As I've been saying for over a week now, barring something unusual, UK looks like a lock for a third straight trip to the Music City Bowl. Ole Miss took away any hope of the Cats going to the Chick-Fil-A by handing it to LSU on the road on Saturday. We have nowhere to go but down now. Auburn is the only SEC team that could get bowl eligible, and to do so it would have to beat Alabama. In a separate but related note, UK could also fall to Shreveport if only one SEC team made the BCS.
How could this happen? Its not likely but let's look. Six conference champions plus Utah will assuredly play in the BCS. Right now, the other three teams would be the SEC Championship Game loser, a second team from the Big 12, and USC. A conference cannot send more than two teams, so there are several eligible (top 14 in BCS) teams right now that will not make it. The teams that could conceivably take a spot from an at-large candidate listed above are Ohio State, Boise State and TCU. Economics dictate that the Mid-major teams are out. So, basically Ohio State, at 10-2 and done for the year, is the only team that could upset the apple cart.
If Florida and Alabama get through this weekend unscathed, smooth sailing. A loss by one would not, of itself do the trick. Assuming that one team loses this weekend, but wins the SEC Championship, that team would go to the BCS Championship and the Sugar Bowl would probably still pick the other. If Florida were to lose out, it would be 10-3 and conceivably ranked behind Ohio State. Would the BCS take a three loss at-large team? It did last year, Illinois. That is the only time it has happened, though. I should also note that an Oregon State loss to Oregon would slide USC into the Pac-10 slot and, because Oregon State is not an at-large candidate, open up a spot. The SEC has yet another out, in that Georgia would still be sitting at a likely 10-2 and inside the top 14. A lot would have to happen for the SEC not to get 2 teams in.
The bottom line is to cheer for Florida and the Tide next weekend, eat some turkey, and book those Music City Bowl tickets. The scary part of this discussion? Whether UK wins or loses this week will probably make no difference in its fate. This is information a team that has come out flat in its last two games would be better off without.
More as the week progresses.
Monday, November 24, 2008
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3 comments:
I don't disagree, but please comment on why it's the Music City and not the Liberty. Are you thinking that the Liberty will take who's left of Ole Miss and LSU?
My take is that Ole Miss will now go to the Cotton with LSU falling to the Chick-Fil-A. Both should be 8-4 after this weekend. That still leaves us splitting the Liberty/Music City with Vandy.
If those teams lost in any combination, Vandy could, I suppose, win and leapfrog one for the Chick-Fil-A. Even if that happened, we would still be matched up against LSU or Ole Miss for the Liberty/Music City selection. I've already commented about Ole Miss and Memphis. I think the geography thing would leave it playing out the same way if LSU was left out of the Peach. The chances of that happening, in and of itself, are pretty small.
So, I assume your next question is what if LSU or Ole Miss loses, Vandy loses, and Kentucky wins? Both we and LSU/Mississippi would be 7-5. Why would we be out of the Chick-Fil-A? Ole Miss would have a clear edge because of the conference record, the big wins, and because they played a tougher non-conference schedule. LSU would present a more intriguing choice. We would have identical conference records, and they would have come off two straight losses. On the other hand, they are LSU, and have road wins at Auburn and South Carolina. We won't overcome that. Bottom line, I see no way we get to Atlanta.
The loss to Vandy KILLED US.
I agreed that we were out of the Peach. Who I forgot about was Vandy. Now that you mention Vandy, I think it's likely that it's us and Vandy splitting the Liberty/Music City unless something crazy happens. If that happens I think you've already posted that you think Vandy will go to Memphis.
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