Preview Part 2

Five days later, I'll get back to the 2009 season preview. Since I wrote on Tuesday, The Herald Leader and other outlets have confirmed that JC transfer Chris Matthews is on board for next year. That is good news. Of course, this news begs the #1 questions of the off season. Who is going to be throwing Matthews the ball?

The 2009 QB Derby may be a very crowded field. Depending on how the Liberty Bowl plays out, I think Mike Hartline is your morning line favorite. That's right. If you think Cobb blew him out of the water as a starter, you are mistaken. Because Hartline started all the non conference games, the comparison isn't entirely fair, but the team was 5-3 under him, with the losses coming to Alabama, USC and Florida. That left Cobb 1-3, with losses to Georgia, Vandy and UT. Both won one conference game. Hartline's was the miracle against Arkansas, Cobb's a war of attrition against Mississippi State. I will concede that the offense rarely looked good under Hartline, with the exceptions being last four minutes against Arkansas, and a good run against an overmatched WKU team. In contrast, Cobb got us going against Norfolk State, all game long against Georgia, and in the second half of the Vandy game. Both made some costly mistakes. Cobb has a wow factor that got a lot of people excited. But in the end, he just wasn't able to deliver in two winnable games at the end of the season.

Most importantly, it appears that the 2009 Cats are once again going to be short on playmakers. With Cobb's long term future at wide receiver, and his value as a reverse runner and punt returner, and blue chip QBs waiting in the wings, the coaching staff would have to prefer him out of the QB business. If the race is a push, Hartline should win all ties.

Which brings us to the other candidates. The Cats have taken the unusual step of signing two top notch QB prospects, Morgan Newton of Carmel In. and Ryan Mossakowski of Frisco, Tx. Both are 6-4. Mossakowski is said to have a cannon arm, while Newton is more of a dual threat. I did get to see Newton play on TV once this year. He looked a lot like Michael Bush did when he played quarterback for Male. He was bigger and stronger than everyone else, and bulled his way into stats, first downs and wins. Like Bush, Newton did not look to have a classic passer's throwing motion. Then again, he doesn't need to fit the mold of a classic dropback passer to play in our system. Newton was recently named Mr. Football in Indiana after leading Carmel to the state championship. I see Newton as a Curtis Pulley without the baggage. Of course, we already have a running quarterback with a great arm. That said, Newton can learn the offense, but Cobb cannot learn to be 6 inches taller.

Mossakowski's senior year went the other way. After having a less than stellar season to begin with, Ryan was lost for the year with a torn labrum in his throwing shoulder in early November. Between the need to rehab, and the fact that his bench press max was reportedly just 21o lbs. to begin with, I question whether Mossakowski can be a factor in next year's quarterback race. He probably needs a year to mature physically. But we'll see. Looking at all the schools that recruited him has me licking my chops. He turned down some great programs to come here, as did Newton.

Finally, we have made an offer to a JC quarterback this past week. After watching tough but abysmal Kevin Craft throw my UCLA Bruins' season away, I am really down on JC quarterbacks. In fact, I cannot remember one who has been successful at an SEC school. This isn't something I want to consider.

Whoever quarterbacks the Cats next year will face a pretty tough schedule. (Note that since this was created, we have filled in the late open date with Louisiana-Monroe. Also note that we will still be adding one game prior to the Louisville game. Presumably this will be an easy home win, though Rich Brooks has hinted that it may be a road game.) I am not a big fan of what our brass has put together. Rather than starting with a couple of cupcakes, we will have one undetermined cupcake, a bye week and then Louisville at home. The U of L game will kick off a stretch of 11 straight games. With how injuries effected this season, you'd think this would have been avoided at all costs. The schedule looks tough. The most winnable games will of course be the 4 non conference, at home against Mississippi State and Tennessee, and at Vandy and Auburn. The four that would be major upsets would be at home against Alabama and Florida and on the road against South Carolina and Georgia.

All in all, I'll go back to my original thesis. Next year's outlook should look about like this years' did. If the Cats can get some off season growth at the skill positions and sustain the losses well enough to field a comparable defense, this could be a pretty good team. However, if the offense does not find a way to put points on the board, and a couple of people turn pro early, next year might be a long one.

Early prediction: Another 6-6 finger in the dyke season which will serve as a precursor to an amazing 2010.