The landscape in the SEC changed slightly over the weekend. My bowl picks were impacted primarily by the Florida-LSU and Auburn-Arkansas games, as well as by Vandy's loss. To eyeball the remaining SEC schedule, making some fairly standard assumptions about home teams winning winnable games and being optimistic about SEC teams getting by conference foes, one thing emerges. There are a number of teams that could finish 5-7 or 6-6 (including UK). Some of the bowls that have typically gotten fairly good teams might get mediocre ones, and the middle of the pack teams could be lobbying for much better bowls with comparable resumes. Also clear: With all the mediocrity, a win over South Carolina would have given us the inside track on an Outback or Chick-Fil-A appearance. Not to say we would have gotten there, but that is where we would have been sitting. Coulda, woulda, shoulda.
National Championship
Alabama (Still has to win at LSU, which I now believe the Tide will be a favorite to do.)
Sugar
Florida (The road to the SEC Championship game still rolls through the World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party)
Capital One
Georgia
Cotton
LSU
Outback
South Carolina
Chick-Fil-A
Vandy
Liberty
Kentucky (I am assuming only home wins against Arkansas and Vandy, for a final 6-6 record. I do not see any team below this point getting to seven wins. The Liberty and Music City could be picking among three 6-6 teams. Liberty will be tempted to take a 6-6 Ole Miss in this spot. If so, I'd assume we'd freefall past the Music City to the Independence.)
Music City
Tennessee (Unless UT's proximity cuts against them. Query: Would Vol's fans get in their cars to go home, or stay in one of Nashville's overpriced, mediocre hotel rooms? It is New Year's Eve.)
Independence
Ole Miss
Papajohns.com
At large (Right now I project MSU, Auburn and Arkansas all to finish 5-7 and out of the soup. There are a million ways this could change, but right now I don't see the SEC getting 10 teams bowl eligible unless some big boys get upset.)
Tuesday, October 14, 2008
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1 comment:
How can you refer to the Day's Inn in Nashville as mediocre and overpriced? There's no way it's meidocre. Otherwise, I like the picks. Would be happy with a 1/2/09 road trip to Memphis. (Also wouldn't mind a third annual Music City Bowl.) Won't make Shreveport (or Birmingham?)
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