Bowl Projection Post

We've come to the part of the year where UK Football Fan really has to earn its keep. As the plot thickens on the bowl season, here is a look at where I project the SEC going. I've tried to construct a scenario in my head that could put UK above the Tennessee-Alabama trio of lower tiered bowls. The Cats currently sit 9th in the SEC Bowl pecking order, ahead of Vandy and UT (which are very unlikely to become bowl eligible) and Ole Miss (which might). I assume the SEC will get 2 teams in the BCS. The reasons why that is almost a lock could use their own post, but trust me. Assuming that is true, the Cats would need to move up to 7th in the pecking order to get to either the Gator or Chick-Fil-A Bowls.

Any scenario that gets us out of Tennessee will involve the Cats winning out. There are 7 SEC teams who are basically guaranteed 7 wins at this point, so it is safe to say that a 6-6 Cats team isn't going to be invited to a bowl over one of them.

Who to jump? The most likely candidate is Georgia, who sits at 4-5, 3-4 in the SEC, with Idaho St., @Auburn and Georgia Tech remaining. Though it currently has a much better league record, I'd argue that Georgia has a much tougher road to 7-5 than do the Cats. They will not be an attractive bowl team as I'd assume their fan base has about had it.

The next most likely candidate is Mississippi State, which is 7-2, 3-2 but must close @Alabama, Arkansas, @Ole Miss. If the Dawgs lose out and we win out, we will have identical 7-5, 3-5 records. Sure, they beat us head to head and have more impressive wins on the resume. But that isn't what bowl scouts are looking for. The Dawgs play boring football and are basically on par with UK from a prestige standpoint. If the Gator Bowl is forced to choose between these two teams, it could easily opt for the Cats, whose fans historically travel well. Note, however, that Starkville is a couple hours closer to Jacksonville by car than is Lexington.

The only other team that could be leapfrogged is Arkansas, and that seems unlikely. The Razorbacks are 6-2, 3-2 but will be girding their loins jockeying for position among the mid-tier SEC schools over the season's final weeks. They still have to play @South Carolina, @Mississippi State and at home against LSU, and could very easily lose all three. However, Arkansas still has a guaranteed win on its schedule against UTEP and with Ryan Mallett still a huge draw, would appear to be more attractive even if both they and the Cats are 7-5.

So, truth be told, the Cats' bowl situation is probably immutable, unless it cannot get a sixth win. (On a side note, go ahead and circle November 13th on your calender. Lose that game, and the Joker Phillips era might be over before it really begins). Here is where I project things currently:

1. Auburn- National Championship
2. Alabama- Sugar Bowl
3. LSU-Capital One
4. Florida/South Carolina Winner- Outback
5. Arkansas-Cotton
6. Florida/South Carolina loser- Chick-Fil-A
7. Mississippi State- Gator
8. Georgia- Music City
9. Kentucky-Liberty
No qualifier for Birmingham Bowl