Tuesday, December 2, 2008

UK Bowl Projections

Saturday's games solidified the notion that the Liberty and Music City Bowls will choose between Vandy and Kentucky. For the record, the Bowls will rank the two teams for preference. Assuming both pick the same team first, that team will choose its destination. That's it. I still don't see why the Music City would want a team from its own city, yet 4 of the 5 sites I've been quoting in my projections say Vandy will stay at home and we'll be going to Memphis.

These are the same sites that prefer sugarless gum for their patients who chew gum. (If you don't get this joke, you are under 33)

I've put in an e-mail to John Clay at the Herald-Leader to see if he thinks these people know something I don't. He has not responded. So I guess we'll see.

Lets pretend its our choice instead and break it down mano a mano.

Towns
Nashville is one of the south's best cities, if not the best. Great restaurants, great nightlife, great music scene.
Memphis is kinda dirty, and not necessarily in a good way. There is Beale Street, which cures a lot of ills, but it isn't a panacea. Unlike Neil Simon, I'm not going to Graceland.
Advantage: Music City

Proximity
Duh
Advantage: Music City

Stadium
LP Field is a modern NFL stadium with all the amenities. It is also huge and a little impersonal. If you have nosebleeds here, and I have, you are in another area code. It you are looking at Ticketmaster today, you see there are no decent seats left.
Memorial Stadium is reportedly a dump. That said, it is a smaller venue, the game never sells out, and right now you can still get seats between the 20s.
Advantage: Music City, in a tight one.

Game
The Music City Bowl matches SEC 6/7 (actually 7/8 with two SEC teams going to BCS Bowls) against the ACC 5,6 or 7. The ACC tie ins work about the same as the SEC's do. In the case of a disagreement, the Music City get the fifth pick. It looks like that will be North Carolina or one of a host of 7-5 teams .
The Liberty opponent will be the winner of the East Carolina-Tulsa Conference USA final. Tulsa is a 13 point favorite in that game. It also started the season 8-0 and up to #18 in the country before losing to Arkansas and gagging up a ridiculous 70 points to Houston the following week.
Advantage: Depends on your perspective. I'll pick the Liberty because it might be a winnable game.

The Hotel I have booked
In Nashville, it is the Hotel Indigo near Vandy. Not liking my downtown options, I went for a place a mile or so up the road. The last two years my friends and I have made this a one night trip, which makes for a nice savings. This is a hip looking place that I think we got for about $170.
In Memphis, there are no great hotel options for stadium proximity. The Zs and Scutchfields instead opted for Beale proximity with the Crowne Plaza Downtown (I think). At two nights at $200 per, it wasn't a great deal, but made the most sense.
Advantage: Music City

X Factor
For some reason, I find myself hoping we end up in Memphis, despite the empirical data above. I have enjoyed Nashville, but I've seen three games there in the past two years (including last year's UK-Vandy game) and would love to try a different bowl game. I've been to three UK bowls in my life, and each was a Music City. Also, seeing the Cats lose that Bowl after watching them win the last two would probably be too much to bear. I could be more philosophical about a Liberty loss.

Plus, there's always Tunica, a gambling destination as depressing as it is loose with the comped rooms, meals and drinks.

5 comments:

Anonymous said...

Nice breakdown, I'm guessing your analysis is correct, and that the other projections just haven't taken the implications of playing in one's hometown into account.

The UNC idea isn't horrible, it would give me a chance to win back the money I lost to my law school roommate on UNC/UK basketball.

Also... you meant PAUL Simon, not Neil Simon, right? I mean maybe there's a play about Graceland I don't know about... but Paul's the one who sang about it.

TDW said...

Pollom beat me to the Neil Simon comment. ALthough I think Neil Simon carried Garfunkel too.

Anonymous said...

I'm pulling for Memphis. We've done Nashville two years in a row. I'm ready for some blackjack in the infamous Tunica. "Memphis, baby, Memphis."

Dave Zahniser said...

Pollom and Willard beat me to the Paul Simon comment, but I think he was a senator from Illinois who always wore a bow tie. Speaking of over 33, is "getting" the joke different from "not laughing at" the joke?

Scutch said...

Now I know how to generate comments, just make a mistake!

 
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