2009 Preview Part 1

I am doing a 2009 preview before the 2008 season is officially over. Admittedly, there are reasons why this is a bad idea, chief being that the season isn't officially over. We have an important game coming up, and next year's outlook could certainly change based on how the game goes.

My defense? Judging from the number of hits, UK Football Fan is on life support. It is too early to do a game preview and there is little else to write about. So, to keep the act moving, lets talk a little bit about next year. I'll even spread this out over a couple of posts. So, hopefully people will check it multiple times. While you read, would it kill some of you to click on a banner ad every now and then?

So that you don't get fooled again, know that the new boss is the same as the old boss. Next year's team will look much the same and will rise and fall with the success of its defense. As I alluded to in an earlier post, the strength of that unit will hinge largely on three young men testing the NFL waters. Trevard Lindley, Jeremy Jarmon and Micah Johnson have all presented paperwork to be evaluated by the NFL for their potential stock in this year's draft. This is a preliminary step that Rich Brooks has encouraged his players to take in the past. It doesn't mean they are leaving. Lindley would appear the most likely to be a high round pick and thus the most likely to go. A dirty secret about Trevard. After building a national reputation early, he slipped as the season progressed, most notably against Vandy, where he was toasted by a guy playing his first ever game at wide receiver.

Still, most projections have Trevard going as a second round pick. No one is guaranteed tomorrow in the NFL. My guess is that he will leave. There is less information available on Jarmon and Johnson's chances. Jeremy didn't have a particularly productive year, and sounds the most positive that he is coming back. Johnson says he hears that he would be a second or third round pick. That probably means he'll be a fourth or fifth round pick. Hopefully the NFL tells him that and he stays. Johnson is a potential NFL starter as a run blocker, but still has light years to go in moving those hips in pass coverage. Possessed with the heart of a lion, Johnson is my favorite player on the team. My son wears a #4 jersey on game days that I thought he could grow into by next year. Thus, I have a $28 vested interest in Johnson's decision. I really hope he sticks around and think he will.

So, assuming Trevard leaves and the others stay, that will give UK a nucleus of Johnson (ILB), Jarmon (DE), Sam Maxwell (OLB), Corey Peters (DT) and Calvin Harrison (FS). Winston Guy should step up as one corner, and Paul Warford is expected to return from a year of academic ineligibility to man the other. Shane McCord and Ricky Lumpkin will rotate as tackles, and Danny Trevathan and Mike Schwindel should battle it out for a spot at outside linebacker. Matt Lentz and Ashton "The Joker" Cobb will either start or provide depth at safety.

In addition to Lindley, the Cats will feel the loss of Braxton Kelly and Myron Pryor the worst. The defense had some rough patches late, but we never got pushed around. We had big guys filling the gaps and on occasion really punishing people. These two seniors were big reasons for that. Next year's defense will be more finesse. That makes losing a shutdown corner like Lindley especially tough.

Next year's defense will have to rely on a couple of karmic factors to perform on par or better than this year's. First, they need to avoid injury. Had this year's D not looked like a MASH unit each week, it would have accomplished more. Secondly, next year's D needs to hope the offense finds a way to perform a little better. In the end, our guys got run down, both within individual games and over the season as a whole. One of the many things keeping Rich Brooks up nights this year will be the loss of Tim Masthay. Time and time again he salvaged field position for our struggling offense and gave our D a fighting chance. He'll be doing so in the NFL (or Montreal or Frankfurt) next year. The D will need to gird its loins for another tough season.

Which brings us to the vaunted O. Lets end with the quarterback discussion and start with other things. The running back situation will be regrettably more of the same. We'll be relying on the trio of Derrick Locke, Alfonso Smith and Moncell Allen. Locke and Smith are speedsters, Allen is a bowling ball who runs hard and downhill. Unfortunately, all three are missing the elusive quality that makes an SEC starter caliber running back. Simply put, these guys don't make people miss. When the first guy always brings you down, and you play against the nation's best defenses every week, you aren't going to gain a lot of yards. Locke had some great games as a freshman, and has the best chance of transforming into the kind of player we need him to be. Of course, he will also be coming off of knee surgery and might not emerge as the same player. Incoming freshman Dakotah Tyler from Pike H.S. in Indianapolis has the best chance of cracking the rotation.

The running back position is a sore spot, but not nearly as sore as. . . .

Wide receiver. One hopes that a year of experience would have done the Cats young receiving corps some good. If so, I missed it. Kyrus Lanxter and EJ Adams appeared to be the best of the lot, but no one distinguished himself. Wildcat wide receivers combined for 1103 yards in receptions over 12 games, a paltry 92 per. Take Dickie Lyons and Randall Cobb (who combined got only 7 starts) out of the equation and the numbers shrink to 642 and 53.5. The Cats Pause is reporting that UK has a commitment from one of the top JC wide receivers in the country, Chris Matthews, at 6'5" 210 lb kid with 4.5 speed playing at LA Harbor college. I'm glad if this is the case, but recall that Steve Johnson, as good as he was, came to UK from the California JC ranks and basically needed a whole year to adjust. Any discussion of the wideout position must include pencilling Randall Cobb in as a starter if he is not the starting quarterback. Maybe Matthews and Cobb will prove a respectable tandem if someone can throw them the ball.

The line will lose Garry Williams but gain back Christan Johnson, who is recovering from injuries and academic problems. Overall, it should be much improved. Maybe it is the former offensive lineman in me, but I think this year's group was much better than advertised. They gave up very few sacks, and running backs in general and Locke's injury in particular contributed to the running problems more than most other observers seem to think.

This is the end of part one. Stayed tuned for a discussion about next year's quarterback competition and a look at the 2009 schedule.