Saturday, October 31, 2009

Previews

A couple of links and notes on a lazy Saturday. Tonight is huge. If Kentucky is going to, as Rich Brooks would say, climb the SEC ladder, this is a must win game. The Bulldogs have played several big opponents close, yet they come to Commonwealth with a losing record, an interception prone QB and, well the fact that they are Mississippi State. We are very banged up, granted. But mid-tier SEC teams have to be able to beat Mississippi State at home.

Micah Johnson's status is important. Brooks has said that he is available to play but will not start. This is something coaches do that I've never understood. Yes, he might be well enough to play but not to play the whole game. I get that. But why not start the guy so you can see right away what you will be able to do with him? Not a criticism of Brooks, I am sure that coaches do this for some reason. For what it is worth, Johnson tweeted Thursday that he had no knee pain in practice. (Yeah, I broke down on the Twitter thing. I don't send tweets, but I do follow some strategic people. I suck, I know.)

This week has yielded surprisingly little discussion about our starting quarterback. I guess it is a foregone conclusion that we will go with the three headed monster again. Will Fidler has earned the right to start this game, and I would be more comfortable with he and Cobb at the helm tonight. Newton has a ton of potential, but tonight is not a learning curve kind of evening. Beat Mississippi State and get the freshman more experience next week.

Keep an eye on Danny Trevathan and Sam Maxwell tonight. Without Micah, they'll be tasked with filling up the vacuum of run support. Anthony Dixon and the MSU running attack are potent. Our run defense has not been. We are going to be vulnerable. I have confidence in Ronnie Snead, but he is not Micah Johnson.

For anyone curious, I will be watching the game on TV tonight after hustling the kids home from Halloween goodness. See that kid in that picture up there? You try telling his sister and him that they aren't going trick or treating because daddy is going to a football game. Not happening. If you'll be there tonight, make sure to wear black and cheer loudly for me.

Tonight, I think both teams make plays, and we have trouble stopping the run. A special teams blunder or two could really sabotage a game like this, which should be nip and tuck. In the end, I think Randall Cobb makes one more play than the Mississippi State offense and we get it done. Lets call it Kentucky 24 Mississippi State 21.

A couple of links to take us out:

Today, Chip Cosby has a great article about how big this rivalry has become. Key point: the home loss to Mississipi State in 2007 crushed what could have been an unforgettable season for what I agree was the best team of the Brooks era.

This site's new friends at A Sea of Blue come with a monster post breaking down Mississippi State from every angle. Key point: This game determines whether we have any chance to get above the Music City/Liberty tier of Bowls.

SEC Preview

The plot starts to thicken in the SEC this weekend, as it does in all of college football. A little more on UK tomorrow. Here are a some quick hits on the other SEC games.

12:21 Ole Miss (5-2) at Auburn (5-3)
In handling a game Arkansas 30-17 last week, Ole Miss showed the signs many expeted to see when the season began. Jevan Snead is still throwing picks, though. Auburn is sliding with three straight losses after starting the year 5-0. Now would be a good time to right the ship. The Tigers still have to play Alabama at home and Georgia on the road. For its part, Ole Miss still has a realistic chance at 10-2 and at least a backdoor shot at a BCS Bowl.

3:30 Florida (7-0) v. Georgia (4-3) at Jacksonville, Fl.
The World's Largest Game That Shall Not Be Named. It is an intriguing one. Florida has not played a dominant game since, well, since kicking the crap out of us on September 26th. Georgia has lost two games to very good teams (Okla. St. and LSU) and suffered a head scratching blowout at the hands of Kiffin U. Something tells me Joe Cox and Co. are going to be in this till the end. This isn't a bad team.

7:00 Eastern Michigan (0-7) at Arkansas (3-4)
Think the Razorbacks are safe here. Good thing, because they don't get much slack the rest of the way.

7:30 Georgia Tech (7-1) at Vandy (2-6)
I'd love to think that the SEC is so much better than the ACC that this game will be way closer than it is on paper. I don't. Vandy will be the first SEC team knocked out of bowl contention this weekend.

7:45 USC (6-2) at Tennessee (3-4) in
The Cocks are looking like an elite SEC team but must travel to Knoxville, where they'll face a possibility resurgent UT squad. The Vols shellacked Georgia two weeks ago and were within a blocked field goal of upsetting Alabama last week. Should Tennessee lose, it must close the season 3-1 (and almost assuredly beat the Cats Nov. 28th) to go to a bowl. I cannot call this one. It is the game of the week in the SEC.

8:00 Tulane at LSU
There are worse choices in life than "Am I going stay in New Orleans to watch this game at a bar or drive to Baton Rouge, tailgate and take it all in at Death Valley." If you are an undergrad at Tulane right now please note that I am insanely jealous.

More UK specifics soon.

Friday, October 30, 2009

Link of the Day

If you don't read anything else today, check out this hilarious column by Drew Franklin at Kentucky Sports Radio about the Mississippi State game. Drew goes out of the yard with this one.

Tuesday, October 27, 2009

Projected SEC Standings/Bowls

In addition to Bowl projections, I've projected the final wins and losses for each SEC team. I did go through every remaining game on each team's schedule and pick a winner. As always, yes I have a responsible, demanding job and yes, this task took quite some time. But, the point is, these standing present a realistic scenario and everything adds up. I went 16-3 picking conference games from this point forward last year. We'll see how accurate this turns out to be.


Records are SEC followed by overall.



EAST


1. Florida 8-0, 12-0
Sugar

2. Georgia 5-3, 7-5
Chick-Fil-A

3. South Carolina 4-4, 8-4
Outback

4. Tennessee 4-4, 7-5
Music City

5. Kentucky 3-5, 7-5
Liberty

6. Vandy 0-8, 2-10
Momma's home cooking.


WEST


1. Alabama 5-0, 8-0
National Championship

2. LSU 6-2, 10-2
Capital One

3. Ole Miss 5-3, 9-3
Cotton

4. Auburn 2-6, 6-6
Papajohns.com

5. Arkansas 2-6, 6-6
Independence

6. Mississippi State 1-7, 3-9
Home for the holidays.

Some notes on this:

There were tough calls on some games. Some assumptions were: UK beats Vandy and Mississippi State, loses its other games; UT beats USC at home; LSU wins at Ole Miss; USC wins at Arkansas. In fact, a number of South Carolina's games were tough to predict. It also has to play Clemson at home on the last game of the season, a game I've called a win. Obviously, I am picking Alabama to beat Florida in the SEC Championship. I am torn about that, though.



The bowl picks are guesswork in a couple of spots. I don't know that the Independence Bowl would not take Auburn over Arkansas. Assuming things end up exactly how I have them, the Music City and Liberty would probably both mark Tennessee first of the teams not snatched up be better bowls, giving them their choice of which bowl to go to. UK would get the other. I assume UT would pick the Music City, since it is right in the middle of the state, but who knows. Other than that, if this is how these teams finish, these are the places they'll go.

Monday, October 26, 2009

Tuesday Reset

A lot to talk about today, which is my way of saying this column will have no central theme.

Lets start with Saturday's game. UK started out just as we all hoped, poised to take care of business. Then the game got, for lack of a better word, kinda weird. Somehow, Cody Wells kept hitting open receivers, getting knocked on his ass, then getting back up to do it again. Our DBs could not make a play in pass coverage, and each of our throwing QBs threw a horrendous pick.

Even the things that went well were weird. John Connor made me wonder if he isn't the best running back on the team. Randall Cobb got interfered with while catching a punt and still ran it back for a touchdown. Rich Brooks went for (and made) two fourth down conversions on our own side of the field. UK desperately just needed to run the clock out on the second half but didn't even try to. Instead, ULM ran nearly the entire third quarter off the clock for us and only managed seven points.

Oh yeah, and ULM got jobbed big time by the clock operator at the close of the first half.

Dichotomies ruled the day. The game was tense but never really in doubt. The Cats did exactly what they had to do but in a manner so unsatisfying it was hard to leave happy. I was freezing cold but the ice in my bourbon and diet coke kept melting.

And then of course, there is The Micah Situation. Watching him limp off in the second quarter I began this internal monologue: "We started the offseason with Micah Johnson, Trevard Lindley and Jeremy Jarmon all back to lead our defense. Jarmon never played a down and is a Redskin, Lindley has missed half the season and there goes Micah who I might not see play again. If this team still gets to 7-5, it is going to be a hell of an accomplishment. It was going to be so sweet but in the end, we effed it all up." (kudos to anyone who comments the movie reference)

Today we learn that Micah has a minor MCL tear and may not be available this weekend. Brooks also reported that Trevard tried to run yesterday, is sore today, and might not be back this weekend as we'd hoped. Hartline is behind where they'd hoped he'd be. Oy vey.

I've softened on the stance I took in the immediate wake of the game. My comment early Sunday morning was that Cobb should be our primary quarterback. There is some logic there since he is clearly the best runner, best thrower and the person the team is most likely to rally behind. In thinking about it more, there are a couple of problems with that. First, he cannot run the ball every down if he plays QB the whole game. He'll die. Secondly, he has proven more effective when used as a change of pace. Still, I am torn.

The point that Cobb is the team's best receiver is not lost on me. However, this seemed more important when Hartline was healthy. The other QBs aren't as capable of getting him the ball, so it isn't as important. For what it is worth, knowing that Cobb will probably take the snaps when we need a score, I think next Saturday should be Will Fidler's turn to start. Newton has struggled, and this game is just too important. Win Saturday, and there will be other chances to spread the wealth. And again, I expect the ball in Cobb's hands when the game is on the line.

While we are here, the last couple of weeks and this past Saturday especially validates the decision to stick with Hartline through the Alabama and Florida losses and on into the USC game. Clearly, Newton was not ready, and as game as he's been, Fidler does not have Hartline's decision making ability.

This weekend will bring the season's most important game to date. This is a game that the Cats need if they are going to have a good season. Mississippi State has an even greater sense of urgency. Sitting at 3-5, having played competitively in nearly every game, the Bulldogs absolutely have to have this game to have any shot at a bowl. Alabama comes to town for them next week. Then come two winnable games at Arkansas, then finishing up with Ole Miss at home in the Egg Bowl. They are still in the hunt but barely, and it will have to start for them at Commonwealth on Halloween.

Bowl projections may come as early as tomorrow. Bottom line, the Cats might be part of a mad scrum of 7-5 teams jockeying for positions ranging from Chick-Fil-A goodness all the way to Shreveport/Bossier City hell. Should be interesting.

Sunday, October 25, 2009

Reality

We'll talk some more tomorrow. For now, lets say this. If we are going to win the two SEC games we need to win in the next three weeks, you, me and the Kentucky coaching staff know what has to happen. It isn't what Rich Brooks or I would have wanted, but here goes. Randall Cobb is your quarterback in November. Period.

Saturday, October 24, 2009

University of Louisiana at Monroe Preview

Today the Sunbelt's ULa at Monroe Warhawks come to Commonwealth. You may have heard this already by now, but this is a pretty good football team. The Warhawks are 4-2, their losses coming to Texas (59-20) and Arizona State (38-14). These guys last played 11 days ago, beating Arkansas State 16-10, their only game since October 3rd. Quarterback Trey Revell hurt his hand in that game and reportedly will not play tonight. Revell was having a big year. He will be replaced by a freshman, Cody Wells. The Warhawks will be led by TB Frank Goodin, who averages over 90 yards a game.

Allright, this is taking too long to piece together, and I doubt anyone gives a crap. Here is your preview. This is a losable game. ULa Monroe comes in with a better team than the Middle Tennessee squad that come within a shoestring tackle of beating the Cats last year. Last week's win was awesome but this Cats team is still in a precarious spot. It appears that we will use three different quarterbacks today, which I must admit isn't ideal. Thankfully Derrick Locke's knee improved over the course of the week and will be available.

The Warhawks have had a balanced attack all year (about 200 yards per game on the ground and in the air) but with their QB out will probably rely on the running game. Kentucky had success playing their base 4-3 last week. My guess is they'll stick with this plan and forgo nickel and dime packages. I think ULM will have trouble mounting a lot of offense. With that in mind, the key today is for the Cats to come out focused and have some success of offense early. Beyond that, we need to avoid mistakes, particularly giving up touchdowns on special teams.

Ideally, this is a game that we would win going away. We could give both throwing QBs some work, and possibly get some rest for a few guys (Cobb and Locke come to mind, but it would also be good to get guys like Corey Peters, Ricky Lumkin and some of the O Line a break). Something tells me we will still be biting our nails well into the fourth quarter, though. Still, I feel pretty confident in the end result, if for no other reason than our Defense should own them.

I am in the Blue Lot today starting at about 3:30. Stop by and say hello.

Wednesday, October 21, 2009

Bowl Projections? Not yet.

There was some clamoring (ok, one request) after the win this weekend for me to start in with the SEC bowl projections and speculation about where UK might go. I am going to hold off at least one more week. After checking the tape, I found that I didn't start until October 26th last year. At that time, UK had five wins and was heading to Starkeville. In an unrelated note, I posted a hell of a lot more last year.

I won't predict today, but here are some general observations:

1. Once again, the SEC seems assured of sending two teams to BCS bowls. This means ten bowl slots are available for our beloved conference. More details on this later, but for now, know that the rough pecking order is BCS(x2),Capital One, (Cotton, Outback), Chick-Fil-A, (Liberty, Music City), Independence, Papajohns.com.

2. Coincidentally, I project that ten SEC teams will be bowl eligible. Vandy and Mississippi State look like they will miss the cut. UK, Arkansas and Tennessee could end up staying home if they don't take care of business, but in each case it is unlikely. Everyone else has a fairly safe ticket. Caveat: Keep one eye on Ole Miss, which is probably stunned at the direction its season has taken and could collapse.

3. This means, unlike last year, 6-6 is probably not going to get the Cats or anyone else above the dreaded Shreveport hole. Six wins is probably a ticket either there or to the Pizza web site Bowl (in Birmingham, a place I actually wouldn't mind going). Last year, the Cats were able to sneak into the Liberty Bowl at 6-6 by virtue of collapses by Auburn, UT, and Arkansas who all finished 5-7. I don't think that will happen again.

4. I enjoyed looking at Chris Low's ESPN.com SEC blog tonight. He has projections for bowls, and also does a good job at calling each team's "best case" and "worst case" for the close of the season. He has us finishing 7-5, along with a host of other SEC teams.

5. At gunpoint, I'd pick Florida to beat Alabama in the SEC championship game, and end up playing for the national title. I think the Tide is a better team, but I'd never bet against Tim Tebow in a game he has to have.

6. More on this weekend's opponent, who we'd better take seriously, later in the week.

7. Anyone have a parking pass that will go to waste Saturday if you don't give it to me?

Monday, October 19, 2009

Top 5 wins of the Brooks era

Saturday's huge win got me thinking about the best wins of the Rich Brooks era and where the game might fall on that list. Over the last few days I've given it some thought. A couple of notes. I think #1 and #2 are set in stone. The rest vary depending on your criteria. There were wins that were big upsets, wins that weren't necessarily unexpected but happened unexpectedly, and wins that were huge at the time but seem smaller in retrospect. Secondly, I began with the reflexive conclusion that every big win of the Brooks era occurred either during or since the 2006 season. I was not wrong. If you don't think we've come very far, take a look at the 2003, 2004 and 2005 wins and losses. We were abysmal.

Without further adieu:
1. October 13, 2007-Kentucky 43, LSU 37 (3OT). Duh. Cats beat the then #1 and eventual national champion Bayou Bengals. A couple of lost facts: Oft maligned Lones Seiber sent the game into the third OT by nailing a 43 yarder. Cats were without Rafael Little and were led in rushing by then freshman Derrick Locke, who had 64 yards and a score.

2. September 15, 2007-Kentucky 40, U of L 34. Best atmosphere at Commonwealth since I've been in Kentucky. Arch rival comes in at #9 in the country, fresh off a 12-1 Orange Bowl winning season. They are thinking national championship. Some could say the win is tainted by Louisville falling into a wormhole, losing to Syracuse the following week, and finishing 6-6. Not me, because I'll never forget the feeling of watching Andre hit a wide open Stevie down the left sideline with less than a minute left.

3. November 4, 2oo6-Kentucky 24, UGA 20. First real judgment call here. This win gets the edge because it ushered in the "New Kentucky" era. The Cats broke a nine game losing streak to the Dogs. Also, Andre Woodson outplayed his Georgia counterpart, a freshman by the name of Matthew Stafford. Stafford threw three picks that afternoon, Tony Dixon scored with a minute left, and the goalposts came down.

4. October 19, 2009- Kentucky 21-Auburn 14. Best road win of the Brooks era. Still too recent to put into proper perspective. To say the chips were down for the Cats going into last Saturday is an understatement. To say we played about as well as we could have possibly played that evening is about right. Incredible night.

5. December 29, 2006-Kentucky 28, Clemson 20 (Music City Bowl). Subsequent bowl trips have been less climactic due to all the suspensions for Florida State in 2007 and the Conference USA opponent in 2008. But the first Music City Bowl win was impactful. I walked into that game with a "just happy to be here" vibe and was surprised to win. This game gave the players confidence and helped put the program in the position its in now.

Honorable mention: UK 21-Ark 20 (Hartline 2 TD to Cobb in last five minutes 2008); UK 42-Ark 29 (at Arkansas 2007, we rose to #8 after this win); UK 25-East Carolina 19 (fun, fun, fun comeback in Memphis in 2008).

Discuss.

Is Rich Brooks reading UK Football Fan?

Of course not, but this bears mention. If I were a better writer and didn't waste so many words, we'd have said the same thing.

Here was my post this morning as it related to Will Fidler:

Sometimes things don't go your way as an athlete. Hearing that he wasn't starting this game had to be crushing for Will. As a fourth year senior, his chance had finally come, until he learned that his freshman teammate who had never thrown a college pass was taking what I'm sure he thought was a spot he'd earned. Will kept his head up and delivered when he was called upon. I feel great for him.


As reported by John Clay, here was what Rich Brooks said about Will at today's press luncheon:

“I couldn’t be proud of Will Fidler if he were my own son. It hasn’t gone his way, so to speak. But he’s come out every day and competes and works to get it done. . . . Last week was the ultimate slap in the face for him when we elected to start the freshman quarterback and he handled it well.”

While we are here, I cannot imagine a higher compliment to get from your head coach.

Sunday, October 18, 2009

Saturday Review-Look ahead

How about that? Yesterday, I said the Cats would need to play a near perfect game to win, and I was about right. I cannot remember a game where a team did not commit a penalty. Add to that some great D, tremendous running and run blocking, and just enough passing game to keep Auburn's defense honest, and you have a huge SEC road win, a potential season altering momentum swing, and one of the five or six best wins of the Rich Brooks era.


There is a lot to go over and a lot of love to spread around. I'll start with Will Fidler. Sometimes things don't go your way as an athlete. Hearing that he wasn't starting this game had to be crushing for Will. As a fourth year senior, his chance had finally come, until he learned that his freshman teammate who had never thrown a college pass was taking what I'm sure he thought was a spot he'd earned. Will kept his head up and delivered when he was called upon. I feel great for him.



As I said before the game Randall Cobb and Derrick Locke are All-SEC talents. The world is about to know it soon. I think Cobb is a four year player here, and I think when he is done he goes down as one of the best to ever wear Blue and White.



The Offensive line is the most underrated aspect of the team. We've run successfully against nearly every team on the schedule. That is because of these guys. Between the legs of Cobb and Locke, and the holes the line is opening up, this team has found its identity.



Obviously the defense played well, with Warford back the secondary was much improved. Yesterday belonged to the linebackers, particularly OLB's Danny Travathan and Sam Maxwell, who joined Micah as leading tacklers this week.



Finally, I cannot say enough about the special teams. Steve Ortmeyer has them rounding into fine form. We had one field goal attempt that was not blocked and run back for a touchdown, and for the first straight week, all of the Cat's punts went for at least double digit yards.



Okay, so it isn't all gushing. While I am picking nits, Winston Guy needs to stop headhunting and start hitting and wrapping. One, he is going to hurt himself or someone else, and two, he is missing sure tackles while trying to create highlights.



Anyway, this is one hell of a win. When you consider how badly the deck was stacked against them, the Cats really did have what ESPN.com's SEC blogger termed the "gutsiest win in the SEC this year".



In the context of the whole season, this is a very good thing. If you'd asked me point blank before the season started, I would have been very happy with 3-3 at this point. Looking back at my preseason predictions, I did have UK winning this game. But I didn't know then that Auburn would be 5-1 and only one week removed from being #17 in the country then. In fact, I did not have Auburn going to a bowl in the preseason.



We line up with what looks like four straight winnable games. This weekend, I hope, will not be a toe stub. The Cats need to move the chains, put some points on the board, and tear the hearts out of ULA-Monroe early.


Next comes an intriguing matchup against a pretty fair Mississippi State team. New coach Dan Mullins has these guys playing ball. The Bulldogs came within a foot of beating LSU and were tied with Houston going into the fourth quarter last week. They have manhandled Vandy and taken care of non conference opponents thus far. Don't forget it was Mississippi State that came into Commonwealth in 2007 and stunned the best UK team this decade 31-14, ruining our chance at a special season. I'd like to see this game played at night. We'll find that out tomorrow. This should be the toughest of the four games, and assuming nothing goes haywire next week, we are probably 3-4 point favorites.



EKU should provide a safe win and pave the way for a November 14th roadie at Vandy. I expected this to be a big game, but the 'Dores are reeling at 2-5, and have South Carolina, Georgia Tech and Florida over the next three weeks. Bowl eligibility will probably be out the window, but the chance to play spoiler for a team that has spoiled a lot of its seasons will not be. On the other hand, Vandy may have thrown in the towel by then. We won't know that until we get down there, so I wouldn't take it lightly.

More to come this week. It is starting to get interesting.

Saturday, October 17, 2009

Uk at Auburn

Certainly, today is a more mellow Saturday in UK Football Fan land. My string of attending every game of the year draws to a close today. I'll be watching the game from the comfort of my in-laws living room. This should be one of the more intriguing contests of recent vintage. Morgan Newton is the most highly regarded Quarterback we've recruited since Tim Couch. Though the circumstances that brought this about are the best, I think many Cats fans are anxious to see what we have. Unfortunately, whoever is playing QB tonight has his work cut out for him. Make no mistake, the Cats will have to catch lightening in a bottle to win. A number of things need to go right.

1. Effective quarterback play. We don't need to throw for 300 yards, but we'll need enough of a passing game to keep Auburn from loading up the box with 8-9 guys every play.

2. Improved play on special teams. This is becoming a real sticking point for me, because I think the situation has a simple fix. Steve Ortmeyer has to get these kids to play better for him. If Auburn starts every drive at the 50, it will be a long night.

3. Look for the ball. Our young corners did a good job of sticking to their men last week. The reason they were torched was not turning around and giving themselves a chance to make a play on the ball. Chris Todd is very comparable to USC's Stephen Garcia. He is more than capable of exploiting us.

4. Locke and Cobb. These guys have All-SEC talent. One or both really needs to get down for us to win.

5. Turnover battle. Cats won this 2-0 last week, which is the only reason were were still in it to the end.

6. Big play. In a closely related point, the Cats need a huge play on defense to compensate for what should be a rather difficult game on O. Without Trevard, it is hard to tell who this might come from.

If all of these things happen, we win, but I pretty much think we will need them all. As I said, lightning in a bottle. Good luck to Fidler, Newton, or both.

Monday, October 12, 2009

Hartline post

Today comes the news that Mike Hartline is out for several weeks, if not the season, with a torn MCL, partially torn PCL and cartilage damage. The Kentucky quarterback drama has played out in an almost Shakespearean fashion. Fans have called for Hartline to be replaced for most of his career. I myself said last Friday that Brooks should give someone else time in the USC game if Hartline was laying an egg.

Of course, we know that isn't what happened. Hartline was playing the game of his life when fate intervened, his knee bent grotesquely underneath him on a play that should have been blown dead before it developed. Though not in the way any sane person had hoped for, many would get their wish that someone else would be playing quarterback for Kentucky by game's end.

Side note here: Corey Peters was quoted in the paper Sunday as saying that the fans had gotten what they'd wanted, which I read to mean that they wanted Hartline injured. I think that is a load of crap, and Brooks should not let his players blast the fans in the media like this. Unlike Tennessee fans and their boy Jonathan Crompton, I've never heard one person suggest he or she wanted to see Hartline hurt. He is a good kid who has done nothing but work hard. Wanting to see him replaced is a far cry from wishing for this.

So, if not Shakespeare, it is at least a Twilight Zone episode. An Alanis Morisette, if not textbook definition, version of irony. Karma for the fans. Call it what you will. I think it sucks, because even as someone who did not have a ton of confidence in Hartline, I knew that if Fidler or someone else went in and played poorly, the coaches could chalk it up as a failed experiment and put Hartline back in. That cannot happen now. Plus, I feel horrible for Hartline, a kid who has already had to put up with more than any recent Kentucky athlete not named Saul Smith.

So, what to do? Brooks has said, and I totally agree with him, that he is not going to go with Randall Cobb as a full-time QB. Too much is invested in the downfield passing offense, and Cobb is too valuable in his other roles. What do I think the staff should do? Drumroll . . . . .

I don't have the foggiest idea. And you know why? Because I have never seen Morgan Newton throw a pass except on ESPNU against a high school team, and unless someone surprising is reading this blog, neither have you. People have been calling for him all year, but the truth is, we have no idea how ready he is to play because we aren't at the practices. I trust this coaching staff to make the right decision about who is best to put on the field. My hope is, however, that they are willing to be flexible.

That is because another dynamic is at work here. I never played college football, but I've been on dozens of sports teams in every other imaginable level and something always rings true. While one can predict game success by how a player practices, it is never a certainty. Players disappoint and surprise daily.

The guess here is that Will Fidler starts under center Saturday. The staff won't want to put the pressure of a roadie against a stinging Auburn squad on a true freshman. If we are losing badly and Fidler struggles, the redshirt will come off and Newton finishes the game, then is your starter in what should be a confidence building turn against Louisiana Monroe. Cobb will have an expanded role at QB, and may take as many as half of the snaps, but the game will not get turned over to him completely unless both the other guys are abysmal.`

Unless Fidler can be successful, there is little to lose by playing Newton. Either he proves himself and competes for a job through the end of the year and into next year, or he is not near the quarterback Hartline is and redshirts next year while Hartline starts as a senior.

Like everything else with UK Football, though, it is never easy.

Sunday, October 11, 2009

USC

Needless to say, today is a day to play the old "iffin" game.

*If we were healthy at corner.
*If we had the ability to defend a kickoff return.
*If Cobb had played the whole second half at QB.
*If we had a team that did not commit silly penalties in clutch situations.
*If we had gone out of the Wildcat on the two point conversion.
*If we hadn't dropped two sure touchdown catches.

There was so much more today. Nothing more important than the cruel godsmack layed down by Kentucky fans. We don't want Mike Hartline as our QB, huh? Well how about we get to watch him play the best half of football in his career, then go down to a season ending (yes, I said it) injury. We wanted a new solution? Well, now we'll have to come up with one. It may not be what we'd all hoped for.

One thing that bears mention? Hartline was hurt on a play that should have been blown dead before it happened. Either too much time or false start (I cannot remember which) on us. The ball should have never been snapped due to a whistle. Why the whole thing was allowed to develop is beyond me.

Finally, Kentucky is lucky to have Randall Cobb in our uniform. It is that simple. There are better football players. Many are bigger. Many are faster. Some have more gaudy stats. Many will go higher in the draft and have more accolades. But you'd be hard pressed to find a player in the country who is more important to his team. It is Tebow'esque. Don't believe me? We'll debate it, because now is not the time to spell it out.

Once again, against this team we played well enough to win. Again, we did not. Next week presents us another chance against a now more vulnerable looking Auburn.

Friday, October 9, 2009

Guys Trip

Since the whole point of this site is to catch the UK Football experience through the viewpoint of a fan, I guess a word or three is due on my trip to Columbia this weekend to see the Cats take on the Cocks. Last year, I read a book by a young, southern lawyer who took a fall season and attended a game in every SEC venue, some while following his beloved Tennessee Vols, others out of necessity just to finish the trip. Having only ever gone to Vandy to see a road game (and attended Alabama games in Tuscaloosa as a child) I decided the least I could was to duplicate the trip, albeit over the next ten years. The trip to Columbia is the first in what will hopefully be a long line of fun jaunts.

This weekend I am travelling with the boys. As it turns out, two great law school friends (Big Z and Todd) are coming with me from KY and my cousin, Ap (or with apologies to Tucker Max TheCousin) is meeting up with us from Atlanta, where the Danville native is doing some sort of complicated radiology fellowship. Todd and Dave are two of my best (and funniest) friends, and Ap is the brother I never had. So there is almost no way I have a bad time.

Unlike my usual bowl plans, I have very little in the can for this trip. Well, not exactly true. I was able to get killer hotel rooms nine months out. The Courtyard by Marriott Downtown for $115 a night. Two miles from the stadium, right off campus, and very close to the Columbia bar and restaurant scene. Visitors tickets in the lower level courtesy of the asking based on my season tickets at UK and a simple request in July. All in all a good deal. I think that we will try to tailgate tomorrow with a group of UK alumni from "SC Upstate", which Todd learned about today from checking on the plain ole UK alumni web site. Good shit.

Beyond that, though, no restaurant reservations or any other plans for where to be when.

And yes, there is a football game to be played. Vegas has decided that USC is a good team and that we are not. It is USC -9 1/2. That is a chump line, in my opinion. Even with our two starting corners out, this game could go either way. No one really knows how good or bad UK is. We got the dropsys and made the UofL game close. Other than that, we've lost to two vastly superior teams and beaten an over matched one. S Carolina is proven, but it could play well or poorly, depending on the day. They are a clear step down from our last two opponents. There is no reason why UK cannot compete in this game.

That said, Mike Hartline needs to have a decent game tomorrow. If he looks awful, the Cats are justified in trying someone else at QB against Auburn, and giving that person a lot more time against ULA-Monroe the following week if he is successful. I am saying they are justified, I am not saying that it will actually happen. It won't.

Last year I woke up the morning of the UK-USC game and knew that Captain Munnerlyn was going to kill us. I was right, but it wasn't some grand prophecy. It was because he had killed us for his whole career. Munnerlyn is gone, but Eric Norwood is still very much a Cock. I'd fear #40 all day tomorrow. Let's hope for the best, and know that either way, it will be a good weekend for UK Football Fan.

Tuesday, October 6, 2009

Three Points on a Tuesday

*A perusal of defensive statistics thus far in the year. Obviously, MLB Micah Johnson leads the team in tackles with 33. SS Calvin Harrison and FS Winston Guy are tied for second with 29 a piece. OLB Danny Trevathan is a distant fourth with 23, followed by OLB Sam Maxwell with 19. Two outside backers who play basically the entire game are well behind a couple of safeties who are splitting time with Matt Lentz and Ashton Cobb. The trend means something obvious. The Cats are giving up too many long plays and are not stopping enough people with their front 7.

*Trevard Lindley is out for the game against South Carlina, and CB Paul Warford is questionable. One of the pre-season rallying cries, along with the improvement of Hartline and the alleged studliness of Juco transfer Chris Matthews, was the depth in the secondary. Well, we've seen these other two issues exposed as myths thus far. We need one to hold.

*Mike Hartline's passer rating of 112.7 leaves him 93rd out of 114 Division 1A QB, and behind UT whipping boy Jonathan Crompton. Of course, he is the only QB who had to play Florida and Alabama in back to back weeks. For the record, I did not think the stache played that poorly against Florida. His picks were late in the game and he threw some good balls early on that didn't pan out. In contrast, I started to turn a bit on Mike during the Alabama game. The picks were all horrendous and the offense just seemed to run better when he wasn't in there. I am not quite ready to throw in the towel due to who we've played in the last two weeks. But I am starting to believe I was right about Mike Hartline.

Saturday, October 3, 2009

Saturday Brain Dump

First of all, UK Football Fan was totally on ice for the last two weeks. I apologize. Both work and real life intervened at the same time, leaving me too frazzled to write by the end of every day for the last two weeks. Here are some nuggets for a Saturday, UK-Ala. game day morning. I'll catch up on a couple of thoughts.

*I was as disappointed as everyone else with the game last week. It is one thing to get beat physically and with speed against Florida. If you cannot see the talent discrepancy on the field, then you don't know much about football. But I cannot excuse the lack of execution and the fact that we were not ready to play. You cannot be lining up wrong in the SEC, playing the number one team in the nation.

*You look at a team like Missouri, who has been able to compete in the Big 12 for the last few years. They cannot recruit like the teams in Texas and Oklahoma, so there will always be a talent gap. But they have good schemes, particularly on offense, and they GO OUT AND EXECUTE. To make the next step as a program, UK has to stop giving it away. It is that simple.
*Chris Matthews has lost his starting spot this week because of his play in the Alabama game. The media have mentioned that he ran a couple of bad routes and lined up wrong on several occasions. I saw something else that as a football guy was a much bigger transgression. In the second quarter, Matthews ran a fly pattern down the right sideline, got a half step on the corner and Hartline overthrew him slightly. Chris turned his head and glanced at the safety who was coming over to hit him if he got to the ball. It was very subtle, but I talked to a friend at halftime who saw the same thing. Rather than selling out for the ball, Matthews broke stride and let it fall to the ground. In addition to executing, we have to have some heart and courage to win in the SEC East. Plays like that won't get it done.

*On the same note, I wasn't nearly as disappointed with Hartline's play as others were. His two picks were awful, but they were well after the game was decided. The first quarter was no more his fault than it was mine or yours.

*Looking forward, I've talked on this site about what a brutal four game stretch this would be. The only thing keeping Auburn and South Carolina out of the top 25 right now is that they didn't start higher. USC light is coming off a big win against Ole Miss and between them the teams have one loss (USC@Georgia, in a game it had a chance to win on the last series). Brutal schedule. Taking one of these is looking like a tall order. Still, that is why they line 'em up and play.

*With all this on the horizon, I'd just like to see us play better today. Move the chains some, not commit stupid penalties, make some sure tackles on D. We've been pretty good over the last three years about not throwing in back to back clunkers. Last year we ended the year poorly against Vandy and UT, but I think that was as much about fatigue as anything.

*I am taking my son to the game today. I'm pumped about this. It is the first time just he and I have gone and the first time I think he'll really remember going to the game with me. My Dad started taking me to Alabama games (we lived in Tuscaloosa then) when I was about Ethan's age. I don't remember much other than that Alabama always seemed to win, the crowd was loud, and my favorite player was a white WR named Major Oglivie. But I did love going to those games with my Dad. So there is a nice symmetry to me taking E to the Alabama game today.

* Speaking of my son, I had two thoughts as I watched Tim Tebow lay on the ground last week. The first was, "Am I so sure I want my son to play football?". The second was "If he doesn't get up, I am going be reminded of this moment for the rest of my life." As much as I loved the hit, I completely forgot I was watching a football game and was about as worried as I've ever been for someone I don't actually know in my whole life.

*I am heading down to Columbia with my friends The Todd and Big Z next week, meeting up with my cousin Ap who is coming over from Atlanta. I don't know how the game will turn out but the weekend is going to turn out great.

*We are right for the fight today.
 
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