Updated Bowl Projections

All in all, this weekend's games did have somewhat of an impact on the SEC bowl picture. LSU's defeat of Alabama takes the latter out of national championship picture. Though the Bayou Bengals could be in line for a Sugar Bowl birth, it is unlikely that they can get to the National Championship game themselves. With TCU tearing #5 Utah apart yesterday and Alabama losing again, a one loss SEC team probably can't do it.

SEC fans should be hoping for Auburn and LSU to win out. In that scenario, Auburn would obviously play for the national title and LSU would almost certainly be snapped up by the Sugar Bowl. Even if Auburn were to lose in the SEC Championship after winning out in the regular season, the SEC should still get 2 in the BCS. At that point the SEC East team would go to the Sugar (it is an automatic bid), and Auburn 12-1 with the Heisman Trophy winner on its roster would probably still get an At-large BCS bid.

Things could get dicey, though, if Auburn loses to Alabama but then goes on to win the SEC Championship. Then Auburn is Sugar Bowl bound and LSU or Alabama would be fighting for BCS scraps. Boise State and TCU are virtual locks, which leaves only 2 At-large BCS spots. The Big 10 has a trio of one loss teams, Ohio State, Michigan State and Wisconsin. The PAC-10 has Stanford, which would be a natural substitute pick for the Rose Bowl if Oregon goes to the National Championship.

If you want to get all starry eyed, I guess you could argue that South Carolina's loss to Arkansas puts the Gamecocks back in the Cats crosshairs. There is still a good chance that USC falls to 7-5 and would no longer be a clear better choice. In that scenario, assuming 2 in the BCS, my current projection would be:

Auburn and LSU-BCS
Alabama-Capital One
Arkansas-Cotton
Florida-Outback
Mississippi State-Chick-Fil-A

The Gator would then be choosing between 7-5 Kentucky and a 7-5 South Carolina. Under this scenario, we would have ended the season with 3 straight wins, including a historical victory over UT. USC would have lost 3 of its last 4 and basically have free fallen once again after another great start. Bad news: Geography. Columbia is a lot closer to Jacksonville than Lexington. Parts of South Carolina are only about 3 hours away by car. Worse news: This assumes Kentucky can win out, which is far from a given at this point.

As I mentioned last week, Mississippi State could still lose out an fall to 7-5. At this point, I think it is more likely that USC will lose to Florida and Clemson, making them a better leapfrog possibility.

The point has been made several times that the Liberty Bowl and the UK-U of L Football game are at the same time on December 31st. Truth be told, I have no earthly clue how that will impact the process.

You'll note that I changed things up a bit this week. And if you are looking at this critically, you'll see that yes, there is a chance that UK could get to 6-6 and still be shut out of the SEC bowls.


Without further adieu:

National Championship
Auburn

Sugar
LSU

Capital One
Alabama

Cotton
Arkansas

Outback
Florida/USC winner

Chick-Fil-A
Mississippi State

Gator
Florida/USC loser

Music City
Tennessee

Liberty
Georgia

Birmingham Bowl
Kentucky