Quick Postgame Summary

This was no doubt a frustrating night for UK Football Fan. First off, it was crazy cold outside, which made standing up and going nuts in the stands almost impossible. We brought the kids, and I resorted to sitting my son on my lap to try to stay warm. So basically, I was planted to my chair.
I could not have been more wrong about how the game developed. In the beginning, Clemson looked like the team that didn't come to play. We had chances to really take control, and outside of the opening drive, didn't capitalize. Then Clemson started to assert its running game, and the UK offense became one dimensional and just kind of imploded. I don't understand why Mike Hartline did not play. I cannot imagine a situation that would have called for it more.
The saddest moment was Trevard Lindley falling down and looking up to watch a Clemson receiver haul in a touchdown pass. I've never seen a player's career fall apart like this, and I felt horrible for him.
I also understand Micah went down with a minute or so left. I must have missed it. A shame for him, and I hope it isn't serious.
In any event, I had a great weekend and am already looking forward to next season. We'll talk more in the coming days, as Brooks is reportedly "80% sure" he isn't coming back and will apparently decide in the next week.

Chinless MCB Preview

I'm in Nashville

The UK Football Fan household is now basking in the afterglow of Christmas. I am waiting for my son to get off the Wii so I can get back to playing DJ Hero. Since he isn't going to do so voluntarily for some time, now is a good time for a blog post. Or not. I actually started this post on Christmas afternoon, aborted mission, and am now finishing up from the Opryland Hotel. I cannot tell if this is where the team is staying. I've seen Mitch Barnhart and Sam Maxwell, but neither are suiting up tomorrow, so who knows.

In any event, we are here. Hopefully we'll meet up with some Cats fans and have a nice day checking the place out with the kids. Tomorrow we'll get up leisurely, check out, and head for downtown. There we'll meet up with several friends and try to find a spot to warm up before the game. They are all big Bengals fans, so we'll be getting in front of a TV for that. The 7:30 start will make for an interesting dynamic. We will freeze out butts off, the game is going to end late, and I have to guard against the often fatal "too early start" on the day's festivities.

Bringing the kids means, among other things, that we'll be heading back to the hotel right after the game. Win, lose or draw, they'll be no repeat of 2008's Memphis shenanigans. Getting old stinks.

Anyway, we are off to a good start on our big weekend. If you are down here hit me up.

2010 Signs

With the MCB coming so soon after Christmas, I am starting to see this UK Football Fan year getting away from me. Before I do a game preview, lets focus a little bit on next season. Last year I believe I did a lot in terms of a season preview prior to the bowl. I don't want to do that this year because I think the bowl might tell us a lot about next season. Instead, lets focus on what some of those things might be.



I start with the premise that 2010 might be a rough year, especially with Derrick Locke out of the mix. The most proven part of our offense could be our wide receiver corps. Think about that for a minute. Okay. UK will go with four new starters on the offensive line, a heretofore unused tight end of some variety, and a quarterback who will emerge from what will likely be a war of attrition.


The Defense will have some talented players back, but a number of holes to fill.



In fact, lets start there. Sam Maxwell's injury means that Junior Jacob Dufrene will get the nod at Strongside Linebacker in the Music City Bowl. Dufrene has been seen almost exclusively on special teams in his career, but is the front runner to play in that spot in 2010. This is a big opportunity for him.



It appears Paul Warford and Randall Burden will have the inside track to start at corner in 2010. Burden in particular had some big plays this year, but in my opinion, really struggled at times. Warford was hurt some this season and had a rather quiet year. Randall's coming out party was in last season's Liberty Bowl. It would be nice to see some similar magic from one of these guys to help us gain some confidence.



Over to offense, obviously the big story should be whether Mike Hartline will play, if so how much and how effectively. Based on everything I've observed, the race for the starting quarterback in 2010 is wide open. Hartline was having a great game when he got hurt but had certainly not set the world on fire leading up to it. Already struggling with confidence, Mike basically imploded against Alabama and left Brooks and Co. saying, "he aint much but he's all we got. Newton of course did what he was asked and managed to win some games, though it is questionable how much of a role he really played. I admit I was a tad disappointed in his running ability, and obviously his touch on downfiled passes will need to improve. I personally would be very relieved to see Mike Hartline come into this game, play well, and reestablish himself as the starting quarterback. No matter what happens, I'd expect a battle in the spring. And given what has transpired this year, I expect it will be a three horse race.



Assuming Locke is gone, UK will be looking for a tailback in 2010. Moncell Allen is at the top of the depth chart, and has certainly paid his dues. More importantly, the Turtle has run well when given the opportunity. Despite this, I don't see him getting more than 100 carries next year as the staff doesn't see him as a every down back. He is an unusual size and shape, and lacks the top end speed of an SEC tailback. If I were Brooks, I'd be looking to get Donald Russell or Coshik Williams a couple of meaningful carries on Sunday.

We'll talk a little more as it gets closer. Merry Christmas.

Lazy Saturday Post

Obviously, a better blogger would figure out things to write about the UK Football team in December. Usually, when the posts get sparse, I blame work or something external. Right now, the truth is, there is little to say. As the MCB is eight days away, I'll go ahead and set up some angles for the game.

1. It may be Derrick Locke's last as a Cat. From looking at interviews and following conventional wisdom, it appears Locke is likely to turn pro after the season. This is an unusual move for someone who may very well be drafted. But is it the right move? The reasons why Locke might throw caution to the wind and go out are varied. He is a responsible father who wants to provide for his child. His body has taken a beating in the SEC, and he is one more awkward tackle away from being unmarketable. UK is graduating nearly all of its offensive line, so a breakout ALL-SEC senior year is less that assured. Finally, he admits that watching Micah and Trevard slide down draft boards after deciding to come back has weighed on him.

Of course, there are as many reasons to come back. Setting aside the "be true to your school" mantra, Locke is not seen as a sure fire NFL player. He may be drafted in a late round, he may end up as a free agent pickup. It would seem that a good senior season could improve his stock. Another year as a feature back might convince the NFL he could be an every down player. Given that he isn't seen as a certain pick, coming back couldn't possibly hurt. Locke's situation is nothing like Lindley's or even Johnson's. He is projected as a final round pick at best. Why give up your senior year in college for something that isn't a sure thing.

Here is an important question I don't know the answer to. Is Locke of course to get a degree in May 2011? See, this isn't basketball. There aren't the same opportunities to play overseas and in minor leagues. Those playing pro football outside the NFL would probably better off financially getting a white collar job somewhere. So it would make sense to play football for free for one more year in exchange for a diploma unless he was 100% sure he'd be on a roster next year. Unless, of course, he hasn't already made sufficient progress and it isn't an option. I don't know. I wish Derrick the best, and truly hope he makes the best decision for him. If he leaves, the Cats are dealt a crushing blow.

2. Randall Cobb plays to a national audience. Next Sunday is an NFL day, but the Music City Bowl is the only college game of the day. The primetime slot on the East Coast ensures that many casual fans will be tuned in. This is Randall Cobb's chance to showcase his talent to the nation. For some reason, I think he is going to rise to the occasion. While he might not outshine C.J. Spiller, a dual between these two uber talent players will be fun to watch.

3. Trevard. The 2006 Music City Bowl was a coming out party of sorts for Treard Lindley. His spectacular end zone interception was the first of many big plays he made for Kentucky over the first three years of his career. After a pick six against Miami (OH) in the season's opening game of 2009, the big plays quit coming. Lindley came back from injury too soon, and he was less than himself for the rest of the year, basically just another player on the field. He may have cost himself hundreds of thousands of dollars in the process. I would love to see a healed up Lindley have a big game, show scouts he is the same guy he was in 2008, and make one last memory for himself and his fans.

4. Me tempting the bowl karma monster by taking the kids. This probably deserves its own post.

5. Quarterbacks. The topic of who will be the starter in 2009 is for a different time, but I'd like to see both Newton and Hartline play in this game. I am not sure that Hartline is practicing at this point. He tried to go on Monday and had swelling in the knee. UK practiced last night and will again today at 11. I cannot get word on whether he participated. Sign of the times: I tried to figure this out just now and looked on Twitter before checking any other site.

6. Which Clemson team shows up? The ACC North champ that nearly beat Georgia Tech to go to a BCS Bowl, or the guys who spit the bit against a reeling South Carolina team two games ago.

Saturday Reset

After another episode of the John Wall show I am sitting here watching Army-Navy. I am cheering for the Midshipmen since an Army win would knock UCLA out of the Eaglebank Bowl in DC. In any event, there have been some developments over the past week, particularly on the recruiting front.



A note first about the new wrinkle that Twitter adds site. I resisted Twitter for a long time. My assessment was that unless you were someone a great mass of people wanted to hear from, Twitter added nothing to Facebook use. Twitter does allow you to follow whoever you want, and the relationship doesn't need to be reciprocal. That is important. Randall Cobb doesn't want to read what I have to say. Anyway, I use twitter almost exclusively for following sports. Here are the people I follow: sportswriters, UK athletes, a friend who happens to be running for the US Senate and the hilarious "Shitmydadsays". That's it. I have recently started posting on Twitter (I refuse to call it what they do) only because of a gadget that allows the posts to appear on this site. This way, I might impart some news and thoughts that don't merit a full post. I do have exactly one Twitter follower, an Auburn Football blog. Why, I don't know. Anyway, if you are on Twitter you can become a follower (not that I expect anyone to), or just feel free to check the posts out over there on the right.



On a related note, at least 2 UK players hit the town last night before this morning's practice. One professed to have a pretty good time.



Anyway to UK football.



1. Derrick Locke seems intent on testing the NFL waters. It started with a Facebook post after the disappointing loss to Tennessee "Should I stay or should I go". Frankly, I thought he was just letting off steam. The idea that he might leave school early never occurred to me. Locke has apparently submitted paperwork to the NFL to help assess his draft position. We know from last year that this doesn't mean much. I cannot foresee a scenario under which Locke doesn't return. He is a good back who would probably put up an eye popping 4o time in the combine. That said, at 5'9", 190 he is far from ideal size for an NFL tailback. Locke's future in the league is probably as a kick returner, speedy coverage guy and sometimes third down back. His only chance of being seen as something more is to come back and carry the ball 225 times while maintaining his health. Other than the possibility of career threatening injury, he risks little by returning. As it is, he is a late round pick at best. I'm all for Derrick doing what is best for him, I just think it would be a mistake.



2. If Locke does leave, would the staff consider moving Randall Cobb to tailback? The knocks are that he doesn't have enough size to take the punishment, and that he lacks the top end speed. I think it would work. Ole Miss made the move this with 5-8, 165lb Dexter McCluster in the middle of his career. They decided that getting the ball in their best player's hands as much as possible trumped other concerns. He had an All-SEC season.



3. This week brought a lot of great news on the recruiting front. I generally don't talk about recruiting because I don't keep up with preps any more and wouldn't have a clue what I was talking about. But right now there ain't much else to say, so here goes. Earlier this week we signed the first 4-star guy in the 2010, CB Anterio Sloan, a sub 4.5 guy from Arkansas. Yesterday came news of UK's first commit for the 2011, Jon Davis from my mom's alma mater, Louisville Eastern. Davis goes 6'3", 233 and is listed as an athlete. He played tight end this year, which has me wondering if he can catch a ball and if he'd like to come play football in Nashville on December 27th.



4. It looks like Clemson is not going to use its allotment of tickets, which as I pointed out earlier in the week isn't surprising. This is good news for me, as for all of my planning, I went braindead when I got on Ticketmaster and bought seats on the Clemson sideline. On the other hand, it end up making me mad because several people who waited longer than I did to get tickets are going to get better seats. I got screwed raw on this at the Liberty Bowl last year. Oh well.



5. For anyone interested, a quick rundown of my bowl game plans. This trip is going to be different from years past since we are bringing the kids. We'll head down the day after Christmas for a night at the Opryland. I've never stayed there, and it might make the trip more palatable for my daughter, who could give a crap about football. Sunday we'll move down to the Hermitage downtown and get checked in around 3. I have a parking pass, but the decision whether to tailgate or hit the bar/restaurant scene prior to the game will likely be made by the weather. If you are out having fun after midnight that night, you'll have to tell us all about it.

MCB 2009

A surprise win over the Georgia Bulldogs helps provide Kentucky with a better than expected 7-5 record and a trip to the Music City Bowl to take on the favorite Clemson Tigers. In 2006, our fanbase and team were ecstatic. Clearly more satisfied to be in Nashville than their counterparts, the Cats came to play. The fans showed up in droves and celebrated the team's first bowl trip in 8 years. The result, a not as close as it sounds 28-20 victory.

In 2009, the Cats are in the exact same position, but not really. With the exception of the fifth-year Seniors, no Wildcat has played on a Kentucky team that didn't go to a bowl. It is old hat. We are headed to our third Music City Bowl in four years. The bloom is off the rose a little bit. Like in 2007, many Cats fans are fresh off a trip to Nashville to see us play Vandy. On his criminally under appreciated Demolition album, Ryan Adams sang "Tennessee sucks in the summer". Cats fans who cancelled reservations in Tampa today might not be blamed for thinking it will suck on December 27th as well.

Lets face it, there is some pretty big letdown potential here. After losing the chance to play in Tampa in an overtime game against a hated rival, one wonders what this UK team will have in the tank. The game is far from a sellout, and I don't think UK will bring the contingent it did in 2006 and 2007. Many friends who made the trip before are staying home. Here are some reasons, though, why people should keep the faith, and why the team would be wise to focus.

1. We are underdogs, yes. But if any team could be less happy about being in the Music City Bowl, its Clemson. Five points from playing in the Orange , the Tigers instead took a Bobby Bowden induced dry dive down the ACC pecking order and wound up in this game. They got jobbed, plain and simple. Clemson is ripe for plucking.

2. CJ Spiller. The Cats let the likes of Monterio Hardesty and Anthony Dixon run ragged on them. In the MCB they will play against an even better back. I'm not sure I'd trade Spiller straight up for Mark Ingram. Holding him down would be a tremendous accomplishment for our front seven. Micah Johnson was snubbed by the AP today in All-SEC voting. It would be nice to see him end with a dominant performance.

3. Mike Hartline. Regardless of how Brooks handles the situation, it would be nice to see Mike get to be part of a victory. Next year's quarterback "battle" is going to be an interesting sub-plot in the off season. More on that another time.

4. Winning four bowl games in a row is a very difficult feat. The list of SEC teams that has been to and won bowls the last three years: Georgia, LSU, Kentucky. That is crazy good company. In addition, this is the only positive streak UK can claim to be a part of. Lets keep it going.

5. Nashville is a very nice safety valve for UK come bowl time. How many bowls would pick Kentucky over Georgia? If we throw in a clunker attendancewise, that might disappear.

Of course, one thing would certainly re-energize the Cats and their fans and get everyone pumped for the game: Rich Brooks announcing that it will be his last. Something tells me, however, that this isn't Brooks' way. Even if he decides to hang it up, he may want to take the focus off himself and not do so until after the game. That would be a mistake, in my opinion. We'll see how it goes.

Plus One Bowls

Just to finish the thought about my plan for a plus one college football playoff, here is what the bowl pairings would look like given the final BCS standing. The important part, of course, is that the winners of the Sugar and Fiesta would play the following week for the National Championship. The whole thing would be awesome.

Sugar
Alabama v. TCU

Fiesta
Texas v. Cincinnati

Orange
Georgia Tech v. Florida

Rose
Oregon v. Ohio State

Gator
Iowa v. Boise St.

Sam Maxwell to miss MCB

to have shoulder surgery.

Proposed "Plus One" BCS Playoff

With our bowl news decided, little else of UK Football note happening, and me announcing my potentially life changing decision to leave my large law firm to join the up and coming young firm http://www.millerwells.com there isn't much need or time for a new column this week. I want to dust off this idea I came up with last December, a plausible, make everyone happy "plus one" college football playoff system. The details relating to all the possible contingencies are clunky, but the plan boils down to allowing two BCS bowls to serve as national semi-finals, then playing a championship game the following week. It changes almost nothing about the current bowl system, and would get us much closer to a true national champion.

From December 2008:


The BCS keeps the Rose, Fiesta, Orange and Sugar and adds the Gator as a fifth bowl. These bowls are to be played on January 1 or 2. At the end of the regular season, the BCS rankings will spit out the four best teams. From there, the teams will be placed as follows:

1.The No. 1 team, assuming it is a BCS conference champion, shall play in the bowl designated by its championship. Fiesta= Big 12, Sugar=SEC, Orange=ACC, Rose=Pac-10 and/or Big 10. The Gator was added for this situation. This will become the Big East's champion's designated bowl. If the #1 team is not a BCS conference champion, it is placed as set forth below.

2. The No. 2 team, assuming that it is a BCS conference champion, shall play in the bowl designated by its championship. If not, it is placed as set forth below.

3. The No. 3 team, assuming it is a BCS conference champion, will be placed in the bowl designated by its championship unless both #1 and #2 are BCS conference champions. Assuming both #1 and 2 are BCS conference champions, the No. 3 team will play against the #2 team at the bowl that team is slotted for. If either #1 or 2 is not a BCS conference champion, it will play at #3's conference designated spot. If neither #1 or #2 is a BCS conference champion the Number #3 team shall play the #4. In the unlikely event none of the top 3 teams are BCS conference champions, the top 2 teams will select, in order, which bowl they wish to attend. The #3 team will then be matched against the #2 team.

4. The #4 team will play highest ranked BCS conference champion at that team's designated bowl unless none are BCS conference champions, in which case it will play the #1 team.

5. Notwithstanding 1-4 above, in the event that both the PAC-10 and Big-10 champions are ranked in the top 4, the teams will play in the Rose Bowl unless the National Championship game will be played in Los Angeles. Assuming the National Championship game is slated for Los Angeles, the lower ranked team will be treated as a not having been a conference champion and will be slated accordingly. If these two teams play in the Rose Bowl, the higher ranked of the two remaining teams shall play in the bowl designated by its conference championship against the final remaining team. If the higher ranked team is not a BCS conference champion, but the lower ranked team is, the teams shall play in the bowl designated by the lower ranked team's championship. In the event neither team is a conference champion, the bowl of the team with the higher ranking will host the game.

6. The other BCS games will be populated by champions from the other BCS conferences and wildcard teams in accordance with the current BCS system.

7. With the exception of the Gator Bowl, all other bowls remained unchanged.

8. The winners of the two games between the nation's top four teams play in a National Championship game approximately one week after the Jan 1 & 2 games. The game will rotate between BCS venues, as it does now.

One thorny issue. Does the Gator get added to the rotation?

This plan is the best anyone is going to come up with. It leaves the current situation virtually untouched while getting us a lot closer to a true national champion. The value of being a conference champion, which seems so important to the BCS, is left intact. The Rose Bowl gets thrown a bone. It doesn't cheapen the other BCS bowls any worse than they've been cheapened. Most of all, it puts some pressure on the various BCS conferences to put a good product on the field. As long as this ACC proves incapable of producing a championship contender, the Orange is not going to host a national semifinal. This is the way it should be. I cannot imagine a coherent argument against this system from either a realist's (which is to say fiscal), academic (no change other than for the two teams that would play twice) or competitive standpoint.

Cats to Music City Bowl

Put it in the book.

Bowl News Update

I am not sure why you'd be getting your news here, but if so, it appears that the Music City Bowl is choosing between the Cats and Georgia to play on December 27th. This after a wacky day where the Outback unexpectedly chose Auburn and the Chick-Fil-A then did us a potential favor by picking UT over Georgia.
It has been a lesson in the use of new media. The news has come via tweets, blog and Facebook updates, and it has been fast and furious. We should know our destination soon. If we don't get the MCB call, the conventional wisdom is that we will be snatched next by the Independence Bowl.

Final SEC Bowl Projections

UPDATE: Several media/blogger sources are reporting that Auburn will be selected by the Outback over Tennessee, or any team from the East for that matter. That puts UK firmly in the Shreveport crosshairs.

Here are my final SEC bowl projections. I have to say, after doing this for half the season, this final stab is sort of a joyless exercise. Everyone has an opinion on this now, and unless you have inside information (which I don't) then you are just making a guess. The upsets by Georgia and South Carolina this weekend sent the whole process into a tizzy. UT, UK, Arkansas, Auburn, UGa and USClite are all 7-5, so you can quit focusing on how the teams actually stack up and start thinking about what makes financial sense for these bowl committees. It is conventional wisdom among locals that UK will not to fall below the Music City Bowl. I understand the logic, but doubt any of these people know for sure.
So here it goes, my best guess. And admittedly, it is a guess.

National Championship
Florida. I have gone back and forth on this one for most of the season. Bottom line, I don't see Tim Tebow allowing his team to lose this game.

Sugar
Alabama. We can all agree it is a mortal lock that the SEC runner up gets this nod. Query: If the SEC Championship is very close could there be a rematch in the National Championship? Nebraska would undoubtedly need to beat Texas in the Big 12 Championship and Pitt would probably have to beat Cincinnati. Stranger things have happened.

Capital One
LSU. By attrition. Huge overtime win for the Tigers coupled with Ole Miss loss allows them to claw their way back to a prestigious slot.

Cotton
Ole Miss. Last of the safe bets. Everything below here is a crap shoot.

Outback
Tennessee. Just going with the conventional wisdom here. It makes sense since UT finished hot, and their 4-4 conference record puts them ahead of most of the other 7-5 teams.

Chick-Fil-A
Georgia. This is a guess. It would make sense that because the Chick-Fil-A sells out every year, that it would be looking for a big name matchup. The question becomes, if Georgia Tech loses to Clemson in the ACC Championship and becomes a candidate for this bowl, what happens? Certainly UGa and Tech will not play again. Even if it isn't Georgia, I like Auburn and South Carolina's chances better than ours to go here. Both are very close to Atlanta.

Liberty
Arkansas. The Liberty is said to covet an Arkansas-Houston tilt. Unless the Outback decides to snake the Razorbacks, I'd say this one is a lock.

Music City Bowl
Kentucky. By a nose. The boards are buzzing with talk of a "basketball" UK-UNC pairing. I question whether a North Carolina-South Carolina matchup wouldn't be sexier. But, as John Clay pointed out earlier in the week, with the bowl so close to Christmas (Dec. 27), the MCB needs at least one team whose fans will show up. We will. Cash is king. As for television, how many people are going to watch this game at 7:30pm on a Sunday night anyway?

Independence
Auburn. With only they and South Carolina to choose from, well. . . .Auburn is a lot closer to Shreveport. Who knows?

Papajohns.com
USC. The win against Clemson notwithstanding, the 'Cocks closed the season poorly. That they would suck hind tit here isn't too surprising.

Game Summary

I don't have much in the tank to write about the game. The whole thing is too painful. We did manage to leave our tailgate early enough to see the Senior Night festivities. I got my answer about whether UK Football means too much to me during the montage leading up to the introduction of the seniors. Yep, I started tearing up, and couldn't get the feeling to go away throughout the whole deal. So for ten minutes, I couldn't look at anyone else, especially my wife. This is insane, of course, because 1) I am a grown man; and 2) The players, who are the ones actually seeing their careers come to an end, weren't crying.
When the game ended, I wanted to cry again, but couldn't muster the emotional energy. At 5:20, I looked at my wife and said, "We are going to win". When Ashton Cobb forced the fumble and Randall ripped off a couple of runs from the Wildcat, I was starting to look like a prophet. Of course, it was not to be.
My points about the game have already been made by Matt Jones on KSR and nearly everyone else with an opinion. Why we didn't finish the last drive with Cobb behind center is beyond me. It was a lot like the fateful failed two point covers ion against USC. I don't understand Rich Brooks' explanation that we don't practice the Wildcat in the two minute offense. So what? It was 2nd and 7 on the 10 yardline coming out of a timeout with a minute and sixteen seconds left. We had another timeout. How many more plays could we have run in that situation regardless? 3, 4?
Like a lot of people, I felt an OT win was very unlikely. When we didn't get that ball in the end zone chances were we were not going to win.
My second point is another that has been made. We really had no business being in the game to begin with. Still, it was a chance that slipped away. And it slipped away for reasons I honestly don't understand.
More later about the SEC bowl picture, which is an absolute mess.

Preview

Alright, we are on the back end of what is going to be a three post day. Is it a bad sign that watching the Stevie Johnson video and typing a post about Will Fidler almost brought me to tears? Not to go all The Sports Guy or Clay Travis on you, but is is possible that I care too much about this team and have lost all perspective? Perhaps. But if there was ever a day to get lost in the depths of UK Football, this is it.

We've gone over why this is such a big game, so we won't belabor it. But one thing bears repeating. I hate Lane Kiffin.

Now lets talk about the game. My assessment of UT starts with their quarterback Jonathan Crompton. Somehow, this kid spent 3 1/2 years of a lousy career as a caterpillar and became a butterfly in the middle of this year. Through 3 games, Crompton had thrown 7 interceptions. Having seen his collapse against UCLA in the last of these three game, and chatting up the locals in Knoxville bars for two nights that weekend, I reported then that no player in college football inspired as much hatred from his own fans as this guy. It was brutal.

A lightbulb then went off for Crompton and he has been a different player. He leads the SEC in touchdown passes with 25, and has thrown only 4 picks in the last 8 games. Weird. The Cats need to find a way to get some pressure on him and get a pick early. This kid will get rattled. At his core he is still a kicked puppy. He'll revert to form if given provocation. At this point it bears mention that UT has not won a road game this year. The crowd needs to give Crompton all the noise it can.

With that said, the key to stopping UT may be stopping Monterio Hardesty. A look at his statistics shows that he has had some good games and some pedestrian games. We know that UK's defense has had some success and some striking failure against the run this year. If Hardesty runs us ragged, it will be very tough to win this game.

Looking at UT's recent results, one game sticks out, a 42-17 beatdown administered by Ole Miss. The Rebels success that day had little to do with Jevan Snead, in fact he had a poor game. UT got blown out because Dexter McCluster went bananas. The Rebs WR turned All-SEC caliber running back went for 282 yards on 25 carries with 4 TDs. The key for us tonight, as always, is Cobb-Locke, Locke-Cobb and the big guys up front. These guys need to get it done. Monte Kiffin will have the UT defense in a position to shut us down. It is going to come down to execution and special athletes making special plays. (I've said that a lot recently).

I think to win we will need to open the playbook up a little. I'd like to see Cobb get a couple of throws out of the Wildcat, and Newton get to take some shots downfield. We'll see about that.

Finally, we need to have a big start. We often start slowly in big games, most disappointingly against Vandy in 2008. I don't see how the Cats won't be ready to play tonight, but the key will be channelling the emotion in a positive way. I doesn't always happen like it should. Tonight, I think we will rise to the occasion.

No prediction here. We'll see how it all shakes out.

I'll be in the Orange Lot, finishing up just in time to honor our seniors. Have fun. Go Cats.

Micah and Will

Today I want to pay tribute to two players who've had very different careers.

Micah Johnson will play his final game in Commonwealth tonight. Coming is as one of the most highly regarded linebackers in his high school class, Johnson was the gem of the 2005 recruiting class. His career got off to a slower start than most expected, but he was a part-time starter as a sophomore and rounded into All-SEC form last year as a junior. With the emergence of Sam Maxwell and the presence of some great talent at LB across the SEC, we haven't heard as much about Micah this year. Truthfully, I think he has been playing hurt since injuring his knee against EKU. Still, he is the team's leading tackler, and will go down as one of UK's all-time greats linebackers.

But Johnson's importance to this team cannot be measured in tackles. He is "the guy". Micah is vocal, talented, intense, and looks like a Greek god. When you see him in the tunnel or getting off the bus, it is a reminder that this isn't old Kentucky. He has been an absolute warrior on the field, playing hurt, getting to the ballcarrier in open space, fighting to the whistle. Micah is a foxhole guy. If you are choosing up teams in the street, he is the first pick. If I'm on the field for the Cats in a dogfight, I'd take a lot of comfort looking at Micah and thinking, "That dude has my back". You get the point. Good players have come and gone, but he is one guy who I think really ushered in the new Kentucky era.

My son will wear his #4 jersey for one of the last times today, right before Santa brings him an 18 to wear next year. I am going to miss Micah Johnson.

This week Will Fidler announced that he would be foregoing his final year of eligibility and would participate in Senior Day activities tonight. Hearing that made me feel both strange and sad, though I totally support his decision. With the coaching staff having decided to go with Newton for the remainder of the year, and Hartline returning in the spring, Will was no longer going to compete for playing time. In addition, non-starting seniors all across college football regularly give up their scholarships (at some schools it is more voluntary than others). If that is what he's doing, then it continues a pattern of unselfish behavior that Will should be remembered for. It bears mention that Will will walk in May with a degree.

Not a month ago, I really felt that Fidler should be given the reins at home against Mississippi State. He had outplayed Newton to that point. Lets not forget, he was prehaps a dropped TD pass from leading us to a win against USC after Hartline's injury. The following week, he came off the bench and sparked the team to a TD drive that fueled the comeback.

Decisions were made, probably more about the long run than the team's immediate prospects. In retrospect, going with Newton was the right call. Still, Fidler had every right to believe that he'd get the nod, both in the Auburn game and beyond. As things went, he did not get that call, and has decided to close the book on his UK career. Sports are fickle sometimes. Through it all, Fidler has handled himself with dignity and class, never complaining in the media, always positive and helpful with Newton, and showing up and practicing hard. According to reports, Will is one of the more popular guys in the locker room. It is easy to see why.

My own athletic career taught me that while we cannot all be stars, we can all be part of a winning team. For every Micah Johnson, you need a Will Fidler, someone who accepts his role and contributes in whatever way he can.

I wish Will the best of luck, whether it is as a 1-AA starter somewhere or out in the real world.

For a Saturday Morning

Goof

Something I said earlier this week is inaccurate. As hotly anticipated as this Saturday's game is, it in not the biggest of the Rich Brooks era. Not even close. On October 20, 2007 the defending champion Florida Gators came to Commonwealth at 5-2 and ranked #15 in the nation. Ordinarily, this would be cause for alarm. But walking into the stadium that day, UK was 6-1 and ranked #7, fresh off a win over then #1 LSU. Gameday was broadcast from Lexington that morning, something I thought I'd never see in my lifetime.

There was a lot at stake. In the week leading up to this game, I began to wonder if the Cats could win the SEC East, go to a BCS bowl, maybe, just maybe win out and head to the national championship game. We all did. It all seemed possible. Of course, it was not to be. Tebow and Woodson put on a dual for the ages. The Cats stayed close, but ultimately fell 45-37. The following week, the Cats were embarrassed by a puzzling blowout loss to Mississippi State, and any hopes of a dream year were dashed. I still think if we'd have pulled this game out, the MSU thing would not have happened, and we might have had a shot at the SEC East crown. As it is, UT finished 5-3 in the conference, went to the SEC Championship, and was within a late Eric Ainge pick of beating LSU and going to the Sugar Bowl. It certainly could have been us.

Anyway, we are playing for a lot this weekend, but not quite as much as we were then. Go Cats.

SEC PREVIEWS

This is going to be a great weekend in SEC Football. I wish the games were more spread out, and that at least one was being played today, but oh well. Nearly every game could have some ramifications for the Cats' bowl prospects. Here are some quick notes.

Friday 2:30 PM

Alabama at Auburn

There will be a lot of eyes on this game Friday looking for an upset. Teams like Cincinnati, TCU and Boise can hold out hope that the Tide don't get it done in their rivalry game, then turn around and beat Florida in the SEC Championship next week. How about the possibility that no SEC team plays in the national championship. It has to start with Chris Todd and the Tiger offense. Alabama has been rock solid on both sides of the ball all year. Their offense is going to generate points. If Auburn cannot answer the bell on O, this won't be competitive. As a Cats fan, you want to see Alabama win for two reasons. First, is the outside possibility that the Tide could lose to Auburn and Florida and somehow get left out of the BCS. Less remotely, a win give Auburn an 8-4 season, which could help them leapfrog the Cats, especially with a loss to Tennessee.

Saturday

Noon

Clemson at South Carolina

Everyone is writing off the Gamecocks for dead. It seems like year after year this team gets off to a hot start, then fades. True, they are on a three game skid, and have lost four of five since stealing one from our Cats. But they haven't exactly played patsies. The recent losses were at Tennessee and Arkansas, and home against Florida. Clemson is ranked #18 and red hot. Question: Could they be looking ahead to their already clinched ACC Championship game? I think South Carolina is going to win this game. Which is a shame, because I hate them and would rather not see the Gamecocks in the 7-5 mix.

12:21 PM

Mississippi at Mississippi State

Egg Bowl. Who is the best running back in the state of Mississippi, Dexter McCluster or Anthony Dixon? Can the Rebels end a disappointing regular season on a high note an insure a trip to the Capital One or Cotton Bowl? Mississippi State is struggling, but Ole Miss has not been a world beater, especially on the road. Some intrigue here.

3:30 PM

Florida State at Florida

Tim Tebow's last game in Gainesville. Chance for an upset? 0.0%.

7:00 PM

Arkansas at LSU

Game of the week in the SEC. This is big for both schools. LSU can stay in the hunt for a top 10 finish with a win. Arkansas sits at 7-4 and could very well play its way into the Cotton, Outback, Chick-Fil-A tier with a win. This is probably the biggest game on the board for the Cats. We need LSU to hold on and win this. I'll be checking scores during my down time at Commonwealth.

8:00 PM

Georgia at Georgia Tech

Are the Rambling Wreck for real? They need to beat the reeling Bulldogs the maintain momentum going into the ACC Championship and a possible BCS Bowl. Though they are probably out of the National Title hunt, it is entirely possible that Tech could win out and finish at #2 or #3. I cannot help feeling sorry for Joe Cox, who basically gave a game away on his senior night. It will be interesting to see how he responds. If the Cats cannot take care of business Saturday, it would be good if Tech could hold serve to keep Georgia out of the 7-5 mix.

Happy Turkey Day.

Big Bowl Projection Post

Let's break down, in excruciating detail, the Cats Bowl prospects. We'll start with the SEC rules regarding bowl slotting.

After the BCS bowls, where we assume the SEC will slot two teams, the Capital One Bowl gets the next pick(3). It must pick the school with the next best overall record, or a team within one win of the next best overall record. The Cotton and Outback Bowls (4-5) pick next. Ordinarily the Cotton selects a team from the West and Outback a team from the East. They may choose from the opposite conference, but cannot do so until the other bowl picks. The Chick Fil A (6) then chooses next overall. The Liberty and Music City (7-8) are on equal footing. Each bowl ranks the remaining teams in order of preference. If there is a match among their first pick, that team decides where it goes. Otherwise, each bowl gets its preference. The Independence (9) chooses next, the the Papajohns.com (10) Bowl.

Most people seem to believe, and I agree, that the Cats have a clear shot at the Outback Bowl if they beat Tennessee. If so, we will be 8-4, with the second best overall record in the East. The SEC standings could look like this.

East
1. Florida 12-0, 8-0
2. Kentucky 8-4, 4-4
3. Georgia 6-6, 4-4
4. Tennessee 6-6, 3-5
5. South Carolina 6-6, 3-5
6. Vandy

West
1. Alabama 12-0, 8-0
2. Ole Miss 9-3, 5-3
3. LSU 9-3, 5-3
4(t). Arkansas 7-5, 3-5
4(t). Auburn 7-5, 3-5
6. Mississippi St. 4-8, 2-6

Again, these are likely records, if all the favorites (except UT, which is currently favored by 3 points) win. The only possible wrench would be if Arkansas beats LSU, making both teams 8-4 and 4-4 in the league. The Cotton would then choose between those teams and the Outback would have a real choice to make between UK and the other. I still like our chances. I suppose the same scenario could present itself with Auburn beating Alabama, but that seems more remote. Also, I am not sure that Auburn has as much appeal to the Outback. Anyway, the Outback seems to be the overwhelming likelyhood if we win. Worst case scenario, we would fall one spot to the Chick-Fil-A.

Now, for the sake of argument, lets assume the Cats do not win. If all other favorites hold serve, the SEC East standings look like this:

East
1. Florida 12-0, 8-0
2. Tennessee 7-5, 4-4
3. Georgia 6-6, 4-4
4. Kentucky 7-5, 3-5
5. South Carolina 6-6, 3-5
6. Vandy

So, assuming the BCS gobbles up Florida and Alabama, that leaves Ole Miss for the Capital One and LSU for the Cotton. It would makes sense that Tennessee gets to the Outback. At that point, the Chick-Fil-A (New Year's Eve in Atlanta) is choosing between UK, Arkansas and Auburn, three teams with potentially identical overall and league records. A lot of locals are thinking Chick-Fil-A even if we lose. I'm not so sure. First of all, we were not even on this bowl's radar prior to this week. Secondly, Auburn is a whopping hour and forty five minute drive to Atlanta. Finally, Ryan Mallett is looking more like a sure fire NFL first round arm every week. I think the Razorbacks might be the most sexy pick. But they are not as close as we are. I honestly couldn't say what the Chick-Fil-A officials will do.

Moreover, several teams could improve their lies with wins this weekend. Clearly we should root against potential co-suitors Arkansas and Auburn in favor of their respective foes, LSU and Alabama, two teams who beat us in the pecking order regardless . Just as importantly, we should be rooting like hell against Georgia and South Carolina. They play ranked rivals Georgia Tech and Clemson, respectively. Both are projected to lose and finish the season 6-6, but either could bring itself back into the Liberty/Music City tier with a win. With all this lurking, I believe the Cats' most likely destination with a loss is the Music City Bowl. If things broke right, we could still end up in the Chick-Fil-A. I doubt we will fall below Nashville no matter how it shakes out, but certainly stranger things have happened.

In 2007, the Cats appeared to have a Chick-Fil-A Bowl bid pretty well in their sights even if they lost to Tennessee on the final day of the regular season. The day before, however, Arkansas pulled a big upset against eventual National Champion LSU. This catapulted the Razorback into an unlikely Cotton Bowl bid, driving 8-4 Auburn down into our spot in Catlanta. Lets hope something like this does not crop up.

Of course, the easiest way to avoid this is to take care of business on Saturday. I'll let some outsider's predictions take us out. Go Cats.

ESPN Mark Schlabach
Music City v. Boston College



ESPN Bruce Feldman
Music City v. Florida State



CFN Scout
Outback v. Wisconsin



CBS Sports
Papajohns.com v. South Florida

Sunday Reset

Let me say first of all that last night's win came as a shock to me. I felt going in that we had a chance if we put the things that we'd done well in previous games together. At halftime, however, it seemed we wouldn't come up with that kind of performance. The D looked positively awful, and I was pulling my hair out at the play calling. When we tucked the ball away during the last possession of the half, I wondered outloud if we were really trying to win or just avoid embarrassment.

The second half was one of the stranger 30 minutes of football I can remember. Yes, we played well and made some of our own luck, but Georgia just seemed determined to give us the game. Seriously, how would you feel if you were a Bulldogs fan today? (Aside from feeling like your dog died). What if the Cats had outgained a team 2-1 and lost on senior night by committing four turnovers in the second half, including one right before what seemed like a sure fire tieing touchdown? No way to describe it. An awful game for them and their fanbase.

But enough about the poor Bulldogs, lets talk about the rich and prosperous Cats. Major credit in this game has to go to Sam Maxwell. This year's defense was supposed to be led by three stars. Jarmon never played a snap. Trevard missed half the season and, lets just be honest here, has struggled since returning from injury. Even Micah has been slowed by nagging injuries of his own and been quiet the last two or three weeks. Maxwell is not only the team's second leading tackler, he is second in the SEC in interceptions with five. He was all over the field Saturday, and sniffed out another big INT at crunchtime. Major credit.

Finally, an interesting stat before moving on to where we stand now. UK is +8 in turnover margin on the road this year. We are -7 at home. This obviously goes hand in hand with the results we've been getting. Come Monday, UK is going to have to figure a way to get a roadlike performance in Commonwealth to end the season. Because. . .

Next Saturday's tilt against UT is the most important game of the Rich Brooks era. Examine this with me for a minute. The Cats are playing for what should be a trip to the Outback Bowl. A win makes us 8-4 and second in the SEC East (actually in a tie with Georgia but with a better overall record). Considering what this team has gone through and the fact that they've won 4 of 5 with basically no passing game, an 8-4 year would go down as one of the best coaching jobs in D-1 this season. A New Years Day Bowl for this team would outstrap anything anyone could have predicted. I could also see it sending Rick Brooks off into the sunset in the most satisfying way possible.

Then, of course, there is the opponent. Our losing streak to Tennessee has reached epidemic proportions. Unlike Florida, kicks our ass year after year, UT has been let off the hook several times. We just cannot get the monkey off our backs. Our program needs this win. The rivalry takes on a bit of a new meaning for me now because I hate their coach. Seriously, Lane Kiffin is the guy in your fraternity nobody liked. No one likes losing to that guy. Coaches and history aside, there is probably some genuine bad blood between members of these two teams. What exactly happened this off season at the Royal Lexington Apartments remains a guarded mystery to most of us fans. Once we learned nothing would come of it, it was like it never happened. My guess is that whatever happened is still very real to whoever was involved. It will be nasty down there.

Finally, there is this. This year's team enters the game with almost the same resume as the 2007 Wildcats. Think about that. Woodson, Woodyard, Tamme, Burton, Little, Stevie, Dickie. Those guys. Pulled off a couple of great upsets. Spit the bit against Mississippi State. Took care of business otherwise. Walked into Commonwealth 7-4 against a team they matched up with on paper, with a chance to play football on New Years Day still hanging in the air. It was my favorite year as a UK Football Fan, and really the impetus for starting this blog. Still, I'll never forget the feeling walking out of Commonwealth two years ago after not being able to pull that game out. My guess is Micah, Trevard, Sam Maxwell, Derrick Locke and many others remember that too. The demons are still swirling around. A week from today, they might be gone, replaced with a plane ticket to Tampa, sweet vindication for Brooks and Co. and a win over a monumental jackass.

More this week, especially the potential bowl scenarios. But for now, I think you have to agree, this is one big game.

UGa Preview

The Kentucky Wildcats, they are who we thought they were. As I said at the end of last year and in the preseason this year, this team was going to be slightly better on offense, slightly worse on defense, and was overall going to look a lot like the 2008 team. I think that all of that has largely come true. Especially the part about the 2008 and 2009 teams being similar.

At this point in the season, neither team underachieved, but both had chances to win games that they just couldn't come down with. The biggest bummer for year's team was a 42-38 home loss to Georgia where we did everything but win the game. It took a Montana to Clark'esque touchdown on fourth down by Georgia, followed by a defensive lineman intercepting a Cobb pass with one hand. The loss dropped us to 6-4 and set the stage for the disappointing poopfest that was the Vandy game the following week.

This year, thankfully, the Cats got to Vandy before Georgia and got their sixth win. (Of course the poopfest came two weeks earlier against Mississippi State). Now we can focus on the final two games of the year with little pressure. Lose, and you had the season most people were expecting. Win, and given all the injuries to key players, you've had a pretty good year and will head to a bowl people can be happy about.

Hope springs eternal as it relates to the Georgia game. A.J. Green, the Bulldogs all everything wideout, will miss the contest. And, as John Clay and I have both pointed out this week, the Cats seem to play better football on the road. Clearly, Georgia's defense had trouble with Randall Cobb last year, and we nearly beat them without Derrick Locke and really no passing game to speak of.

Of course, as the week has rolled on, we got sobering news that Cobb was questionable due to a shoulder injury. Today, Brooks announced that Cobb was a game time decision. Cobb's injury will make it hard for Georgia to prepare a game plan. It will also make it hard for Kentucky, though my guess is Brooks knows more than he is saying.

The Cobb injury should make it difficult to write a game preview. But it really doesn't. If Randall doesn't play, the preview is simple. The Cats have literally no chance to win between the hedges without him. We will have to run Locke 20 times, Newton will have to complete passes to receivers besides Larod King, and the defense would have to hold Washaun Ealey and Co. literally in check for probably 40 minutes on the field. It is just too much to ask of a team that is already giving up a sizable talent advantage. Yes, this isn't your father's Georgia team, but they still own wins over South Carolina, Arizona, Arkansas and Auburn and have played exactly one bad game (45-19 road loss to UT) all year.

With Cobb healthy, it becomes manageable. Take away Green, and only one Georgia receiver has caught more than 16 balls. Ealey has come on of late (when he wasn't getting his eye poked out), but Georgia has no superstar back. The Bulldogs have been up and down on defense as well. With Cobb in there, the keys become:

1. The Defense must play like it did at Auburn or in the second half against Vandy. If we start playing ole' or giving up 10 yards at a time, this team has no chance.
2. Newton must make some plays with both his arm and his feet to take some of the pressure off of Cobb and Locke. This includes spreading around the ball on offense to Cobb and Matthews, not just relying on King as a security blanket.
3. A TE must step up and make a play or two in a big situation.
4. Special teams. We've kept our finger in the dyke the last few weeks. If this old issue rears its ugly head, we are cooked.
5. Special players. All this aside, we can win this game if Cobb and/or Locke will us to it. This is why I think Cobb's participation is crucial. A take it to the house pick from forgotten pre-season All-American Trevard Lindley would be nice as well.

We are who we thought we were, but that doesn't mean that for three hours we cannot be a little more. Its on. See you Saturday.

New SEC Projections

East

1. Florida 12-0, 8-0
Sugar


2. Georgia 7-5, 5-3
Outback


3. Tennessee 7-5, 4-4
Chick-Fil-A


4. South Carolina 6-6, 3-5
Papajohns.com


5. Kentucky 6-6, 2-6
Independence


6. Vandy 2-10, 0-8
None


West

1. Alabama 12-0, 8-0
National Championship


2. LSU 10-2, 6-2
Capital One


3. Ole Miss 8-4, 4-4
Cotton


4(t). Arkansas 7-5, 3-5
Liberty


4(t). Auburn 7-5, 3-5
Music City


6. Mississippi State 4-8, 2-6
Out of the soup

Lot of guesswork on the slotting this week. If it shakes out like this, the Outback Bowl will choose between Georgia, UT, Auburn and Arkansas, with everything falling from there. Some interesting games coming up this weekend. LSU and Ole Miss will square off in a likely Capital One Bowl play-in game. Mississippi State is down to its dieing breath heading to Arkansas.


As for the Cats, we once again find ourselves at season's end with a chance to move up. It is a virtual certainty that a 7-5 SEC team will play in the Chick-Fil-A Bowl and a very good chance that one will play on New Years as well. We've managed to avoid the Shreveport hole for the last three years, but 6-6 will almost assuredly land us there or further down (Papajohns.com has the dead last pick) this year.

Chip Cosby and KSR have now made a point I hadn't thought of. Both the Pizza Web Site and Liberty conflict with the UK-U of L basketball game. This may impact our chance at the Liberty. It won't impact the Papajohns.com Bowl unless Mississippi State gets bowl eligible, the only scenario under which that committee gets a choice. Frankly, I see a lot more Cats fans making the trip to Birmingham than Shreveport, big basketball game or no. I've mentioned several times, but it bears repeating, a trip to the Shreve is almost impossible to justify on the homefront.

So hey, lets get some wins, boys.

Road Dogs

Trying to put the Cats' season in some sort of perspective, I am struck by an interesting fact. UK has played at least its three, if not four, best games on the road this year. Overall we are 3-3 at home. Our wins were close over one of the BCS conference's worst teams (that is you, Da Ville), uninspired against ULA-Monroe, and hardly dominant over EKU. In contrast, we've beaten two SEC teams (one of them decent) and owned a lower D-1 team on the road. Even the loss to USC was a pretty fair game for the Cats, one we were arguably a play or two from winning.

At home, we had enormous clunkers against Florida and Mississippi State, and a game but ultimately lacking showing against Alabama.

Last year the Cats spanked Louisville 27-2, eecked out bowl eligibility against Mississippi State and put together an inspired defensive effort in a 17-14 loss to then #2 and undefeated Alabama. All on the road. We've played all those teams at home this year, with very different results. Last year's best home win was the 21-20 comeback over Arkansas. A fun win, but still a narrow one over a team that did not go bowling. There was also an embarrassing loss to Vandy at Commonwealth.

The argument breaks down some when one takes 2007 into account, but only on the surface. True, the home wins against LSU and Louisville were the best of the Brooks era. Still, there was the season killing loss to Mississippi State at home. A great road win against a Cotton Bowl Arkansas squad catapulted the Cats into the top 10. In fact, LSU might be the exception that proves the rule. It is probably the last real good game we've played at Commonwealth.

Throw in three straight bowl wins, and you could make a good argument that we play better away from home.

What I don't know is why. My theories are not very scientific. One, our crowd still lags behind most of the SEC in enthusiasm and noise. Two, we play better in warmer weather. Three, something about the players' road routine is good or something about the home one is bad. Finally, it could all be a big coincidence. I'm not sure which of these is true, but I am interested in your thoughts. I thought it was interesting and worth mention.

Happy Tuesday.

Bowl Eligible

This was another weird one. Derrick Locke led Kentucky in passing yards with 41. On the same vein, Morgan Newton had more yards receiving than passing. The Cats won because they played to win in the second half rather than looking for style points or to prove something. It is clear that Brooks and Joker lost almost all confidence in the forward pass after Newton and Hartline threw identical vomit inducing interceptions in the first half. For Hartline's part, I am concerned that he may have lost any chance at more meaningful snaps with one throw.

Back to the main point, this team's offense has an identity. It is built around two athletes the likes of which we rarely see at UK. Watching Cobb and Locke on the sidelines as the game clock ticked away, theirs was a look of understanding, "we just won this game, and we are both banged up and dog tired". Credit must also go to the O-Line, which is also one of the best we've had.

Finally, Sam Maxwell deserves special mention, anchoring the defense while Micah, Trevard and Corey Peters did not have great games. Sam has made a number of big plays this year, but this might have been his best overall as a Cat.

Of course, the best news is of the bigger picture variety. The Cats are bowl eligible for the fourth time in as many years. It is a nice accomplishment. Barring something very unusual, we will be bowling. I still see the Independence Bowl as a likely destination. Of course, this is bad news on a personal front as it is one game I simply won't go to. I've sliced it up and run the numbers, flights etc. a million different ways, but there is no way I can justify it.

So, how do we avoid the Shreveport hole? One way would be to not win another game, hope that everyone else gets to seven wins and we fall past Shreveport to the Papajohns.com Bowl in Birmingham. As things stand, I expect USC to lose to Clemson on 11/28, making them 6-6 and probably the least attractive Bowl participant.

Better yet, we could find a way to win one of the next two games and get into the mix for a number of bowls. Right now, it doesn't appear the SEC will have more than 3-4 eight win teams. I'd say at least one 7-5 team will play on New Year's Day (as USC did last year).

Personally, I haven't sampled the Kool-Aid yet but I believe we have some chance to win each of the games. Georgia has had a disappointing year, but its only home loss is to Florida. Their only bad loss this year was a 45-19 beatdown by UT back on 10/10. Joe Cox has been inconsistent, but pretty darn good when he's been good. Stud receiver A.J. Green was hurt during yesterday's game against Auburn. Not sure of his status. If we play the way we played against Auburn or in the second half of the Vandy game, we at least have a puncher's chance.

I'll be curious to see which UT team shows up in Commonwealth. I am going to have to assume that UT will beat us until we finally beat them, so I can never feel to confident about that game. Still, UT hasn't won a road game, even during the stretch of the season when it was playing lights out. And no matter how much he has improved, they are still quarterbacked by Jonathon Crompton. So we shall see.

I know nothing about Cobb's shoulder, but word did not today that Hartline will sit the remainder of the regular season. He wasn't ready to play yesterday, that's for sure.

More during the week.

Live Blog for a big game

Cover it Live Saturday at 12:15

Sorry there has not been much substantive content this week.  I am stuck in the Ashland Plaza Hotel this week, which is not particularly Wi-fi or hot water in the shower friendly.  In any event,  I hope that as many readers as possible will tune in with laptop in hand, whether you are able to watch the game or not.  

Pundits' UK Bowl Projections

Here are where other Internet sites have the Cats bowling.

ESPN Mark Schlabach
Independence Bowl v. Missouri


ESPN Bruce Feldman
Music City Bowl v. Florida State


SI Stewart Mandel
Independence Bowl v. Kansas
(Mandel has all the SEC teams in the same spots I do.)

CFN Scout
Papajohns.com v. West Virginia


MSNBC John Tamanaha
Papajohns.com v. West Virginia


CBS Sportsline
Papajohns.com v. Rutgers


Like me, ESPN.com SEC blogger Chris Low does not pick opponents, but he has us in the Independence Bowl. While we are here, Low recently wrote this post touting Randall Cobb as the SEC's most versatile player.

I concur.

Nov 10 Bowl Projections

Without further adieu, my latest bowl projections based on renewed picks for the remaining games.







1. Florida 12-0, 8-0

Sugar



2. Tennessee 8-4, 5-3

Outback



3. Georgia 7-5, 5-3

Liberty



4. South Carolina 6-6, 3-5

Papajohns.com



5. Kentucky 6-6, 2-6

Independence



6. Vandy 2-10, 0-8





West

1. Alabama 12-0, 8-0

National Championship



2. LSU 10-2, 6-2

Capital One



3(t). Auburn 7-5, 3-5

Chick-Fil-A



3(t). Arkansas 7-5, 3-5

Cotton



5. Mississippi State 3-5, 5-7

Out



6. Ole Miss 2-6, 6-6

Music City



A few games this weekend will really clarify the SEC middle tier picture. UT goes to Ole Miss, in a game I have UT winning. (In fact, my standings assume that Mississippi loses out, including a home loss to Mississippi State to end the season.) Ole Miss is actually a four point favorite against UT, so it could go either way. Auburn travels to Georgia and again the home team is favored by less than a TD. I have Georgia pulling that one out but to me it is another coin flip. If both those games fall the other way, the picture changes substantially.



As to the slotting, there are a couple of total guesses. If the standings are as above, the Cotton would be choosing between Auburn, Arkansas and Georgia. With the relative proximity, Gus Malzahn's offense, and Ryan Mallett's cannon right arm, I'd pick Arkansas. Also, assuming it plays out exactly as above, there is a good chance the Cats sneak into the Music City at 6-6. I can see that committee picking Ole Miss, because Jevan Snead was once a Heisman contender and they might make for a more competitive game. On the other hand, the Rebels would have had a ridiculously disappointing year, and the Music City might prefer to rely on Old Faithful and ensure a good crowd. I don't think South Carolina will be an attractive participant unless they manage to beat Clemson in their last game, climbing the ladder to 7-5. They will be at the end of the line otherwise.



Of course, none of this talk means much if we cannot beat Vandy Saturday.

SEC Previews

Quick look at this weekend's games in the SEC:

South Carolina (6-3, 3-3) v. Arkansas (1-4, 4-4). Tough one to handicap. Homestanding Arkansas is a 7 point favorite, which seems high. USC has had exactly one bad game, but seems to have fallen out of favor. Arkansas has one quality win (Auburn), but could virtually punch its ticket to the postseason with a win.

Tennessee Tech (5-3) at Georgia (4-4, 3-3) Safe game between the hedges. TT opened its season with Pikeville College.

Furman (4-4) at Auburn (6-3, 3-3) Auburn takes on the Paladins and former Two-A-Days star Max Lerner, now a junior SS.

LSU (7-1, 4-1) at Alabama (8-0, 5-0) Can the Tigers mount any sort of offense against the Tide? If so, this could be a very competitive game. Given the rest of the slate, this is the game of the week in the SEC. LSU can still get into a BCS bowl and has an outside chance at the National Championship game. But is has to start with a win Saturday. Alabama is rock solid, and has had a week off since its wake up call against UT.

Memphis (2-6) at Tennessee (4-4, 2-3) Oh how I wish I could gaze into the crystal ball and see a gigantic, nail splitting toe stub. But I don't. Pity that.

Vandy (2-7, 0-5) at Florida (8-0, 6-0) Vandy was beating Georgia Tech 31-28 with a minute left in the third quarter last week. This is a cause for concern in Wildcat nation. In Gainesville, not so much. The SEC's only dead man walking is about to take a beatdown.

Northern Arizona (5-3) at Ole Miss (5-3, 2-3) Who made the damned schedule this week, anyway?

I will say this, though. The SEC has five games this week against non-BCS conference teams. Though it is unlikely, that is a lot of chances for someone to spit the bit. Lets hope it isn't us.

Late night thoughts and a couple of links

Quick post on a Wednesday night. Interesting week for a UK Football Fan. We are faced with a must win game against what should be an overmatched opponent in EKU. Losing this game would be Catastrophic, but it isn't likely. Assuming we do win, we face what will be one of the most important UK Football games of the decade at Vandy. Sound melodramatic? Not at all. If this team doesn't get to a bowl because it lost to both Vandy and Mississippi State, we will have coughed up nearly all the momentum we've gained over the past three years. This has to happen. Nothing else is acceptable.

This wasn't supposed to be a rebuilding year. A solid O-line, the starter at quarterback, the team's best athlete and two studs at key positions on defense all returned. Next year, we'll be without Trevard, Micah, Maxwell, Connor, Peters, Jorge Gonzales, Zipp Duncan, Jordan Jeffries and more. That may be the rebuilding year. We need the extra practice and momentum a bowl will provide if we have any hope of moving the program forward in the next 2-3 years.

So, the Vandy game is huge. But so it this one. Because if we don't get it, the whole rest of the season is for naught.

Against this backdrop, there are two ways you can go. And a couple of blogs I follow were kind enough to do so. Truzenzuzex over at A Sea of Blue decides to ignore the chances of losing to Eastern and instead focus on whether we can pick up two more SEC wins. On the other hand, Christopher Johns over at KSR says that the EKU game makes him nervous.

I'm kind of in the middle. EKU is the ultimate trap because it seems foregone, our sixth win cannot come until the following week, and Vandy is always a dogfight. Still, the point on ASOB is a good one. We don't have to play, so we can afford to look ahead. And if we don't win this Saturday, the whole thing is shot to hell anyway. So why not.

Personally, I just hope the team and the crowd show up Saturday. More to come.

New Look

Tonight UK Football Fan got an impromptu facelift. The template change was necessary to accommodate "Cover it Live" software I experimented with while "Desparate Housewives" droned on in the background. I'll be doing a couple of live blogs over the next few weeks. I may give it a dry run on a weeknight with the plan to take on the Vandy game on November 14th and assuming people actually log on and chat with me, the Georgia game the following week.
In a related note, my plans to attend the Vandy game with the whole fam were shot by the 12:21 start. Thanks ESPN. At least the broadcast on the SEC Network will be top notch. Or not. Good excuse to check out my live blog for some Scutchesque commentary.

SEC Bowl/Standings projections

Time for me to eat some crow. Last week I came up with my initial Bowl Projections by predicting the outcome for each SEC team's remaining games, setting final records, and slotting the teams accordingly. I then made the fatal mistake of bragging that I went 16-3 on in conference games from this point forward last year.

This past weekend I went a paltry 1-3, missing on USC-UT, Ole Miss-Auburn and of course, Mississippi State-UK. As a result, there is a lot of movement in this week's picks. The big loser from last week? Take a wild guess. UT, on the other hand, really helped themselves out.

Note: I did not change the outcome of any future games based on last weekend's performances. In the future I might do so, couldn't justify it this time. Teams have been up and down from week to week, and none of these outcomes were exactly shocking.

Still, I figure South Carolina and Ole Miss are most likely to fall from their spots here. Conversely Mississippi State could still get to 6-6 and steal a bid, but it will take a huge effort (must win 2 games with Ala, @Ark and Ole Miss remaining)

Finally, there is a lot more guesswork involved in the bowl slotting this week. If the standings shook out this way, things like fan support, geography and sex appeal come into play for everything from about the Cotton on down.

East

1. Florida, 8-0, 12-0
Sugar

2. Tennessee 5-3, 8-4
Outback

3. Georgia 5-3, 7-5
Chick-Fil-A

4. South Carolina 3-5, 7-5
Music City

5. Kentucky 2-6, 6-6
Pizza Web Site Bowl

6. Vandy 0-8, 2-10
Out of the soup


WEST

1. Alabama 8-0, 12-0
National Championship

2. LSU 6-2, 10-2
Capital One Bowl

3. Mississippi 4-4, 8-4
Cotton

4. Auburn 3-5, 7-5
Liberty

5. Arkansas 2-6, 6-6
Independence

6. Mississippi State 2-6, 4-8
Still not bowling

Post Mortem

I had a nearly perfect day yesterday until about 8:45. Got a workout in, wrote a blog post, ran a couple of errands to stay in the good graces, got the kids dressed up for Halloween, went to a party, handed out candy, watched a pretty good first half of football. Then someone flipped a switch, Anthony Dixon turned into Walter Peyton, Morgan Newton threw a Jared Lorenzen lowlight film pick, and questionable plays were called. A wormhole opened beneath me, and I fell in.

Last night's loss is hard to swallow, more for what it does to our season than anything else. Unlike the earlier loss to USC, where the little things killed us, this was a case of being thoroughly outplayed and outcoached.

UK was outgained from scrimmage 493-308. In fact, MSU gained more yards on the ground (348) than UK did total. We lost the turnover battle 3-2, including the aforementioned pick and a rare mistake by Randall Cobb on a fumbled lateral he didn't fall on.

The Bulldogs beat us by running the same counter play over and over and over. We either couldn't or didn't adjust. This was part of a larger picture of being completely outschemed. Knowing we had to successfully run the Wildcat to win, MSU was clearly ready for it. We didn't adjust by mixing in a few passes. So unsuccessful were we at running the ball from the formation that we abandoned it entirely. This decision could very well have cost us the game.

We trailed 31-24 with a minute left in the third quarter. Mississippi State made only one first down for the rest of the game, yet we managed the clock so poorly that we got only two more possessions. At one point on the final drive we were forced to burn a timeout, which effectively took away our chance at another possession.

In Newton's defense, it is hard to say that the pick he threw on the second to last drive cost us the game. We were on the four yard line, and had he thrown the ball away, we would have likely kicked a field goal. Of course, we never scored again anyway and there is no reason to assume we would have. Also, on second and third viewings, I think Newton was trying to throw the ball away and simply did a poor job of it.

Of course questions are going to be asked. Why wasn't Cobb playing QB when we had first and goal at the 4 in the fourth quarter? Where was the Wildcat on the last drive? These may be valid questions, but they are classic Monday morning quarterbacking.

The most troubling aspect of this game is where it leaves our season. Assuming we beat EKU next week, we will become bowl eligible with a win at Vandy on Nov. 14th. But we are in a completely different position than we would have been had we won this game. Mississippi State now has an outside chance at six wins. If that happens, the SEC could have more bowl eligible teams than slots. Auburn has probably moved ahead of us in the pecking order by knocking off Ole Miss Saturday. Six wins is a ticket to Shreveport or Birmingham or, if everything breaks wrong, home.

There is some good news. Trevard Lindley should be able to return next week for the rest of the season. I suppose there is still a chance Mike Hartline makes it back for Vandy. We need to hope that EKU will be a walkover and Micah, Locke, Cobb etc. can grab some pine early and rest up for the stretch run.

Previews

A couple of links and notes on a lazy Saturday. Tonight is huge. If Kentucky is going to, as Rich Brooks would say, climb the SEC ladder, this is a must win game. The Bulldogs have played several big opponents close, yet they come to Commonwealth with a losing record, an interception prone QB and, well the fact that they are Mississippi State. We are very banged up, granted. But mid-tier SEC teams have to be able to beat Mississippi State at home.

Micah Johnson's status is important. Brooks has said that he is available to play but will not start. This is something coaches do that I've never understood. Yes, he might be well enough to play but not to play the whole game. I get that. But why not start the guy so you can see right away what you will be able to do with him? Not a criticism of Brooks, I am sure that coaches do this for some reason. For what it is worth, Johnson tweeted Thursday that he had no knee pain in practice. (Yeah, I broke down on the Twitter thing. I don't send tweets, but I do follow some strategic people. I suck, I know.)

This week has yielded surprisingly little discussion about our starting quarterback. I guess it is a foregone conclusion that we will go with the three headed monster again. Will Fidler has earned the right to start this game, and I would be more comfortable with he and Cobb at the helm tonight. Newton has a ton of potential, but tonight is not a learning curve kind of evening. Beat Mississippi State and get the freshman more experience next week.

Keep an eye on Danny Trevathan and Sam Maxwell tonight. Without Micah, they'll be tasked with filling up the vacuum of run support. Anthony Dixon and the MSU running attack are potent. Our run defense has not been. We are going to be vulnerable. I have confidence in Ronnie Snead, but he is not Micah Johnson.

For anyone curious, I will be watching the game on TV tonight after hustling the kids home from Halloween goodness. See that kid in that picture up there? You try telling his sister and him that they aren't going trick or treating because daddy is going to a football game. Not happening. If you'll be there tonight, make sure to wear black and cheer loudly for me.

Tonight, I think both teams make plays, and we have trouble stopping the run. A special teams blunder or two could really sabotage a game like this, which should be nip and tuck. In the end, I think Randall Cobb makes one more play than the Mississippi State offense and we get it done. Lets call it Kentucky 24 Mississippi State 21.

A couple of links to take us out:

Today, Chip Cosby has a great article about how big this rivalry has become. Key point: the home loss to Mississipi State in 2007 crushed what could have been an unforgettable season for what I agree was the best team of the Brooks era.

This site's new friends at A Sea of Blue come with a monster post breaking down Mississippi State from every angle. Key point: This game determines whether we have any chance to get above the Music City/Liberty tier of Bowls.

SEC Preview

The plot starts to thicken in the SEC this weekend, as it does in all of college football. A little more on UK tomorrow. Here are a some quick hits on the other SEC games.

12:21 Ole Miss (5-2) at Auburn (5-3)
In handling a game Arkansas 30-17 last week, Ole Miss showed the signs many expeted to see when the season began. Jevan Snead is still throwing picks, though. Auburn is sliding with three straight losses after starting the year 5-0. Now would be a good time to right the ship. The Tigers still have to play Alabama at home and Georgia on the road. For its part, Ole Miss still has a realistic chance at 10-2 and at least a backdoor shot at a BCS Bowl.

3:30 Florida (7-0) v. Georgia (4-3) at Jacksonville, Fl.
The World's Largest Game That Shall Not Be Named. It is an intriguing one. Florida has not played a dominant game since, well, since kicking the crap out of us on September 26th. Georgia has lost two games to very good teams (Okla. St. and LSU) and suffered a head scratching blowout at the hands of Kiffin U. Something tells me Joe Cox and Co. are going to be in this till the end. This isn't a bad team.

7:00 Eastern Michigan (0-7) at Arkansas (3-4)
Think the Razorbacks are safe here. Good thing, because they don't get much slack the rest of the way.

7:30 Georgia Tech (7-1) at Vandy (2-6)
I'd love to think that the SEC is so much better than the ACC that this game will be way closer than it is on paper. I don't. Vandy will be the first SEC team knocked out of bowl contention this weekend.

7:45 USC (6-2) at Tennessee (3-4) in
The Cocks are looking like an elite SEC team but must travel to Knoxville, where they'll face a possibility resurgent UT squad. The Vols shellacked Georgia two weeks ago and were within a blocked field goal of upsetting Alabama last week. Should Tennessee lose, it must close the season 3-1 (and almost assuredly beat the Cats Nov. 28th) to go to a bowl. I cannot call this one. It is the game of the week in the SEC.

8:00 Tulane at LSU
There are worse choices in life than "Am I going stay in New Orleans to watch this game at a bar or drive to Baton Rouge, tailgate and take it all in at Death Valley." If you are an undergrad at Tulane right now please note that I am insanely jealous.

More UK specifics soon.

Link of the Day

If you don't read anything else today, check out this hilarious column by Drew Franklin at Kentucky Sports Radio about the Mississippi State game. Drew goes out of the yard with this one.

Projected SEC Standings/Bowls

In addition to Bowl projections, I've projected the final wins and losses for each SEC team. I did go through every remaining game on each team's schedule and pick a winner. As always, yes I have a responsible, demanding job and yes, this task took quite some time. But, the point is, these standing present a realistic scenario and everything adds up. I went 16-3 picking conference games from this point forward last year. We'll see how accurate this turns out to be.


Records are SEC followed by overall.



EAST


1. Florida 8-0, 12-0
Sugar

2. Georgia 5-3, 7-5
Chick-Fil-A

3. South Carolina 4-4, 8-4
Outback

4. Tennessee 4-4, 7-5
Music City

5. Kentucky 3-5, 7-5
Liberty

6. Vandy 0-8, 2-10
Momma's home cooking.


WEST


1. Alabama 5-0, 8-0
National Championship

2. LSU 6-2, 10-2
Capital One

3. Ole Miss 5-3, 9-3
Cotton

4. Auburn 2-6, 6-6
Papajohns.com

5. Arkansas 2-6, 6-6
Independence

6. Mississippi State 1-7, 3-9
Home for the holidays.

Some notes on this:

There were tough calls on some games. Some assumptions were: UK beats Vandy and Mississippi State, loses its other games; UT beats USC at home; LSU wins at Ole Miss; USC wins at Arkansas. In fact, a number of South Carolina's games were tough to predict. It also has to play Clemson at home on the last game of the season, a game I've called a win. Obviously, I am picking Alabama to beat Florida in the SEC Championship. I am torn about that, though.



The bowl picks are guesswork in a couple of spots. I don't know that the Independence Bowl would not take Auburn over Arkansas. Assuming things end up exactly how I have them, the Music City and Liberty would probably both mark Tennessee first of the teams not snatched up be better bowls, giving them their choice of which bowl to go to. UK would get the other. I assume UT would pick the Music City, since it is right in the middle of the state, but who knows. Other than that, if this is how these teams finish, these are the places they'll go.

Tuesday Reset

A lot to talk about today, which is my way of saying this column will have no central theme.

Lets start with Saturday's game. UK started out just as we all hoped, poised to take care of business. Then the game got, for lack of a better word, kinda weird. Somehow, Cody Wells kept hitting open receivers, getting knocked on his ass, then getting back up to do it again. Our DBs could not make a play in pass coverage, and each of our throwing QBs threw a horrendous pick.

Even the things that went well were weird. John Connor made me wonder if he isn't the best running back on the team. Randall Cobb got interfered with while catching a punt and still ran it back for a touchdown. Rich Brooks went for (and made) two fourth down conversions on our own side of the field. UK desperately just needed to run the clock out on the second half but didn't even try to. Instead, ULM ran nearly the entire third quarter off the clock for us and only managed seven points.

Oh yeah, and ULM got jobbed big time by the clock operator at the close of the first half.

Dichotomies ruled the day. The game was tense but never really in doubt. The Cats did exactly what they had to do but in a manner so unsatisfying it was hard to leave happy. I was freezing cold but the ice in my bourbon and diet coke kept melting.

And then of course, there is The Micah Situation. Watching him limp off in the second quarter I began this internal monologue: "We started the offseason with Micah Johnson, Trevard Lindley and Jeremy Jarmon all back to lead our defense. Jarmon never played a down and is a Redskin, Lindley has missed half the season and there goes Micah who I might not see play again. If this team still gets to 7-5, it is going to be a hell of an accomplishment. It was going to be so sweet but in the end, we effed it all up." (kudos to anyone who comments the movie reference)

Today we learn that Micah has a minor MCL tear and may not be available this weekend. Brooks also reported that Trevard tried to run yesterday, is sore today, and might not be back this weekend as we'd hoped. Hartline is behind where they'd hoped he'd be. Oy vey.

I've softened on the stance I took in the immediate wake of the game. My comment early Sunday morning was that Cobb should be our primary quarterback. There is some logic there since he is clearly the best runner, best thrower and the person the team is most likely to rally behind. In thinking about it more, there are a couple of problems with that. First, he cannot run the ball every down if he plays QB the whole game. He'll die. Secondly, he has proven more effective when used as a change of pace. Still, I am torn.

The point that Cobb is the team's best receiver is not lost on me. However, this seemed more important when Hartline was healthy. The other QBs aren't as capable of getting him the ball, so it isn't as important. For what it is worth, knowing that Cobb will probably take the snaps when we need a score, I think next Saturday should be Will Fidler's turn to start. Newton has struggled, and this game is just too important. Win Saturday, and there will be other chances to spread the wealth. And again, I expect the ball in Cobb's hands when the game is on the line.

While we are here, the last couple of weeks and this past Saturday especially validates the decision to stick with Hartline through the Alabama and Florida losses and on into the USC game. Clearly, Newton was not ready, and as game as he's been, Fidler does not have Hartline's decision making ability.

This weekend will bring the season's most important game to date. This is a game that the Cats need if they are going to have a good season. Mississippi State has an even greater sense of urgency. Sitting at 3-5, having played competitively in nearly every game, the Bulldogs absolutely have to have this game to have any shot at a bowl. Alabama comes to town for them next week. Then come two winnable games at Arkansas, then finishing up with Ole Miss at home in the Egg Bowl. They are still in the hunt but barely, and it will have to start for them at Commonwealth on Halloween.

Bowl projections may come as early as tomorrow. Bottom line, the Cats might be part of a mad scrum of 7-5 teams jockeying for positions ranging from Chick-Fil-A goodness all the way to Shreveport/Bossier City hell. Should be interesting.