Wednesday, September 17, 2008

First Quarter

A quarter of the way through the regular season, this team is about as advertised. In fact, with the dual (and dueling) exceptions of the unbelievable defensive performance against Louisville and the general inability to establish a running game, I am surprised by little. Before the season, most guessed them finishing anywhere from 4-8 to 7-5, with a regression to the mean. Three games into the season, little has changed, except that we have managed to win a game most thought would be a coin flip, and an opponent once thought to supply a safe win has looked better than us (Vandy). Seems every positive is balanced out by a negative.

Plus: Mike Hartline seems to have settled in. He has yet to throw an interception.
Minus: A team billed as having four solid tailbacks does not appear to have one who is a legitimate SEC starter. Poor blocking aside, a good running back either makes a guy miss or breaks a tackle now and again. That isn't happening for anyone, even my man Derrick Locke.

Plus: Tim Mastay has been a godsend, booming punts and kickoffs, and allowing us many field position luxuries.
Minus: Lonas Seiber has been so shaky that his position is now wide open.

Plus: In terms of scoring defense, the Cats have been money, giving up only 6.3 points a game.
Minus: MTSU threw for 353 yards. It isn't the last spread offense the Cats will see

Plus: Hartline has had time to pass, even against Louisville.
Minus: The Cats run blocking has been pitiful. A particularly bad sign when a teams intends to rely on its quarterback to simply manage a game.

Plus: The Cats have withstood an injury to their best offensive lineman, who should be back by the next game.
Minus: Three key players, including two who are among the 10 most important on the team, are out indefinately with high ankle sprains. (While we are here, I am surprised more is not being made of losing Micah Johnson and Randall Cobb in the same half. I think the Johnson loss is worse than the casual fan realizes)

Plus: Dicky Lyons has been a consistant safety blanket.
Minus: The rest of the receivers have been hard to watch at times.

Plus: The Cats got a boost from Cobb, who might be the game changer who allows us the chance to pull a big upset or two over the next four years.
Minus: Senior leadership on the team seems far less evident than in years past. Certainly a big switch from 2007.

I still think this team will finish 6-6, with the most likely victories to come against Western, Arkansas and Vandy (who I still say we manage to beat at Commonwealth). I won't count out the USC or Mississippi State games, but would certainly not bet them straight up if asked to do so today. A lot of football to be played.

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

According to the Sagarin rankings, we have five more teams on our schedule that we should beat (after adjusting for home-field). That would make us 8-4. Vandy, MSU, and USC are all in that category, as is Arkansas.

Anonymous said...

Lousiville winning last night should help our computer rankings, strength of schedule, etc.

 
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