Friday, January 1, 2010

2010 Preview

As we start 2010 and UK Football Fan winds down, it is time to talk about next season. Right now, the coaching situation still hangs in the air. I believe the longer this drags on the more likely Rich Brooks is returning. My guess is things are going on behind the scenes. Barnhart was recently quoted in the Herald Leader regarding his desire for Brooks to return AND defending the athletic department's support of the football program. This smacks of some back room dealing and Brooks using whatever leverage he can to improve the support of the program.

I personally hate to see PawPaw go out on a sour note, and I'd like to see him take the victory lap he deserves. Announcing that 2010 will be his last year would be the way to go. I also think right now, with players and fans alike questioning the play calling, is not the best timing for Joker taking over the program. We'll see.

Looking to 2010, the first thing that strikes me is how well the schedule sets up. Alabama falls off, and is replaced by Ole Miss. The Cats get a couple of their middling opponents, Auburn and South Carolina, at home. Two games we seem destined to lose anyway (Florida and Tennessee) will be on the road. Finally, Akron, Western Kentucky and Charleston Southern don't exactly strike fear in the hearts of men. Louisville will be improved under Charlie Strong (now I can say it, yes Kraigthorpe had to go), but the boys in red will have a talent gap to overcome still when playing the Cats for the next year or two.

It appears that Morgan Newton will have the inside track on the quarterback position, what with Mike Hartline not even getting off the bench in the Music City Bowl. If the Cats cannot open the playbook any more than they did under Newton this year, I implore them to go in a different direction. Despite the five wins we eecked out under Morgan, the offense looked positively Uzelacian. If we cannot do more than run quarterback draws and throw screens on passing downs, we are in trouble. I like Morgan Newton and Mike Hartline both very much. I just hope someone steps up to the plate, be it one of them or Ryan Mossakowski.

The offense line is losing a lot, but we'll be in better shape than most people think. Stuart Hines will be an All-SEC candidate next year. Brad Durham, though not technically a returning starter, played a lot of football for us this year. Matt Smith, Marcus Davis, Jake Lanefski and Sam Simpson will all challenge for time on the interior line, and Larry Warford and/or Billy Joe Murphy will probably step up big at tackle. It may take some time, but I think a new unit will gel nicely by the meat of the schedule.

As I've mentioned previously, the WRs will be the strength of the offense next year, assuming someone can get them the ball. I'd love to see Cobb have a legitimate #1 receiver season, catching 50-60 balls. He has it in him. I like Chris Matthews and Larod King as #2 and 3 receivers with another year under their belts. Tight end is a question mark, but then again, it has been since Jacob Tamme departed. I'd like to see Brooks and Co. move sure handed walk-on Nick Melillo to that spot and see what he can do.

Derrick Locke and the Turtle can hold it down in the backfield. Of course, the Cats will have to replace Fullback John Conner, who is graduating along with AJ Nance, his #1 backup.

On defense, it is the ultimate case of good news/bad news. On the front, the Cats lose defensive MVP-DT Corey Peters. The good news: this was probably the deepest position on the team. Starter Ricky Lumpkin and contributors Mark Crawford and Shane McCord all return. At end, Dequin Evans and Taylor Windham, two unexpected revelations in 2009 will form a pretty good tandem. Chandler Burden gives us experienced depth.

The big question mark is Linebacker, where the Cats must replace All-Sec performers Sam Maxwell and Micah Johnson. Danny Trevathan will return as a starter on the weak side. He is poised for a breakout year. Presumably Ronnie Snead will start in the middle. He performed well when called upon this year. The strongside spot would appear to be wide open. Jacob Dufrene filled in for Maxwell in the Music City Bowl and I honestly don't remember seeing him in on a play. Ridge Wilson will also get a look here. The staff is also high on Qua Huzzie, though it is hard to see both he and Trevathan starting unless Danny puts on some weight and is moved to the strong side. Obviously, whoever plays will be filling some big shoes.

The secondary should be another strength for the Cats. Randall Burdon and Paul Warford have played a ton football for us and should wear the role of full-time CB starters well. There is depth at the position with guys like Martavious Neloms and Cartier Rice having been forced to fill in this year with all the injuries. Winston Guy is a potential star at free safety. Big Blue Nation was poised for Guy to blow up last year with all the hype the coaches heaped on him. He has a solid, if unspectacular year. Maybe this is the year. Matt Lentz is ready to be a full time starter at SS, but I can see some other guys like Greg Wilson getting a look here as well.

So there we go. Says here the difference between 5 and 8 regular season wins is finding a quarterback competent enough in the downfield passing game that we can go back to running a regular offense. Filling the other holes is important, but I have enough confidence in our newfound depth and recruiting success that I think those things will take care of themselves.

Have a Happy New Year.

4 comments:

Brant Welch said...

Good stuff, Alex. Yes, I didn't know the schedule set up so nicely. I was really disappointed in the safety play this year. Safeties and WRs have to step up, IMO.

Anonymous said...

I am less sanguine about the O line, even with a quarterback, if the line can't pass block or open holes for Locke, we are in deep kimchi. The O line saved our butts more times than not this year. Quarterback is key, I don't see any of our current three being able to throw the ball. Chris Mathews doesn't impress me, he hears footsteps and dodges getting hit, rather than catching the ball and taking the consequences. Not a good reciever strategy. They have go to get the ball to Cobb, in the flat, screens, on the fly, corner routes, doesn't make any difference, if it is close he will catch it and likely make some yards after the catch!

Well, I think that Brooks needs to step down, but deals are being made, Brooks is like a father to Barnhart, who will do what Brooks wants, so the 80% puts the pressure on Barnhart. I am not sure that Joker can do it, I give you the offensive decisions in the closing two minutes of the Tennessee game, one of the worst offensive sets of calls I ever got saw. But, it is time.

DeanCDurbin said...

Alex,
I agree that the schedule sets up much more favorably for us. I'm not as concerned about O-Line as most people. However, I'm being dead serious when I say this....Micah Johnson was our 3rd best LB this year, and we honestly will probably not lose anything if Huzzie steps up like a think he will. Micah is a good run stopper, but CONSTANTLY out of position. Maxwell & Peters will be our biggest loss on the Defensive side, because we really never had the REAL #32 all year long due to the high ankle sprain. Our biggest loss on offense will be Zipp Duncan and John Conner, in my opinion. Ukwu, Wyndham, C. Burden, (possibly Donte Rumph), Lumpkin should come back bigger & stronger.
Also, regardless of who starts (I personally have been to several practices & I've got my dollar on Mossakowski) the QB position will be a definite upgrade, the "training wheels" are coming off one way or the other.
I predict we win all 4 OOC games, Vandy/USCjr/Auburn or Georgia (3-1 at home) & steal one in Oxford, Starkville or Knoxville.....8-4 (possibly 9-3 with some good breaks) Outback or Chick Fil-A Bowl.

PS~I can't wait to see EJ Fields, Jonathan George and more Donald Russell next year.

Dave Zahniser said...

I always thought the Cats had a better chance at a good season in even years, when Fla. and UT were road games. Like you, I also figured those games as losses.

Barnhart should engineer Brooks's ouster (hopefully with a gracious retirement announcement) and immediately hire Mike Leach. If that means losing Joker, so be it.

 
Site Meter