My son hits the Catwalk before Akron game

This week's UK Bowl Projections

We'll begin week 4 with a look at where the various outlets project the Cats to end up in their bowl season. The Bowl Projection posts might be a little sparse for a while as MSNBC has apparently quit posting.

A couple of notes about bowl slots. Recall that the Gator Bowl has replaced the Independence in the SEC lineup. This is an obvious upgrade and gives our conference an extra New Year's Day Florida destination. Had this been the lineup over the last 4 years, it is very likely UK would have wound up in either Jacksonville or Atlanta 2-3 times.

With Florida no longer penciled in for 11 wins, there exists at least some possiblity that the SEC will only get one team into the BCS. Under the current format in place since the 2006 season (5 Bowls), this has never happened. This would obviously hurt the SEC by pushing everyone down a slot.

I eyeballing where things stand today, I'd say UK fans should be rooting against Georgia . With 2 SEC losses in the books and Florida, Auburn and UK on the road still on the schedule, they are ripe for overtaking. Georgia is slotted ahead of UK in each of the projections below.

ESPN MARK SCHLABACH
Music City Bowl v. North Carolina

ESPN ANDREA ADELSON
Liberty Bowl v. South Florida (She must mean Central Florida as the CUSA gets an automotic bid)

CFN-SCOUT
Birmingham (Formerly Papajohn's.com) Bowl v. South Florida

CBS SPORTSLINE
Music City Bowl v. NC State

Gameday-SEC style

Not a lot of leftover thoughts about this one. As supportive as I am of UK decisions about scheduling for the football team, I must admit that it leaves me with very little to write about. There isn't a single Kentuckian on Akron's roster, so I don't even have that to talk about. Instead I'll do a very quick look around the SEC.

Today the SEC doesn't have any marquee games, but there are a couple of decent ones where someone has a chance to make a statement. The nooner (ESPN) features Arkansas heading down between the hedges. Having been pretty much owned by Marcus Lattimore and USC last week, this is an important one for Mark Richt and his squad. Win, and they are probably back in the Top 25 with their only loss on the road to a good team. Lose, and coach Richt's seat could start to heat up. For Arkansas, it is the first real test of the year.

Florida heads to Tennessee (3:30 est-CBS) in what used to be a huge early season matchup. This one has lost its luster. Still a UT upset against a Florida squad that hasn't quite found its footing on offense would be a huge boon for new coach Derrick Dooley. Though unlikely, it isn't completely outside the realm. I personally will be rooting for Florida, as I don't want UT to have any excuse to gain confidence at any point this year.

Cam Newton and Auburn host Clemson (7PM-espn) in what I perceive as a matchup of mirror image colleges and athletic programs. Seriously, aren't Clemson and Auburn the same school?

Finally, I'm interested to see if Mississippi State can get anything going at LSU (7PM-ESPNU)today. I cannot escape the notion that MSU might be for real and LSU is primed for a big fall.

The rest of the SEC games are all yawners, including an in conference game between Ole Miss and Vandy (12:21, the telecast formerly known as JP) that I'll lay money will be the lowest rated SEC Network game of the year.

As always, good luck and Go Cats. Have a fun day.

Funky Akron Preview

Cobb for Heisman

Recent talk about the best players in college football by analyst Mel Kiper, Jr. and others has led to some grumblings in Big Blue Nation. Why isn't Randall Cobb mentioned as a Heisman candidate. For anyone who has watched him play, it is hard to argue that he isn't one of the best players in college football. Many if not most believe he will leave Kentucky with the unofficial title of "best player in school history". So here is the question I'll try to answer. What would have to happen for Randall Cobb to win the Heisman, either this year or next?

1. The Cats go at least 9-3, if not 10-2. Here is the great limiting factor that is well out of Cobb's exclusive control. The Heisman is not a team award, but the winner is overwhelmingly more likely to come from a very good team. Since 1981, only five players whose team lost more than 2 games won the Heisman, and most came from football royalty schools: Tim Tebow, Ricky Williams, Ty Detmer, Tim Brown, Bo Jackson.

This isn't just about penalizing players who don't win. It is about exposure. If UK is in the Top 10 or 15 late in the season, it is going to get that good ESPN slot, rather than being on regional SEC Network or Fox Sports South. If we are in contention in the SEC East, our highlights are automatically on Sportscenter. There is no Heisman if you aren't a feature player on the Worldwide Leader week after week.

2. Score at least 20 touchdowns. Desmond Howard is the last non-QB or RB to win the Heisman. He did it back in 1991 in what I think would have to be a blueprint for Cobb's chances at the award. Howard did not get to 1000 receiving yards. That is important, because with all Cobb is asked to do, I don't see him having a 1000 yard season this year or next. What Howard did was find the end zone in myriad ways. Coincidentally, this is Randall's specialty. Howard's 1991 campaign featured 19 receiving TDs, 2 rushing and one each on a kickoff and punt.

3. Go bezerk in one game. As I mentioned, Cobb does so many things that his yardage numbers in any one category are never going to jump out at voters, at least not over the course of a season. But having eye popping numbers in a single game is a different matter. A review of Cobb's career indicated that he has only gone over 100 yards in rushing twice and has never had a 100 yard receiving game. A 300 yard combined game of rushing, receivng and returning is in play for Randall, and would probably be impressive enough to do the trick.

4. Have a signature play. Cobb's greatest physical asset (besides his heart) is his balance. It is uncanny. For Cobb to get the Heisman, he'd need to have one play that shows this off, spinning off someone's back without his knees touching the ground, flipping and keeping his feet, something that makes everyone in the country say "whoa".

5. Some luck and a bad bounce or two for other contenders. If Michael Crabtree doesn't haul in a pass with 7 seconds left against UT, Colt McCoy wins the Heisman instead of Sam Bradford. There is an element to winning the Heisman that is out of any one player's hands.

OR, in lieu of at least some of these requirements, Cobb could instead play some defense. Babe Ruth was the best baseball player of all time. You want to know why? Make your argument for Willie Mays, Hank Aaron or Ted Williams and then hear my trump card. In addition to being no worse than a top 5 hitter of all time, Ruth went 94-46 as a pitcher and was 3-0 with a 0.87 ERA in two World Series appearances. I win. If the Cats could win 9 games next year while lining Cobb up as a full-time corner, he gets a couple of picks in addition to an expected offensive output, it would be time to hand him the trophy. Before you jump all over me, I realize this isn't going to happen and I'm just joking. Kinda.

Sunday Notes Not Published Until Wednesday

*While the headlines belonged to Randall Cobb, the real story of this game for the Wildcats was Mike Hartline, whose confidence has to be through the roof at this point. No matter who you are going against, going 16 for 20 is tough. Mike put a number of throws on the money and managed things like a champ.


*The wide receiving corps are the most improved thing about the team. LaRod King and Matt Roark have really stepped up to provide depth.



*I did not think the offensive line played all that well. While the pass blocking was generally good, I don't feel like they were getting off the ball in the running game all that well. Moncell Allen did have another solid game blocking for Locke at fullback.



*The defense was obviously a little suspect in this game. I would note a couple of things, though. First, Martavius Neloms was out for the game at corner (I'm not sure why). Second, the Cats were substiting liberally even in the first half. Qua Huzzie and Ridge Wilson played quite a bit, Josh Gibbs got a couple of series in at safety, and there was also movement at defensive line and corner.

*Anthony Mosely and Cartier Rice played pretty well in Neloms absence.

*In two games, captain DeQuin Evans has yet to register a tackle.

Notes while waiting on the mail

Interesting morning here in the UK Football Fan household. First of all, we know that football season is in full swing because my son and I have restarted our ritual of playing catch while watching games. Every once in a while I'll have him stop and do some situps (he sucks at pushups). We call this his training. During a typical college football game, we'll probably pass the ball 1000 times. When we aren't watching games during football season, he is usually playing Madden on the Wii (which he is doing right now). Despite not listening to a thing I tell him about anything else, he has developed a real love for football. Its pretty cool.

All of which factors heavily into the dilemma that has presented itself here today. Last Sunday my Uncle texted me to say that he is leaving town and asking if I wanted his tickets for this game and his Orange lot pass. Hell yes. He mailed them to me on Tuesday, from Danville. As of yesterday's mail, the package hasn't arrived. So as of this morning, I have no idea what my Commonwealth experience will entail today. Either I'll be full on tailgating on my own with sweet 40 yard line seats for my son and I, or I'll be wandering around the parking lot at 6:30 looking for cheap tickets for my kids for whom I've secured no babysitter. We'll see what today's mail brings.

Tonight's game should be a walkover for the Cats. Western has not won a game since UK throttled them 41-3 at Commonwealth in 2008. Though I expect Willie Taggart to breath new life in the program, it is going to have to wait another week.

A couple of good games are on tap in the SEC today. Of course the marquee matchup is Penn State at Alabama at 7. But I am a lot more interest in watching UGa-USC at noon. This game could have a lot to do with the SEC East race, what with SC looking very good against Southern Miss last week and Florida not exactly coming out like world beaters against Miami(OH). Last year the Bulldogs eeked one out in Athens, 41-37 in a game that went down to the last possession. Can the Cocks turn the tables in Columbia?

This is actually one of the better college football days I can remember. I'm excited for the UK game, but sometimes it is a bit of a bummer to know that I'm missing a ton of good games to spend all day there. I'll miss the 3:30 and 7pm games, but with the aforementioned SEC tilt at noon, and my UCLA Bruins playing the nightcap against Stanford at 10:30 est, I am still going to get a lot in.

Have a great day everyone and go Cats. Did the mail come yet?

Hartline

With the benefit now of a little bit of hindsight, I want to talk today about Joker's decision to got with Mike Hartline as the starting quarterback in the opener against Louisville. Since Mike played well in that game (very well, if you ask me), the debate has died down a bit. You know as well as I do that if UK starts collection three and outs like baseball cards in the next two weeks, or Hartline throws a couple of bad picks against Florida, things are going to pick back up again. So, with very little of substance to say about Saturday's game, now seems like a good time to explore it.

When the decision was announced, the reaction from UK fans was basically split in thirds. Some, like me, accepted that Hartline won the job though even many of those people were sceptical. Many people were disappointed that Morgan Newton was not named the starter. After all, he was 5-3 last year as a true freshman starting in the SEC, and came into the program with a lot of hype. There was still a third faction who insisted that Ryan Mossakowski was the future of the program, and needed to be installed as the starter immediately.

What I never understand about this debate is how anyone unconnected with the the football program can pretend to know what Joker should do. With the exception of the first fall scrimmage (which I saw and didn't glean much from) no one has seen these players practice since spring. Not even the media. What we have to go on is the player's histories, that is about it. Reasonable minds might differ about who played better last year, Newton or Hartline, but for people to act as if Joker is missing something obvious by not starting Newton seems like a stretch.

Last year Morgan Newton signed my son's UK shirt the night before the Music City Bowl. I still have a picture of it on my phone. Newton shows up and keeps score at Eastern Little League games, I suppose because he is hanging out with Sam Simpson, whose family is a fixture at Ecton Park. There aren't too many quarterbacks who are best buddies with reserve offensive linemen. My point is that you'll won't find a bigger Morgan Newton fan than me. But the idea that he clearly outplayed Mike Hartline when he took the field last year is absurd.

Yes, Newton was 5-3 as the starter, but that isn't really the whole story. First, two of the wins were against EKU and Louisianna-Monroe. Newton started in the huge win against Auburn, but was only 5 of 13 and gave way to Will Fidler in the second half. In a win against Vandy, he threw for fewer yards than RB Derrick Locke, who completed a 41 yarder to Newton on a trick play in the third quarter. Newton did have a signature game against Georgia, throwing for three TDs in a huge road win. Even still, he threw for less than 150 yards, and a lot of the damages on his throws was done after the catches. In fairness, he is also a better runner than Hartline and obviously there would have been something to gain by starting a sophomore as opposed to a senior. Still, the idea that his play in 2009 earned him the right to the job carries no weight.

The win against Louisville this past week aside, Hartline was a mediocre 8-6 as a starter. But if you look at the 6 losses, that record is better than it sounds. Four of the losses were to Alabama and Florida. If I'm not mistaken, each of those game was contested while the other team was in the top 3 in the nation. The other losses were to South Carolina, and I firmly believe that UK would have won last year's game in Colombia had Hartline not been injured shortly after halftime. In fifteen career starts, he's never been the goat.

Mike was given a helmet sticker by Reece Davis on ESPN after throwing 2 TDs in the last five minutes against Arkansas in 2008, was SEC Offensive Player of the Week against Middle Tennessee State that same year and led the Cats to a second half comeback in the Liberty Bowl. He has had his moments.

Those who insisted Mossakowski should start don't merit a whole lot of discussion. They are the same ones who insisted Newton was better than Hartline without ever having seen him throw a pass in early 2009. These people are convinced a bird in the bush beats two in the hand. All I know if this: If the coaching staff thought he was the best guy for the job, he'd be throwing the ball.

I've been critical of Mike Hartline's ability in this space before. He certainly has a ceiling as a QB. He cannot make every single throw, cannot zip the ball into tight spots and makes his share of mistakes when facing a good defense. But he has done everything he was supposed to do to get himself into this spot, never embarrassed himself or the program and isn't exactly stopping off a UK on his way to NFL glory. Why he has become such a lightening rod over the last three years is puzzling. Is he a good MAC quarterback thrust into being a three year starter at an SEC school? Perhaps. But all that means is that he is better at it than you are, but not as good as Ryan Mallett. That doesn't make him a bad guy, it just makes him a like 99.9% of the other people in the world.

Mike Hartline deserves to hear cheers in Commonwealth tomorrow and throughout the season. Unless things go horribly awry in the few weeks, he is going to be your guy this year. Lets embrace him, because whether you are in his camp or not, it doesn't make sense to do much else.

Quick Thoughts on last Saturday

Three days late and a dollar short to do any kind of real recap on Saturday's win over Louisville. Here are a few leftover thoughts before we turn our attention to WKU.

* One person who hasn't gotten much mention is CB Martavius Neloms. Neloms started for the second time on Saturday (having been pushed into duty against USC with both starters out last year). Officially he was credited with 3 tackles, one for a ten yard loss. Unofficially, he was all over the field. Mychal Bailey also played well, and I feel great about the Cats' secondary at the moment.

*That said, UK got nothing out of the Sam Linebacker spot. Jacob Dufrene was credited with two tackles though I don't even remember seeing him on the field. Ridge Wilson committed the roughing the passer penalty that basically kept Louisville alive for the last five minutes of the game. I've begun to wonder why Qua Huzzie is not working out there. It would seem that having Travathan, Huzzie and Ronnie Sneed on the field would be using our three best linebackers without sacrificing size or speed.

*I suppose no one is second guessing Strong's decision not to try an onside kick with 3:10 left, down by a touchdown. Conventional wisdom would be to kick away with two TOs left and that much time. Since they never stopped our offense without our help the entire game, I thought it was a tough call.

*If you watched my video preview, I'm sure you can guess that I was thrilled with Mike Hartline's performance in this game. Mike made some plays, never forced anything and threw the ball away when he needed to. These are the things I expect from him. It looks like his feel for the game has improved. He move out of the pocket and continued to look downfield, tucked the ball up and ran once or twice and just seemed to be more in his element.

*My father-in-law played halfback at UK before a bad knee and Charlie Bradshaw chased him away in 1962. He said something interesting about Derrick Locke after the game. "If he doesn't start protecting himself, he won't last past the third game". I don't know enough about playing the position to make that kind of assessment, so I thought that was interesting. What I know is this: Louisville got several clean licks on Derrick that look like they hurt. I'd like to see him get some rest over the next couple of weeks.

*New coach, same problems on special teams. Ryan Tydlacka is a good punter, but I think Joe Mansour's time as our placekicker is now. His redshirt was burned Saturday, so I have to think that was the plan all along.

*First half Kentucky was an eight win team. Second half Kentucky was a five win team.

*The Pizza Pit is a very nice facility. I won't lie, I enjoyed my chair back immensely.

*More coming as this week unfolds.

Final thought

I've read all there is to read about this game and have come to the conclusion that, on paper, it is a frighteningly even matchup. The difference? There will only be one Randall Cobb on the field, and he'll be wearing blue. Go Cats.