Tuesday, November 18, 2008

Bowl Notes while watching UK B-Ball Lose

Time to dispel a couple of myths.
1. UK might be 6-6. South Carolina was 6-6 last year and didn't get to go to a bowl. We may not go to a bowl. Here are all of the things that would have to happen for UK to not go to a bowl this year. Auburn beats Alabama on November 29th. Arkansas wins out by beating Mississippi State on the road and LSU at home. The SEC does not get two schools into BCS bowls for the first time ever. One of those things could happen. Two would be incredibly unlikely. Three would be like Joe Bob Briggs' third jackpot in Casino, which ultimately led to Sam's downfall. The odds against it are infinitesimal. It just cannot happen.

2. The Music City Bowl will not take UK for a third straight year. Hogwash. This isn't about spreading the wealth or getting bored. It isn't even about what the teams in the SEC want. Its about money. Making some pretty standard assumptions about the close of the season, chances are the Chick-Fil-A Bowl will be picking between Vandy and Ole Miss. Whoever is left will likely be in a Liberty/Music City hotchpot with UK. Oxford, Mississippi is an hour and a half from Memphis. You cannot throw a rock in Memphis without hitting an Ole Miss grad. The Liberty will have a clear preference for them. Conversely, it is unlikely that the Music City Bowl would want Vanderbilt for its game. They'd be leaving so many hotel rooms open that bowl committee members would not be able to show their faces at Nashville charity events or masquerade parties where the piano players play blindfolded for a year. Actually, that is not a well constructed joke since no one shows his face at a masquerade party. Anywho. . . . .

None of this is to say that UK is really a lock for the Music City Bowl. Other things could happen. If Auburn or Arkansas get bowl eligible, things get dicey. Auburn is admittedly a long shot. Arkansas, one never knows. It should win next week against Miss. St. A home date at LSU ends the season. Don't forget, if Arkansas doesn't upset LSU in triple overtime in the last week of last year's SEC regular season, UK is probably in the Chick-Fil-A Bowl. Arkansas obviously doesn't have the team it did last year, but then again, neither does LSU. If Arkansas wins out and we end up losing to UT, that could be our ticket to Shreveport.

Also, I could be overestimating the extent to which the Music City would be repelled by Vandy. It has a national reputation and alumni spread out all over. Maybe the city would see the team's first bowl in 26 years and some sort of super homecoming. We'll see.

3. Billy Gillespie coaches basketball. A total fallacy. I'm watching ten talented guys on the floor, five of whom appear to run an offense, talk to one another, play defense and avoid committing silly turnovers for fear of being taken out of the game. The other five, not so much. One of these teams has been practicing together for a month. The other seems like a group of guys who met at the gym and called next. I digress.

On a final note, since I predicted the final record of every SEC final team three weeks ago I am a whopping 17-1 on picking games involving an SEC team. The only miss I have is UT's loss to Wyoming. It is all written down on a sheet. If you don't believe me, you can glean most of my close picks by reviewing that post.

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