Friday, October 1, 2010

Look at the week after Florida 2006-2009

Yesterday I alluded to a hypothesis about our annual beatdown by Florida. My feeling is that the game generally has little to do with what happens the rest of the season. The possible reasons for this are hard to swallow, it is either about an ever present and insurmountable talent gap or that this is the one game, year in and year out, that the Cats don't believe they can win. Whatever the reason, I thought it might be interesting to test the hypothesis by looking at the week after Florida in the New Kentucky (2006-present) era.

September 23, 2006
Lost at Florida 26-7 to fall to 2-2. Cats played okay against eventual national champs. Were winning the game 7-6 with a minute left in the first half.

Following Week
UK defeats Dan LeFevour led Central Michigan 45-36. After a weak game against the Gators, Andre Woodson and the UK offense came alive with four TDs through the air.

Rest of the story
UK would sustain a 24-17 home loss to USC the next week, then suffer a now well chronicled 49-0 beat down at LSU before going on a streak that would usher in a series of four straight bowl trips.

October 20, 2007
In one of the most electric games in Commonwealth Stadium history, then #7 (but 7pt. underdog) Cats lose 45-37 to eventual Heisman trophy winner Tim Tebow and a Gator team that would finish the season 9-4. This was the week after the epic LSU win with the Gameday crew in tow. Cats fall to 6-2 and drop to #15 or thereabouts the following week.

Following Week
UK crapped the bed with a 31-14 home loss to Mississippi State, arguably ruining what could have been a pretty special season.

Rest of the story
Cats limped home the rest of the way (1- 2 with Vandy the lone victory) before scoring an anticlimactic MCB win over depleted Florida State.

October 25, 2008
Cats fall 63-5 at the Swamp in the most embarrassing loss of the Cats' four year bowl run. If you don't remember this game, here are three words for you, "blocked punt orgy". We were riding pretty high coming into this game, having just scored our fifth win with an improbable comeback against Arkansas.

Following week
UK wins 14-13 uglyfest at Mississippi State. Get bowl eligible at 6-3.

Rest of the story
Regular season falls apart when Cats let one get away against Georgia then play abysmally against the Tennessee schools. Fun comeback win against East Carolina in Liberty ends season on a high note.

October 26, 2009
Cats look like crap again in a 41-7 home loss. Sole highlight of the game comes when Tim Tebow gets absolutely laid out by Taylor Windham, but even that moment is ruined by the aftermath when the icon remained motionless for what seemed like an hour. Moment redeemed somewhat by him barfing in a bag.

Following week
Crappy scheduling, Cats look better, but still take a beating from eventual national champion Alabama.

Rest of the story
Switch gets flipped the following week when Hartline goes out for the season in a tight loss to USC. Cats pull off a couple of sweet road upsets and go 5-2 the rest of the regular season.

Analysis: UK has competed once in this game in four years, and had its worst finish despite having had its best team. Otherwise, we've managed to play pretty well the following week and in 2006 and 2009, we put a crappy game behind us to finish the whole season strong.

Now lets go beat Ole Miss.

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