Capital One Bowl v. Big 10 #2 (Jan. 1)

3,4) Cotton Bowl v. Big 12 #2 (Jan. 2)

3, 4) Outback Bowl v. Big 10 #3 (Jan. 1)

5) Chick-Fil-A Bowl v. ACC #2 (Jan. 1)

6) Gator Bowl v. Big 10 #4 or #5 (Jan 1)

7, 8) Music City Bowl v. ACC #5, 6 or 7 (Jan. 27)

7,8) Liberty Bowl v. Conference USA Champion (Jan. 2)

9) Papajohns.com Bowl v. Big East #5 (Jan. 2)