Season Game by Game Predictions

You may have seen the game by game predictions of this guy, this guy or this guy. Who cares what they think. Last time I looked, none of these guys ran a blog that got four hits a day.

Sept 5th at Miami (OH)
Game close well into the third quarter, when UK eventually puts together a couple of solid drives and wins going away. UK 35-20. 1-0

Sept 19th Louisville
Cats struggle early but eventually get into the groove offensively. Louisville's Victor Anderson runs it well between the 20s but cannot get it going in the red zone. UK 21-13. 2-0

Sept 26th Florida
The Cats manage to keep things from getting out of hand as they did last year, but are no match for the Flying Tebows. Fla. 42-17. 2-1.

October 3rd Alabama
The ESPN scheduling gods finally conspire to give us an evening start date. A well oiled crowd carries the Cats a long way, but Alabama just has too much team speed. Ala 28-17. 2-2.

October 10th at South Carolina
As much as I'd like to predict a win in this one, I just don't see it. Not this year, not on the road. That jackass just has our number. Spurrier will hang it up this year without having ever lost to Kentucky. USC 28-20. 2-3.

October 17th at Auburn
This has the trappings of an ugly game. Auburn's offense is likely to be abysmal, though they should have a solid D. The Cats get off the schneid with a mild upset and set the stage for the second half of the season. UK 15-12. 3-3.

October 24th Louisiana-Monroe
The Cats show up to Commonwealth after a big win and the team lets their guard down. With some of our most obnoxious fans spending the afternoon at Keeneland, stunned silence as UK heads into halftime behind. In a game that should have given our starters some rest, our boys are forced to make a furious comeback. UK 31-27. 4-3.

October 31st Mississippi State
Halloween. Homecoming. Blackout. Coming off a big scare. Cats finally put it all together for a big victory. UK 35-17. 5-3.

November 7th EKU
Cats finally get a little breathing room, with some rest for their starters before the home stretch. EKU is game, but cannot mount an offense. UK 31-10. 6-3.

November 17th at Vanderbilt
Just like in 2007, the Cats will head down to Nashville with six wins in hand, looking to climb the SEC Bowl Ladder. Like 2007, Vandy will be sitting on six wins, hoping to get bowl eligible. As in 2007, UK fans will fill Vandy's stadium. It will be another dogfight. UK 24-21. 7-3.

November 24th at Georgia
Ten straight games finally take a toll on the Cats. Georgia wins easily against a Kentucky team missing one or two of its better players. UGA 35-14, 7-4.

November 28th Tennessee
I cannot even talk about it. UT 27-17. 7-5.

All in all, a 7-5 season is a pretty good one, and lands UK back in the Liberty Bowl against Houston.

Seven Days-Saturday links

Several things going on these days. Ricky P. and our boy Billy Clyde have kept UK Football out of the sports headlines. Their shennanigans cannot erase the fact that college football kicks off in five days, and UK in seven.

In addition to our former Basketball coaches acting like a couple of buffoons, a second annoying roadblock has hit. This pesky job I have. August in general and last week in particular have been my busiest in about 3 years. I'm not complaining. In the law business, busy has always been good. At a big law firm in 2009, busy is really really good.

What it means is, I haven't had a chance to write. With a two day trial slammed down in the middle of road trips to Cincinnati and Knoxville (poor planning, I know), the next two weeks might not be any better. I would like to break down the Miami (OH) game and do week by week predictions for the UK season before next Saturday, but it may not materialize.

Here are some links of a Saturday to tide things over.

KSR Reports that Mike Hartline has shaved the 'stache.

A Sea of Blue laments the lack of preseason love for the Cats. Sound familiar?

Chip Cosby breaks down the Wide Recievers.

ESPN's Chris Low talks with new Auburn starting QB Chris Todd.

Finally, I watch this kid last night on an ESPN High School game. An Alabama commit, he has about the best arm and pocket presense I've ever seen in a high school quarterback.

Hartline's Mustache Tearing Up the Internet

Here are your Mike Hartline's Mustache links:

1. SEC Blog Anything But Gatorade weighs in.

2. KSR gets its kicks.

3. Every Day Should Be Saturday dubs it the "Syrian Exchange Student". (Thanks, John Clay)

4. Of course, John Clay was on this story a couple of days ago.

Against this backdrop comes the real news that Brooks may redshirt both Freshmen Quarterbacks. I'm not sure how big of news this is. Will Fidler has put himself in a position to be the backup QB by outperforming the freshmen. Does this mean he'll still be the second best QB on the roster in the middle of the season? Not necessarily. Brooks would have no reason to not redshirt at least one of the guys, so all he is doing now is keeping his options open.

The redshirt can be removed at any time. If Hartline goes down, or is ineffective at any point in the season, Brooks is going to go with the next best guy, whoever it is at that time. Period.

What his comments do mean (and this is important) are that Hartline and Fidler have both inspired some confidence during camp. In Hartline's case, it could be the 'stache.

Chip Cosby Q & A

As promised, Herald Leader UK Football writer Chip Cosby graciously agreed to answer some questions I posted to him about the upcoming season. Chip does a great job covering the team in print and has also been on the spot with his blog posts about the comings and goings of spring and summer practice. A link to his football blog is below. I met Chip last year the night before the Liberty Bowl. Unbeknownst to me, he and my wife were friends from elementary school and we ended up chatting for a while. Since then I will hit him up occasionally for his insights, which he is always kind enough to deliver. I appreciate him taking the time out to do this, as well. Answers are in bold.

1. Randall Cobb's health seems to be a recurring theme in camp as it was last season. Can the Cats have a successful season on offense without him as a permanant fixture in the lineup?

I really don't think so, Alex. Cobb brings so much to the table that they really need him healthy and 100 percent if the offense is going to reach its full potential. He's in line to be the No. 1 receiver, will be needed as a spark and a change of pace as a quarterback in the 'Wildcat' package, and he's also potentially a game-breaking punt returner. Precious points could be left on the board if Cobb's back injury flares up or is more serious than the staff originally thought.

2. We heard a lot about Danny Trevathan and Winston Guy in the spring and freshman Larry Warford has been the talk of preseason practice. All are more or less fresh on the scene. What established player or players look like they have improved the most since last season, and who might surprise us come Sept. 5th and beyond?

A guy to keep an eye on is Sam Maxwell at strongside linebacker. Maxwell has had his moments over the years backing up and rotating with Johnny Williams and could blossom now that he's a full-time starter. Linebackers coach Chuck Smith said Maxwell had an outstanding first scrimmage last Saturday.

3. The Cats have a number of what I'd call "winnable upset" games on the schedule. Road trips to Auburn and South Carolina and a home game against UT all appear to give us a fair chance. Is there one game on the Cats' schedule that sticks out at you as an upset special?

Tennessee sticks out to me for several reasons. No. 1, it's at home. Secondly, you just really don't know what to expect from the Lane Kiffin era in Knoxville. I for one am a little skeptical at the moment. (Ed. note: Me too.) There's also not the fear factor with Tennessee. While the Vols spanked UK last year in Fulmer's last game, the UK players felt like they really should have won the two games before that. And this is one that Rich Brooks wants really, really bad. He would probably put beating Tennessee on the top of his to-do list before he decides to ride off into the sunset.

4. Obviously you have a job that has taken you all over the SEC. Whatis your favorite football venue to visit in terms of the town, stadium, game atmosphere and media accommodations?

They all bring different things to the table. Gainesville is my favorite town in terms of weather, scenery, campus, bars and restaurants. Riding through and taking in pre-game atmosphere at 'The Grove' at Ole Miss is something special. My favorite stadium to watch a game is Georgia; I thought 'Between the Hedges' was a bunch of hype before I actually went there, but it's beautiful. If you want a crazy loud atmosphere with a lot of raucous people who have been drinking from sun up to sun down, there's nothing else like a night game at LSU.

5. Aaron Boyd was probably the most highly touted 2008 UK recruit. On a team desparate for a good receiver last year, he sat behind some people who really struggled on the field. He has just finished a one week suspension for violating some team rule. He is clearly not adjusting well. First off, what is the deal? Secondly, even if he righted the ship tomorrow, is he in a position to help this football team in the near future?

Aaron's first problem was that he missed a good portion of fall camp last year with mono. I thought he probably should have redshirted. Brooks keeps making reference to his problems beating press coverage and getting open, which implies that maybe he's not quite as fast as they thought he was when they signed him. There's still time for Aaron to develop, but I'm sure the coaches are starting to wonder. He wasn't really in the rotation before getting suspended, so you'd have to think missing a week of fall camp is going to hurt his chances to play much early on this year. He mentioned in the spring that he wouldn't mind redshirting. So far Brooks has been non-committal about that.

6. I'm curious about how the Defensive Ends at the top of the depth chart are progressing. From a purely statistical standpoint, it is obviously a glaring weakness compared to the rest of our defense. In a related note, the Cats' defensive philosophy appears to be to play base D, blitz rarely, and rely on the defensive line to put pressure on the QB. Based on our personell, do you expect that philosophy to change?

I think with the loss of Jarmon, and no other real proven pass rusher on the roster the coaching staff will try and do some different things to generate pressure. The coaches have been raving about DeQuin Evans and his motor, but he's been slowed somewhat by a hamstring injury. Chandler Burden has the size and strength but needs to brush up on his technique and pass-rush moves. I'd guess that you'll see Evans and Burden starting against Miami, with Collins Ukwu and Taylor Wyndham the backups. They've also been moving linebackers Micah Johnson and Danny Trevathan up to end occasionally in pass rush situations.

7. Finally, it is safe to say that anyone who cares enough about UK Football to read this blog thinks you have a cool job. Is there anything about your job, positive or negative, that most people don't think about if they haven't been in your position?

There are a lot of great things about my job. The first thing people talk about is the fact that you get to go to games for free, travel, sit in the press box, and you get the kind of access that most people don't. The thing I enjoy the most is the different people you get to meet. So many people are into UK sports here and follow them through the media that people really want to hear your opinions. I always enjoy being out somewhere and meeting someone who reads my stories and wants to talk football, basketball, whatever.

But it is a job. There's deadlines. There's competition, even more so now that Internet reporting is hot and heavy. And when something is your job, you don't get to approach things like the casual fan. There's a lot of down time but there's also a lot of late nights and weekends away from your family. For most people sports is a getaway or escape, something to look forward to. Not that the reporters don't look forward to the games, etc. We do. But when we're not working, a lot of times you want to get away from it a little bit. Too much exposure to anything can burn you out.

Overall, though, I love my job. Even with the uncertainty of the newspaper business, I still have yet to find anything that would make me want to quit what I'm doing.

Wednesday

I wish that I wasn't right all the time. My first post of the season came Monday. I mentioned that Randall Cobb was injury prone and his health was a big key to the season. Apparently, Cobb headed to a specialist the next day for a back problem I didn't even know he had when I wrote the column. The good news is that he has already had a negative MRI, meaning that his problems are likely muscle and not disk related. From experience, though, when your back hurts it is hard to do anything, let alone play football.

On a separate note, don't forget to vote on the poll on the right when you visit the site. Right now, I'm looking like a tool with only one vote.

Finally, keep an eye out for a question and answer session with the Lexington Herald Leader's UK Football writer Chip Cosby some time in the next week. Chip does a great job covering the team in his articles and blog posts and has seen it all up close during the recent renaissance years. I appreciate having him on here and look forward to hearing his takes.

Bowl Projection Fail

All three fans of this site know that I like to focus on bowl projections. Back in May, I reported that Scout had the Cats going to the Chick-Fil-A Bowl, and went over my early SEC projections. This was before the Jeremy Jarmon suspension was announced.

Right now several other outlets are projecting UK out of the bowl picture entirely. More still have us in the very bottom Independence/Pizza Web Site Bowl tier.


Sports Illustrated, ESPN SEC blogger Chris Low and ESPN writer Bruce Feldman are giving us no love whatsoever. All project that the SEC will not fill its allotment of bowls (assuming 2 in the BCS). Thus the snub amounts to a projection that we won't get the 6 wins needed to be bowl eligible.


Kentucky Sports Radio goes Independence v. Colorado, ditto ESPN's Mark Schlabach. The Sporting News has us in the Papajohns.com Bowl v. UCONN.

Of course, my projections for the SEC included a return trip to the Liberty Bowl for the Cats. Again, that was before JJ took his game to the NFL.

Several of the sites I usually discuss haven't posted yet. Still, this is a disturbing trend. Of course, we haven't played a game yet.

UK Football Fan-Mad Men Edition

Since the Season 2 debut of UK Football Fan falls the day after the Season 3 premiere of my new favorite show, Mad Men, I thought I'd kick things off with the totally unoriginal column idea of using pop culture quotes to illuminate my subject.
First off, if you aren't watching Mad Men you are missing out. For the record, I thought the season premiere was a little uneven, though the scene with Don and Salvatore on the plane ride home from Baltimore was one of the show's all-time best. And by the way, that is a Mad Men, cartoon me on the right.

With apologies to Bill Simmons, here goes.



"I want you to do something for me Pete. I want you to get a cardboard box, and put all your stuff in it. "

This is a rather ominous way to start out, but it is my favorite line. This goes to Steve Ortmeyer, who should be another disastrous special teams year from being shown the door. Three roughing the kicker penalties probably cost us the Vandy game. A blocked chip-shot field goal nearly led to a loss against Middle Tennessee. Two consecutive blocked punts cost our team its last shred of dignity in the Florida debacle. Field goal kicking has been a glaring weakness in our otherwise pretty decent three year bowl string. The list goes on and on. In fairness, the Cats did some good things in the kick return game and by-and-large in kick coverage last year. Still, the overall showing has been abysmal. Special teams use the same kids as the offense and defense. That they execute so poorly has to fall in some measure on coaching.



"Get out of here and move forward. This never happened. It will shock you how much it never happened."

Don's words to Peggy after she has given up her baby is really a description of how he lives his own life.

Last year UK took a potentially soul killing beatdown at Florida in stride, gaining bowl eligibility the following week in Starkville then playing perhaps its best game of the year in a loss to Georgia. This season's early schedule is much harder than in the recent past. UK could easily take a 2-4 record (including a blowout loss or two) into the second half of the season and still end up in a bowl game. Right after the tough part of the schedule comes an easy stretch from October 17 to November 14. At that point we go Louisiana-Monroe (Home), Mississippi State (H), EKU (H) and Vandy (A). Neither the team nor its fans should freak out over big losses or the failure to get an upset win before that point. Short memories could be helpful.

"Don Draper: We should get married.

Midge: You think I'd make a good ex-wife?"

Gene Chizek brings his five combined wins in his last two years at Iowa State to Auburn, a school that just ran off a coach who went 13-0 in 2004 and 11-2 as recently as 2006. A winnable road game for the Cats on October 17th.

"Eugene, I'm in the persuasion business, and frankly I'm disappointed by your presentation."
Peggy eviscerates a suitor during an office party.

Papa Brooks' explanation aside, I must confess I am a little concerned that UK has only three prospects signed for its 2010 class.



"Having money and education does not take the rude edge out of people"

Be prepared for a nasty fight at Vandy this year. They will have a decent squad again, and bowl eligibility for one or both teams will be hanging in the balance, as it has for the last several years when this game is played.

"Peggy, this is isn't China. There's no money in virginity."

To my man Tim Tebow. See you September 26th. Uhhh. . .be gentle?


"Pete: Is Don on board with my promotion?
Duck: I'm the President, I don't need his permission, do I?"

To the UK brass, for making a head scratching decision to give Randy Sanders the title of Offensive Coordinator while promoting Joker to "Head Coach of the Offense" or something funny like that. These are smart guys, and I think they know that as long as Joker is calling the plays, he is still the OC. I don't think anyone else, such as a potential employer for Coach Sanders down the road, is going to be fooled either.



"You wanna be on vacation Pete? Cause I can make that happen."

To Aaron Boyd, who by all accounts is running out of chances.



Doctor: "So, Mr. Draper, you haven't had a physical in quite some time."
Don Draper: "Yeah. I eat a lot of apples."

As improved as the rest of our offense may or may not be, Randall Cobb is the key. Not only will he be the focal point at receiver, he'll get many snaps as a Wildcat package QB and return punts. We'll need to get the ball in his hands 10-15 times a game to be the most successful. Outside of Trevard Lindley and Micah Johnson, he is the team's best player. Here is the problem issue with Randall. Dude gets hurt. Last year, he missed two and a half early games with a high ankle sprain along with the Liberty Bowl due to an unrelated knee injury. Cobb has already been held out of some drills this preseason with hip issues. If UK cannot keep him on the field, the offense will assuredly struggle. This is an angle people don't seem to be talking up, but Cobb's health may be the real key to the season.


Don: "What kind of agency do we want to be?"
Roger: "The kind where everyone has a summer house?"

As great as its ensemble cast is, John Slatterly's turn as cynical, pragmatic leach Roger Sterling is the standout performance of the show. I smile every time he comes on camera.

Most fans know intellectually that we don't have the geography, recruiting demographics, or the long term tradition to become a year in and year out SEC powerhouse like Florida, Georgia, LSU or Alabama. These schools may have an occasional hiccup, or a temporary downturn, but will be on the national map almost always. A realistic goal for UK is to be in a tier right below that. Be competitive in every game, consistently beat every SEC doormat, get to a bowl every year, join the hunt for Outback, Chick-Fil-A and Capital One births and every once in a while put it all together for a special season.

The truth is, we are teetering on the edge of having all of this. We are also very close to being back where we were the morning of the LSU game in 2006. Take away two or three plays last year, and we are looking at a 4-8. Most observers would agree that despite only one less win, last year's team was not nearly as good as the two before it. Still, that team persevered, kept the train rolling and was a play or five from finishing even better than the 6-6 most fans would have taken before the year started.

The 2009 Cats look very similar to last year's in terms of talent. Better offense, weaker defense and special teams. Like last year, this team can do some good things, but there isn't going to be much margin for error. A coach of mine used to say, "Football is a game of inches, and we need to play the long inches." This years team is going to have to play the long inches to be successful.

If it does so, a fourth straight bowl and an improved standing in a wide open SEC East race (at least for spots 3-6) could put the program where it needs to be for some time. It is worth playing for.

Big Games-Part 1

With the beginning of the college football season a couple of weeks away, lets take a look at some of the games that will shape the national and SEC season. There are some great matchups on the way.



September 5th



The first weekend is filled with some great interconference games, including at least one with national championship ramifications.



While Florida, Texas and the real USC open up with patsies, Alabama and Virgina Tech get us started right in a made for TV mega matchup at the Georgia Dome. Va Tech is coming off a strong finish, with identical 20-7 wins over BC in the ACC Championship game and Cincinnati in the Rose Bowl. Alabama returns a ton of talent, but must replace well coiffed signal caller John Parker Wilson.




Boise State puts its chances at a BCS bowl on the line early, hosting Oregon. The Broncos went 12-0 last year, including a road win over the Ducks, but somehow settled for the Poinsettia Bowl.

Georgia will put first-time starting QB Joe Cox to the test early, travelling to Stillwater to take on Dez Bryant, Zac Robinson, and the Oklahoma State Cowboys.



Sept 7

Break out your CCDW permit, Florida State hosts Miami (FL).



Sept. 12


A ton of my college friends will be meeting me in Knoxville to watch my UCLA Briuns take on the Tennessee Kiffins. Man, I hate that guy.



Last year USC got Ohio State at home and shellacked the Buckeyes, 35-3. This year, the Trojans travel to Columbus. A win in this game makes either an instant title contender.



Georgia hosts South Carolina, in the kind of game Steve Superior needs to win if he is ever going to establish USC light as a conference power. The clock is ticking, Steve.




September 19th.



Pitino State travels to UK in a game that everyone is conceding to us, or in the case of UK fans chalking up as a win. This one could be a season ruining toe stub if the Cats don't take care of business. In a separate note, I still need tickets to this game.


Texas hosts the team that ruined its 2008 season, a now Michael Crabtree and Graham Harrell-less Texas Tech.


Oregon continues its quest to play the most thankless non-conference schedule in the country with its second non-BCS powerhouse in three weeks, hosting Utah, the same Utes that put it on Alabama in the Sugar Bowl.


West Virgina heads to Auburn. Gene Chizek could buy a lot of goodwill with the sceptical Tiger faithful with a good showing here.


Florida plays Tennessee in a game I seriously hope it wins 100-0.




September 24th


I'll be DVRing 30 Rock and The Office to see if Ole Miss can live up to the preseason hype and steal one on South Carolina's home turf.



September 26th


Cal heads to Oregon in a marquis early season PAC-10 tilt.


It isn't hyped as one of the SEC games of the year. In fact, it could prove one of the worst. But assuming UK hasn't lost to this point, the game against Florida will be the SEC's most attractive on this particular day. It could be the nationally televised 3:30 game on CBS. Lets hope for a better showing than last year.


South Florida hosts Florida State. This reminds me. On the list of things I'd like to see, how about letting the Big East and ACC play a series of games to see who gets to be a part of the BCS the following year?


Token Big Ten game alert: Penn State hosts Iowa. Yeah, I don't really care either.




OCT 3



CAL has a good schedule, including a chance to play its conference's only true powerhouse, USC, at home.



LSU heads to Georgia in a battle of the SEC's upper-middle class.


OCT 10


Florida and LSU kick it off in Death Valley. This is by far the toughest road test in the Tim Tebow Coronation Tour. Oh yeah, and the winner of this game has won the last 3 national championships.

meanwhile . . .

Alabama and Mississippi will be playing at The Grove for possible supremacy in the SEC West. Both must play LSU later in the year, but the winner of this one should be in real good shape.


Alex, Dave, Todd and Ben will be making the seven hour drive to Columbia to see the Cats take on the Cocks. Part of a crucial two game road swing for the Cats we'll discuss in more detail soon.



Oct 17



Texas and Oklahoma square off in Dallas in the "on paper" college football game of the year. Both should be 5-0 heading in. Last year, the Sooners managed to lose and sneak into the national championship game. I don't see that happening again. This could be a de facto national semifinal, played out seven weeks before the end of the season.


Georgia Tech hosts Virginia Tech in a matchup of quarterbacks, Josh Nesbitt and Tyrod Taylor, who both have a lot of hype, but need to improve their accuracy to take their teams where they want to go.


We'll cover the second half of the season in a later post. It is decidedly less interesting.