UK-USC PREVIEW

This week's tilt against South Carolina is the ultimate benchmark game for the 2008 Cats. Because I was hoping only for a 6-6 year before the season started, I will not go so far as to call it a must win game. However, for a program that wants to prove it has turned the corner, a team that wants to compete in the SEC East, and a coach who wants to cement his legacy, this is about as close as a mid-season game can be. A win and the Cats are a prohibitive favorite to go to the Swamp Oct. 25th at 6-1 and as a top 20 team. This also gives us a huge bowl priority leg up on USC, which would then be 1-3 in conference with games against LSU and Florida still to play (UT should be clocking its third conference loss this week too). A win puts 8-4 within realistic reach. A loss put the Cats well outside the top 25, and 0-2 in the conference with Florida, Georgia, Vandy and an away game at Tennessee still to play. Could we still go to a bowl? Yes, but it will likely be a lowest tier game and our margin for error becomes thin at that.

The Spurrier factor cannot be ignored. UK needs to beat this guy. Last year should have been the year, but four turnovers, two ran back for scores, doomed us. Two years ago at home was close. Interestingly, the loss came only one week before the 49-0 loss at LSU, which is often cited as the point when our program turned around.

The teams are evenly matched. Both squads have great defenses and offenses who've had uneven performances. USC, even on the road, is a one point favorite. This has a lot to do with QB Chris Smelly having played the game of his life last week, throwing for 327 yards at Mississippi. Still, there are reasons why Spurrier won't settle on him. Neither team boasts a bad loss (USC has lost by a touchdown at Vandy and at home against Georgia). Both have played some cupcakes (For the Gamecocks-Wofford, UAB, and what was on that day an abysmal North Carolina State team). This would be the season's best win for either team.

So, as I said, the stakes are pretty high.

The key to the game for the Cats is to not allow Smelly to get comfortable. If Smelly stinks, Superior is going to grab the hook and start playing musical quarterbacks. Meanwhile, if we can sustain a couple of drives and put some points on the board, things could get tense over there. If their offense can play in rhythm, even if they don't score like the did against Ole Miss, then we may be in trouble. Truth be told, I don't see either team scoring a ton. We need to avoid silly turnovers and penalties.

I am excited as it looks like Micah Johnson and Randall Cobb are both going to play Saturday. Even if Cobb doesn't get a snap at quarterback, I'd like him on the field. I'm sure Hartline feels the same. He has to be better than the other young wideouts we have out there.

Pretty pumped about this one. If anyone has a score prediction, post it as a comment.