Big Bowl Projection Post

Let's break down, in excruciating detail, the Cats Bowl prospects. We'll start with the SEC rules regarding bowl slotting.

After the BCS bowls, where we assume the SEC will slot two teams, the Capital One Bowl gets the next pick(3). It must pick the school with the next best overall record, or a team within one win of the next best overall record. The Cotton and Outback Bowls (4-5) pick next. Ordinarily the Cotton selects a team from the West and Outback a team from the East. They may choose from the opposite conference, but cannot do so until the other bowl picks. The Chick Fil A (6) then chooses next overall. The Liberty and Music City (7-8) are on equal footing. Each bowl ranks the remaining teams in order of preference. If there is a match among their first pick, that team decides where it goes. Otherwise, each bowl gets its preference. The Independence (9) chooses next, the the Papajohns.com (10) Bowl.

Most people seem to believe, and I agree, that the Cats have a clear shot at the Outback Bowl if they beat Tennessee. If so, we will be 8-4, with the second best overall record in the East. The SEC standings could look like this.

East
1. Florida 12-0, 8-0
2. Kentucky 8-4, 4-4
3. Georgia 6-6, 4-4
4. Tennessee 6-6, 3-5
5. South Carolina 6-6, 3-5
6. Vandy

West
1. Alabama 12-0, 8-0
2. Ole Miss 9-3, 5-3
3. LSU 9-3, 5-3
4(t). Arkansas 7-5, 3-5
4(t). Auburn 7-5, 3-5
6. Mississippi St. 4-8, 2-6

Again, these are likely records, if all the favorites (except UT, which is currently favored by 3 points) win. The only possible wrench would be if Arkansas beats LSU, making both teams 8-4 and 4-4 in the league. The Cotton would then choose between those teams and the Outback would have a real choice to make between UK and the other. I still like our chances. I suppose the same scenario could present itself with Auburn beating Alabama, but that seems more remote. Also, I am not sure that Auburn has as much appeal to the Outback. Anyway, the Outback seems to be the overwhelming likelyhood if we win. Worst case scenario, we would fall one spot to the Chick-Fil-A.

Now, for the sake of argument, lets assume the Cats do not win. If all other favorites hold serve, the SEC East standings look like this:

East
1. Florida 12-0, 8-0
2. Tennessee 7-5, 4-4
3. Georgia 6-6, 4-4
4. Kentucky 7-5, 3-5
5. South Carolina 6-6, 3-5
6. Vandy

So, assuming the BCS gobbles up Florida and Alabama, that leaves Ole Miss for the Capital One and LSU for the Cotton. It would makes sense that Tennessee gets to the Outback. At that point, the Chick-Fil-A (New Year's Eve in Atlanta) is choosing between UK, Arkansas and Auburn, three teams with potentially identical overall and league records. A lot of locals are thinking Chick-Fil-A even if we lose. I'm not so sure. First of all, we were not even on this bowl's radar prior to this week. Secondly, Auburn is a whopping hour and forty five minute drive to Atlanta. Finally, Ryan Mallett is looking more like a sure fire NFL first round arm every week. I think the Razorbacks might be the most sexy pick. But they are not as close as we are. I honestly couldn't say what the Chick-Fil-A officials will do.

Moreover, several teams could improve their lies with wins this weekend. Clearly we should root against potential co-suitors Arkansas and Auburn in favor of their respective foes, LSU and Alabama, two teams who beat us in the pecking order regardless . Just as importantly, we should be rooting like hell against Georgia and South Carolina. They play ranked rivals Georgia Tech and Clemson, respectively. Both are projected to lose and finish the season 6-6, but either could bring itself back into the Liberty/Music City tier with a win. With all this lurking, I believe the Cats' most likely destination with a loss is the Music City Bowl. If things broke right, we could still end up in the Chick-Fil-A. I doubt we will fall below Nashville no matter how it shakes out, but certainly stranger things have happened.

In 2007, the Cats appeared to have a Chick-Fil-A Bowl bid pretty well in their sights even if they lost to Tennessee on the final day of the regular season. The day before, however, Arkansas pulled a big upset against eventual National Champion LSU. This catapulted the Razorback into an unlikely Cotton Bowl bid, driving 8-4 Auburn down into our spot in Catlanta. Lets hope something like this does not crop up.

Of course, the easiest way to avoid this is to take care of business on Saturday. I'll let some outsider's predictions take us out. Go Cats.

ESPN Mark Schlabach
Music City v. Boston College



ESPN Bruce Feldman
Music City v. Florida State



CFN Scout
Outback v. Wisconsin



CBS Sports
Papajohns.com v. South Florida